After a brutal couple of weeks, at least Week 7 begun the turn in fortunes that I hope will carry me through the next few weeks of the regular season.
Bad picks mixed with bad luck is not the combination you want to see, but a bit of fortune helped the Week 7 Picks return with a positive number.
We now move into Week 8 with more teams coming in and going on Bye Weeks, but the Divisions will begin to take serious shape in the lead up to Thanksgiving Day.
Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: An upset on Monday Night Football has pushed the Chicago Bears (3-4) back into contention in the open NFC North, but they are once again big dogs in Week 8 of the 2022 season as they travel for a second week in a row.
That is immediately a tough situation for any team to deal with and the Chicago Bears are going to be tested by the Dallas Cowboys (5-2) who are still in third place in the NFC East despite being one of eight teams that have won five games this season. Last weekend some late plays helped the Cowboys beat the Detroit Lions with a returning Dak Prescott at Quarter Back.
He should be better with another week of reps under his belt, but the Cowboys could be without Ezekiel Elliot and that would mean using Tony Pollard as a three down Running Back. There have been some improvements in the performance level of the Chicago Defensive Line in recent games, but I would still think the Dallas Offensive Line can open up some big holes for Pollard, who has the speed to hit any holes very quickly and run away from the line of scrimmage.
Dak Prescott is expected to give the Cowboys passing Offense a real boost and I do think he will be better in Week 8 than he was in Week 7.
There are some quality Receivers around him and Prescott should be well protected by his Dallas Offensive Line, perhaps even more so now Robert Quinn has been traded away from the Chicago Bears. Good work has been done by the Chicago Secondary in recent games, and that has to be respected, but I do think the Cowboys have enough balance on this side of the ball to put themselves in a position to move the chains.
Ultimately the biggest threat the Dallas Cowboys bring to the field is on the Defensive side of the ball and it was some huge plays from that unit that helped them pull away and crush the Detroit Lions.
Justin Fields did have a solid outing on Monday Night Football as the Bears surprisingly blew out the New England Patriots, but much of the Bears Offense is managed on the ground. They have put up some solid numbers on the ground with Fields capable of running the ball from the Quarter Back position and the Running Backs piling up the yards, but the Dallas Defensive Line have looked pretty strong up front of late and they will be looking to make the Quarter Back beat them with his arm.
It is simply not how the Chicago Bears will want to play this game and you do wonder what they will be able to do if they fall behind a couple of scores. Justin Fields is not really trusted to throw the ball consistently and the Offensive Line have struggled in pass protection, even with a mobile Quarter Back playing behind them.
After winning on Monday Night Football as the underdog, I think it will be tough for Chicago to back that up against a Dallas team who will be able to put a full effort in before heading into their Bye Week.
A couple of turnovers in favour of the Dallas Cowboys could help them pull clear in this one as they did in Week 7 and I do think the home team are capable of covering what is a very big line on paper.
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions Pick: A returning Tua Tagovailoa at Quarter Back and a winning effort to snap a three game losing run is a positive for the Miami Dolphins (4-3), but they remain third in the AFC East. This may not be a Conference game and neither is the one in Week 9, but the Miami Dolphins will be looking to take some serious momentum into their Bye Week by winning both on the road.
First up is the trip to the Detroit Lions (1-5) who have the fewest wins in the NFC having made some late mistakes in their loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week.
Injuries have really held the Lions back, while this is not a great spot for them hosting a non-Conference opponent before having Divisional rivals the Green Bay Packers come to town. Head Coach Dan Campbell was an interim Head Coach for the Miami Dolphins and so that should bring extra motivation, although he is now on the hot seat in The Motor City and the big question is whether the players are still behind him.
Effort has not really been lacking, but losing key players has haunted Campbell and the Detroit Lions- he should have D'Andre Swift back at Running Back, but both Amon-Ra St Brown and TJ Hockenson are likely to be limited.
The return of D'Andre Swift will give the Lions a boost as they look to establish the run, but that is not going to be easy against this Miami Defensive Line. In recent weeks Miami have done well to contain the likes of Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon so the feeling is that they clamp down up front and at least force Detroit to turn to the arm of Jared Goff from some tough third down positions.
Jared Goff may not be the long-term answer for the Lions at Quarter Back, but he has not played badly in his eighteen months with the team. Unfortunately there is not a deep choice of skill players to throw the ball to and that has not helped Jared Goff when it comes to finding the consistency he would want from Quarter Back.
An improving Miami Secondary has been able to make some big plays to help their team even in the absence of Tua Tagovailoa and I think it could be another tough afternoon for Goff and the Lions Offensive unit. They will be able to have some successes, but the Miami Dolphins can find the plays to just stall one or two drives and give their team every chance of winning this one on the road.
Scoring enough points to keep up with the Dolphins is likely going to be the challenge for Detroit as I am expecting an improved performance from Tua Tagovailoa and his skill players. The Quarter Back played well on Sunday Night Football in Week 7, but Tagovailoa admitted that he needs to find a way to produce Touchdowns rather than settling for Field Goals if they are going to achieve all Miami feel they can.
