Handling the occasion is as much a factor as the ability to hit a ball over a net and I do think that is where the two Grand Slam Champions left in the women's tournament have an edge over Semi Final opponents and look on course for a big Final on Sunday. Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka have won the last two Grand Slam tournaments and are the top two Ranked players in the World with the winner of the tournament going into Wimbledon with the top Ranking next to their name.
Overlooking Karolina Muchova and Beatriz Haddad Maia would be a mistake, but the top two Seeds are big favourites and it is hard to make a case to oppose them from what we have seen in the French Open so far.
We also have a very good looking Semi Final line up to look forward to on Friday in the men's tournament and most will be anticipating the huge showdown between Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, but I don't think either Casper Ruud or Alexander Zverev will mind too much about that.
It was the worst day of the two weeks by some distance on Wednesday with all four selections failing to get over the line- I should have known it was going to be a tough day as soon as Ons Jabeur failed to take her Break Point chances at the end of the second set, which would have given her the chance to serve for a place in the Semi Final and for the cover, but that was just one of the small margins that ended up hurting on the day.
Alexander Zverev missed out on a 0-40 position to close out the third set of his match, which would have put him in a strong position to cover, while Holger Rune failed to turn up for an hour and wasn't quite able to climb the mountain.
The day hurt for the Picks, but the tournament is still in a profitable position with four days to go and a chance to get the numbers moving back in a positive direction.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Karolina Muchova: This is going to be a very interesting Semi Final with two players trying to impose contrasting styles on the other as they look to earn a place in the Final of the second Grand Slam of the 2023 season.
Most fans will know all about the power that Aryna Sabalenka possesses and the World Number 2 is going to want to overwhelm any opponent that steps on the court with her. It has been a telling factor in her wins so far in Paris and Sabalenka is a very comfortable clay court player, even if the assumption is that the faster surfaces would be her favourite.
Her game plan is going to be pretty easy to figure out, but stopping Aryna Sabalenka from doing what she wants on the court is a completely different proposition. It has proven too much for her opponents so far this week, but Karolina Muchova may be able to head into this Semi Final feeling her slice and dice style could at least disrupt the higher Ranked opponent.
This has been a very strong tournament for Karolina Muchova who was Unseeded when it began, but who will be back inside the top 20 of the World Rankings when those are released next Monday. Her two early wins were tough, but Muchova has built her confidence the longer she has spent in Paris and the serve has been an effective weapon for the Czech player.
There is no doubt that Karolina Muchova is going to have to serve at a very high level to win this match and she is going to be up against an Aryna Sabalenka who has not returned as well as she would have liked in her last two matches. Some of that is down to the defensive strengths of both Sloane Stephens and Elina Svitolina to handle her power, but both of those players also had to save a number of Break Points and I do think Karolina Muchova will be under more threat from the Sabalenka return than she has faced in this tournament.
Getting as many first serves into play as possible will be a big help for Karolina Muchova, but her second serve is likely going to be attacked and that will put some pressure on the Czech's own return game.
So far in this French Open event, Karolina Muchova has been able to exert some control on the return, but it may be much more difficult against the Sabalenka serve and I think that will eventually break down Muchova.
I actually admire Karolina Muchova and for all she gets out of her tennis and this is not a player that is beaten easily very often.
However, it feels like her serve is going to be a bit more vulnerable than Aryna Sabalenka's serve and ultimately it may be asking too much for the Karolina Muchova return to keep her in this match once the World Number 2 gets motoring.
Iga Swiatek - 6.5 games v Beatriz Haddad Maia: Any player that is able to come from a set down to win Grand Slam matches in three consecutive Rounds has to be hugely admired. Beatriz Haddad Maia has been able to do that in her wins over Ekaterina Alexandrova, Sara Sorribes Tormo and Ons Jabeur and the Brazilian has been able to hold her tennis together when the pressurised moments have come up.
In her Quarter Final win on Wednesday, Beatriz Haddad Maia saved two Break Points in her last service game of the second set as she was almost heading out of the French Open, but she turned the match around against Wimbledon and US Open Runner Up Ons Jabeur in very impressive fashion.
Being able to run through the final set as quickly as she did does mean Beatriz Haddad Maia should have been able to keep some energy in the tank, but this is not an ideal situation for her. After all of the tennis she has been forced to play, Beatriz Haddad Maia will not have a day off between matches to recover and now faces the ultimate challenge on a clay court.
Iga Swiatek has not really been pushed too hard in the run to another French Open Semi Final and even her win over Coco Gauff was more comfortable than the 6/4, 6/2 scoreline might have suggested. While the young player deserves credit for at least giving Swiatek something to think about, the World Number 1 was comfortably the superior player on the court and I do think it is going to be very difficult from preventing Iga Swiatek winning a third French Open in four years.
Despite her very strong wins in Paris, Iga Swiatek will know that she still needs to get a bit more out of the serve if she is going to defend the title she won twelve months ago. She did produce a big serving day in the win over Gauff on Wednesday, and Iga Swiatek continues to exert her will over her opponents with her strong return game.
Iga Swiatek has a very strong record against left handed players on the Tour too having compiled a 24-4 mark against them, but it should be noted that one of the defeats was to Beatriz Haddad Maia last year in the Canadian Masters.
That has to give the underdog a boost in confidence, but Haddad Maia is going to have to lift her level considerably to challenge Iga Swiatek on the clay courts and she is not expected to get as much help as the likes of Jabeur and Sorribes Tormo have given her at key moments in those matches.
A big hitting, aggressive player like Beatriz Haddad Maia is dangerous with the kind of start she is getting on the handicap, but I do think it will be tough for her to overcome some of the prolonged stretches of below par tennis we have seen from her in this Grand Slam. Unlike some of her recent opponents, Iga Swiatek is not likely to drop her level and let the Brazilian back into the match and I think the World Number 1 is able to come through with a wide win.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
French Open Update: 38-29, + 5.98 Units (134 Units Staked, + 4.46% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment