The business end of any Grand Slam tournament begins in the second week and I do think it is very important for players to try and move through the first three Rounds with as little energy expended as possible.
The 2023 French Open has seemingly made that tougher than ever and there has been a lot of matches that have gone on and one in the early stages of the tournament. Some will blame the heavier ball and the windy conditions, but sixteen names have secured their places in the Fourth Round and sixteen more players are trying to do the same on Saturday.
At this stage it still feels like the potential Semi Final between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic may decide the men's Champion, although a host of contenders are still alive in Paris and those will all feel they are in a position to secure a Slam title.
The 'Big Three' at the top of the WTA Tour are also all still in contention to win the French Open, but I think Iga Swiatek looks a short price, even if she has won two of the last three tournaments played in Paris. The defending Champion has looked strong, but Aryna Sabalenka is in ominous form and I do think she will benefit from being on the other side of the draw to Swiatek and Elena Rybakina.
More twists and turns are to come, but the French Open is set up for a strong conclusion to the second Grand Slam of the season.
The last couple of days has seen the Tennis Picks start slowly before a strong end to the day, but it was slightly different on Friday.
Another winning day has been produced, but the numbers are still tight and I need more to really push this tournament towards a successful outcome for the selections being made.
Friday did not have as many good looking options as Saturday, but all that counts is putting the winners on the board and looking to keep some momentum going into the second week of the tournament.
Holger Rune - 8.5 games v Genaro Alberto Olivieri: Any player will want to build some rhythm and confidence while playing at a Grand Slam, but earning a Bye through one Round can also be hugely beneficial come the business end of the tournament. For one of the favourites a Bye should not be an issue at all and Holger Rune has to be excited about this Third Round match coming up.
He is going to be a big favourite to reach the Fourth Round at the French Open again, but I also think an opponent like Genaro Alberto Olivieri will provide a comfortable match up for Holger Rune to feel his tennis back on the court.
A clay court specialist, Genaro Alberto Olivieri has not really shown a lot of form over the last couple of years on the red dirt while operating at a much lower level than this one. That has made the run through the Qualifiers and into the Third Round a real surprise and Olivieri is going to be rewarded with a new high career World Ranking mark, although he is still someway out of the top 100.
The draw has been a kind one for Genaro Alberto Olivieri, but nothing has come easy for him and now he has to play one of the top talents on the Tour and someone who is going to genuinely believe he can win the French Open title. I think there will be a lot of pressure on the Olivieri serve, which he holds at 67% on the red dirt prior to this Grand Slam tournament beginning and those matches have been played against players that have been Ranked outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings too.
Holger Rune has broken in 28% of return games played on the clay courts in 2023 and that mark moves to 31% when considering opponents outside of the top 50. The Dane's return only backs up what is a very strong serve and I do think he is going to be able to cover a wide handicap mark against an opponent that is not really going to try and change his approach, but who will try and out-rally Rune from the back of the court.
That is a tall task for the top players, but for Genaro Alberto Olivieri it feels like next to an impossibility and I think Holger Rune makes serene progress through to the Fourth Round.
Genaro Alberto Olivieri dropped serve six times in the Second Round and I expect Holger Rune to earn at least as many breaks of serve in this match, which should lead to a relatively routine win if the top ten player serves even at 80% of the level he can reach.
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Frances Tiafoe: The early defeat suffered by Daniil Medvedev has opened up the bottom half of the men's draw, but it might have really benefited the winner of this Third Round match.
While Casper Ruud and Holger Rune are on a collision course at the Quarter Final stage, the winner of this match between Alexander Zverev and Frances Tiafoe is likely going to be a big favourite to make it through to the Semi Final. They should be the fresher player in any Semi Final assuming the Rune-Ruud match up takes place and is as tough as it was twelve months ago and that could give Zverev/Tiafoe a big opportunity to reach the Final.
Both of these players have impressed in the French Open, but it should be noted that the level of competition certainly picks up in this Third Round match up. Out of the two, I do think the Frances Tiafoe wins have been more impressive, but the American has not really shown a deep love for the clay courts in his career and he is 0-2 when playing top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface this season.
Alexander Zverev has yet to drop a set and looked very impressive in the Second Round, but he is still searching for his best tennis since the injury suffered in Paris twelve months ago. There have been signs of that returning during the clay court season and it should be noted that three of the five losses Alexander Zverev has suffered on the red dirt have been against top ten Ranked opponents.
