Another Week in the 2022 NFL season and things have become clear about ambitions of teams with the trade deadline passed.
Some have clearly rolled the dice and some have perhaps begun to think about 2023 already, but we have just about reached the halfway mark of the year and with so much still to play for.
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders Pick: One of the more surprising records in the NFL as we approach the halfway stage of the season has to be one the held by the Minnesota Vikings (6-1) who have a healthy lead in the NFC North. Missing the PlayOffs from this position would be a massive blow, but the Vikings are a team that has a record which is perhaps not completely indicative of how they have actually played.
They are a road favourite this week at the Washington Commanders (4-4) who have won four in a row to move back to 0.500, although they are in a very strong NFC East where the team immediately above them have won six games.
It may have been an enforced decision, but having Taylor Heinecke back at Quarter Back has sparked the Commanders and given them a boost on this side of the ball after Carson Wentz had struggled in his first few games for Washington. A big game is on deck for the Commanders as they are set to play the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 10, but they cannot afford to overlook any opponent having started the season with four losses in five games.
Taylor Heinecke may not be a Quarter Back on which a franchise will be built, but he is a strong game manager and his team-mates clearly believe in him. This is a game that should give him an opportunity to showcase more of his ability to throw down the field against this Vikings Secondary, who have given up plenty of yards in recent games, and Heinecke has some solid Receiving options that will give the Commanders confidence.
The Commanders may need their Quarter Back and the passing game to be working at full capacity because they are not likely to have a lot of joy establishing the run. In recent games, the Vikings Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run up front, while playing with a lead has forced teams to try and throw their way back into games.
Either way, it will be important for the Vikings to try and put Washington in obvious passing situations as they will be able to unleash their pass rush to try and get to Taylor Heinecke. The Commanders Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection as well as run blocking and it could be the key to helping Minnesota set their Offensive unit up in short field situations.
And that could spell trouble for Washington considering how well Kirk Cousins and the Vikings Offensive unit have been playing for much of the season. Playing against his former team will only give Kirk Cousins more of a motivation, although he may be able to hand the ball off to Dalvin Cook and allow the Running Back to pick up significant yards on the ground.
Establishing the run opens up the playbook for Kirk Cousins, who is blessed with some real quality Receiving options and been given an early Christmas present with the addition of TJ Hockenson. Add the Tight End to Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson and the Vikings have an Offensive unit that will feel they can score plenty of points whoever they play, especially with Dalvin Cook giving them a genuine running threat.
Rain is expected and that could be a decisive factor, but I do think the Vikings have the edge running the ball and it should give them an opportunity to win and cover on the road.
The Vikings are not easy to trust as a road favourite, and this feels like a square selection, but I do think the Washington Commanders have been dealing with a fortunate schedule to put up their three wins in succession. This is a much tougher game and the balance of the Vikings may be too much for a Washington team that may not match up that well with Minnesota and who have a 1-4 record against the spread in their last five games facing a team with a winning record.
Turnovers could be crucial on the day with the wet conditions expected, but I will look for Kirk Cousins to remind the home faithful of what they could have had at Quarter Back.
Dalvin Cook can pile up the yards on the ground to keep Minnesota comfortable and the Vikings Defensive Line may make one or two big plays to ensure the cover.
Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears Pick: The weather in the Windy City can be an equaliser at this time of the year, but conditions look relatively comfortable in Week 9 of the 2022 season. That may not be good news for the Chicago Bears (3-5) as they prepare to face the exciting Miami Dolphins (5-3) after contrasting trade deadline approaches from the two teams.
There is no doubt that the Miami Dolphins feel there is a window to have some major successes with the team they have put together.
Prior to the trade deadline, the Dolphins had looked strong in every game that Tua Tagovailoa had started and finished at Quarter Back and now they have added Jeff Wilson at Running Back to give the team more options. A bigger move was trading for Bradley Chubb from the Denver Broncos to give the Dolphins a strong presence when it comes to rushing the passer and the Miami Dolphins have a chance to prove themselves over the remainder of this season.
