The penultimate week of the regular season is before us in the College Football year and there are still a number of permutations that could decide the PlayOff spots.
Some teams cannot afford a single loss, while the LSU Tigers are looking to make history by becoming the first two-loss team to be invited into the PlayOff. It is a tough path for the Tigers to run, but it will be hard to ignore them if they can win the SEC Championship in early December, while other potential Conference Champions will struggle to get into the PlayOff picture with even one loss.
Things will become a little clearer at the end of Week 12 with some big road tests ahead for some of the top Ranking teams.
TCU Horned Frogs @ Baylor Bears Pick: The latest College Football Rankings have kept the unbeaten TCU Horned Frogs (10-0) inside the top four places and it still feels like this is a team in control of their own destiny as far as the PlayOffs are concerned. The only unbeaten team in the Big 12 Conference will feel like they are guaranteed a place in the PlayOff as long as they remain unbeaten, but that means negotiating the two remaining regular season games and winning the Championship Game in early December.
No one will ever downplay the huge impact Gary Patterson had as Head Coach of the Horned Frogs, but the last four or five years had been difficult and it was perhaps no surprise that TCU and Patterson decided to part ways in 2021. With that in mind, Sonny Dykes arrived as the new Head Coach of the Horned Frogs with little expectation in Fort Worth in what many believed would be a rebuilding year.
Instead a hugely experienced line up have propelled the Horned Frogs to ten wins already, which doubles the five wins secured in their 2021 season. The win in Week 11 at the Texas Longhorns showed a different side of the TCU game with the Defensive unit stepping up to cover up for what was the worst Offensive output of the season and the Horned Frogs will feel plenty confident in remaining unbeaten.
The last road game of the season sees TCU heading to the Baylor Bears (6-4), but the defending Big 12 Champions are coming into this game off the back of a big home defeat to the Kansas State Wildcats. The blowout loss in Week 11 means the Bears are going to need to win their remaining two regular season games and hope that is good enough to see them return to the Big 12 Championship Game, although a number of results will have to go their way.
After producing just over 100 rushing yards in the defeat to the Kansas State Wildcats, the Baylor Bears will be under pressure to establish the run in this one. For much of the season the Offensive Line have been very strong at the line of scrimmage, but they may have a second tough outing in succession when facing a Horned Frogs Defensive Line that have clamped down up front and held teams to 3.7 yards per carry over their last three games.
Blake Shapen will need the running game if he is going to have a successful game at Quarter Back, especially as it will help him limit the mistakes he has been making. Two Interceptions hurt last week and Shapen now has 13 Touchdown passes with 8 Interceptions in the 2022 season before facing a TCU Secondary that have been much improved in recent wins.
Moving the chains and sustaining drives is important for the Baylor Bears if they are going to earn the home upset and likely end TCU's chances of reaching the PlayOffs.
However, the Horned Frogs Defensive Line is likely going to control the line of scrimmage on that side of the ball, while the Offensive Line have been rolling pretty efficiently in recent games. Kendre Miller had a solid game at Running Back in the win over the Texas Longhorns and he is expected to pick up from where he left off against this Bears Defensive Line, which is going to help Max Duggan at Quarter Back.
Like much of the Offensive unit, Max Duggan had his weakest outing of the season in the win over the Longhorns, but he has been careful with the ball all year. Establishing the run should give Max Duggan a bit more time to throw the ball from third and manageable positions on the field and there are some holes in the Baylor Secondary that could be exposed and give TCU a chance to keep the balance Offensively.
The TCU Horned Frogs have won two in a row against the Baylor Bears and they look to have the Offensive unit that can see them win in Waco and move to one more victory to secure an unbeaten regular season. They have been very good at covering the spread in recent road games, while Baylor are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven following a blow out loss at home.
Baylor did cover as the home underdog in both games where they were given points last season, but I do think the TCU Horned Frogs can get the better of them here and overcome this relatively small spread.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: The situation is clear enough for the Georgia Bulldogs (10-0) that the defending National Champions will return to the PlayOffs as long as they win out in the regular season and then win the SEC Championship Game. One loss could potentially be overcome, as long as that is in the SEC Championship Game rather than in the regular season, but that is not a situation that the Bulldogs will want to flirt with.
