The last three weeks of the NFL season should be incredibly tense with plenty for teams to achieve.
PlayOff places, Seeding within the Conferences and Divisional races look to come down to the wire, although the weather is a factor at play over the next few days.
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Six wins in seven games has dragged the Detroit Lions (7-7) into the Wild Card Race in the NFC and Head Coach Dan Campbell is looking for his team to maintain their push. Two big Divisional games will wrap up the season, but the Lions cannot afford to overlook any team they face down the stretch as they look to move past the Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders for the final NFC PlayOff place.
Winning on Saturday will put the pressure on those two immediate rivals for the post-season, especially as both Seattle and Washington have very tough road games to be played.
This is anything but an easy game for the Detroit Lions as they travel to the Carolina Panthers (5-9), a team fortunate to be playing in the NFC South which is likely going to be a Division which produces a PlayOff team with a losing record. The Panthers are only a game behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a tight Division and winning it will also come with at least one home PlayOff game next month so there is plenty for the Carolina Panthers to achieve, even after a disappointing defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
It is going to be very cold at kick off on Saturday and that could be an advantage for the home team- Detroit may not come from a warm weather climate, but they are a team that play indoors and so the conditions will not be ones they particularly enjoy, although the NFC North team will not be making excuses as they try and secure an important road win.
The Detroit Lions will have made some headlines with some of the performances from the Offensive unit, but they will be thanking those on the other side of the ball for propelling this run that has pushed them to the edge of the PlayOff places. They likely will know exactly what to expect from Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers and recent weeks suggest the Detroit Lions can deal with what is going to be in front of them.
Running the ball is the key for the Panthers- they were not able to do that against Baltimore or Pittsburgh over the last month and have lost both of those games, but averaged 200 rushing yards in wins over Denver and Carolina in between those defeats. No one should be shocked by any Carolina approach which relies on the run, but the Detroit Lions Defensive Line have stiffened in recent games and I think the Lions win at the line of scrimmage.
There are passing lanes to be exploited, as even Zach Wilson showed last week, but I don't think you can trust Sam Darnold and the Panthers to really expose them. The Panthers Receiving corps isn't filled with a lot of top names and Sam Darnold is not the most accurate of Quarter Backs, while Darnold is going to be feeling a pretty fierce pass rush whenever he is left in third and long spots.
I am not expecting a huge Offensive game from Carolina, but I also think the Detroit Lions will have one or two issues moving the chains with consistency is this big Week 16 game.
All credit has to be given to Jared Goff and the Coaching staff for the improvements made by the Detroit Lions, but they will need a little more out of the run game in this one. Moving the ball against the Carolina Defensive Line is not always easy, but the Lions will want to stay in front of the marker rather than forcing Jared Goff to test a very good Secondary from third and long spots.
The Quarter Back will get more time than Sam Darnold when it comes to throwing the ball down the field thanks to the tough Detroit Offensive Line, but this does feel like a low-scoring game that could come to turnovers.
My feeling is that Dan Campbell's team will be the ones who are a little more careful with the ball and I think that will be key for the Lions as they bid for back to back road wins to keep the pressure on those above them in the NFC standings.
I have to respect the conditions and how tough they could be for the Detroit Lions, but this looks a poor match up for the 5-9 Carolina Panthers who are 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen at home. At the same time Detroit have been a covering machine this season with seven straight covers and they are 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen road games and I do think the Lions can cover again.
Detroit haven't been favoured on the road yet this season and that is a factor that also has to be given plenty of consideration as the sense of expectation builds a different kind of pressure.
However, I do think the Lions are well Coached and they can do just enough to win and cover and keep the momentum behind them through to the final two weeks of the regular season.
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears Pick: The weather is going to be frigid and the wind is set to get up which makes it very tough to imagine there will be a lot of successful passing in this one. The Buffalo Bills (11-3) earned a vital win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 15, which leaves them one win, or one Miami loss, from winning the AFC East.
At this stage of the season, the Buffalo Bills will be thinking much deeper than simply winning their Division as they remain in control of the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. Home field advantage through to the Super Bowl and a Bye through to the Divisional Round can be big factors in the post-season, especially in the new format of the PlayOffs, and I think that will keep the Buffalo Bills focused off a Divisional win.
Of course this has to still be considered a look-ahead spot for the Bills as they will be facing the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17, another huge Conference game that could have PlayOff implications for next month. It certainly raises some question as to why the Buffalo Bills will want to blow out the Chicago Bears (3-11) and cover the number and I am leaning towards the home underdog to come out with the spread win.