While the Dolphins are adding players, the Chicago Bears have traded away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, which is a major blow to what had been a solid Defensive unit. In something of a surprise, the Bears did bring in Chase Claypool to give Justin Fields another Receiving weapon, but the Bears certainly don't look as strong as they could have done if they had kept those Defensive pieces in the building.
Justin Fields may be given a bit more of a chance to showcase his arm talent as he looks to convince the management team and the fans that he can be the franchise Quarter Back for the Bears. Some have suggested that Fields is not trusted to throw the ball, but the bigger problem has been the Offensive Line who have struggled to give him any time and now have to deal with the addition of Bradley Chubb for the road team.
At least Fields can offer some threat with his legs and they should be able to have some success pounding the ball on the ground as long as this game is close. Both David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert will benefit from being given the ball, although the Dolphins Defensive Line are capable of making some big plays in the run game to try and force the Bears into throwing the ball.
I do think the Bears will be able to get in front of the chains with their power running, but the Miami Dolphins are also going to be confident thanks to an improving Raheem Mostert and the addition of Jeff Wilson in the backfield. Both of those players are very familiar with Mike McDaniel's philosophy so I don't think it will take Wilson too long to get into the groove for the Dolphins, while both benefit from playing a Chicago Defensive Line which will be weaker at stopping the run without Smith at Linebacker.
In recent games it has been possible to establish the run against the Bears and this should make things more comfortable for Tua Tagovailoa who is making a mockery of some of the criticism he has faced since turning professional.
The Bears Secondary has to be respected, but some of the numbers may have been boosted by the fact that teams feel they don't need to throw on them. The likes of Jayden Waddle, Mike Gesicki and Tyreek Hill will certainly test out the Defensive Backs and Safeties more than most and I do think Tua Tagovailoa will have time to make his plays down the field.
Playing on the road in the NFL is never easy and covering as a favourite on the road is tough.
Miami did do that last week at Detroit and back to back road games is another difficult spot, but the Chicago Bears are just 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine home games.
The Bears are also 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record, and I do think the Miami Dolphins will have too much scoring for the Bears to keep up on the scoreboard here.
Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The AFC North is a competitive Division, but the Cincinnati Bengals (4-4) have to be frustrated that they still can't seem to get the better of the Cleveland Browns. They were beaten pretty convincingly on Monday Night Football and that has dropped the Bengals back down to 0.500 for the season, while the team are going to be without Ja'Marr Chase for a few more games.
His absence clearly would have hurt Joe Burrow, but the bigger problems are the Offensive Line and injuries suffered in the Secondary. In the Week 8 loss at Cleveland, Joe Burrow was seemingly under pressure every time he dropped back to throw and his own Receivers did not have the time to break free down the field.
Things should be cooler in the pocket for the Quarter Back when the Carolina Panthers (2-6) roll into town off the back of a pretty stunning defeat to the Atlanta Falcons. A Hail Mary pass seemed to have given the Panthers the win in Week 8, which would have gotten them firmly back in the mix in the weak NFC South, but DJ Moore was flagged after grabbing the Touchdown and the Extra Point was missed.
Another missed kick in Overtime proved costly for the Panthers who were beaten and this is a team that may already be thinking ahead to the 2023 season. Christian McCaffrey is now playing in San Francisco, while Baker Mayfield looks to have been benched behind PJ Walker.
An interim Head Coach is in charge, while Robby Anderson is another who has been traded away from the Panthers as they perhaps turn their thoughts to a high Draft place. This game also feels in a remarkably tough scheduling spot as the Panthers are due to play the Atlanta Falcons again on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 with revenge firmly on the mind considering how the game ended last week.
You do have to question the kind of motivation that the Panthers will have for a non-Conference game on the road, although they have found something in D'Onta Foreman at Running Back since he has taken over for the traded McCaffrey. He may not be the same pass catching kind of threat, but Foreman will put his head down and power between the Tackles and has given the Panthers a genuine running game.
I think he will have a strong game as long as this game is close and he is facing a Cincinnati Defensive Line which struggled to put the clamps down on Nick Chubb last week.
Passing from a position ahead of the chains is going to make things easier for PJ Walker at Quarter Back and he should have success against the banged up Cincinnati Secondary. However, the passing game is still a work in progress and Walker is still learning how to get the ball to his Receivers as efficiently as possible, something that could be much tougher to do if the Panthers are down a couple of scores.
