The final week of the College Football season is to be played over Thanksgiving Weekend before the attention turns to the Championship Games next week.
There are still some places to be earned in those games and those will be decided in the next couple of games.
It has been a difficult season for the College Football Picks compared with the NFL Picks, but it is the way it goes and you have to roll with the punches.
NC State Wolf Pack @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: The ACC Championship Game has already been set for next week with the Clemson Tigers facing the North Carolina Tar Heels (9-2), but this is rivalry week and the Tar Heels will be looking for a momentum boosting win. They were upset by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Week 12, a result that has ended North Carolina's slim hopes of making the College Football PlayOff, but beating their rival and winning the ACC Championship will have fans forgiving their team very quickly.
Focusing on this game will be a challenge with a Championship Game coming up, but the Tar Heels were beaten by the NC State Wolf Pack (7-4) last season and revenge is a big motivational tool in games like this one.
Injuries have really hurt the Wolf Pack as they have lost two in a row and they could be down to their third string Quarter Back for a second game in a row. MJ Morris is perhaps nearer to a return for NC State, but otherwise they will have to give the ball to Ben Finley who finished his last start with 201 passing yards and a single Touchdown and Interception.
There will be opportunities for whoever is able to start at Quarter Back for the Wolf Pack on Friday as there are some holes in the North Carolina Secondary which can be exploited. It helps that the Tar Heels are not able to get a lot of pass rush pressure generated in recent games and that should mean the NC State Offensive Line is able to at least give either Morris or Finley some time to find Receivers down the field.
Running the ball could be an issue for the Wolf Pack though and that does leave the Quarter Back under pressure to make plays from third and long spots. Lacking experience at the position means it can be tough to have a consistent success throwing the ball and that means the Wolf Pack will lean on the very good Defensive unit to try and keep them competitive on the scoreboard.
It has been a real test for teams to try and run the ball against the NC State Defensive Line all season, but in recent games they have really found some pride in clamping down on Running Backs. They will feel they win at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball and that will force North Carolina to become a little one-dimensional with their play-calling, although Drake Maye has been one of the top Quarter Backs in College Football.
Drake Maye has thrown 34 Touchdown passes with 4 Interceptions and he will have noticed the amount of yards that the Wolf Pack have given up through the air in recent games. However, it won't be easy for Maye to replicate that over and over as he is playing behind an Offensive Line which has struggled to give him the time he may have hoped for, and now they have to face a Wolf Pack pass rush which has been very happy when allowed to pin back their ears and get to the Quarter Back.
Shutting down the run has allowed the pass rush to thrive and, despite the yards being allowed, it does also lead to turnovers. That is something that Drake Maye will be concerned about as he looks to help his team bounce back, but I do think he is capable of doing that even if he has to take a few Sacks on the way.
Both teams are looking to bounce back from a loss, but the feeling is that the North Carolina Tar Heels have more Offensive output and that can see them pull clear eventually.
The Wolf Pack are just 7-19 against the spread in their last twenty-six on the road, while they are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight Conference games. The NC State Wolf Pack have also failed to cover in any of the last five in this rivalry and I do think they are lacking bite Offensively, which will see them struggle to keep up with North Carolina on the scoreboard.
Florida Gators @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: The regular season may be coming to an end for these two in-State rivals, but they can focus on this game knowing they have won the six games to become Bowl eligible for when those selections are made early next month.
You have to imagine the Florida State Seminoles (8-3) are very much aware they have lost the last three games in this rivalry, but this has been a big bounce back year after a number of lean campaigns. They are getting to host the game against the Florida Gators (6-5) this year and they are facing a wounded team that were just embarrassed by the Vanderbilt Commodores in a road loss in Week 12.
It is a loss that would have stung, but the Florida Gators have been beaten by the Tennessee Volunteers, LSU Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs amongst the other five defeats suffered in 2022 and those are losses to some of the very best teams in College Football. Two of those could easily be playing in the College Football PlayOff.
