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Friday, 9 June 2023

French Open Tennis Day 14 Pick 2023- Women's Final (June 10th)

I've been a big Tennis fan for a long time, but even I was pretty shocked by what I saw in the first of the men's Semi Final matches on Friday.

Novak Djokovic winning a Grand Slam Semi Final is never going to be a surprise and the Serb deserves a lot of credit for his performances in Paris even when not quite looking at his best.

However, the 22 time Grand Slam Champion looked to be in a very difficult position as he fell behind in the match for the first time at 1-0 in the third set and Djokovic soon found himself 15-30 down on serve.

Carlos Alcaraz had been getting the fans behind him between the second and third set as Novak Djokovic took his time off the court and the younger player looked to be on course for a second Grand Slam Final in three Slam tournaments.

And then he was afflicted by cramp.

It was the harshest of learning experiences for Alcaraz who was in such pain that he allowed Novak Djokovic to have a break of serve so he could get some immediate treatment just after Djokovic had held serve. He lost nine games in a row before holding serve at the end of the fourth set and Carlos Alcaraz was merely a shell of himself in the eventual 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1 loss.

Credit has to be given to Novak Djokovic for keeping him out there, but I think the cramping had a lot more to do with Carlos Alcaraz' desire to win this big match rather than anything physical that the former World Number 1 was putting him through. It reminded me of some of the early losses Djokovic had himself in his career when some believed he would 'fake' injuries to retire from matches when they were not going his way.

There is no doubt the Spaniard will come again, but he may want to look across the net and try and take a leaf out of the Novak Djokovic book- once perhaps considered someone you could wear down, Djokovic is a machine these days and Carlos Alcaraz will want to be considered the same.

I do think a lot of people will respect Alcaraz for finishing the match, but it was a remarkable ending to his clay court season and his team will be working around the clock to try and work out what exactly happened and how to prevent it happening again.


Novak Djokovic will be the favourite on Sunday, but I am still not sure he is feeling at 100% having had a medical time out for the second time in the French Open. However, if he wins the Slam and ultimately moves ahead of rival Rafael Nadal, the Serb will head to Wimbledon as a big favourite to match Margaret Court's all time record.

And after all of the Covid Vaccine issues of the last couple of years, Novak Djokovic could potentially be heading back to the US Open with another shot at winning the calendar Grand Slam, an achievement that would end any argument for the 'Greatest of All Time' if there is still an argument to be had.


The opponent who will be facing Novak Djokovic for the French Open title is Casper Ruud and the Norwegian must be wondering when he will catch a break as he looks to win a maiden Grand Slam title of his own.

This is the third Grand Slam Final in twelve months, but Casper Ruud will be facing Novak Djokovic after losing to Rafael Nadal here in Paris in 2022 and to Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open Final later in the same year.

He was much more competitive in the second Grand Slam Final having struggled to compete with Nadal in Paris (like so many others have done) and Casper Ruud will be hoping his experiences will help him as he tries to stop Novak Djokovic setting a new mark in the men's game for Grand Slam titles won.


That is a Final that will take centre stage on Sunday, but the Women's Champion has to be crowned on Saturday.

One of the favourites has worked her way through to the Final, but Karolina Muchova may be the story in what has been a tremendous Grand Slam tournament for the Czech player. It should mean a better draw at Wimbledon and the US Open, where Muchova is usually more effective than on the clay courts, but this is a big opportunity to win a Grand Slam and I expect her to give her all.


Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Karolina Muchova: The French Open Women's Final features Iga Swiatek for a third time in four years and the World Number 1 is a significant favourite to win the title for a third time too.

After a less than impressive second set in her win over Beatriz Haddad Maia in the Semi Final, I did have a feeling that Swiatek was playing with one or two nerves. However, that was a kind of opponent who has the power and temperament to try and be very aggressive through her mistakes and I think that did rattle Iga Swiatek somewhat.

It is not expected to be the same kind of match for her on Saturday against an opponent like Karolina Muchova who will look to use variation in her tennis, rather than overwhelming power. That could suit the World Number 1 and I think Iga Swiatek has a big edge over Karolina Muchova on this surface.

You do have to respect Muchova who has had a couple of upsets under her belt in her six wins in Paris at a tournament you would not really expect the Czech player to have her best tennis. The three hours plus spent on court on Thursday is tough for Karolina Muchova, who looked absolutely fatigued when trailing 5-2 in the final set before somehow pulling the victory from the jaws of defeat.

The Czech player served well in the win over Aryna Sabalenka, but she was able to play all of the big points really effectively and that may be more challenging against the defending Champion. Unlike Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek is unlikely to make a host of Unforced Errors to give Karolina Muchova an easy exit from any game where the pressure builds.

In saying that, Muchova will feel she can get a little more out of her return game in a match like this one and there is nothing to lose for the underdog who was almost off the Tour permanently with injuries.

Generally speaking, Iga Swiatek has looked after her serve and the Semi Final was a match against an aggressive return player. I am not sure Karolina Muchova will able to replicate the Beatriz Haddad Maia game plan on this side of the court and it should make Swiatek feel a little less tense than she was a couple of days ago.

Karolina Muchova has beaten Iga Swiatek in their last two matches, including on a clay court, but the last of those was back in 2020. The World Number 1 is a much improved player from those days and I do think she has had the much superior numbers throughout this tournament, although the French Open has been a little unpredictable at the business end of the event.

Underdogs have actually been thriving both straight up and in the handicap mark and that has to be respected, but I do think Iga Swiatek will have the majority of Break Points. That is the start of a winning effort on any tennis court and I do think the experience of Swiatek in Grand Slam Finals may also be a factor as she picks up a third French Open title in four years.

As I said a couple of days ago, Karolina Muchova is rarely beaten easily, but I do think she has had to invest a lot more physically and mentally in this tournament run than her opponent already.

At some point that has to be an issue, and it almost was in the Semi Final, and I think Iga Swiatek can play solid enough tennis to just pull away for a solid win. The Pole has dropped just nine games in the four previous sets played in the French Open Final and she may have enough to secure a good win over a tough opponent in the 2023 edition.

MY PICK: Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 39-32, + 1.98 Units (142 Units Staked, + 1.39% Yield)

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