The final week of the College Football season is Championship Week as the Bowl Games are also set up- of course the big question is which four teams will be invited into the College Football PlayOff.
Some of the decisions will be much easier for the Committee if the 'right' teams win their Championship Games this weekend, but it could quickly become a real challenge for those members if another tumultuous week comes out of the wash.
USC Trojans vs Utah Utes Pick: Beating the same team twice in a season is a huge challenge for any team playing in College Football or in the pros, but that is what the Utah Utes (9-3) will be facing as they look to secure back to back Pac-12 Championship title wins. After a 7-2 record in the Conference, the Utes have benefited from the removal of Divisions this season as they would have finished behind the 8-1 USC Trojans (11-1) when both were members of the South Division last season, and that despite being the only team to beat the Trojans this season.
This is a big game for the higher ups in the Pac-12 Conference as they will be looking to see if they can send a team to the College Football PlayOff- with the way things have broken down over the last month, the USC Trojans have pushed into the top four of the last set of Rankings and look to be in a position of 'win and you're in' when it comes to the eventual top four teams invited into the PlayOff.
It would be a remarkable end to the season for Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams in their first season in Southern California having both arrived from the Oklahoma Sooners in the off-season. Lincoln Riley had considerable success as Head Coach of the Sooners and guided them to the College Football PlayOff on three occasions so it was a surprise to see him head off to the USC Trojans, but even more so when he was able to transfer Quarter Back Williams with him.
No one would have really expected Riley to have the kind of impact he has had with the Trojans, who finished 4-8 last season and who have not enjoyed a double digit winning season since 2017. However, the Head Coach has been able to get plenty out of an Offensive unit that had eight returning starters and have been able to add Caleb Williams and was has been a potentially Heisman winning season to the mix.
Even in the defeat on the road at the Utah Utes, Caleb Williams and the USC Offensive unit had a huge game and they will feel a neutral setting in Las Vegas gives them a big chance to earn some revenge. Things will never be easy against a Kyle Whittingham led Utah Defensive unit, but the Trojans have to feel like they can replicate the huge yards they produced in the defeat in Salt Lake City.
Both the Florida Gators and UCLA Bruins have also had wins over the Utah Utes and the Bruins had over 500 total yards in that defeat too. In more recent times, the Utes have at least limited the Oregon Ducks Offense, although Oregon have not been playing at the same kind of level that the Trojans have found on a week to week basis.
Running the ball will be a challenge for the Trojans, but they established the ground game well enough in the defeat to the Utes in October. However, ultimately it is going to come down to Caleb Williams at Quarter Back and some of the big questions may be whether he has the confidence to handle the occasion knowing what is on the line for the Trojans.
Nothing suggests Williams will capitulate here and I think this could be another bow to hang on the Heisman Trophy he is now the favourite to win.
USC should have success moving the ball, but they will need the less experienced Defensive unit to step up and make some big plays. The Trojans Defensive Line will be pushed around by the Utah Offensive Line, who have opened monster holes in recent games, and that will at least give Cameron Rising at Quarter Back a chance to replicate the big performance he had in the narrow win over USC at home.
In recent games Cameron Rising has not really had to do a lot to win them, but he cannot afford to be as inaccurate as he was in the defeat to the Oregon Ducks. On that day Rising threw 3 Interceptions, which proved to be critical in the three point loss, while he only managed 170 yards in the loss.
It was a much different story when throwing for 415 yards and 2 Touchdown passes against the USC Trojans and I do think this game will follow that path more than the one against the Ducks. For all the plaudits received by the Trojans this season, the Secondary has been vulnerable and I do think Cameron Rising will have time to make his throws into his Receivers behind the Offensive Line that have protected him.
Overall it has been a good season for Cameron Rising so I do think he can have a good game in this Pac-12 Championship Game in Sin City. His experience of playing in this Championship Game last season cannot be underestimated and I do think the Trojans Secondary is one that can struggle to stop the pass, so I expect Quarter Back Rising to make sure the Utah Utes are competitive.
