I did have Holger Rune down to cover in his Second Round match against Gael Monfils, but the veteran pulled out of the tournament with an injury just a day after his huge fightback against Sebastian Baez.
That can only be good news for Rune backers though with the Dane in the bottom half of the draw and not having to go through what could have been an emotionally draining match against an opponent who would have been firmly backed by the home crowd in the Night Session at Roland Garros. Instead Holger Rune can begin to prepare for his Third Round match and I do think he is going to be very difficult to beat at this tournament.
While he is resting, the remainder of the Second Round is set to be played in warm, windy conditions in Paris on Thursday.
I had a mixed Wednesday with a really poor start to the day looking like it was going to lead to a poor set of results.
Two players won sets 6-1, but failed to cover, and I did think it was going to be tough to come away with a winning return. However, the later matches largely went in my favour and only a poor third set from Andrey Rublev prevented the afternoon sweep from really pushing the numbers into a positive position early in the French Open.
Another really busy day is coming on Thursday with a huge amount of Second Round matches to get through. You can read my selections below as I look for a better return to really get this tournament moving in the direction I want, but we all have to understand it is a process and nothing will come quickly in a sport with such fine margins on any given day.
Casper Ruud - 7.5 games v Giulio Zeppieri: There are some five set matches that are very difficult to overcome in terms of the time and effort spent on the court, but Giulio Zeppieri was on the court for a relatively comfortable three hours seventeen minutes in his First Round win. It is an important one for the young Italian southpaw and one that could take him closer to his career best World Ranking mark, but the Second Round brings a huge step up in class.
The bottom half of the draw has already lost the World Number 2 Daniil Medvedev and both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz are in the top half so every player in this section has to be feeling like a big opportunity is in front of them. Right at the head of the line will be Casper Ruud who finished Runner Up to Rafael Nadal here twelve months ago and has long been at his very best on the clay courts.
He had a comfortable First Round win over Elias Ymer and Casper Ruud is a big favourite against Giulio Zeppieri who has struggled in his career when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts. Credit has to be given to any player who has taken a set from Carlos Alcaraz as Zeppieri did in Umag last July, but the Italian was well beaten by Hubert Hurkacz at the French Open last year and he is not nearly as comfortable on the red dirt as Casper Ruud.
Giulio Zeppieri has a decent serve, but it is not one that is going to be massively concerning to Casper Ruud, even if the lefty approach is one that players have to get used to.
However, Casper Ruud is someone who seems to enjoy playing left handed players and has won thirteen of his last fourteen against southpaws on the clay courts with the exception being the loss to Rafael Nadal in the French Open Final last year. In all fourteen of those matches, Casper Ruud has held 86% of his service games and has broken in just shy of 29% of return games played, while those numbers move up to 89% and 34% when considering opponents that are Ranked outside of the top 50.
It should be noted that this has not been the clay court season that Casper Ruud would have expected from himself, and he has had some disappointing defeats which may play on the mind if this one is close.
That is a concern with a big mark to cover, but I do think Casper Ruud will largely control the match and Giulio Zeppieri is still learning when it comes to playing the very best players on the Tour. The Italian will make a set difficult, and perhaps even two sets, but Casper Ruud can take a significant chunk out of the handicap with one strong set and I do think he will be able to do that.
Giulio Zeppieri has been broken in 26% of the service games played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and has broken in 17% of return games. This will be a match where the experience of Ruud should be too much and I expect the Norwegian to continue his path towards the second week in Paris without too many issues.
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Alex Molcan: Anyone who was tuning into the French Open Semi Final between Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev twelve months ago would have seen a very closely contested match in which the latter was looking the stronger player as they entered a second set tie-breaker.
You cannot say with any certainty as to how the match was going to play out, but it was sickening to see Alexander Zverev suffer an injury that cost him the remainder of the 2022 season. After a long lay-off, it is no surprise that the former World Number 2 has struggled to just regain his intensity on the court and another drop in the World Ranking is expected at the end of the French Open where he is defending significant points.