While this offers some encouragement, it has still been a disappointing season for the Gators and especially after the defeat last week. They are now facing a Florida State Defensive unit that have been the key to their successes this season and it could be a tough day for the Gators on this side of the ball.
There will be a healthy respect for the fact that the Seminoles are going to be taking on a SEC Offensive Line which has been able to establish the run, but Florida State have been strong on this side of the ball and have been able to clamp down on the run all season. If they can do that here, they will force the Florida Gators to rely on Antony Richardson to make plays with his arm against a Seminoles Secondary which have restricted teams to under 160 passing yards per game this season.
I do think the Gators will have their moments simply because of how well their Offensive Line are playing, but the consistency may be with the Florida State Offensive unit who should be able to find a balance to their play-calling. The Seminoles Offensive Line should be able to open up some holes to help the Running Backs get something going on the ground, and that should mean the play-action can be employed to attack this Secondary.
Jordan Travis has had a solid season at Quarter Back and he has been well protected by his Offensive Line when has dropped back to throw, so I do think Travis and the passing game will be able to operate effectively as well.
No should ignore the size of the spread and the ability of the Florida Gators to score late and earn the backdoor cover.
However, I do think a motivated Florida State Seminoles team will be pushed forward by the home fans and they can end their losing run in the series by winning by double digits. The favourite is 16-5 against the spread in the last twenty-one between these teams, while the Gators are 3-9 against the spread in their last twelve road games and 2-8 against the spread in their last ten non-Conference games.
A balanced Florida State Offensive unit can be more consistent on this side of the ball than the Florida Gators and that can see them cover.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Clemson Tigers Pick: A big defeat to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish looked to have ended the Clemson Tigers (9-1) hopes of making the College Football PlayOff, but things have changed in the three weeks since that loss. Others have fallen away from the top four Ranking places and the Tigers will have been grateful to rivals the South Carolina Gamecocks (7-4) were upsetting the Tennessee Volunteers in Week 12.
It was by far the best game of the season for Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks as they crushed the team many felt would have been invited into the PlayOff as long as they didn't suffer a second loss.
That win would have been celebrated by fans of the Clemson Tigers and the feeling is that they can push into the top four as long as they win their remaining two games, which includes the ACC Championship Game. With one of Ohio State or Michigan losing this week, and TCU barely surviving an upset of their own, the Clemson Tigers could be backed into the College Football PlayOff as a team with a single loss and a Conference Championship in the pocket.
After watching what happened last week, you can be certain that the Clemson Tigers will be focused on the South Carolina Gamecocks. However, the Offensive output from the Gamecocks really did come out of left field and was very unexpected so it will be interesting to see whether they can do the same against a strong Clemson Defensive unit.
The run was a huge part of the success that the Gamecocks had last week and I think they will be looking to establish the ground game in this one too. In recent games there have been one or two more gaps to hit against the Clemson Defensive Line, and it will be important for South Carolina to operate in front of the chains to give Spencer Rattler the chance to back up what has been arguably his most impressive College Football game ever.
The Quarter Back has struggled for much of the season, but carved up the Tennessee Secondary in Week 12, although Rattler will know this might be a more significant test. The Clemson pass rush has been a factor in their play, but since the defeat against the Fighting Irish, the Tigers Secondary have really knuckled down against the pass and will feel they can force Spencer Rsttler into uncomfortable positions considering he is only two weeks further forward since struggling against the Florida Gators.
A major reason the Clemson Tigers are perhaps not considered a genuine College Football PlayOff contender outside of others slipping up is the Offensive issues that have continued to plague them since Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne left for the NFL. They have scored 71 points in beating Louisville and Miami since the loss to Notre Dame, but this is not a unit that many would have associated with a Dabo Swinney coached team.
DJ Uiagalelei has not really stepped up at Quarter Back like many would have hoped and he has even been benched this season when struggling, but he may only need to hand the ball off to the Running Backs to keep the Tigers in front of the chains in this one. The Gamecocks have allowed teams to rip off some big gains on the ground in recent games and the Clemson Tigers will be looking to pick up from that and make sure Uiagalelei is in a position to win the game without having to do that on his own.