Cameron Rising did not have the best numbers in the Pac-12 Championship Game win over Oregon, but he will be feeling confident having played as well as he did against the Trojans earlier this season.
I expect this to at least help the narrow underdog and I do believe Utah will head into this game in Las Vegas with a lot of confidence in themselves and what they can achieve. That can be hard to shake, no matter how good the USC Trojans are, but it is also hard to ignore the fact that the Utah Utes are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games against a team with a winning record.
We have also seen the adjustments Lincoln Riley has been able to make following a defeat in the regular season when playing the same opponent again during his time with the Oklahoma Sooners- he played the same team twice in a single season four times and Riley and the Sooners won the second game four times, while also producing a 3-1 record against the spread.
In the two games lost in the regular season, Lincoln Riley oversaw two Championship Game wins and covered the spread both times and I think he will have prepared the USC Trojans that they can just about top Utah Utes this time. The game in the regular season was won by the Utes with 48 seconds left on the clock and it was a two point conversion that took them over the line, but this time I expect the Trojans to score the last points in a win that will take them into the College Football PlayOff.
TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas State Wildcats Pick: I have already made the point this week that it is incredibly difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, but like the Pac-12 Championship, the Big 12 Championship will be settled in a rematch. This happens in the Conference regularly in the current format which sees all of the teams face one another in the same standings and three of the last four Championships have been won by the team that LOST in the regular season.
That bodes well for the Kansas State Wildcats (9-3) as they bid to end the TCU Horned Frogs (12-0) unbeaten season for a second time. When they met in Fort Worth in mid-October, the Horned Frogs were forced to recover from a big deficit to beat the Wildcats at home, but this Big 12 Championship Game will be played on the neutral field owned by the Dallas Cowboys.
Neutral field games are tougher, but you would imagine the TCU Horned Frogs will be well supported with just 18 miles between their campus and the Stadium hosting the Championship Game. The Horned Frogs will be looking to confirm their unbeaten season and earn their spot in the College Football PlayOff on Saturday, although they will be well aware that the Committee may look down on them unfavourably if they are not able to win the game.
Sonny Dykes and the Coaching staff will feel that is harsh on the Horned Frogs, but they control their own destiny having escaped some tough positions to remain unbeaten through the course of the season. One of those was against the Wildcats when trailing by 18 points in the first half, but the blow out win over the Iowa State Cyclones in Week 13 will have certainly made the Horned Frogs feel much happier ahead of the Championship Game.
The Horned Frogs had not really been ticking along as comfortably as they had been earlier in the season, but Max Duggan and company have to be feeling better after the win last week. They will also look back on the win over the Wildcats and the way they played in the second half as a huge amount of encouragement in their bid to win again.
After some recent troubles, I do think the Horned Frogs will be able to establish the run in this game, which is important for Max Duggan at Quarter Back. Being in front of the chains should make it easier for Duggan to attack this Wildcats Secondary and the Kansas State Defensive Line have struggled to clamp down on the run consistently all season.
Throwing against the Wildcats from third and long spots is a tough challenge for any team, but if Max Duggan is playing in front of the chains, I expect him to have another strong outing. He threw for 280 yards and 3 Touchdown passes in the home win over the Wildcats in October and I do think the Horned Frogs will have a relatively solid outing again.
The bigger impact may come from the Defensive unit, who have really improved in each passing week as TCU have run the table.
Much will depend on how they handle the line of scrimmage, but in the first meeting the Horned Frogs Defensive Line clamped down on Deuce Vaughn and the Wildcats running game, even if they did give up one huge run to the Running Back. You can't expect to hold him back forever, but stopping Vaughn picking up some momentum is the key and TCU have shown they can do that once already and continue to play pretty efficiently on the Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run.
