French Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2025 (Thursday 29th May)

The only positive from Day 4 is that at least some of the selections were able to return with winners, but this has not been a fun tournament for the selections so far.

Some of the Picks may not have looked like they have stood a chance from the outset, but the frustration has been getting on the wrong end of some of the fine margins.

For instance, Miomir Kecmanovic is going to be wondering just as much as we are as to how he was beaten by Quentin Halys having dominated the Break Point count- he had ten across three games in the third set and was still not able to win it, and it really is a match that was effectively read correctly, but without the luck that is needed.

Jelena Ostapenko missed the cover by one game having taken too long to really take control of her match, while Diana Shnaider then allowed a 4-0 lead to slip in the opening set.

And just in case it feels like only the bounce of the ball that is seemingly going against the selections in the French capital, Casper Ruud is injured and loses twelve of thirteen games played in the final two sets. He had no reason to continue to play when the injury had completely limited his movement, and there is no way you back someone who is injured, but that is the way the cookie crumbles and sums up the poor luck that has been attached to the Picks.

It does make Thursday important and anything less than a winning return may mean a choice has to be made to shut down the Picks for the rest of the event- I would still offer up some thoughts on the matches to be played, but without any units to be attached to them, but it is something to assess after the Thursday schedule is completed.

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Corentin Moutet: It has not been a year to remember so far for Novak Djokovic and the former World Number 1 had been struggling on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open. He skipped Rome after consecutive defeats, but Novak Djokovic made a rare decision to play in Geneva in the week before the start of the French Open to try and rebuild some confidence.

The plan worked with Djokovic winning the title before heading to Paris and he did not need to be at his best to win in the First Round at Roland Garros.

Novak Djokovic may go down as the best player of all time, but he has not always been given love from the tennis watching crowd and certainly not like Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal. That could be the case again in the Second Round with a match against a home player, although Djokovic admitted feeling good being back in Paris having last stepped out here with the Gold Medal win at the Olympic Games.

He is going to be tested by Corentin Moutet who has a style that can take opponents out of their rhythm when performing at his best.

The World Number 73 had not shown a lot of form before reaching the Fourth Round in Rome, but that will have given Corentin Moutet a lift and he was also a relaxed First Round winner here. Last year, the Frenchman had his best run in his home Grand Slam when reaching the Fourth Round and he even took the first set from Jannik Sinner, and so deserves respect, but Novak Djokovic has seen it all in his time on the Tour and that should mean he is well versed in what to expect from Corentin Moutet.

Corentin Moutet will know that his serve is vulnerable, but he is a decent return player and that will give him some hope.

However, it is tough to expect him to stay with Novak Djokovic for long enough to really build towards a potential upset.

They have met twice before on the pro Tour and it is Novak Djokovic who has won both matches, including on an indoor hard court at the Paris Masters. Their most recent meeting came twelve months ago on clay at the Rome Masters and Novak Djokovic's return was devastatingly effective on the day and there is every reason to believe he can come through a competitive first set before really exerting his qualities over this Second Round match.

Alexander Zverev - 8.5 games v Jesper de Jong: If you consider the kind of successes that Alexander Zverev has had at Roland Garros and the fact he was 2-1 up in the Final of the French Open in 2024, you have to say he gets to fly relatively under the radar.

He is also the World Number 3, but it is Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz who lead the expert picks when it comes to selecting a potential Champion and this should be something that suits Alexander Zverev.

Some criticism of his performances over the last month have irked him, but he did win a clay court title in Munich and reached the Quarter Final in Rome. It was something of a surprise to see Alexander Zverev enter the Hamburg tournament last week, but the appearance fee may have persuaded him and the relatively early exit is not something that will bother him too much.

Alexander Zverev moved through the First Round without dropping a set, and he could be capable of covering what is an exceptionally wide line in the Second Round.

He is going up against Jesper de Jong, the World Number 88 who is set to end the French Open at a new career high World Ranking if he can put another win on the board. That is the challenge for the Dutch player who came through the First Round having dropped the first two sets and especially as he now has to face an opponent much stronger than the opener.

During this clay court season, the top players have gotten the better of Jesper de Jong, which is going to be a potential factor. Both Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner were very comfortable winners over him in Barcelona and Rome respectively, and in those defeats, de Jong simply struggled to protect his serve.

Alexander Zverev should know he can put the pressure on having crushed Jesper de Jong in Hamburg last year for the loss of just four games and you have to believe the World Number 3 is aware that he does not want to use too much energy in this first week. That should drive some focus, but it has been a tough tournament for some of the big names and it is up to Zverev to keep his intensity high and break down a player who is still quite vulnerable at the very top level.

Andrey Rublev - 8.5 games v Adam Walton: There has not been a lot wrong with the numbers produced over the last twelve months, but Andrey Rublev has been trying to find the mentality to overcome those moments when things have gone against him. Instead of fighting through and turning things back in his favour, Andrey Rublev has suffered too many defeats in that time and it is a clear reason he has dropped out of the top 10 in the World Rankings.

He only reached the Third Round at the French Open in 2024 and so there is an opportunity in front of the World Number 15 to reverse the declining trend.

No one will doubt the abilities of Andrey Rublev, who reached the Hamburg Final last weekend, but the results have been a little disappointing through this clay court season.

Dropping a set in the First Round is not a major problem for Andrey Rublev, especially as he was able to roll through the next two sets for a comfortable 3-1 success and the Russian is a very strong favourite to win this match against an opponent who has very little clay court experience.

Adam Walton is playing just his seventh clay court match in his career and he was 1-4 going into the French Open.

The draw was a kind one, but Adam Walton could not take anything for granted and still needed all five sets to move through to this Second Round match and a huge challenge that is coming up. His serve has been a vulnerable part of his tennis on the clay courts and Walton will find it tough to deal with the Andrey Rublev serve if the latter is anywhere near the kind of level he can produce.

In all honesty, Andrey Rublev has not been serving that well on the clay courts this season and certainly not to the standard of the last two years. However, he has still been getting enough from that shot to believe he will be the stronger on the day and the returning pressure could end up seeing the higher Ranked player move through the gears into another Third Round in Paris.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 8.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Andrey Rublev - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arthur Fils - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jack Draper - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 3-11, - 8.48 Units (14 Units Staked, - 60.57% Yield)