The first College Football PlayOff Rankings have been released this week, but they are going to have a massive shake up following the Week 10 games.
Big games are due to be played in a number of the Power 5 Conferences that will move those Rankings about as teams focus on trying to take games as they come.
Florida Gators @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: Week 10 of the 2022 College Football season has four of the overall top ten facing one another in what could be pivotal games as far as the College Football PlayOff shake up is concerned. All four of those teams are in the SEC and there are massive implications for the SEC Championship Game which will be determined by the results when the Tennessee Volunteers visit the Georgia Bulldogs and the Alabama Crimson Tide travel to the LSU Tigers.
Most of the attention will be on those two games and rightly so, but my first selection from Week 10 comes from College Station where the Texas A&M Aggies (3-5) host the Florida Gators (4-4). This is an important step on the road to becoming Bowl eligible and both teams are looking to show they are better than their 1-4 records in the Conference would suggest.
The Gators are in a tough spot having invested a lot of effort to try and beat the unbeaten Georgia Bulldogs in Week 9, while the Texas A&M Aggies have lost four in a row as injuries have piled up. Jimbo Fisher is unlikely to be on a hot seat with the Aggies despite this underwhelming season, but he is going to find it tough to find the three wins needed to reach six for the season if his team are not able to knock off Florida this week.
Haynes King has been a big miss for the Aggies and the Quarter Back may not be available in Week 10 either, but there were positive signs out of the Offensive unit last weekend and I think the Aggies can build on that. They should have plenty of opportunities to establish the balance on this side of the ball with an ability to run the ball backed up by Connor Weigman at Quarter Back, who is coming off his best game of his young career at this level.
In recent games, the Gators have just looked a little worn down up front and I think there are one or two holes that can be exploited by the Aggies Defensive Line. A bigger concern for the Gators is the little pass rush pressure they have managed to find and that has left the Secondary open to being attacked through the air and Florida have allowed an average of just under 300 passing yards per game over their last three contests.
The Gators Head Coach Billy Napier is making his mark on the team in his first year and a decision was made to cut ties with Brenton Cox Jr and that weakens the Gators further when it comes to stopping the run and rushing the passer.
Defensively it may be difficult to make stops, but Napier will have liked what he saw from Anthony Richardson at Quarter Back despite the loss to the Bulldogs. Anthony Richardson threw for 271 yards in the loss, but that is a big improvement on his recent numbers and the Gators may be more likely to lean on their Quarter Back's throwing ability through the remainder of the season.
One of the reasons the Gators have not tasked Richardson with throwing a lot of passes is that their Offensive Line have been strong at opening up big running lanes. They will be expected to do that against the Aggies as long as this game is close on the scoreboard and Anthony Richardson could be asked to manage the game.
However, you do have to feel it is going to be a tough ask for the Quarter Back to replicate his Week 9 performance against this Aggies Secondary. In obvious passing situations, the Aggies also have a strong pass rush that will get into the Florida Offensive Line and force Anthony Richardson to run the ball or throw quicker than he would like.
I feel that is where the difference will be made as the Gators perhaps struggle to pick themselves up after putting in such an effort against Georgia last week.
The Gators are just 4-9 against the spread in their last thirteen games following a loss by at least 20 points, while they are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten road games.
This has been a difficult season for Jimbo Fisher, but his Texas A&M team are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine home games and I think they will do just enough to edge past this spread.
Texas Tech Red Raiders @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: If the early College Football PlayOff Rankings are anything to go by, it has been made clear to those in the Big 12 Conference that even a one-loss Champion may struggle to make the final four. The problem for the Conference is that nine of the ten teams playing in it have already been beaten twice this season and we still have a month of the regular season and the Championship Game to be completed.
The pressure falls on the shoulders of the TCU Horned Frogs (8-0) who are the sole unbeaten team in the Conference, and they still have tough road games at the Texas Longhorns and Baylor Bears to negotiate. In most seasons you would expect a one-loss Big 12 Champion to have a real opportunity to play in the College Football PlayOff, but the Horned Frogs can't afford to lose focus as they prepare for their latest game.
This week they are playing in Fort Worth and the Horned Frogs are hosting the Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-4) who have a 2-3 record in the Conference after being blown out by the Baylor Bears in Week 9.
While the TCU Horned Frogs have been a massive surprise in Sonny Dykes' first season as Head Coach, the Red Raiders are where most expected them to be, although back to back Bowl appearances for the first time since 2013 are far from a certainty. The Red Raiders still need at least two wins to have a chance of being selected for a Bowl, but they have an incredibly tough ending to the season where you would expect them to be the underdog in three of the four games left.
Quarter Back issues are not helping the Red Raiders who have used a Committee behind Center in recent games and that has perhaps contributed to the 15 Interceptions thrown. Last week was a miserable day out for the three players who have spent time at Quarter Back, while the Offensive Line have not been able to give them the time they have needed to make their throws, despite the strong yardage number.
