It has been a pretty miserable season for the College Football Picks in 2022 and sometimes it is just the way it goes.
Frustration aside, we are down to the Bowl Games and I am going to split the post-season into two threads with a final one being made for the National Championship Game in January. The first thread will largely be focusing from schools outside of the Power 5 Conferences, but the second thread should cover the two College Football PlayOff Semi Final games as well as the big New Year's Eve and New Year's Day Bowl Games.
I will add games to this thread through to December 27th, which is half way through the Bowl Season.
Friday 16th December
Miami (Ohio) Redhawks vs UAB Blazers Pick: Things are pretty clear for the two teams lucky enough to be opening the 2022 Bowl Season in the beautiful Bahamas and a winning record will be the reward for the team that can focus the best. On the other hand, a defeat will mean a losing season in 2022 and that should at least focus the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (6-6) and UAB Blazers (6-6).
There is no doubt that playing in this location is a big test for the players with the distraction of the surroundings one that can be difficult to ignore.
Miami (Ohio) came up well short of expectations in the MAC, but they are in line to avoid their first losing season since 2017. Wins in three of their last four games have given them some momentum and the Redhawks are 1-1 outright, but 2-0 against the spread, in their last two Bowl appearances as they prepare for the extra game for the third time in four years.
Head Coach Chuck Martin has to be given credit for the way the Redhawks have played, but this is far from an easy match up for them Offensively. The struggles to run the ball have been a hindrance to the Redhawks approach and I am not sure the Offensive Line can take advantage of the main weakness of the Blazers Defensive unit.
Being unable to establish the run with any consistency will mean throwing from tough positions and that is where the Redhawks Offensive Line has had issues of late when it comes to protecting Aveon Smith at Quarter Back. Despite being a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position, Smith has taken plenty of Sacks in recent games and the Blazers pass rush could cause problems for him in this one.
Even if Aveon Smith has the time he wants to make throws, the Blazers Secondary will feel they can get the better of what has been a pretty limited passing game. Some improvements of late will encourage Miami (Ohio), but I am not sure that is enough to believe they are going to have a consistent passing game and certainly not one that can make up for any struggles to run the ball.
In reality it has been possible to run the ball against the Blazers Defensive Line for much of the season and I do think Smith's ability to tuck the ball will help the Redhawks. The problem will be if they are in obvious passing positions on the field, which will shift the edge to the Blazers, and I do think this veteran Offense could have some issues moving the ball with a lot of success.
At least the Coaching Staff and the Redhawks game plan will be familiar for the team going forward, but that is far from the case with the UAB Blazers. After winning nine games in 2021, UAB fans would have had high hopes going into the 2022 season, but this is a team that has fallen short and is now looking to avoid the first losing season since 2013 having seen the football programme restarted in 2017.
Some of the issues may have come from the surprising retirement of Bill Clark just weeks before the season was to begin- he has revitalised the Blazers in his six previous years with the team. The Interim position was handed to Bryant Vincent and the UAB players made it clear they wanted the tag removed and Vincent being made permanent Head Coach so it has been a surprise to them as much as many others that UAB have appointed Trent Dilfer to take the team forward.
It is an off-field distraction that has to be a concern to Blazers backers, but I do think the players will really put in one more big effort for Bryant Vincent in this Bowl Game. A disappointing end to the season saw UAB lose four of five games before rallying for a victory in their final regular season game to become Bowl eligible and have the shot to extend their run without a losing season to another year.
Much of this game could come down to the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball- all season the Blazers Offensive Line have been able to churn out huge numbers on the ground, but the Redhawks Defensive Line has been pretty stout up front. Unfortunately for Miami (Ohio), the recent games has seen something of a worn down Defensive Line allowing big plays and I do think the Blazers can pick up where opponents have left off and pound the rock with a huge amount of success throughout this game.
DeWayne McBride should have another strong game and that only makes things easier for Dylan Hopkins at Quarter Back with all in that position happy to be operating in front of the chains. With the way the Blazers have been able to run the ball, the passing game is one that can be good enough as long as the game is managed and I do think Hopkins and company can do that against the limited Miami (Ohio) pass rush and the one or two holes that should open up in the Secondary if the Redhawks look to load the box to stop the run.
My only concern in backing the UAB Blazers is that they have not really been able to cover recent marks set by the oddsmakers, but I do expect a big game to send off the Interim Head Coach who is much respected by his players. The Redhawks are 7-15 against the spread in their last twenty-two non-Conference games and I think they will come up a little short in this Bowl Game, even with the significant amount of points being given to them.
UTSA Roadrunners vs Troy Trojans Pick: The first Bowl Game may involve two teams hoping to finish 2022 with a winning record and give them something to build upon in 2023, but the Cure Bowl involves two teams who have already had extremely successful years.