Last week the Bears pushed the Philadelphia Eagles in a five point home loss and I think the conditions should not bother the Chicago Offensive unit. Passing the ball has been secondary for the Bears this season, but Justin Fields and the rushing attack has been working very efficiently and it certainly suggests they can keep this one close.
Justin Fields has really grown into the season and the next step for his development will be the Bears bringing in some strong Receiving threats and upgrading the Offensive Line. The scrambling ability has been on display over the last several weeks, while designed runs have really worked for Justin Fields and his skill-set and I do think the Bears will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Buffalo Bills.
Last week Raheem Mostert had a big outing against the Bills Defensive Line, although that may have had something to do with the Bills respecting the passing power of the Miami Dolphins. They may be less inclined to do that this week, but Buffalo are also facing a Quarter Back with a genuine running threat, one that can make teams think again about tackling and chasing these players in a game where they may not be as focused as they have been in Conference games.
The feeling is that the Chicago Bears will have success running the ball, but the Buffalo Bills will also be pretty confident in their ability to move the ball.
He may not have the numbers of Justin Fields, but Josh Allen is more than capable of toughing it out on the ground at Quarter Back and the Bills in general should be confident in their rushing attack. The conditions might not be ideal for the pass, but they are facing a Chicago Defensive Line that has given up plenty of yards on the ground as injury and trades of key Defensive players have slowed them down.
Josh Allen is likely going to take a few more shots throwing in the Secondary than the Chicago Bears, but the conditions will make it tougher for him. He has also not been at his very best in recent games as the elbow issue from earlier in the season has perhaps been holding Allen back, and I do think this has the makings of a relatively close game as the Bears played against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15.
Being able to run the ball as they have will be key for Chicago and I think they can be backed as the home underdog with the amount of points being given to them.
Recent trends for the Chicago Bears are not very encouraging and they have lost plenty of games by wide margins, but the Buffalo Bills have not blown out a lot of teams of late. Only one of their last seven games has been won by more than an 8 point margin and I think the Bears have the hook on that number, which should be enough to at least earn a backdoor cover in the cold, cold conditions expected.
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Week 15 was a memorable one for both the Minnesota Vikings (11-3) and New York Giants (8-5-1) and they prepare for face off against one another with a real chance that this could be a Wild Card PlayOff Game next month.
The Vikings made history by overcoming a 33 point deficit on their way to beating the Indianapolis Colts at home and that is the largest deficit any team has ever recovered from to win a game in the history of the NFL. They have secured the NFC North, but the Vikings are still looking to lock down the Number 2 Seed which will mean having an opportunity to play two home PlayOff games at the very least in any run towards the Super Bowl.
For the New York Giants, late zebra interference helped them edge past the Washington Commanders and now New York are in a very strong position to make the PlayOffs. They still need a win or two to confirm a top seven finish in the NFC, and they are on a relative short week compared with the Minnesota Vikings, as well as dealing with the emotions of winning the game on the road at Washington.
There will have been plenty of emotional investment from the Vikings too, but the last home game until mid-January should mean there is a touch more to give from Minnesota.
They are a team that have perhaps been weaker than the current record suggests and I do think that will hopefully give us one or two more chances to oppose Minnesota before the end of the 2022 season, but the New York Giants are another who have overcome the numbers to produce their own record.
With that in mind, it is strange to see the Minnesota Vikings being asked to cover more than a Field Goal worth of points even though the schedule spot is arguably better for them than the New York Giants.
In recent games the Vikings have become a little one-dimensional with some struggles to run the ball as effectively as you would think with a player like Dalvin Cook at Running Back. They are going to be without Garrett Bradbury this week and that may be an issue for the Offensive Line, although I am also expecting Cook to have a stronger showing against a New York team that was being trampled by the Washington rushing attack in Week 15.
It will be a huge boost for Kirk Cousins at Quarter Back to see his team running the ball with any kind of consistency. Being in front of the marker is huge for Cousins and it will open up the Minnesota passing attack, while also making sure that the New York pass rush is just slowed down a touch.
Ultimately though, I do think the Giants pass rush will be able to make some plays that can slow down the Vikings Offensively. That was the key in holding the Commanders to 12 points last week, as well as some dubious officiating, and I do think the New York Defensive unit can give their Offense a chance to keep this one competitive.
Running the ball is the key for the New York Giants and Saquon Barkley looked like he was close to his best in the win over Washington last week. He should be able to pick up from where he left off and pound the rock successfully in this game, which in turn should make life for Daniel Jones that much more comfortable at the Quarter Back position.