I don't doubt the Red Raiders can have success in moving the chains in this game, but those Interceptions are a concern against this TCU Secondary and it could be a turnover or two that sees the home team pull clear.
While Texas Tech will be proud of some of their Offensive numbers, the Horned Frogs have been a revelation on this side of the ball with a rejuvenated Max Duggan continuing to pile up the numbers. The Quarter Back is not one that is worried about being rotated in and out of the line up like those playing for Texas Tech, and Max Duggan's confidence has seen him throw 22 Touchdown passes with just 2 Interceptions to counter.
Running the ball against the Red Raiders Defensive Line has not been that easy of late, but I do think the passing options for the Horned Frogs will loosen Texas Tech up. That should help the Horned Frogs find the balance they need to keep the chains moving and I think Max Duggan will continue to make the positive headlines for his team.
He has been well protected by his Offensive Line so should have the time to hit the Red Raiders Secondary with accurate passes and I do think Duggan and the Horned Frogs can win another game by a double digit margin to keep themselves right near the top of the College Football PlayOff Rankings.
There are some hugely positive trends in favour of the underdog that have to be respected, but the blowout last week came courtesy of some key turnovers and the feeling is those are going to be costly for Texas Tech in this one too.
The Horned Frogs blew out the Red Raiders in Lubbock last season and I think they will be able to win by double digits in front of their own fans in Week 10 of the 2022 season.
Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: Both of these teams are almost certainly out of contention for a place in the College Football PlayOff even if they win the Big 12 Championship, but winning a Championship is always a huge deal.
The Baylor Bears (5-3) will travel to the Oklahoma Sooners (5-2) in Week 10 and the former have a 3-2 record and the latter a 2-3 record in the Conference. With the TCU Horned Frogs looking like they will be able to hold at least one of the Championship Game spots in the Conference, this becomes a very important game for both the Bears and the Sooners as they look to line up opposite the Horned Frogs with the title on the line.
It has been a disappointing season for both of these schools through to the start of November- Baylor won the Big 12 Championship last season and both the Bears and the Oklahoma Sooners ended the season with at least eleven wins. They will be Bowl eligible and hoping for one of the headline games outside of the PlayOff Games, but you cannot ignore the fact that both the Bears and Sooners have failed to meet expectations.
The path to the Big 12 Championship Game definitely looks a lot more difficult for the Bears than the Sooners- Baylor have road games here and in Texas and also have to host the currently unbeaten TCU Horned Frogs, while Oklahoma still have games at lowly West Virginia and Texas Tech to negotiate.
An injury to Dillon Gabriel certainly hasn't helped the Sooners who have lost Conference games to Kansas State, TCU and Texas and have a tough path back into the Championship Game. However, they do have Gabriel back now and the Sooners have piled up the points in their last couple of wins over Kansas and Iowa State.
This is expected to be a challenging outing for the Quarter Back, but Dillon Gabriel will likely be helped by the Sooners being able to establish the run and making sure that the Offensive unit stays in front of the chains. In recent games the Bears have struggled to clamp down on the run in the manner they have for much of the season, but the Secondary continues to play well and Baylor will feel they have every chance of earning the upset if they can make one or two big plays on the ground.
Dillon Gabriel is an upgrade at Quarter Back, but it won't be easy for him to make throws against the Bears Secondary out of obvious passing situations and so it is important for the Sooners to keep running the ball. If they are behind the chains, the ball-hawking Baylor Secondary becomes even more dangerous and any extra possessions for either Offensive unit in this game is likely to be key to the final outcome.
Running the ball is also going to be an important first step for the Baylor Offense as they look to beat the Sooners for a second season in a row and they will feel there are more holes for them to exploit on the line of scrimmage than when the Oklahoma Sooners have the ball. The Bears Offensive Line have played well all season, while the Sooners have disappointed on the Defensive Line and it does feel like the road team will be playing in front of the chains consistently.
That will be music to the ears of Blake Shapen at Quarter Back who has thrown for over 1800 yards this season and added 13 Touchdowns with 5 Interceptions to those numbers. With little consistent pass rush generated by the Sooners, Blake Shapen should have time to exploit the Oklahoma Secondary in this game and especially if he is playing from third and manageable.
It will also open up the playbook for the Quarter Back and I think Shapen will have a big game for the Bears.
However, much like Dillon Gabriel, Blake Shapen has to be aware of the Oklahoma Secondary and their ability to create turnovers in a game where those feel like being the key to the outcome of the game.
Having the hook over the Field Goal total certainly feels valuable in a game that could go back and forth, especially with the Bears having the more consistent Defensive unit.
Baylor are also 17-5 against the spread in their last twenty-two games facing a team with a winning record at home, while the Sooners have not covered in their last four home games.