It is expected to be Will Howard at Quarter Back in place of Adrian Martinez again for Kansas State, but Howard has played enough to be comfortable even in this pressurised setting. Will Howard has 13 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions on the season and threw for 225 yards in the first game with the Horned Frogs (2 Touchdown passes-1 Interception) in relief of Martinez.
This Horned Frogs Secondary is pretty tough to throw against with any consistency thanks to the ability to force teams into third and long spots and that is going to be a challenge for Will Howard in all likelihood. I think there are one or two holes that Howard will exploit, but it could be another tough test for the Wildcats who live and die by their ability to run the ball.
Kansas State had won three in a row in this series before losing in October and they are a well Coached team who will have learned from that experience.
They have been in good form down the stretch, which also makes the Wildcats dangerous, but I do think they will come up short against the TCU Horned Frogs who look to match up pretty well with Kansas State on both sides of the ball.
Both of these teams have been covering machines at the window this season, but I have to give TCU the edge and this could be one of those rare two wins in a single season over the same opponent for a team in College Football.
Georgia Bulldogs vs LSU Tigers Pick: They may be the defending National Champions and favourites to win it all in January, but the Georgia Bulldogs (12-0) have not won the SEC Championship since beating Auburn in 2017. Since then, the Bulldogs have reached the Championship Game three times and lost each time, although last season they earned revenge over the Alabama Crimson Tide in the National Championship Game.
This year they are perhaps surprised to be faced by the LSU Tigers (9-3), the school that beat the Bulldogs in 2019, especially as the Tigers are in the first season with Brian Kelly at Head Coach. The Tigers have finished 5-5 and 6-7 in the two years since winning the National Championship with an unbeaten team led by Joe Burrow, but they edged out the Crimson Tide for the place in the SEC Championship Game thanks to the tie-breaker of going for a two point conversion and beating Alabama in Overtime.
Last week was a disappointment for the Tigers who were beaten by the Texas A&M Aggies despite being a double digit favourite going into the game. Some will feel they were overlooking the Aggies and focusing on the SEC Championship Game, but it is a defeat that has serious ramifications of keeping LSU out of the College Football PlayOffs even if they were to upset the odds on Saturday.
Not many would have anticipated the SEC Champions failing to make the final four in College Football, but the defeats on the record are hard to ignore. Of course the Tigers could have wins over both Alabama and Georgia on the CV, but two blow out losses to the Aggies and the Tennessee Volunteers are hard to accept, and even more so when you consider the Florida State Seminoles have beaten LSU this season too.
Brian Kelly and his players won't be worrying too much about where they may sit in any College Football Ranking and their sole concern is winning the SEC Championship. This alone would be a remarkable achievement for the school that has struggled without Joe Burrow, although it will take a monumental upset to see that come to fruition.
It is simply difficult to imagine the LSU Tigers having a lot of Offensive success in this one when their unit is powered by a running game that is going to have a tough time establishing anything against this Georgia Defensive Line. The Tigers are going to need John Emery and the Offensive Line to be at their best if they are going to have any chance and that is as much to do with the injury to Jayden Daniels at Quarter Back as anything else.
Running the ball is clearly the ambition for the Tigers, but it doesn't help that their starting Quarter Back is banged up to say the least. They do feel he has escaped a serious injury, but Daniels is not going to be effective running the ball as usual and it is not going to be much fun standing behind this Offensive Line and hoping for protection in third and long spots.
Throwing the ball against this Secondary from those positions are hard enough when fully healthy and I do think Jayden Daniels could be in a tough spot for much of the afternoon.
The pressure may then be on the LSU Defense to step up and try and slow down the Bulldogs on the other side of the ball, but I am not sure they are going to be as effective at clamping down on the run as Georgia are expected to be. The Tigers Defensive Line has played well, but they have allowed huge numbers on the ground in the losses to SEC opponents Tennessee and Texas A&M and I expect the committee run by the Bulldogs to have success and keep Stetson Bennett in a strong position at Quarter Back.
