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Saturday, 10 June 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Josh Taylor vs Teofimo Lopez (June 10th)

The end of May had three terrific cards around the United Kingdom and it is perhaps a shame that one of those was not moved into a relatively empty slot last week.

World Titles changed hands over that Bank Holiday weekend and it has just rearranged the top of a couple of Divisions.

Chris Billam-Smith winning the Cruiserweight World Title against Lawrence Okolie was arguably the biggest upset on the night, even more so than Leigh Wood's redemption against Mauricio Lara, and it has really changed the trajectory that both seemed to be on.

For Okolie it really is a case of going back to the drawing board- he was talking about Unifications and soon moving up to Heavyweight, but it was another ugly display of jab and grab and I think the paying public are simply not interested in seeing that. However, if he had kept winning it would have been one thing and now the defeat has really dropped his stock, and increases the importance of the rematch.

Doors will be opened for some mega fights for Billam-Smith if he is able to back up the first victory and beat Lawrence Okolie again. The obvious fight is the rematch with Richard Riakporhe, which could be for multiple World Titles if they are looking for that to happen in the Spring/Summer of 2024, while some of the other Champions will also likely be keen to take on the new King.

Michael Conlan disappointed, but Leigh Wood was good to his word and is another who has some big opportunities in front of him. The question for Wood and his promoters is whether he can get those big fights in before having to take on a mandatory, while Mauricio Lara has to be moving up a weight and out of the Division having dropped the World Title on the scales.


In the time between this weekend and the one at the end of May we have been given the confirmation of a truly massive fight in the Welterweight Division when all of the marbles are on the line in Las Vegas. Both Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr need to be given credit for finally getting the fight over the line and I do think it is going to be a memorable week in late July with Naoya Inoue taking on Stephen Fulton just days before the Spence Jr-Crawford card.

We should soon have news about movement in the Heavyweight Division, which has been on hold after talks broke down between Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury for an April Undisputed fight, and I think all of the World Titles will be defended in the next three months. It is a shame that inactivity has taken over the marquee Division, like many others, but I am hoping that seeing Anthony Joshua, Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury all going out by September will at least tick that Division over before the expected Saudi money for the December mega-fights they are hoping to put together.


It has been a difficult May for the Boxing Picks and I can't get away from that.

Some poor decisions have been made, but I have also just talked myself out of a couple of selections, which made a lot more sense in hindsight.

We are only just heading towards the halfway mark of the year so there is plenty of time to get things right and back up the strong 2022, but it would be nice to start getting things moving in the right direction as soon this weekend.

A big couple of cards take place, but the headliner is coming from New York City where Josh Taylor defends the last of the World Titles he had Unified.



Josh Taylor vs Teofimo Lopez

There were rumours of this being a potential fight in the Light-Welterweight Division back in May 2021 after Josh Taylor Unified the Division and became the Undisputed World Champion, while at the same time Teofimo Lopez held onto all of the World Titles in the Lightweight Division having beaten Vasyl Lomachenko a few months earlier.

Back then it would have almost certainly been a fight in the main room at Madison Square Garden or in the Barclays Center, but they will meet in June 2023 in the smaller room.

That should underline where the careers have gone for the two fighters in the last two years.

Josh Taylor is still a Light-Welterweight World Champion, but he is returning to the ring for the first time since February 2022 when he was given a controversial Decision win over Jack Catterall. Many felt the challenger had done enough to win the World Titles so Taylor wanted to run it again, but injuries and mandatories have been in the way and over the last sixteen months the British fighter has been forced to give up three of the four World Titles and is left with the WBO strap.

He defends that this weekend having had two rematches with Jack Catterall cancelled, while there was talk that Josh Taylor had been struggling to make the 140 pound limit and would choose to move into the Welterweight Division.

My feeling is that his stock had dropped off enough for the big names to not actively be seeking him out if Josh Taylor had moved up, but this is a big fight for him and the chance to just remind the Boxing world that he is still the man to beat.

While Josh Taylor remains undefeated even as his career has just hit a wall, Teofimo Lopez has had a much tougher time.