The Troy Trojans (11-2) won the Sun Belt Conference Championship and Head Coach Jon Sumrall deserves a lot of credit for that. In his first season leading this school, Sumrall was taking over a Trojans team that had finished with three losing seasons in succession and it may have been hard to get an experienced team on board with what he wants to do.
Instead of any pushback, the players have bought into what their Head Coach has been selling and that has seen Troy win the Conference Championship and win at least ten games for the first time since 2018. The Trojans have won ten in a row, but the same can be said for the UTSA Roadrunners (11-2) who are taking aim at winning twelve games in back to back seasons, which would be a remarkable achievement.
Like their opponent, the Roadrunners ended up as Conference Champions having won the Conference-USA title and I have to give both of these teams a lot of credit for not only piling up the wins. As the saying goes, good teams win, great teams cover and both the Roadrunners and Trojans have been covering the spreads placed in front of them frequently down the stretch.
UTSA are led by a veteran Quarter Back in Frank Harris and he has already announced that he will be returning to San Antonio for a seventh season. This is extremely uncommon in College Football and Harris has admitted he thought about moving on, but the Quarter Back is comfortable with the Roadrunners and threw more passing yards this season compared with 2021, whilst also having four more Touchdown passes next to his name.
This is going to be a significant test for the experienced Frank Harris and that is because he is facing a Trojans Defensive unit which has been strong all season. Running the ball against them is going to be a huge challenge for the Roadrunners, but Harris is capable of helping make some moves on the ground.
All the Roadrunners really want to do is give the Trojans something to think about behind their strong Offensive Line and hope that is enough to give Frank Harris enough time to attack the Troy Secondary. It will be far from easy, but Harris is experienced enough to know what he needs to do and there are one or two holes in the Trojan Secondary that can be exposed by the Quarter Back who should surpass 4000 passing yards for the season by the end of this game.
Stopping the Roadrunners completely looks too tough a task, but the Troy Defensive unit will feel they can keep their team competitive and that is all the Offense can ask for. It is the Defensive side of the ball that should be credited the most in helping Troy produce the season they have, but the Trojans will feel they can move the ball effectively enough on the other side to have a chance for success.
However, much like their own Defensive Line, the Trojans may struggle to establish the run against the UTSA Roadrunners. In recent games there has been an improvement from UTSA up front, while the Trojans own Offensive Line has been a touch inconsistent when it comes to pounding the rock and that may put some pressure on Gunnar Watson at Quarter Back.
The passing yards have been decent enough, but Watson has had 10 Interceptions with the 13 Touchdown passes thrown and giving the ball away in this Bowl Game could be the difference between the teams. I do think the added experience in the UTSA rank at the most important position in Football will be the key, although Gunnar Watson should be able to have some very positive moments in the game considering the lack of pass rush pressure he is likely to face.
Ultimately it could come down to a turnover or two in making the difference between the teams and I think that is where my lean is with the UTSA Roadrunners as the two Conference Champions clash early in Bowl season.
Both teams have strong recent trends behind them, but I can see Frank Harris putting the Roadrunners on his back as they look for a first Bowl win in what should be a close, competitive game.
Saturday 17th December
Washington State Cougars vs Fresno State Bulldogs Pick: There has been a lot of upheaval around the Washington State Cougars (7-5) over the last couple of years, but they have won at least seven games in back to back seasons. This is about as successful as things have been in Washington State since Mike Leach departed as Head Coach, and I think there will be plenty of emotions in the stands and on the field in this Bowl Game, the first game that Washington State will have played since the sudden passing of their former Head Coach.
Mike Leach had a big impact at this school and I do think there will a real motivation to try and win this game in honour of the former Head Coach in Pullman. The Cougars were blown out by the Washington Huskies in their last game, but had won three in a row before that and will be looking to snap their run of two Bowl defeats in a row.
They face the Mountain West Conference Champions the Fresno State Bulldogs (9-4) who have won eight in a row to bounce back from a disappointing start to the season. It had felt like the Bulldogs were going to fall well short of expectations, but instead they have an opportunity to win at least ten games for the fourth time in six seasons, including back to back years.
Fresno State fans will point to the early injury suffered by Jake Haener, but the Quarter Back has led the Bulldogs on this eight game winning run and he has 18 Touchdown passes to go with 3 Interceptions this season. Jake Haener considered leaving the Bulldogs last season, but that would have been in the transfer portal and instead this could be last game for Fresno State before he tries to make his way into the professional game.
The pressure may be on Jake Haener considering the struggles the Bulldogs have had in running the ball with any consistency, although they are facing a Washington State Defensive Line that has given up some big plays on the ground of late. The threat of Haener may mean there are more opportunities for the Bulldogs to run the ball, but the feeling is that the Quarter Back's arm is going to be the key for Fresno State on this side of the ball.
There has been a few breakdowns in the pass protection, but Jake Haener should have a big game against this Cougars Secondary. The Cougars may struggle to stop the run of late, but they have had issues against the pass all season and this Bulldogs team can show off the ability through the air in this Bowl Game.
Washington State fans will believe their team can at least keep up with the Bulldogs on the scoreboard with the way their own Offense has been operating this season, but they also have to respect the performance level of the Fresno State Defensive unit during their winning run.
This is not an ideal Defensive unit to face- the Cougars are still a team who would prefer throwing the ball than running it, but the Bulldogs Secondary is the strength of the team. The Cougars may have some success running the ball in this one, even if their Offensive Line have been struggling to open gaps up front, but the main challenge will be throwing the ball with any consistency.
Cameron Ward has played well at Quarter Back considering his lack of experience at this level, and he has operated behind an Offensive Line that has not offered the kind of protection he would have hoped of late. However, the Bulldogs have not generated a huge pass rush this season and I think that gives Ward a chance to make a few more plays.
Ultimately I am not sure that will be enough to stay with the Fresno State Bulldogs through the entire four Quarters to be played and I will look for the Mountain West Champions to secure another win.
The Cougars have played well off a straight up loss, but they are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten non-Conference games. Fresno State are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games against teams from the Pac-12, and the Bulldogs are going for a fourth Bowl win in a row.
While it should be close for a while, Fresno State can make one or two more plays to pull clear of the Washington State Cougars and they should be able to win this one by around a Touchdown mark.
Monday 19th December
Marshall Thundering Herd vs Connecticut Huskies Pick: An improvement was expected from Marshall Thundering Herd (8-4) in the second season under the guidance of Charles Huff at Head Coach and they have surpassed the seven wins earned in his first season at the helm. Now they are looking for a only a second nine win season since 2015 as the Thundering Herd try and win a first Bowl Game in four attempts.
While most expected the Thundering Herd to become Bowl eligible even if they were not able to win the Sun Belt Championship, the Connecticut Huskies (6-6) have to be one of the biggest surprises in College Football in 2022.
Jim Mora was a big hire as Head Coach, but even with the experience he brings to the table, it was a big ask to see a massive improvement from a team who went 1-11 in 2021. In fact Connecticut have won at least six games for the first time since 2015 and they are going to be playing with the motivation of trying to secure a winning season for the first time in twelve years.
All credit has to be given to the Coaching Staff and players for the kind of season the Huskies have had and it is remarkable to think this team has a 10-50 record since 2015 and before this one began. They had won three in a row prior to a defeat to the Army Black Knights, but the Huskies have a second shot to earn a seventh win in 2022, although they are a considerable underdog in this one.
I am not surprised when you think the Huskies are going to be lined up against a very tough Defensive unit and I simply don't know how they are going to move the ball with any kind of consistency in this one. The Huskies are pretty predictable in the approach they want to take in their Offensive game-plan and it is one that may not be as effective against this Thundering Herd team as they would like.
Connecticut want to run the ball and they have been pretty good at doing that this season- the big problem is that they don't offer much of a passing threat and have to deal with a Marshall Defensive Line that has been able to clamp down on the run all season. Even in recent games, the Thundering Herd have held teams to less than 3.5 yards per carry and they will believe they can put the Huskies behind the chains and force them to try and throw into the Secondary.
There have been one or two passing lanes that have opened up against Marshall, but this Huskies team are averaging just 107 passing yards per game this season. Add in the powerful Thundering Herd pass rush and I do think Marshall can make plenty of plays in this one on the Defensive side of the ball to limit the Connecticut output.
The line of scrimmage is so important in any American Football game and Marshall look to have an edge on both sides of the ball. While the Defensive Line have prided themselves on shutting down the run, the Marshall Offensive Line have opened up some big hopes up front and the team have been able to rip off some big gains on the ground.
More of the same has to be expected in this Bowl Game with the Huskies Defensive Line allowing 5.1 yards per carry down the stretch and 166 yards per game on the ground over the course of the season at 4.4 yards per carry. The Thundering Herd should be able to dominate at the line of scrimmage and Cam Fancher should be asked to manage the game at Quarter Back rather than trying to win it on his own.
Running the ball should give Cam Fancher some time in the pocket though and he should be able to find the right areas to exploit as the Marshall Thundering Herd finally end the season with a Bowl win for the first time since 2018.
Despite the poor run of losses in Bowl Games recently, Marshall are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 post-season appearances. Trends are positive for the Connecticut Huskies as they have massively overachieved in 2022, but I think they struggle Offensively in this game and that should mean Marshall are able to pull away for the cover.