There haven't been many positives, if any at all, since Tagovailoa went down with an injury, but the Miami Dolphins have found a way to get their running attack moving in the right direction. Raheem Mostert has worked with Mike McDaniel before when both were in San Francisco and he has begun to benefit from the Offensive Line learning what they need to do from their first year Head Coach.
With a positive rushing Offense keeping the team in front of the chains, Tua Tagovailoa and the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle should be able to benefit with passing lanes opening up. A limited Detroit pass rush should mean Tagovailoa has plenty of time to throw to his Wide Receivers down the field and I do think the Dolphins will be better than they were Offensively last Sunday.
The Lions are a very good home to back when it comes to the spread, but I do think they could be distracted by the game with the Green Bay Packers coming up. A superior Miami Offensive balance can help the Dolphins too as they perhaps create a late turnover or two which helps them turn the screw and cover as the road favourite.
Miami are just 2-2 against the spread as the road favourite since the start of the 2021 season, but they look a much better team now and with Tua Tagovailoa back at Quarter Back, they can cover here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Over the last few years, the Minnesota Vikings (5-1) have been a team that had tended to lose close games, but that has been the complete opposite in 2022. The Vikings have won four in a row before heading into the Bye Week, but none of those have been by more than a one-score difference and the Minnesota Vikings have opened up a healthy lead at the top of the Division.
They are going to be well rested for this Week 8 game, but the Arizona Cardinals (3-4) will have enjoyed a 'mini-break' of their own having played on Thursday Night Football last time out. A win over the New Orleans Saints would have been a big boost, as would the performance of a returning DeAndre Hopkins.
The connection Hopkins has with Kyler Murray seems to make the Cardinals tick all the more efficiently and Kliff Kingsbury is going to hope both will be on the same page as they look for an important road win. Big games are coming up within the Division, but the Cardinals are looking for some momentum after the early season inconsistencies.
Minnesota have a strong record, but they do have a Secondary which can be attacked and I think Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins could be something we hear often in Minneapolis. Much will depend on the rushing part of the Offensive unit in order to keep the Cardinals in front of the chains and avoid having to allow routes develop down the field behind what has been shaky Offensive Line play.
Establishing the run is not going to be easy, but having a dual-threat at Quarter Back is a positive and one that should help Arizona have a little more success on the ground compared with recent opponents faced by the Vikings.
The Bye Week may actually have come at a good time for the Minnesota Vikings to work out how they struggled to earn much yardage in their last game against the Miami Dolphins. The Offensive unit produced just 234 yards on the day as they struggled in all aspects of their play, but the Vikings came away with a victory which should make it easier to have those discussions with the key players on this side of the ball.
Recent struggles to run the ball is a concern for the Vikings considering the talent they have at Running Back in Dalvin Cook, and it is unlikely that the Offensive Line is going to be able to open up too much for him against this Cardinals Defensive Line.
Pressure will then shift over onto Kirk Cousins at Quarter Back who is having a quietly good season, but without really dominating numbers. If Cousins is playing behind the chains, he will be under a bit of pressure from the Arizona pass rush, but the likes of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson can win their battles outside so I do think Minnesota will have some success moving the ball.
However, I am not sure they can cover more than a Field Goal in what feels like a game where both teams will have their moments with the ball in their hands.
Three Divisional games in a row follow this one for Arizona, but they are 20-8-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine road games.
At the same time, Minnesota are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine when hosting a team with a losing record on the road, while the Vikings have not really come out as hard as they would like when playing out of their Bye Week. A returning DeAndre Hopkins can help continue the boost for the Arizona passing game and I think that will be enough for the road team to find a way to cover, even if they are not able to win the game outright.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The NFC Championship Game was clearly a huge moment and a game that will be hard to ignore, but the San Francisco 49ers (3-4) have dominated their NFC West rivals the Los Angeles Rams (3-3) in recent years in the regular season. The 49ers were comfortable home winners over the Rams earlier this month and that makes it seven regular season wins in a row for San Francisco.
A home thumping to the Kansas City Chiefs will have stung the 49ers Defensive unit, but they have matched up much better against Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Injuries have been an issue for the 49ers on this side of the ball, but I do think the Chiefs are a tougher team to scheme against and Kyle Shanahan will know exactly how his team need to approach this one as they look to bounce back.
The Rams are well rested and will have had time to devise a game-plan that can make them a lot more effective than when they scored just nine points in the road game at San Francisco, but Sean McVay has not always been at his best as a Head Coach when coming out of a Bye Week.
A major problem for the Rams is that they need to establish the run to get the rest of the Offensive schemes in sync, but that has been a problem for them all season. Things are unlikely to change in this Week 8 game as they prepare to face a stout San Francisco Defensive Line that is giving up an average below 100 yards per game on the ground.
It shifts the pressure onto Matthew Stafford, but the Quarter Back has not looked as comfortable with the skill players outside of Cooper Kuup.