They have been one of the leading contenders as far as the National Championship is concerned for a number of years, but the Georgia Bulldogs have not won the SEC Championship since 2017. Last season they were beaten by the Alabama Crimson Tide before redeeming themselves with a victory in the National Championship Game against the same opponent, but it would be a surprise if Kirby Smart's team are not crowned the Champions this season.
Style points matter to many teams in and around the PlayOff places, but that is unlikely to be a big concern for the Georgia Bulldogs who will not be able to be ignored if they are to win out. However, the Bulldogs are playing really well of late and look to be peaking at the right time and they are a big favourite when visiting the Kentucky Wildcats (6-4) in Week 12.
A loss to the Vanderbilt Commodores will have stung the Wildcats who have fallen well short of the ten wins recorded in 2021, but Kentucky return home this Saturday looking to offer much more resistance than they did when recently losing to the Tennessee Volunteers. That defeat was on the road, but the defeat to the Vanderbilt Commodores is the second home loss suffered by the Wildcats in the SEC this season.
Kentucky will have hosted four SEC teams by the time this 2022 season is concluded, but the game against the Georgia Bulldogs is clearly the toughest they will have faced.
The biggest challenge for the Kentucky Wildcats will be putting the Offensive game plan together to make this a competitive game. They do have a Quarter Back that is tipped to go in the First Round of the NFL Draft when Will Levis does declare, but injury has perhaps affected his recent play and that has been a big issue for the Wildcats.
It is very unlikely that the Kentucky Offensive Line will be able to help establish the run against the strong Georgia Defensive Line and that only makes things tougher for Will Levis. While the Quarter Back has had a decent overall season, recent outings have seen the Wildcats averaging just 125 passing yards per game and that is down to the fact that they have not had a lot of success running the ball.
Will Levis has been left in third and long spots and the Offensive Line have not been able to offer him the protection they would have wanted, while a limited Levis has not been able to scramble around in the pocket and clear the pass rush. In this game, the Bulldogs pass rush is expected to be in Levis' face through much of the game and it will be difficult for Will Levis to have consistent success throwing into the Georgia Secondary with that in mind.
Things are expected to be much different on the other side of the ball when the Georgia Bulldogs are going to be able to establish the run behind a strong Offensive Line. A deep Running Back corps means those Backs are kept fresh and Georgia should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground against the Wildcats Defensive Line that has allowed 176 yards per game to opponent's rushing Offenses in recent outings.
Stetson Bennett should have a comfortable day at Quarter Back with the team helping keep him in front of the chains, while the play-action pass should be a big part of the game plan. A strong season from the Quarter Back has been aided by the protection he has been getting from the Offensive Line and I think Stetson Bennett will have similar successes to Hendon Hooker of the Tennessee Volunteers when arguably the second best team in the SEC beat the Kentucky Wildcats by 38 points.
The Bulldogs have dominated the recent series between these SEC East rivals with twelve straight wins over Kentucky. Recent games have actually tended to be close and competitive, but injury and Offensive issues for the underdog makes this one feel like it could be a blow out and I do think the Georgia Bulldogs are playing with a real swagger at the moment, which will be hard to contain.
Two of the three road wins in the SEC this season have come by at least 26 points, while Georgia have won four of their last five games by at least 22 points. You don't want to underestimate Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats, but I think this Georgia team will look to make one more big SEC statement before a non-Conference game and the SEC Championship Game against the LSU Tigers.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: It was never going to be easy to play in the Big Ten East alongside the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes and both of those teams are currently in the top four of the College Football Rankings. Those two teams will fight it out for not only the Division crown over the next two weeks, but the Penn State Nittany Lions (8-2) won't be worrying about anything other than finishing this season by winning out.