Stetson Bennett is effectively a game-manager for the Georgia Bulldogs at Quarter Back, but he has to be credited for throwing for over 3100 yards this season and has added 16 Touchdowns with 6 Interceptions. Recent outings have not been as consistent as Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs would have liked, but Bennett is capable enough of making plays behind an Offensive Line which will give him time.
He may not need to do a lot, but Stetson Bennett can do what is asked of him and help the Georgia Bulldogs win a first SEC Championship since 2017.
The spread is a big one, but things could get out of hand for the LSU Tigers if they are having to chase and Jayden Daniels is not able to move as much as he would like. They were blown out by the Tennessee Volunteers in Baton Rouge and I am anticipating Georgia to look to make a statement, even if the oddsmakers have tended to get on top of their number.
An experienced Bulldogs Offensive unit should be extra motivated having lost the Championship Game last season in the Conference and I do think they are much stronger on both sides of the ball. A statement win could also give their College Football PlayOff rivals plenty to think about, while Smart and his Coaching staff will not have forgotten the 27 point beat down given to them by the LSU Tigers in the 2019 Championship Game.
I think that all leads to the Georgia Bulldogs looking to win big and covering this mark.
Clemson Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: There was a long period where the Clemson Tigers (10-2) were an annual College Football PlayOff team representing the ACC Conference. However, this looks like being the second season in a row where the Conference will miss out on the final four after the Tigers were upset by the South Carolina Gamecocks last week.
They will still have a chance to win the ACC Championship when taking on the North Carolina Tar Heels (9-3) in what is the final season where Divisions will be used in the Conference. These two teams finished with the best records in the ACC regardless, but late defeats for both the Tigers and the Tar Heels have proved to be fatal in ending their bids to reach the College Football PlayOff.
A crazy final week may still open the door for the Tigers if they can win this game, but it is a long shot and winning the ACC Championship Game will be the big motivation. Some players may be disappointed that they cannot play in the PlayOffs, but that shouldn't take away from winning a Conference Championship considering the Tigers failed to even make the Championship Game twelve months ago.
In fact the Tigers have not won the ACC Championship since 2019 and so there is plenty for the team to achieve even if they have fallen short of their main goal for the season. Inconsistent Offensive performances have really held Clemson back through the course of 2022, but they should feel pretty comfortable matching up against this Tar Heels Defensive unit, which has been struggling.
Clamping down on the run has been one aspect of the North Carolina Defense that has been working well in recent games, but I am not sure the Defensive Line will be able to get the better of the Clemson Offensive Line. Moving the ball on the ground has been where the Tigers have been able to get their Offensive unit going, especially as it has eased some of the pressure on DJ Uiagalelei, who has continued to be a disappointment at Quarter Back.
DJ Uiagalelei is likely going to have an opportunity to have a strong game in this one with the limited pass rush that North Carolina have been able to generate of late and a Tar Heels Secondary that has struggled to make stops. He is very difficult to trust when you think of the completely inconsistent level he has produced throughout his College career, but I think the Quarter Back will be helped by the run and that should see the Tigers continue to churn out the points.
In reality the 10-2 record has been built on the Defensive unit and that is going to be the key for the Clemson Tigers yet again. They will know all about Drake Maye at Quarter Back for North Carolina considering the Tigers wanted to recruit him, but stopping him will be a tough challenge after the year Maye has had.
The edge that the Tigers do have is on the line of scrimmage and they will feel the Defensive Line can largely shut down the North Carolina ability to establish the run and leave Drake Maye to make the plays through the air. There is no doubting that he can have success, but Maye will be under pressure behind a Tar Heels Offensive Line which has not provided the kind of time he will need in third and long spots and especially not against the Clemson pass rush, which has been getting to the Quarter Back regularly in recent games thanks to the run stuffing ability of the Defensive Line.
