For the second day in a row, the early Tennis Picks could not return a winner, but the later selections turned the day around.
I was a little disappointed with the Casper Ruud failure to cover considering his domination of the first two sets, while Lauren Davis withdraw when it looked like Lesia Tsurenko was going to return a winner.
Frustrations with Borna Coric's performance meant I was settling in for a losing day, but a few things began to go the way of the selections including Iga Swiatek sweeping through the second set when saving a number of Break Points on her way to beating Claire Liu.
There is still room for improvement for the tournament returns, and hopefully that begins with a more positive start to Day 6 when the Third Round begins.
That Round begins on Friday and we have had more upsets with Jannik Sinner, a genuine contender, exiting the men's tournament and really opening up the bottom half of the draw. I have to say I was very impressed by Alexander Zverev on Thursday and through the first couple of Rounds and we may see him exorcise the mental demons of the bad injury suffered in Paris twelve months ago to go at least one step further and make the Final.
Plenty of work has to be done before the Finalists are confirmed in both Singles events being played in Paris as the players continue to deal with warm, but windy conditions.
Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 games v Denis Shapovalov: At first glance this looks like a really big spread for the World Number 1 and top Seed at the French Open to cover.
That is not a negative reflection on Carlos Alcaraz, but more to point out the talent that Denis Shapovalov has, even if the Canadian has had a tough couple of years which have seen him slip down the World Rankings. Two wins in the main draw at Roland Garros will make sure that Denis Shapovalov is Seeded at Wimbledon, where his game could be very dangerous, but the lack of time spent on the clay courts makes it hard to believe he can compete with the Spaniard in this Third Round match up.
Much will depend on how well Denis Shapovalov serves.
Despite his relatively poor record on the clay courts since the beginning of the 2022, Denis Shapovalov has managed to hold over 80% of his service games played. Right away that will make it very difficult to beat him by a big margin, but the return part of his tennis has not been up to the level that a top player would expect and that has built pressure on him.
Like many, the first serve is most effective, but the Shapovalov second serve can begin to crack under pressure and I do think a player like Carlos Alcaraz who has broken in 38% of return games on the clay courts prior to the French Open will be able to take advantage.
Over the last twelve months, Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas have both beaten Denis Shapovalov on this surface very comfortably and found the breaks needed, but this time the lefty is facing an even better player in Carlos Alcaraz.
A surprising dropped set in the Second Round will have just refocused Carlos Alcaraz who has won five of the seven sets played at the French Open by 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2 scores. The serve is perhaps an under-rated part of the Carlos Alcaraz game on the clay courts and I do think he is going to be able put a statement win together by dismissing a tough challenger on his way into the second week.
A left handed player gave Carlos Alcaraz all sorts of problems at the French Open in 2022 and that was Albert Ramos rather than Rafael Nadal. However, Alcaraz has won twelve of his last thirteen matches against southpaws on the clay courts and has broken in 38% of return games played in those matches.
The expectation is that the Number 1 Seed can find the breaks in this one and he can pull away for a strong win over Denis Shapovalov who lost by a nine game margin to Holger Rune twelve months ago.
Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 games v Cameron Norrie: Wins over a couple of struggling Frenchmen has allowed Cameron Norrie to ease his way into the French Open, but the British Number 1 will know that there is a much tougher test in front of him in the Third Round. A place in the second week of the French Open for the first time is up for grabs for Cameron Norrie, who is looking to push into the top ten of the World Rankings, but his opponent has previous experience of doing that and is very, very comfortable on the clay courts.
While Cameron Norrie dropped a couple of sets in the First Round, Lorenzo Musetti has barely broken a sweat in winning both of his matches in straight sets.
His Second Round win over Alexander Shevchenko was incredibly one-sided and the young Italian is set for another move upwards in the World Ranking from his current career best Number 18. At 21 years old there is still some real room for improvement for Lorenzo Musetti and the most obvious place is with the serve, but he has shown he can compete with the best players on the Tour on the red dirt and we have yet to see the same from Cameron Norrie on any regularity.