Establishing the run should open the passing lanes for DJ Uiagalelei and I think he can make some plays against this Secondary, while the Gamecocks pass rush may be slowed down in third and manageable spots. Turnovers- avoiding them more importantly- will be the key for the Tigers and playing a clean game could help them record one of their more impressive wins of the season, especially playing a South Carolina team that just crushed Tennessee.
The Tigers have dominated this rivalry in recent years and they are 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series.
They will also be facing a South Carolina team who are 3-8-1 against the spread in their last twelve on the road and one that has only produced a 2-8 record against the spread in their last ten games following a win.
I won't deny the spread is a big one, but I think the emotional Gamecocks could struggle to replicate the performance in the win over Tennessee and that will give the Clemson Tigers a chance to pull away for a big home win.
Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: An eight game losing run in The Game had been a cloud over the Jim Harbaugh era as Head Coach of the Michigan Wolverines (11-0), but they snapped that in 2021 and reached the College Football PlayOff for the first time. The win came in Ann Arbor, but this time the Wolverines are travelling to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) with the Big Ten East Division on the line.
The winning team will not only be punching their ticket into the Championship Game next weekend, but they will also be in pole position for one of the top four berths in the PlayOff Rankings. On the other hand, the losing team may struggle to finish above a couple of the other potential Conference Champions and may have their season effectively coming to an end on Thanksgiving Weekend.
It puts a lot of pressure on the players taking to the field and there should be a fierce atmosphere awaiting in the Stadium when they kick off on Saturday.
A major concern for the Wolverines has to be the health of Running Back Blake Corum who had to leave the tougher than expected win over the Illinois Fighting Illini in Week 12. Some of the lacklustre nature of the win may have been down to the players focusing on this game, but the Michigan Wolverines were a touch fortunate to come away with a win and will need to turn the switch if they are going to beat a team as strong as the Buckeyes.
Everything will be decided at the line of scrimmage when the Wolverines have the ball- their Offensive Line have been strong, but Michigan have not tried to run the ball against a Defensive Line as stout as the one Ohio State will be bringing onto their home field. Without Blake Corum it will be even tougher to establish the run, but even with the strong Running Back having a go, I do think the Buckeyes have shown they can clamp down on all up front.
You would then have to question whether Cade McNamara can do enough at Quarter Back to open up the running lanes and I am not sure he has the arm to do that. The entire Wolverines passing Offense has struggled as injuries have piled up and this Ohio State Secondary may be as good as any in College Football.
There will be a similar problem at the line of scrimmage on the other side of the ball as the Buckeyes try and establish the run against a strong Michigan Defensive Line. Throughout this season, the Wolverines have been incredibly tough to run against, but the question is once again whether they have faced any Offensive unit that can be compared with the one they will meet in Week 13.
That weakness of schedule has meant the Wolverines need the win arguably more than the Buckeyes, but I think the difference between these teams will be made at Quarter Back. I have some doubts about McNamara for the road team, but CJ Stroud has been having a Heisman level of season with 35 Touchdown passes thrown and only 4 Interceptions to go with those.
Michigan have played really well Defensively and have some talented players that are likely going to be playing at the next level, but the feeling is that Stroud will make more plays than McNamara at Quarter Back and that will be the reason the Ohio State are able to get the better of their old rivals.
Both are top teams, but this feels like a game that could develop in a similar way to when the Georgia Bulldogs beat the Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC- the latter had bigger wins than Michigan have produced this season, but Ohio State have long looked the best team in the Big Ten and I think the home advantage is also going to be very important to them.
More consistent play from Quarter Back will likely be the reason the Buckeyes are able to earn revenge for the defeat in 2021 and Ohio State are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five at home.
Over the last ten season, Michigan are only 6-11 against the spread as the road underdog and their last three visits to Columbus have ended in defeats by 29, 11 and 29 points. Covering this number won't be easy for the Buckeyes, but I think they may some late plays to produce a double digit victory on their way to the Big Ten Championship Game and the College Football PlayOffs.
MY PICKS: North Carolina Tar Heels - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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