A year after winning the Undisputed Lightweight Titles, Teofimo Lopez was upset by George Kambosos Jr and several months later he decided his time at 135 was over. While Devin Haney has become the big name in the Division that Lopez left behind and who might be heading into the Light-Welterweight Division with a big World Title fight of his own, Teofimo's career has seen him produce two uninspiring wins at 140 pounds.

A 7th Round Stoppage against Pedro Campa and a Split Decision against Sandor Martin, a fight where Lopez was put on the floor and one many felt he might have lost, including himself at one point, has not exactly prepared the American for a fight of this size.

Teofimo Lopez was also put down early by George Kambosos Jr and it is a slight worry that he has been dropped by a couple of opponents that may not possess the kind of firepower he is going to be seeing on Saturday night.

The Knock Down against Martin was more of a flash one than anything too worrying, but the Spaniard is not exactly known for punching power. His southpaw stance caused problems for Teofimo Lopez and now he faces an elite southpaw with a lot to prove to his fans, and himself, after the last showing.

I do think there are questions for Josh Taylor to answer- he has long spoken about the effort it takes to get down to 140 pounds, although he has looked really good this week, while the long lay-off between fights and the change in trainer are far from ideal.

In saying that, I do think Teofimo Lopez is a fighter that has been walking a tightrope in his personal life and asking his team if he 'still got it' immediately after the Martin win is worrying. He has really struggled to back up the win over Vasyl Lomachenko and going up in weight to face a big Light-Welterweight may be too much for him.

The last performance is hard to shift from memory, but Josh Taylor is a lot better than he showed against Jack Catterall in 2022 and I do think this fight will have gotten the juices going.

I have to say that Teofimo Lopez has shown resiliency and toughness late in fights that have not felt like they were going his way, but those were in the Lightweight Division and he has not impressed heading up in weight. This also feels like a big step up in class and I can see Taylor just working his way through the early Rounds and wearing out Lopez.

It will take a bit of time and Josh Taylor may need to be patient, but he can begin to break down and wear down the younger fighter, who may not be ready mentally to compete with the World Champion. We have seen Taylor put down bigger men than Lopez and in elite level fights and I think he may be able to force a Stoppage somewhere around the Ninth or Tenth in this one.


There are other cards of interest on the night, even if most eyes will be on the 140 pound World Title fight in New York City.

Someone who should be operating on a bigger level is Jaime Munguia who remains undefeated at 41-0, but who has not been managed or promoted as well as many would have hoped.

It has been five years since Munguia was not allowed to fight Gennady Golovkin for the Middleweight World Title and he has moved forward since then, but not as far as he perhaps should have.

Avoiding taking mandatory World Title fights and moving between 154 and 168 has become a feature of his career, but at 26 years old he finally looks to be taking a step up.

Sergey Derevyanchenko looks to have his best days behind him at 37 years old and has largely fallen short, even narrowly, when involved in the biggest fights. He has shown toughness to get off the floor in a Split Decision loss to Daniel Jacobs and in an Unanimous Decision defeat to Gennady Golovkin, while the Ukrainian has also been the distance with Jermall Charlo and Carlos Adames, albeit more losing efforts.

I think he can at least stand up to the power that the younger fighter has, but the fresher fighter and the 'A side' will likely get the nod in a tough fight on the cards.


Sunny Edwards should defend his World Title in London, but everyone is expecting that to be on the cards, even if his opponent does have some dangerous looking tools.

I think Olympian Cheavon Clarke may have to go a few Rounds again before breaking down David Jamieson as he continues building his way up the Cruiserweight World Rankings. The only two losses suffered by Jamieson have been against Mikael Lawal, the second by Stoppage, and I think Clarke has shown his power can carry through the early Rounds.

Earlier in the night, Youssef Khoumari is a big favourite to beat Reece Bellotti- the latter has been out of the ring for a while, but should be looking to make this into a fight and that could see the two produce a fun encounter while it lasts.

MY PICKS: Josh Taylor to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Jaime Munguia to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cheavon Clarke to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.00 Coral (2 Units)
Youssef Khoumari-Reece Bellotti Fight To Go Distance- No @ 2.30 William Hill (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 27-50, - 19.40 Units (144 Units Staked, - 13.47% Yield)

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