I have to say, this has been one of the toughest ends to a Grand Slam for my Picks in a long time and it has been as frustrating as it could have been.
Once again a player seemed in control, had all of the chances and I am not sure how Iga Swiatek blew her big lead and almost lost the French Open Final. Credit should rightly be given to Karolina Muchova, but at 2-6, 0-3, 30/30, I don't think the Czech player would have had a lot of belief herself and was very much helped by a nervous performance from Iga Swiatek.
Ultimately the Pole won the French Open title for the third time in four years and that will give her confidence as Swiatek prepares to go into the tough grass court season.
Before that we have the Men's Final to come and you can read my selection below.
I will be taking a short break from the Tennis Picks before Wimbledon just to analyse this tournament and see how I can improve for the third Grand Slam of the season. While some of the last few days is down to bad luck, there are always areas to improve with the selections and the short gap between now and Wimbledon is a good time to just have a look into how those improvements can be made.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Casper Ruud: The Men's French Open Final on Sunday will conclude the second Grand Slam of the 2023 season and we are going to be a little over three weeks away from the start of Wimbledon.
The defending Champion in SW19 is Novak Djokovic and he has the chance of winning a second Grand Slam in a row and overtaking Rafael Nadal to be in sole control of the most Singles Grand Slam titles won by a male player. Win at Wimbledon and he matches Margaret Court's overall record, but Djokovic will not be looking too far ahead and has to be focused as he tries to win a third French Open title.
This has been the 'least successful' Grand Slam for Novak Djokovic, even if he did set a new record of having reached seventeen Quarter Finals at Roland Garros. However, the Serb has won this title the fewest times, although Novak Djokovic has lost more US Open Finals than here in Paris.
It has been a remarkable career and one that looks far from over, even if Novak Djokovic is not playing at the same kind of level he has been in previous years. This level is still good enough to beat most players on the Tour, especially in the best of five setting, while the Semi Final proved that there is a huge mental challenge for anyone standing across the net from him.
Novak Djokovic was the first to admit that the Semi Final with Carlos Alcaraz was extremely competitive for two sets and that the Spaniard was the better player at the end of the second set, but tension, emotion and the opportunity to beat one of the all time greats clearly impacted the younger player. Seeing someone cramp up in the manner Alcaraz did was hugely surprising, but just backs up the feeling that all of the other players on the Tour are going into Grand Slam matches with Novak Djokovic with a lot of mental obstacles to overcome.
Now it is a test for Casper Ruud who was not expected to have this kind of run at the French Open having underperformed in the lead up events. The Runner Up from 2022 is clearly enjoying playing in the tournament and he has reached a third Grand Slam Final in twelve months, although Ruud has come up short against Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz previously.
The Norwegian would have certainly been hoping for an 'easier' challenge in the French Open Final in 2023, but Casper Ruud will be trying to focus on his own tennis, which has been peaking in the last four Rounds heading into the Final. His win over Alexander Zverev in the Semi Final was very impressive, but beating the likes of Zverev, Holger Rune and Nicolas Jarry may not a level that is enough to beat Novak Djokovic.
Casper Ruud has to serve well- ultimately this let him down in the Final twelve months ago when he allowed Rafael Nadal to pile up sixteen Break Points and lost serve eight times.
There is also a weakness in the backhand, which is likely going to be exploited by Novak Djokovic better than most, and I can see why this has been a poor match up for Casper Ruud so far in his career.
Novak Djokovic has won all four previous matches since September 2020 and two of those have been on the clay courts in Rome. The former World Number 1 has won 41% of return points played against Casper Ruud, but that number jumps a little to 42% in their clay court matches and it has seen Novak Djokovic break serve in 35% of return games played.
Compared to that, Casper Ruud has won 33% of return points and only broken in 10% of return games played on this surface against this opponent and their meeting in Rome in May 2022 was a more routine win for Novak Djokovic than the 6/4, 6/3 scoreline might have indicated.
The elbow issue is a concern for Novak Djokovic fans, but I think he is helped by the way the Semi Final ended and he does have an edge on the serve. He will know exactly how to prepare for this French Open Final, while Casper Ruud had not been returning as well in this tournament as his Break Point conversion rate would suggest prior to the win over Alexander Zverev in the Semi Final and I think it could be another tough afternoon in the spotlight on the final day at the French Open for the 24 year old.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
French Open Update: 39-33, - 0.02 Units (144 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment