The Women's Final at the French Open was set on Thursday and it features the World Number 1, despite a slight second set wobble, facing Karolina Muchova who has continued to surprise with a second top 10 win in the tournament.
You have to make Iga Swiatek a big favourite, but she has not been as dominant in the last couple of Rounds as earlier in Paris and there have been one or two nerves at big moments, which has been surprising considering Swiatek is a multiple time Grand Slam Champion.
I do think she will have a bit more in the tank and it would need a massive upset for Iga Swiatek to be beaten on Saturday, but the attention turns to the men's Semi Final matches on Day 13.
The first of the two Semi Final matches has to be one of the most anticipated tennis matches in 2023 when Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic finally meet in a Grand Slam. The winner is going to be a big favourite to win the French Open on Sunday, but more on the selection below.
I have been hugely frustrated by the last couple of days and the performance of the Tennis Picks.
The margins have been tight, but I have been on the wrong side of those and it has been a really poor end to the tournament.
The one positive is that the number is still in the black, but I need a solid end to the week to ensure a second Grand Slam of 2023 ending with a decent return.
Casper Ruud v Alexander Zverev: He has long been one of the better clay courters on the Tour and Alexander Zverev's most consistent Grand Slam results have come in the French Open. Some will point out that his very best result has been at the US Open when he was so close to winning a maiden Grand Slam title, but Alexander Zverev has reached the Quarter Final in Paris five times and this is the third season in a row that he is playing in the Semi Final.
No one will forget what happened to the German in the Semi Final last year when a devastating injury in a very close match against Rafael Nadal cost him several months of his career. Even in the build up to this year's French Open, Alexander Zverev had been struggling for the consistency on the clay courts of previous years with the confidence perhaps not as strong going into Roland Garros as it has been.
Winning five matches here will have rebuilt some of that shattered confidence and Alexander Zverev is looking to push ahead into his first French Open Final. The challenge is a tough one in the Semi Final as he faces Casper Ruud, the Runner Up twelve months ago and a player who also reached the US Open Final last year before coming up short against Spaniards Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz.
This only the fourth Grand Slam in which Casper Ruud has reached the second week, which is a massive surprise all things considered, and he has developed into one of the stronger clay court players on the Tour himself. The manner of his win over Holger Rune in the Quarter Final should have given the Norwegian a huge boost of confidence, while he has the mental advantage of finally beaten Alexander Zverev on the Tour in their last meeting in Miami in March 2022.
Casper Ruud admitted himself that he has not enjoyed the most productive build up to the French Open, while his numbers are stronger for the fact he has largely only been playing lower Ranked players. That is highlighted by the fact that his win over Holger Rune is only the second match against a top 20 Ranked opponent on the clay in 2023 and he has split those matches (the other ending in a loss to Rune in Rome), while Casper Ruud only holds a 15-14 all time record against top 20 Ranked opponents on clay courts.
Last year he did finish with a 5-3 record in those matches and two of those defeats were to Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, but Casper Ruud will have to lift his tennis again if he is going to have a second straight shot at winning his maiden Grand Slam in Paris.
It does feel like it could be a good time to face Alexander Zverev who had lost all three top 20 matches on the clay before beating Frances Tiafoe in the Third Round. The performances in Paris have been solid, but there have been one or two signs that Alexander Zverev has perhaps peaked already in the tournament and that has been displayed with weakening service numbers.
In saying that, Casper Ruud has also not convinced behind his serve in this tournament and he can be grateful for some fortune on the Break Points in the wins over Holger Rune and Nicolas Jarry.
I don't think anyone is surprised that this is a match in which the layers are finding it very difficult to separate the two players, but I did think Casper Ruud should be going into the Semi Final as the favourite.
We know the capabilities of Alexander Zverev to serve very big, but in each of his last three matches I think he has just come off the boil at times and that could be dangerous against someone like Casper Ruud. The Norwegian has won plenty of big matches over the last twelve months compared with Alexander Zverev and that could play a mental advantage for Casper Ruud in key moments of this Semi Final.
This is going to be close and competitive, but Casper Ruud might just be a little too solid on the day and can edge his way past Alexander Zverev as the underdog.
Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 games v Novak Djokovic: There is little doubt that the match most wanted to see in the men's tournament at the French Open was between the top two players on the Tour.
The draw meant this could not happen in the Final with Novak Djokovic the World Number 3 after Wimbledon was stripped of its Ranking points last year, but he has reached the Semi Final at the French Open again. The World Number 1 and top Seed Carlos Alcaraz has done the same and this is the first time these two players will be meeting in a Grand Slam, which is quite remarkable seeing as they have combined to win the last three Slams played.
The winner is very much going to be the favourite on Sunday, but both Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic will have been mentally preparing for the ultimate test that the other will provide on Friday in the big Semi Final of the day.
My immediate thought is that Novak Djokovic is an absolutely massive price considering what we know about the Serb- I would be surprised if he doesn't know that he is a significant underdog and that will be an inspiration to him.
However, it is a price that I can't really get involved in and that is because of the standards that Carlos Alcaraz has set at the French Open and throughout this clay court season. The upset loss at Rome will not be remembered when you put up the title wins in Barcelona and Madrid and Carlos Alcaraz has brushed aside all opposition in Paris without breaking a sweat.
Carlos Alcaraz had won at least 50% of his return points in each of the first four wins at the French Open and that number 'dipped' to 47% in the Quarter Final destruction of Stefanos Tsitsipas. Only a loss of concentration in the third set of that straight sets win saw his return numbers fall below 50% of points won for the first time in this Grand Slam and I do think the talented youngster will make things very difficult for Novak Djokovic.
It will mean Novak Djokovic needs to be on his game when it comes to the serve and he has shown in this tournament that he is getting plenty out of this side of this tennis. The serve kept him in his Quarter Final against Karen Khachanov after a slow start and Djokovic can ill-afford another to give Carlos Alcaraz any more confidence on the court.
And as strong as a return player that Novak Djokovic has been throughout his career, you do have to wonder if he has enough to deal with the way Carlos Alcaraz has been protecting his serve on the clay courts this season. The Spaniard has held 84% of his service games played against top 20 Ranked opponents prior to the French Open and in Carlos Alcaraz' wins over Lorenzo Musetti and Stefanos Tsitsipas, he has won at least 69% of service points played and only dropped serve three times as he has made comfortable progression at Roland Garros.
These two players have met just once before and that was on the clay courts of Madrid thirteen months ago- on that occasion they played out three tight, competitive sets in a match that was eventually won by Carlos Alcaraz and the Spaniard did have an edge on the return on that day.
My feeling is that we are going to see that happening in this Semi Final and I do think the clay courts will suit Carlos Alcaraz and his game compared with Novak Djokovic.
It is going to sound like a bizarre statement to make considering how good Djokovic has been on the clay, but I think he has not quite had the same impact in the last fifteen months. Anyone who has won the French Open twice before should be respected and Novak Djokovic is still playing about as well as anyone, but perhaps not as well as Carlos Alcaraz who looks to be the player to beat on this surface right now.
A player like Novak Djokovic is not going to be worried about the raw numbers, but I can't overlook how much stronger Carlos Alcaraz has looked on the clay in 2023 and here at the French Open. The 22 time Grand Slam Champion will have his moments, but I do think some will feel this is a 'passing of the torch' kind of moment with Carlos Alcaraz doing enough to win this one in four sets and that should see him cover this handicap mark.
Novak Djokovic is 6-5 in French Open Semi Finals in his career and his losses have been against Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem. His experience will mean he is unlikely to allow Carlos Alcaraz to have anything easy, while the latter is just 3-3 against top 10 opponents in Grand Slam events and was beaten in four sets by Alexander Zverev here at the French Open in the Quarter Final last season.
That does provide some pause for thought, but Carlos Alcaraz had not won a Grand Slam title before losing to Zverev and his level has gone up from 2022.
I don't doubt that Novak Djokovic will be pumped up to make a statement, but it feels like it is Carlos Alcaraz' time and he can move a step closer to a second Grand Slam title with an important win on Friday.
MY PICKS: Casper Ruud to Win @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
French Open Update: 38-31, + 1.98 Units (138 Units Staked, + 1.43% Yield)
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