Oklahoma will feel like they are heating up towards the end of the season after back to back wins, but they were out-gained in terms of yardage in the win over Iowa State in Week 9 and I think this Baylor Offensive unit is much stronger than the Cyclones but with an equivalent Defense.
The extra couple of days of preparation time will help Oklahoma in Norman, but I like the Baylor Bears to keep on track as they bid to return to the Big 12 Championship Game and to defend the title they won in 2021.
Clemson Tigers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Rankings don't matter according to Clemson Tigers (8-0) Head Coach Dabo Swinney and his experiences of guiding this school not only into the College Football PlayOff, but also to National Championships, suggest he is someone to listen to. The reality is that the position doesn't really matter to unbeaten Clemson right now and they will surely be one of the four teams selected to compete in the PlayOff as long as they can finish this season unbeaten as the ACC Champion.
Last season was a disaster for the Tigers considering the standards that have been set and that says something for a team that finished 10-3. However, they failed to make the ACC Championship Game and the Head Coach and players have plenty of experience this time around which makes them a genuine National Championship contender.
We don't really know how good the Clemson Tigers are mainly because they have played no one of any note this season and even this trip to South Bend is not going to give them the credit they may feel they deserve. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-3) have won two in a row and five of their last six, but it has been a difficult transition year for the team under their Head Coach Marcus Freeman who took over from the departing Brian Kelly.
It means the Tigers have not played any team this season that has had fewer than two losses on the board overall and that is going to hurt them with the Committee if there are close decisions to be made. For example, the TCU Horned Frogs will have a much stronger looking resume if they finish unbeaten in the Big 12 compared with Clemson, and that may mean style points are at play for the Tigers over the remaining games.
Producing those on the road at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be very tough though, especially as the Tigers have yet to really convince Offensively and now faces an improving Defensive unit. The Fighting Irish Defensive Line has really clamped down on the run in recent games and that is very important for them as they look to make Clemson a little one-dimensional and relying on Quarter Back DJ Uiagalelei who had his worst game of the season two weeks ago which saw his backup Cade Klubnik lead the comeback to beat the Syracuse Orange.
Overall it has not been a bad season for DJ Uiagalelei, but he has not really fulfilled the potential so many believed he had when taking over from Trevor Lawrence. Last season was a really hard one for the Quarter Back, but he has been a little more confident all around in 2022 and I do think he can have a bounce back game out of the Bye Week.
The key will be the line of scrimmage though and Clemson's Offensive Line have to find a way to at least push the Fighting Irish back. Keeping their team in third and manageable is key to limit the powerful Notre Dame pass rush and also give their Quarter Back the opportunity to make plays with either his arm or his legs.
Battling at the line of scrimmage will also be important on the other side of the ball where the Clemson Defense has been dominant for much of the season. Again, you cannot really tell how good this Defensive unit is considering the relatively comfortable schedule they have faced, but the Defensive Line has been strong up front and will be looking to shut down the Fighting Irish rushing attack.
The Fighting Irish do have a tandem at Running Back that have proven they can keep the chains moving behind the Offensive Line, but the Tigers Defensive Line has limited teams to under 100 yards per game on the ground and at 3.1 yards per carry this season. Even in recent games as they have gotten into their Conference schedule, the Tigers Defensive Line has continued to play very well up front and will be looking to force Notre Dame to turn to Drew Pyne and his arm to keep the Offense on the field.
Drew Pyne has thrown for just shy of 1200 yards this season and has 13 Touchdown passes and 4 Interceptions, but Notre Dame will need more from the Quarter Back to upset one of the leading contenders to make the PlayOffs. His numbers in recent games have not been the best and I am not sure Pyne will have the consistency to attack this Clemson Secondary and avoid a mistake or two that could prove to be very costly on the day.
Both teams will want to impose themselves on the line of scrimmage, but my edge has to be with the Clemson Tigers.
A little more consistent Quarter Back play and a stronger Offensive Line can help make a big play or two to take this game away from Notre Dame, even if winning in South Bend is a huge challenge.
However, Notre Dame are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six home games and Clemson are 20-8 against the spread in their last twenty-eight on the road. As long as DJ Uiagalelei is able to avoid the turnovers which almost sunk the Tigers two weeks ago, I do think they can win this one and cover the line on the road.
The Tigers are also well Coached out of a Bye Week and I think they will be fully prepared to win this game at the Notre Dame Fighting Irish or they risk being eliminated from the College Football PlayOff picture with a one month of the season remaining.
MY PICKS: Texas A&M Aggies - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs - 8 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers - 3.5 Points @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Liberty Flames + 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 9: 3-4, - 1.33 Units (7 Units Staked, - 19% Yield)
Week 8: 3-5, - 2.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.88% Yield)
Week 7: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)
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