Overall you have to believe the Panthers will have Offensive successes, but the same can be said for the Cincinnati Bengals. I mentioned the Offensive Line issues against the Cleveland Browns, but the Panthers are not generating as much pressure up front and so Joe Burrow and the passing game should be in much better sync all around than they were in the defeat to their Divisional rivals.
The Quarter Back should be helped by Joe Mixon, who should have a few more spaces to try and exploit up front, and I do think the Carolina Secondary will have a tough test stopping this Cincinnati passing game.
Losing Ja'Marr Chase is a blow, but the likes of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd can make up for the absence with a few more days working as top options for Joe Burrow.
I don't think the Panthers will roll over for the Cincinnati Bengals, but I do think the game coming up on Thursday Night Football will be a distraction for a 2-6 team. It is that much more of a distraction when you think of the way the Panthers were beaten by the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8 and this has to be factor on Sunday.
This is a lot of points to cover, but the Carolina Panthers are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games to add to the potential for being unfocused.
Cincinnati have a solid Quarter Back looking to bounce back from a loss and Joe Burrow is 12-4 against the spread following a defeat.
Playing after a blow out on Monday Night Football can be tough, but the Cincinnati Bengals should be able to exert their authority to move back above 0.500 ahead of their Bye Week.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Pick: Despite the record, the Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) are still in a position where you would think the PlayOffs has to be a goal they feel that can be achieved at the end of the 2022 regular season. However, Frank Reich is under some pressure in his fifth year with the Colts having not overseen one PlayOff win since 2018 after being well backed by the team.
The early retirement of Andrew Luck was clearly a blow, but Frank Reich has been given Carson Wentz and then Matt Ryan at Quarter Back, but both veterans have underperformed. Perhaps it is the last throw of the dice for the Head Coach, but benching Ryan in favour of youngster Sam Ehlinger has been a surprising move.
It isn't the only one with the Offensive Co-Ordinator out and a decision to trade away a Running Back who can have an impact for the Colts surprising many.
This is a big game for the Colts as they travel to face the New England Patriots (4-4) who won last week to ensure that every team in the AFC East has won at least four games. Unfortunately for the Patriots, they are currently propping up the Division, but a win in Week 9 ahead of their Bye Week will certainly have the players believing the PlayOffs are more than a possibility.
Mac Jones will continue to get the call at Quarter Back, although he is under pressure to make sure he keeps delivering. His backup, Bailey Zappe, showed how good he can be for the Patriots when relieving an injured Jones earlier in the season and some Patriots fans would prefer to see him behind Center, so Mac Jones has to make sure he manages the game without making the critical mistakes that saw New England embarrassed by the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football a couple of weeks ago.
This is not an easy match up for Jones at Quarter Back, who has been playing behind an Offensive Line that is a little banged up and struggling in pass protection. This Indianapolis Secondary have shown they can make big plays for the team and so the Patriots have to find a way to establish the run and see if they can control the clock.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been able to break some big runs for the Patriots and this may be a good game for him, especially as Damien Harris is expected to miss out. It has felt like Stevenson is the superior Running Back anyway and he is facing an Indianapolis Defensive Line which has had issues trying to contain the run in recent games.
There are still challenges for the Patriots on the Offensive side of the ball, but Bill Belichick can make things easier for them by confusing the young Quarter Back playing for the Colts.
Setting his Offense up in strong field position thanks to strong efforts from his Defensive unit will be the plan for the Patriots and I do think Belichick has a strong history of making things very difficult for inexperienced Quarter Backs like Sam Ehlinger. Usually you would expect the Colts to run the ball a lot in order to give Ehlinger the best possible chance of moving the chains, but they are likely without Jonathan Taylor and you have to imagine the Patriots are going to force the Colts to have to take to the air to move the chains.
I would be confident in someone like Matt Ryan being able to make the plays to hurt the Patriots in the Secondary, even after looking way short of the standards he had previously set while with the Atlanta Falcons, but it is harder to expect Sam Ehlinger to be able to do that. He is likely going to be faced up by a solid New England pass rush and you have to expect Bill Belichick to set his team up to take away the first passing option and force Ehlinger to have to go through his progressions.