Both of their losses have come against the big two in the Division, but the Nittany Lions have largely dominated the opponents they have faced outside of Michigan and Ohio State. Strong wins over the Indiana Hoosiers and Maryland Terrapins will have given the Nittany Lions some momentum as they look for the finish that will see them earn a place in one of the bigger Bowl Games to be played in December/January.
They will complete their road schedule in the regular season when facing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (4-6) who have really been struggling in the Big Ten Conference games. Despite a losing record, the Scarlet Knights were invited into a Bowl Game last season, but Greg Schiano was hoping to avoid another in his third season back at Head Coach in New Brunswick.
After back to back blow out losses, Rutgers were at least more competitive in the defeat to the Michigan State Spartans in Week 11. Ultimately the defeat will have hurt, but at least the players showed they have something left in the tank as they prepare for their final home game of the 2022 season with two wins still making them Bowl eligible.
One of the major issues Rutgers have had all season is that they have struggled Offensively, although they are coming into this one having produced their most Offensive yards in a game against a FBS team this season. Backing that up and doing the same against the Penn State Defensive unit looks a tall task for the Scarlet Knights and I do think it is this side of the ball that has made the Nittany Lions so tough to beat this season.
Running the ball against the Penn State Defensive Line is not easy and the Scarlet Knights have not shown enough in recent games to suggest they will be able to change that. It means more pressure on the shoulders of Gavin Wimsatt at Quarter Back even if he is coming off his best career performance in College Football in the defeat to Michigan State.
Gavin Wimsatt is going to find it very difficult to replicate his successes of last week with the likelihood that he will be throwing from third and long. The Penn State Secondary doesn't give a lot away and the Wimsatt will also have to deal with a fierce Penn State pass rush and I think that is either going to lead to turnovers or to stalled drives.
It is never going to be easy to have Offensive success in any game that is being played, but the Penn State Nittany Lions should be pretty comfortable with the match up in this one. They should be able to establish the run with a lot more consistency than the Scarlet Knights and it should keep the team in third and manageable through much of the contest.
The Rutgers Secondary have played pretty well in recent games, but that may also be down to the fact that teams don't feel they need to throw too much against the Scarlet Knights when running the ball is very effective. Penn State may choose to give Sean Clifford more opportunities in the passing game and he should be operating out of a clean pocket that gives him time to make some solid plays down the field.
While Penn State have put together a pretty strong set of trends at the betting window, Rutgers are 0-8-1 against the spread in their last nine games when playing a team with a winning record.
Penn State have dominated the recent series between these teams and they have covered in the last two between themselves and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and I think they can find the big plays to move clear in the second half of this one too.
Tennessee Volunteers @ South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: There are some factors that are out of the control of the Tennessee Volunteers (9-1) as to how this season will pan out, especially in relation to the final College Football PlayOff Rankings. They are still sitting outside the top four places, but the Volunteers are almost certainly going to be Ranked above the loser of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines game coming up in Week 13 of the regular season.
However, things will become murkier if the LSU Tigers were to beat the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game and both the TCU Horned Frogs and USC Trojans are able to win their own Conference Championships without losing another game. The permutations do begin to get a little wild, but the Volunteers are unfortunately in a position where the sole loss suffered this season is going to keep them out of the SEC Championship Game regardless of how the rest of the regular season shakes up.
The Committee deciding the PlayOff Rankings have been swayed by style points and you could see the Tennessee Volunteers were highly motivated to put their foot down against the Missouri Tigers in a big win last week. Extra motivation was easy to find with that win over the Tigers being the last home game Tennessee will play this year, but they will head out on a couple of SEC road games with the mindset of putting some huge numbers on the board.
First up is the South Carolina Gamecocks (6-4) who secured Bowl eligibility earlier in the month, but who will be looking to bounce back from the complete capitulation in a loss at the Florida Gators last week. Shane Beamer helped the Gamecocks reach seven wins in 2021, but South Carolina can only surpass that number by winning at least one of their remaining two regular season games and then the Bowl Game too.
It is a big ask of the team and especially after the performance in losing to Florida- the Gamecocks face the Clemson Tigers, the ACC Championship favourites, after the Tennessee Volunteers this week and it is going to be a big test for all involved.
There were some big expectations in Columbia when the Head Coach was able to persuade Spencer Rattler to transfer from the Oklahoma Sooners, but the Quarter Back has not really helped the Offensive unit as the Gamecocks would have hoped. In truth, Spencer Rattler looks like a player with a shattered confidence in the position and the Gamecocks Offensive Line have had a tough time running the ball to make life any easier for him.
They are not expected to get a lot of change from the Tennessee Defensive Line and that puts extra pressure on the Quarter Back, something that Rattler has not really dealt with as hoped. With little protection, playing out of third and long has been a tough assignment for Spencer Rattler and he is going to have a difficult day making plays against this Volunteers Secondary from that position.
Moving the ball will be hard for the home team, but the Tennessee Volunteers should be much more comfortable after the Offensive unit bounced back from their rough day in the office against the Georgia Bulldogs. Playing on the road is never going to be easy, but the Volunteers should be able to rip off some big gains on the ground and that should keep the team in front of the chains for much of the evening.
Being in third and manageable spots also opens things up for Hendon Hooker in the passing game and he is set to blitz through the 3000 yard mark for the season at the end of this game. Hendon Hooker has proven to be a dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position with over 400 yards on the ground and I do think he will have enough time to make his plays if the Volunteers are running the ball as effectively as anticipated.
Take nothing away from the South Carolina Secondary, who have been playing pretty well in recent games, but this Tennessee Offensive unit put up some huge numbers against a similar Defensive unit last week. They have too many options and the Volunteers are not likely to take their foot off the gas with an 'easier' game to come next week so I am expecting them to produce another statement win.
The Gamecocks were beaten by 41 points by Georgia at the Williams-Brice Stadium and 32 points last week in Florida- Tennessee will certainly feel they are playing well enough on both sides of the ball to be targeting a similar margin.
Tennessee are also 8-2-1 against the spread in their last eleven games in South Carolina, while the Gamecocks are just 4-8 against the spread as the home underdog since 2018.
USC Trojans @ UCLA Bruins Pick: A second loss for the Oregon Ducks has almost certainly ended their bid to reach the College Football PlayOff and that means the Pac-12 is down to one realistic option. The USC Trojans (9-1) have that single loss to the Utah Utes on their resume and will likely need to win out as well as the Pac-12 Championship Game if they have any real ambitions of working their way into the top four.
It says a lot about what the Committee think of the Trojans that the one loss team are currently Number 7 in the Rankings. Head Coach Lincoln Riley guided the Oklahoma Sooners into the final four three times before making the move to the Trojans at the end of the 2021 season and he will be trying to keep his players focused and not thinking about Rankings when there are up to three more games to negotiate.
Neither game left in the regular season is going to be easy for the USC Trojans, but at least they get to host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 13. First the Trojans have to visit the Rose Bowl as they take on the UCLA Bruins (8-2) whose own chances of reaching the College Football PlayOff were ended in a defeat to the Arizona Wildcats.
Chip Kelly will be reminding his players that their main ambition for the season remains in front of them as they can still win the Pac-12 Championship, while they are still on course for their first ten win season since 2014. Consecutive winning seasons will also underline the work that Kelly is doing with the Bruins having begun with three losing years in succession.
Like his Oregon Ducks team, the UCLA Bruins do have a very good Offensive unit that has to be respected in this game. Quarter Back Dorian Thompson-Robinson has provided a dual-threat out of the position, while the UCLA Offensive Line have been very good up front as they have opened up some big holes to run the ball.
Many of the successes that the Bruins have will come through their ability to run the ball and they will certainly feel their Offensive Line can open up some big holes up front. There is no doubting the challenge for the USC Defensive Line to at least limit that damage, while rushing the ball also opens up the Secondary for the big play that Thompson-Robinson will look to hit.
Keeping Dorian Thompson-Robinson in front of the chains will at least help negate some of the pass rush pressure that the Trojans are able to bring, while the Quarter Back can have one of his stronger outings in recent starts against a vulnerable Secondary. However, Thompson-Robinson is going to have to be aware of the ability this USC Secondary has when it comes to turning the ball over.