Daniel Jones has had a strong season in a contract year and he has been playing well despite the injuries dominating the New York Receiving corps.
The Quarter Back is a threat to run the ball, but being in third and manageable should also mean he can attack this Minnesota Secondary which has given up plenty of yards through the air all season.
There isn't the consistency that the likes of Justin Jefferson can provide for the team on the other sidelines, but the New York Giants are doing the best they can with what they have in the Receiving unit. Darius Slayton has stepped up at times and the Giants should be able to have plenty of success Offensively, which should allow them to keep this game close on the scoreboard.
For all the successes the Minnesota Vikings have had this season, they are just 1-6-1 against the spread in their last seven Conference games, while the New York Giants are 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road.
A backdoor cover for the Giants has to be a possibility in this game and I think getting the hook over a key number is good enough to back the road team to cover, even if they are not quite able to win this one.
Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Three road losses in a row have dented some of the confidence, but the Miami Dolphins (8-6) at least showed in the Week 15 loss at the Buffalo Bills that they can compete with the very best in the NFL. The losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers, especially the Chargers, were more disappointing, but the Dolphins remain in a position where they control their path into the PlayOffs.
The AFC East race is run after the narrow defeat to the Bills, but the Dolphins will return home for this Christmas Day showdown feeling like an opportunity is in front of them. Despite needing to earn a Wild Card spot, finishing with the Number 5 Seed in the AFC would mean a game against the AFC South Divisional winner and that is one that the Miami Dolphins will believe they can win.
If they can win out, the Dolphins have every chance of earning that coveted spot, but they will want to get back to winning ways regardless if only to have some momentum to take into the post-season.
They are hosting the Green Bay Packers (6-8) on a short week, but Aaron Rodgers has helped his team win two in a row to just about stay alive in the NFC. Like the Dolphins, the Green Bay Packers are out of the NFC North Divisional race, but they still have an opportunity to sneak into the PlayOffs.
And much like the Dolphins, Aaron Rodgers knows his team need to win out if they are going to earn the Number 7 Seed in the NFC. They will finish up with back to back home games, but this looks to be the toughest test left for the Packers who have not been the kind of team we associate with Rodgers in the NFL.
Instead of being a high-octane passing Offensive unit, the Green Bay Packers have relied on their tandem at Running Back to pound the rock to move into successful positions. Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been very productive, but this game looks a tougher test than recent outings with the Miami Dolphins Defensive Line controlling the line of scrimmage and clamping down on the run.
Doing the same here will put some pressure on Aaron Rodgers and his Receivers, who have not always been on the same page, and I am not sure they can take advantage of some of the holes in the Miami Secondary. You can never write off Rodgers completely, but there is enough evidence this season to think it could be another inconsistent passing day and the Quarter Back is also likely to feel plenty of heat from a much improved Miami pass rush if the Packers are left in obvious passing situations.
Green Bay would love to control the line of scrimmage Offensively, but may not have a lot of success doing that. On the other hand, the Miami Offensive Line has been busting out some big holes for Raheem Mostert to exploit and I think they can pick up from where they left off against the Buffalo Bills last week.
For a number of seasons it has been clear that stopping the run has been a huge problem for the Green Bay Packers are there are going to be some big lanes for Mostert in this one. The Packers Secondary haven't played badly, but that is also down to the fact that teams have not needed to test them as much and I think this Miami Offensive unit will be able to open up the passing lanes with the grinding done on the ground.
The last three games have seen Miami produce inconsistent passing efforts, but they have been better at home all season and I think that shows up here.
For some reason Aaron Rodgers has tended to dislike playing in Florida and I think Miami will do enough to win this Christmas Day offering and cover the spread.
The Dolphins are 20-8 against the spread in their last twenty-eight home games and the Packers are just 3-7 against the spread in their last ten on the road. I think the Dolphins will get back on track Offensively with a better balance in their play-calling than Green Bay are likely to manage and it should lead to a late score to put them over the line.
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: At the start of the season, the schedule makers would have set this non-Conference game for Week 16 and expected some huge PlayOff implications on the line. Instead it has been a miserable year for both the Denver Broncos (4-10) and defending Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams (4-10).
It isn't even like they have a motivation to tank down the stretch with both teams trading away First Round Draft Picks and the season cannot end quickly enough at this point.
Nathaniel Hackett perhaps needs the wins more in order to avoid a firing at the end of his first season as Head Coach of the Denver Broncos. He has been massively criticised for some of the decisions made, but you have to say it was very hard to envision Russell Wilson struggling as much as he has through the course of 2022.