That will be a real challenge for Sam Ehlinger, who also has to be aware of the ball-hawking nature of the New England Secondary.
I expect an Interception or two to be the difference for the home team and it is hard to ignore how effective Bill Belichick has been at confusing young Quarter Backs. That could help the New England Patriots pull clear in the second half in this one and help them record a vital win before going into the Bye Week and I do think New England can cover.
It is difficult to ignore the blow out loss suffered by the Patriots in their last home game, but they are facing a Colts team that is 1-4 against the spread in their last five on the road. Some may think the Patriots may not be focused after a Divisional win in Week 8, but they have a solid 9-2 record against the spread in their last eleven following a game against the New York Jets and I think the home team will back up that victory with another to stay in touch in what looks a loaded AFC East.
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is a rivalry between these two AFC rivals, but it is a surprise to see the Tennessee Titans (5-2) dominating the series as much as they have in recent years. They have won five in a row overall to take over the lead in the AFC South, but the Tennessee Titans are a massive underdog at the Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) who top the AFC West.
Some of that is down to the fact that Ryan Tannehill is still a doubt for the Titans at Quarter Back and last week they showed they don't really have a lot of trust in Malik Willis just yet. The rookie may be the future of the Titans passing game, but Head Coach Mike Vrabel wants to win now and the best chance is with Ryan Tannehill who will be a game-time decision.
Ultimately it doesn't matter who the Titans start at Quarter Back with the Offensive unit leaning on Derrick Henry.
The Running Back crushed the Houston Texans in Week 8 and he has calmed any suggestions that he is dealing with an injury that could see him ruled out of this big game. His numbers were huge in the win over the Texans, but Derrick Henry made it clear that the Offensive Line deserves a lot of the credit for opening the holes they have and I do think they can impose themselves on this Kansas City Defensive Line.
Of course if the Chiefs feel there is no risk in Willis beating them in the air, they can bring in more men to shut down Derrick Henry and that is where a returning Ryan Tannehill would be a big upgrade for the road team. The veteran Quarter Back is not asked to do much more than manage the game having seen AJ Brown traded away to the Philadelphia Eagles in the off-season, but his presence may keep the running lanes open for Henry as the Titans look to control the clock, limit possessions and keep the hot Kansas City Offensive unit cooling down on the sidelines.
Kansas City are coming out of a Bye Week and Andy Reid has long been considered one of the best Head Coaches when it comes to getting his players to perform after a rest. They comfortable beat the Denver Broncos out of a Bye Week last year, but Reid is now just 2-2 against the spread in the last four seasons out of the rest.
Any team that has Patrick Mahomes is going to be dangerous, but the Tennessee Titans may feel they can at least find a way to slow down this Offensive unit. After blowing out the San Francisco 49ers on the road, Kansas City will be playing with confidence, but they may not be able to establish the run against the Titans Defensive Line and so the focus will be on Mahomes at Quarter Back and his ability to find targets down the field.
Keeping Patrick Mahomes in third and somewhat long will at least give the Titans a chance to get their pass rush ramped up and get after the Quarter Back. That is absolutely essential if the Titans are going to earn the upset, but stopping the Chiefs completely is going to be almost impossible.
The Receiving corps has been bolstered by a trade for Kadarius Toney and the Chiefs have shown how efficient they can be when crushing the 49ers a couple of weeks ago. It certainly makes it very difficult to oppose them with any real confidence, but I do think the Titans can do enough at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to keep this one within a very big number.
As good as the Kansas City Chiefs are, they have failed to cover in their last four at home and their last five against the AFC overall.
At the same time, the Titans are 12-4 against the spread in their last sixteen games against a team with a winning record at home and I think Derrick Henry can pound the rock well enough to help them cover here.
MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 12.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Week 8: 5-2, + 5.16 Units (14 Units Staked, + 36.86% Yield)
Week 7: 5-3, + 3.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)
Week 6: 2-6, - 8.34 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.13% Yield)
Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)
Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)
Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
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