Extra possessions will make all the difference in a game where both teams are going to feel they can move the ball with real confidence whenever they have it. The Trojans have a powerful Offensive Line and they will believe they are capable of dominating at the line of scrimmage, even against this pretty stout UCLA Defensive Line, and that should give Caleb Williams another chance to show off his personal Heisman credentials.
Transferring from the Oklahoma Sooners to join the former Sooners Head Coach Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams has had a really strong season and kept the Trojans chugging towards a Conference Championship as well as a potential PlayOff place. The Quarter Back has had a very good season and he is going to have options to exploit this UCLA Secondary, while Caleb Williams from playing behind an Offensive Line that has been protecting him very well.
Much like Dorian Robinson-Thompson, Caleb Williams has looked after the ball when throwing and the Bruins have not had the same success turning the ball over as the Trojans have had. That could end up being the difference in this big, big game in the Pac-12 and the USC Trojans have to be given the narrowest of edges.
The road team have won the last two in this series, but that means the USC Trojans will be heading to the Rose Bowl with revenge on their minds having lost last year at home.
UCLA have been good playing off a loss, while the Trojans have not been as strong on the road as they have been at home, but I do think USC can turn that road trend around with a victory here. It could have a basketball feel with both teams being able to move the ball up and down the field, but I think a turnover or two falling in favour of the road team may end up being the difference in a close game.
UAB Blazers @ LSU Tigers Pick: A place in the SEC Championship Game has already been secured by the LSU Tigers (8-2) with two games still to play and this feels a tough schedule spot for the team. Close wins over the Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks have proved to be the key for the Tigers as they have won the SEC West, but they still have to show the PlayOff Committee that they deserve a spot in the final four and become the first ever two-loss team to take the step.
It involves winning out and likely needing a loss or two for some of the other leading teams chasing those places, but all the Tigers can do is focus on themselves. It would be easy to overlook the UAB Blazers (5-5) who are still chasing a win to become Bowl eligible in a season in which they have underwhelmed, but the LSU Tigers won't want to lose momentum and they can rest starters once they get into a strong lead.
Head Coach Brian Kelly has overachieved in his first season with the Tigers, but he has made it clear that winning and losing become habits and that he is still teaching his team how to win.
In recent games the LSU Tigers have really ramped up the running game and it is hard to envision this UAB Defensive Line being able to contain the home team when they look to establish the run. The Tigers have been able to produce some big numbers against teams from the SEC so this should be a considerable step down and allow LSU to move the chains efficiently.
Throwing the ball has been much tougher for the Tigers, because the Offensive Line have been much happier run blocking than in pass protection. However, this is another step downwards in terms of ability of opponent and I am not sure the Blazers are going to be generate that much of a pass rush to bother the Tigers as they look to find some momentum in their passing.
The UAB Blazers have a much more manageable test next week and you do wonder how much effort the Conference-USA team are going to want to put into this game. They are a team who have been able to run the ball pretty well in recent games, but they have not really faced any Defensive Line like the one that the Tigers will bring to the field and I do think LSU are going to clamp down up front and see if Dylan Hopkins can beat them from the Quarter Back position.
Dylan Hopkins is likely going to have to deal with more pressure from the pass rush than he has been used to, while the speed of the teams in the SEC is something that will surprise a Quarter Back who has been playing in the Conference-USA. Of course the Blazers could have more success as the Tigers give some of their fringe players a few opportunities to build experience, but this feels like a game that the SEC West Division winners should be able to dominate for large periods.
UAB have not covered in any of their last five games against SEC opponents, while they have failed to cover in any of their last four overall.
There is the feeling that the LSU Tigers will let off a little bit in the second half as they begin to concentrate on their remaining two games, but even then, the Tigers should have enough to cover this handicap mark.
MY PICKS: TCU Horned Frogs - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 10 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 19 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars - 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 22 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Iowa State Cyclones - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 1.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 14.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
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