Drake Maye won't be shut down completely, but he will have to be careful with his accuracy if he is going to guide the Tar Heels to the upset and that may be too tall a task. Back to back losses will have knocked the North Carolina confidence and I do think the Tigers Defensive unit will step up and make enough plays to give their team the chance to win this Championship Game.
Both teams have been inconsistent at the betting window this season and they can be difficult to trust having underwhelmed for much of the year.
However, the Clemson Tigers are a bit more experienced than the North Carolina Tar Heels and they should have enough Defense to edge to the cover of this spread.
Michigan Wolverines vs Purdue Boilermakers Pick: Winning in Columbus is never easy, but winning by the margin that the Michigan Wolverines (12-0) was very impressive. Barring something strange happening, the Wolverines have to believe they can win the Big Ten Championship and return to the College Football PlayOff for a second season in a row.
Cade McNamara has decided he will be transferring away from the Wolverines at the end of the season, but the focus for the team has to be on the Purdue Boilermakers (8-4) who won the Big Ten West with a 6-3 Conference record. The Spoilermakers have regularly upset teams over the last couple of seasons so overlooking them will be a mistake, while there should be plenty of motivation in Purdue to play hard for their Quarter Back Aidan O'Connell.
In Week 13, Aidan O'Connell threw for 290 yards and 2 Touchdown passes with no Interceptions as the Boilermakers beat the Indiana Hoosiers and took their place in the Big Ten Championship Game. The performance was all the more remarkable considering O'Connell had found out his brother Sean had passed away prior to the game and he has been given some time off to grieve with his family.
Everyone expects Aidan O'Connell to return to play in the Championship Game and his team-mates are going to want to give their absolute all in support of a player that is much admired. This is a crushing time for the Quarter Back and Football may not be his biggest priority right now, but there is also no doubt that Aidan O'Connell will return to the team with full focus and that makes him dangerous.
Of course he is facing a Wolverines Defensive unit that is stout, but Aidan O'Connell's grief can be a powerful motivational tool in sports and I have a real belief that he is going to have a massive performance on Saturday. Ultimately it may not be good enough for the upset, but it will make the Boilermakers dangerous.
Running the ball won't be easy, but I don't think Purdue will move too far away from the game plan being produced this week. They just want to make sure O'Connell is given a chance to throw from favourable down and distances, while the Purdue Offensive Line should offer their Quarter Back a little bit of time in the pocket to hit his Receivers.
It will be a tough day for the Boilermakers, but they can make this competitive, although the Michigan Wolverines should be able to come through with a victory that takes them into the College Football PlayOff.
Blake Corum is still banged up for the Wolverines, while JJ McCarthy has not been asked to do a lot at Quarter Back in keeping Michigan's Offensive unit ticking along. The Wolverines showed how efficiently they can run the ball even without Corum last week in the win over the Buckeyes, but this is another stout Defensive Line they are facing and without the same kind of emotion they would have had going into Columbus.
Only a couple of weeks ago the Illinois Fighting Illini made things very uncomfortable for the Wolverines on the Offensive side of the ball and I do think Purdue can do the same in this one.
It may then come down to JJ McCarthy and his arm to help the Wolverines win the game, although the Quarter Back is going to be facing a Boilermakers Secondary which have stepped up their level of play down the stretch. I do think McCarthy will have success, but it may not be as consistent as will be needed to help Michigan cover what is a pretty big number.
I have to respect the fact that the Wolverines crushed the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game last season after finally beating the Ohio State Buckeyes under Jim Harbaugh so they could come out and crush the Purdue Boilermakers. However, I am expecting the underdog to play at their very highest level to support their Quarter Back and Purdue should be able to reach 20 points, which may be enough to cover.
The Spoilermakers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record and clearly enjoy the challenges of facing the stronger teams. A lack of Championship Game experience is a concern, but the motivation of the Purdue players should help them keep this one close and competitive.
MY PICKS: Buffalo Bulls - 11.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers + 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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