However, there have been one or two signs that the German is getting back on the right track and his form on the clay courts has been encouraging over the last couple of months. Of course Alexander Zverev expects to compete with the very best players on the Tour on this surface, but it will take a bit of time before he is winning those matches.
Overcoming the mental demons to win his First Round match in Paris will help and Alexander Zverev is a Seed in Roland Garros which means he can work his way into the tournament. A straight sets win over Lloyd Harris has given Zverev some time to just build a rhythm and it should be noted that Alexander Zverev has a very impressive 9-2 record when facing players Ranked outside of the top 20 on the red dirt this season.
He faces another of those in the Second Round when seeing Alex Molcan across the net and it has been a mixed year on the clay courts for the player who reached the Third Round at Roland Garros last year. In that Round, Alex Molcan was well beaten by Novak Djokovic and he has lost all three matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts in 2023 and without being able to get a foothold on the return of serve.
I think that is going to be the case in this Second Round match and that puts pressure on Alex Molcan to serve at a high level to try and remain competitive.
A straight sets win in the First Round will have given Molcan a boost in confidence, but this is a significant step up from Hugo Gaston and even Alexander Zverev in his current form should have too much for the Slovakian.
Iga Swiatek - 7.5 games v Claire Liu: Straight off the bat you have to say this is the kind of handicap mark that would take one or two mistakes from the favourite and become impossible to cover.
Throw in the additional factor of Iga Swiatek only just returning from an injury and it might make one or two nervy about backing her.
That was certainly the case in the First Round when the defending Champion was asked to cover a line which was one game higher than this one and it was far too big for me to consider. Iga Swiatek started slowly, which is perhaps not a surprise after having to retire mid-match in Rome, but by the end of the match the World Number 1 was rolling confidently through to the Second Round.
Now Iga Swiatek faces an opponent in Claire Liu who has not really had a lot of success on the clay courts and certainly not when playing a two time French Open Champion. While Claire Liu did pile up plenty of wins on the red dirt in 2021 and 2022, it should be noted that she is just 8-14 against top 100 Ranked opponents on the surface in her career and 3-6 when only focusing on top 50 Ranked opponents.
Her sole previous match against a top 20 Ranked opponent on a clay court ended in a defeat, while Claire Liu will have to deal with the memory of a painful experience against Iga Swiatek.
Earlier this season they met on the hard courts of Indian Wells, a surface that Claire Liu will enjoy more than the clay courts, and Iga Swiatek lost just a single game.
It is unlikely to be as routine as that, but Swiatek has been able to overwhelm opponents on this surface and the feeling is that she can restrict Liu to four games in this one.
Other Selections: Another busy day is on the cards and I will have a few thoughts on some of the other selections that I have made.
I am not always keen on backing players off the kind of upset that Thiago Seyboth Wild produced in the First Round, but he is a very strong clay court player and I do think he can back that up against the veteran Guido Pella. Both players needed five sets in the First Round, but Pella has been struggling to rediscover the consistency he once had and I do think Seyboth Wild is a progressing player, especially on the clay courts.
My expectation is that the likes of Borna Coric, Francisco Cerundolo and Andrea Vavassori can all progress in three or four sets in their Second Round matches, while Jannik Sinner has all of the qualities to make relatively straight-forward work of a dangerous Daniel Altmaier.
Nicolas Jarry has a poor return game, which makes him vulnerable, but I do think the clay court specialist can get the better of Tommy Paul who has not really been able to string the wins together on this surface.
The WTA matches have been harder to read in the early Rounds of the French Open, well as far as my Picks are concerned anyway, but I do think those I have selected have solid chances of progressing as favourites.
I was very close to adding young star Mirra Andreeva to my selections, but I think Diane Parry can show off her own potential and keep that one competitive in front of her home supporters. In saying that, I do think Andreeva is one of those players that could be a much bigger favourite in matches like this one as she builds her experience in the years ahead.
MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrea Vavassori - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thiago Seyboth Wild - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
French Open Update: 12-10, + 0.72 Units (44 Units Staked, + 1.64% Yield)
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