One of the other defeats was to Nicolas Jarry, who is playing at an extremely high level, and Alexander Zverev's numbers against players Ranked outside the top ten have been very strong on this surface this season.
The head to head is also very much in Alexander Zverev's favour, although Frances Tiafoe is a much improved player since these two last met in October 2021. Those previous meetings have been on the hard courts in the main and that is a surface that Tiafoe enjoys more than the clay courts and I do think the lower Ranked player can win this match in three or four sets.
Frances Tiafoe rarely lets a match get away from him and I have to respect that, but Zverev on a clay court should have the big serving to keep the match in his own control. While Frances Tiafoe has been serving well in this tournament, I think he will be challenged by the Alexander Zverev return and the 28% of return games played against Tiafoe which have led to a break of serve.
These two did play a memorable five setter at the US Open in 2019, but I expect Alexander Zverev to have more of an edge on the clay and he should be able to win with a bit more room to spare.
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Daniel Altmaier: It was the biggest win of his career, but Daniel Altmaier is going to have to go some to back up the victory over Jannik Sinner.
After dropping the third set 6-1, it did look like Daniel Altmaier's race had been run, but he came from 2-1 down in sets to win the match, although it cannot be a good thing that he had to play for four minutes short of five and a half hours against a quality opponent like the Italian.
Winning will always give a player confidence, and Altmaier will be heading back towards the top 50 of the World Rankings and will crack that mark if he can reach the second week in Paris.
Like so many in the past, backing up a career best victory like the one produced in the Second Round is going to be the challenge for Daniel Altmaier and he is going to have spent a lot of physical and emotional energy already in this tournament. Now he has to face a former top ten player and one who has been comfortable on the clay courts and played a solid 2023 season when you don't consider the matches against the likes of Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz.
Grigor Dimitrov lost both of those and was beaten by eventual Geneva Champion Nicolas Jarry last week, but he has won plenty of matches on the red dirt and has not nearly needed the same effort as his opponent to win his two matches played in Paris.
I do find it hard to trust Dimitrov because of a relatively weak return game on the clay courts, which is a disappointment for those who believed the Bulgarian was going to be amongst the very best players on the Tour. On his day he can be, but I think Dimitrov can find it tough to cover handicap marks like the one set for this match with a limited return.
However, you have to believe that fatigue is an issue for Daniel Altmaier and it should allow Grigor Dimitrov to get himself going in this match.
If the lower Ranked player is not able to generate the kind of pace he would expect, Grigor Dimitrov may have one of his better return games and I think that shows up on the scoreboard. He has only reached the second week at the French Open once before, and even that was in the tournament played in the Autumn during the Covid impacted 2020 Tour, but Dimitrov should be able to work his way into a position to progress in three or, more likely, four sets.
Daniel Altmaier had lost four clay court matches in a row against top 50 Ranked opponents before the upset of Jannik Sinner, but I don't think he will have enough in the tank to back that one up.
Other Selections: It is a busy day with the Third Round concluding at Roland Garros before the tournament moves into the second week.
Matches will become more competitive with the higher Ranked players that are making their way through the draw.
I am anticipating relatively straight-forward wins for Nicolas Jarry and Casper Ruud, but I also think surprising names like Thiago Seyboth Wild and Tomas Martin Etcheverry can earn wins over higher Ranked opponents who have perhaps not been as happy on the clay courts.
Iga Swiatek should have a third big win at the tournament, although she will know that there is room for improvement despite losing just eight games through the first two Rounds.
Other contenders like Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur should be able to come through against confident opponents, while Beatriz Haddad Maia is the stronger clay courter compared with Ekaterina Alexandrova and can show that.
One underdog that looks to be a live player in the Third Round is Lesia Tsurenko, even if she is going up against one of my favourite WTA players Bianca Andreescu.
The big WTA match of the day features Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva and these two could be competing with one another for big prizes over the course of the next decade. The first concern for both is getting closer to the 'Big Three' on the Tour, but this is a fascinating match and perhaps the 'coming out' party for Andreeva.
However, I still think Gauff deserves a bigger edge than the layers are giving her and the 2022 Runner Up can just remind people of her own special talent with a good Third Round win.
MY PICKS: Holger Rune - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thiago Seyboth Wild - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Martin Etcheverry - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
French Open Update: 24-18, + 4.14 Units (84 Units Staked, + 4.93% Yield)
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