Over the course of his career, Cameron Norrie only holds a 19-18 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts. He is 2-5 in that situation this season, although Norrie is a tough competitor and does hold one of those wins over Carlos Alcaraz, which always deserves respect.
Lorenzo Musetti has a 19-12 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay and I think that is a real credit to him as someone who is still building and improving on the Tour. He has a 4-3 mark against those opponents in 2023, including a win over Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo, and Musetti has an edge when it comes to the returning numbers compared with Cameron Norrie.
That was the case when these two met in Barcelona in April and it was Lorenzo Musetti's return game that came to the fore in the three set win over this opponent. It was a close match and Cameron Norrie will believe that it won't take a lot for things to turn his way, but I do think Musetti has the slight edge, which can pay dividends at the big moments.
Beating Cameron Norrie is never easy because he will not go away without putting in a full shift, but I do think his opponent will just find enough from his return game to ultimately win this one in four sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Diego Schwartzman: He is in danger of dropping out of the top 100 of the World Rankings after an incredibly difficult twelve months on the Tour, but Diego Schwartzman should always be respected on the clay courts.
Playing on the red dirt in 2023 has not been as positive an experience for Diego Schwartzman as he would have hoped and he came into the French Open with a really poor 2-11 record on the surface. Falling two sets down in the First Round looked to spell an early end to his time in Paris, but Diego Schwartzman bounced back to win in five sets and has won six sets in a row to reach the Third Round.
He is a three time former Quarter Finalist at the French Open, but Diego Schwartzman is defending a Fourth Round run from last year as he remains in danger of slipping out of the top 100. A tough career has put a lot of miles in the legs and that may be the reason for what has looked to be a rapid decline over the last year and Schwartzman is going to be a significant underdog in this Third Round match.
Prior to the French Open, Diego Schwartzman was only holding 59% of his service games played, which is a big drop from the 68% mark from last season. Making life even more difficult is the fact that the return game has dropped a few percentage points too and I do think Diego Schwartzman is going to find it tough to stay with Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is trying to fly under the radar.
The former Finalist in Paris, Stefanos Tsitsipas is in the same half of the draw as Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz and those two are clearly going to be making the headlines.
That won't be a big problem for Stefanos Tsitsipas who has dropped a single set in the tournament and who impressed in beating a clay court specialist like Roberto Carballas Baena in the last Round. The serve continues to be a big weapon for Tsitsipas and he has long enjoyed returning on the clay courts much more than he has on the other surfaces and that should show up in this match.
It has been a favourable match up for Stefanos Tsitsipas, although the Diego Schwartzman return in previous years has caused one or two problems for the Greek player. That has not been as clear on the clay courts where Stefanos Tsitsipas holds a 2-0 record over Diego Schwartzman having held 82% of his service games compared with 50% for the Argentinian player.
This gap could be there on Friday considering the form of the two players going into the French Open and I do think the 2021 French Open Runner Up will be able to move into the second week with a strong win under his belt.
Other Selections: This has been a tournament filled with upsets, but I largely think the higher Ranked men's players can get through their Third Round matches on Friday.
That includes Karen Khachanov, Andrey Rublev and Hubert Hurkacz who are all relatively small favourites compared with the three already mentioned in this thread.
I do think all three are more than capable of seeing off Thanasi Kokkinakis, Lorenzo Sonego and Juan Pablo Varillas in three or four sets.
Novak Djokovic is another who should win, but I do think Alejandro Davidovich Fokina can make a decent fist of things and that is firmly one to watch.
We have seen some upsets in the men's French Open, but the women's tournament has seen the Seeded players tumbling out of the second Slam of the season.
I am expecting Elina Svitolina and Daria Kasatkina to avoid joining the upset list, but Irina-Camelia Begu looks like a live underdog to me.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Sets @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Irina-Camelia Begu @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
French Open Update: 19-15, + 2.36 Units (68 Units Staked, + 3.47% Yield)
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