After suffering a concussion in his best game of the season against the Kansas City Chiefs, Russell Wilson missed a game before being declared ready to go for this Week 16 Christmas Day game. Next week the Broncos have a rematch with Kansas City and would love to at least dent their Divisional rivals season, but even a less than fully focused Denver team should have too much for the injury hit Los Angeles Rams playing on a short week.
Injuries have crushed the Rams through the 2022 season and they were miserable in the loss to the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football. Baker Mayfield may have produced a huge drive to beat the Las Vegas Raiders just days after arriving in Los Angeles, but he was battered and bruised by the Packers and now faces a Denver Defensive unit that have played hard this season through trying circumstances.
A banged up Offensive Line is unlikely to keep the Broncos from flooding into the backfield having continued to find a strong push up front, even after trading Bradley Chubb to the Miami Dolphins. A strong Defensive Line has not given up a lot of running room and that means Mayfield is likely going to be throwing under continued duress in this one.
Cooper Kuup is a huge miss from the Receiving corps and I think the Rams will struggle to move the ball with any consistency against the Denver Defense.
The same could be said of Denver when they have the ball, even with a returning Russell Wilson, but I do think they will have enough success to win and cover here.
With the injuries suffered on this side of the ball, the Los Angeles Rams have allowed teams to have more joy in running the ball and keeping Russell Wilson in third and manageable would be a big win for Denver. They have not protected Wilson that well, but he should be able to get the ball out of his hands quickly to keep the chains moving and the Broncos are expected to be the stronger team Offensively, even with the next game on deck serving as a possible distraction.
Russell Wilson looked to be getting on the same page as his Receivers in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs so the feeling is that he will put the Broncos in a position to win on the road.
No one will doubt the Coaching edge that the Rams have in this match up, but ultimately you can't account for the injury issues and the short week and I think Denver can be backed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: Someone has to win the NFC South and it is becoming more and more likely that whichever team that is will be hosting a PlayOff game with a losing record. At the moment the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8) remain a game clear in the Division and that despite losing three of their last four games, and they are in control of their own destiny with games against the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons to close out the season.
This has been an ugly season filled with mistake after mistake and the Buccaneers were punished for a terrible second half in their defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15. Turnovers were fatal to their chances of winning the game and Tampa Bay will be kicking themselves having produced 159 yards more Offensively than the Bengals needed to do.
At least this week Tampa Bay have a chance to give their fans a delayed Christmas present by winning this game on the road when they head West to take on the Arizona Cardinals (4-10). Elimination from the PlayOffs have been confirmed for a team hit hard by injury and the Cardinals will actually be playing with a third string Quarter Back, which does not help their chances of snapping a four game losing run.
Colt McCoy went down with an early injury in Week 15 and has been ruled out so Trace McSorley will be making his first NFL start of his career with his second team in the professional game. He came in and struggled last week, but McSorley will have been working with the first team this week and ultimately cannot be any worse than the previous game.
Even with that in mind, it is going to be tough for the Quarter Back considering the lack of success the Cardinals are likely to have when it comes to running the ball. In recent games the Buccaneers Defensive Line have clamped down on the run and I do think they will be focused on containing Arizona and forcing the inexperienced Quarter Back to try and beat them through the air.
The Arizona Offensive Line has not offered a lot of pass protection so Trace McSorley is going to have to scramble around the pocket and potentially try and pick up yards with his legs. It will be difficult for him to play against an improving Tampa Bay Defensive unit and I do think some of the schemes will be designed to confuse McSorley when he does drop back to throw.
Moving the ball will be an incredible challenge for the Cardinals, but Tampa Bay have shown some signs of life on the Offensive side of the ball in recent games and should have more success. Tom Brady has been guilty of one or two mistakes, which is not like him, but he does have Receiving threats that should be able to expose the Arizona Secondary.
This game also represents a good chance for Tampa Bay to establish the run, which has been a season-long struggle for the team, and that should only aid Tom Brady that much more.
His Offensive Line will have some issues keeping the Cardinals out of the backfield, but being in front of the chains allows Tom Brady to negate the pressure with quick throws and I do think the Buccaneers will win this game.
Make no mistake, it is a very big spread considering the kind of season Tampa Bay have had, but Arizona look to be playing out the string and will be expecting a high Draft choice. The Cardinals are just 3-10 against the spread in their last thirteen at home and I do think they will have issues on both sides of the ball in this one as they play their final game in this Stadium in 2022.
It is not easy trusting the road team, but the Buccaneers can earn a rare cover in 2022 with a strong win by around ten to thirteen points here.
MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Giants + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
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