Matthew Stafford may point to Offensive Line issues when trying to throw from third and long spots and that is likely to be the case again. The 49ers got some of their key players back to rush the passer last week and I do think San Francisco are going to be stalling drives by simply teeing off on Stafford when he drops back to pass and hopes to be given the time for routes to develop down the field.
The San Francisco 49ers will be looking to make life easier for their own Quarter Back as Jimmy Garoppolo continues to show that he is likely to take the team only so far. That is perhaps a little bit harsh on the Quarter Back as one who has played in the Super Bowl, but he is little more than a game-manager and Jimmy Garoppolo's first task will be to hand the ball off to Jeff Wilson and Christian McCaffrey in a bid to establish the run.
With the smoke and mirrors approach that Kyle Shanahan will look to employ, I do think the 49ers can at least move in front of the chains and I also think McCaffrey is going to be a big weapon as a pass catching Running Back that will take those short passes and look to break big gains.
This can only bode well for Jimmy Garoppolo, who had a decent game in the first match up with the Rams in early October, and I think he can have success in this one too. Deebo Samuel is a big absentee, but George Kittle looked healthier last week and Garoppolo should be given enough time to find Receivers down the field.
The spread is a small one, but I do like the 49ers to continue their dominance of the Los Angeles Rams.
The extra preparation time should help the Rams, but they have not really impressed this season and San Francisco have covered in their last four road games against this Divisional rival.
Home crowd has not been a factor in favour of the Rams who are 1-4 against the spread in their last five in this Stadium, while I do like the fact that the 49ers have gone 6-2 against the spread in their last eight following a straight up loss.
This feels like a good match up for the 49ers and I expect they continue their recent dominance of the series.
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: You almost feel you have to back Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (3-4) as a double digit underdog in a primetime slot in Week 8 of the NFL season. Elite Quarter Backs tend to thrive as underdogs in general, but there is no doubt that the line will not have escaped the attention of Rodgers and his team-mates and pride is going to kick in.
It also does say a lot about the Buffalo Bills (5-1) who are coming out of their Bye Week after beating the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Week 6 and who remain top of the AFC East. Most will be expecting the PlayOffs to be travelling through Buffalo this season, although it is going to be a race to the finish line with a number of teams on five wins that will believe they can secure what could be the all-important Number 1 Seed in the Conference.
The Bills will have a huge amount of respect for Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen has spoken very highly of the Quarter Back on the other sideline. However, it cannot be ignored that the Green Bay Packers have simply not looked like the team many expected and that is on both sides of the ball with the Defensive unit not making enough stops.
One of the main problems for the Packers is that the Defensive Line cannot stop the run and I think the Buffalo Bills will be able to become the latest team to take advantage. Most will think of the powerful passing of Josh Allen, but the Quarter Back gets plenty of things moving on the ground too and the Bills have Devin Singletary also making effective plays on the ground.
Being unable to stop the run has meant teams have just pounded the rock at the Packers, but this Secondary is going to be tested harder than they have at any time this season. Green Bay have simply not faced an Offensive unit like the one the Bills bring to the table and I think this is another opportunity for Josh Allen to show the nation that he may be the top Quarter Back playing in the NFL.
I expect the Bills to find their Offensive groove with all the weapons they have and they should score plenty of points so the pressure is on the Packers and Aaron Rodgers to find the right formula to get their own Offense unstuck.
The Packers may feel the best approach to this one is leaving Allen and the Bills Offense to idle on the sidelines for as long as possible and that will mean pounding the rock, controlling the clock and using long, extended drives to frustrate the home crowd. In AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones, Green Bay do have two solid Running Backs, but the Offensive Line is not going to be able to bully the Bills up front and I think it will be difficult to expect the Packers to dominate the line of scrimmage.
In previous years you might have expected Aaron Rodgers to loosen up the running lanes with his arm, but a thumb issue coupled with inconsistent play out of his Receivers has proved hard to overcome. Losing Davante Adams has been a major blow and the Packers may struggle to break clear of some of the quality players the Bills will trot out in the Secondary, although injuries have seen them a little more vulnerable to the pass in recent games.
Some of that is down to the fact that teams have to throw to keep up with the Bills, and that means soft coverage from the Secondary and the numbers perhaps don't highlight how well they have been playing. The Packers will also have to try and protect Rodgers and give him time to make his throws if they are playing catch up, but containing this Buffalo pass rush may be beyond this team.
Sean McDermott usually has Buffalo well prepared out of their Bye Week and this is another chance to showcase their talents to a wider audience, which is a huge motivational tool for players. It should also keep them focused on Week 8 rather than the suddenly important AFC East game against the New York Jets which is on deck, and I think the Buffalo Offensive power sees them punish the Packers with another big home win.
I don't think it is easy to oppose Aaron Rodgers with this many points behind him, but the Bills have won their two home games by at least 34 points this season and they should have the scoring power to pull away.
MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 9.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 7: 5-3, + 3.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)
Week 6: 2-6, - 8.34 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.13% Yield)
Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)
Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)
Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
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