It is a big spread, but the Thundering Herd can control things at the line of scrimmage and that should see them do enough to move past this number.
Tuesday 20th December
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs San Jose State Spartans Pick: Becoming Bowl eligible is something that the Eastern Michigan Eagles (8-4) have become accustomed to under the guidance of Head Coach Chris Creighton. However, they have not won any of the four Bowl Games played since 2016 and will be looking to break the run and win a first post-season game since 1987 when playing for the fourth time in five seasons.
The Eagles have to be credited for already winning the most games in a single season under this Head Coach, but rounding 2022 off with another victory would be a big achievement. Before the arrival of Chris Creighton, the Eagles had become a programme that has not been used to winning seasons and the 2022 team could be sat right up behind the 1987 Bowl winners that secured a ten win season for that team.
Nine wins would be huge having only reached that number in the ten win 1987 season, but the Eastern Michigan Eagles are underdogs in this Bowl Game.
The San Jose State Spartans (7-4) are only playing in their second Bowl Game since 2015 and were well beaten as a 9 point favourite in 2020 when facing the Ball State Cardinals. This is the second time in three seasons that the Spartans have won seven games in a single season and they have bounced back from a 2021 season where they finished with just five wins, but San Jose State have been inconsistent at times through this season.
I simply don't know how highly you can rate the Mountain West Conference and the Spartans 'only' finished 5-3 within Conference play, but they do enter the Bowl Game having snapped a two game losing run to beat Hawaii on the road in the final game of the regular season. Unsurprisingly, the Conference record was not good enough to play in the Championship Game, but this is a team who will be motivated to secure a strong end to the season with the extra Bowl practices always important.
The Spartans and Eagles may have similar approaches to their Offensive game plans in this Bowl Game- neither has been running the ball as well as they would like and both will feel their own Defensive Lines can have the edge at the line of scrimmage to force the other to have to rely on the throw to really get the chains moving.
Out of the two, Eastern Michigan's Defensive Line have allowed one or two more openings, but the Eagles may feel their own Offensive Line has been a little stronger of the two in this game. Ultimately it will come down to Chevan Cordeiro for the Spartans and Taylor Powell at Quarter Back for the San Jose State Spartans and Eastern Michigan Eagles respectively.
You have to give Cordeiro a slight edge on the season numbers, but it could be a tough day for him if the Spartans are not able to establish the run. In recent games the Eagles Secondary have stepped up their play, but they have also been able to generate a pretty strong pass rush which may be able to break through the Spartans Offensive Line and make Chevan Cordeiro uncomfortable whenever he is in third and long spots.
He has been careful with the ball through much of the season and that has to be respected, but this is a ball-hawking Eagles Secondary that thrive on mistakes and rushed Quarter Back passes and it may give Eastern Michigan an opportunity to win a second ever Bowl Game.
They will need Taylor Powell to continue from where he left off in the regular season- the Quarter Back finished with 14 Touchdown passes and 7 Interceptions, but Powell had 6 Touchdown passes without an Interception in the last two games of the regular season and that is very encouraging for Eastern Michigan.
Taylor Powell will be further encouraged when he sees the kind of numbers that the Spartans Secondary were allowing at the end of the season following a very strong start to 2022. He has been better protected by his Offensive Line compared with his opposite number and that should mean Powell has some time in the pocket to find the holes in the Secondary and put the Eagles in a position to win this game.
Turnovers could be crucial to the outcome of this close Bowl Game, but I do think the underdog is getting enough points to be backed.
This is a step up for Eastern Michigan compared with the Conference opponents they have been playing, but San Jose State are just 6-13 against the spread in their last nineteen non-Conference games. The Spartans have also failed to cover in their last six overall, while Eastern Michigan are 4-0 against the spread this season when set as the underdog of less than 7 points.
I do think the recent Bowl defeats will have hardened Eastern Michigan and I think they can be backed with the points to at least keep this one competitive, if not win outright.
Wednesday 21st December
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs South Alabama Jaguars Pick: Both these teams may have come short in terms of a Conference Championship, but 2022 has been a strong season for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-5) and the South Alabama Jaguars (10-2). The Hilltoppers are going for a nine win season for the third time in four years as they attempt to win this Bowl Game, but it has been an incredibly special year for South Alabama who were only beaten out in the race to reach the Sun Belt Championship Game on a tie-breaker with the Troy Trojans.
Any time you can win ten games in a single season has to be celebrated and especially with a school like South Alabama that have suffered losing years every season since 2013.
They have already surpassed expectations by winning ten games and reaching a first Bowl Game since 2016 and there is plenty of motivation within the team to become the first Bowl winners in South Alabama. That should fire them up in what should be a good game between two teams that will be playing with a real confidence and swagger.
With two teams that have done plenty more winning than losing in recent weeks, it is no surprise to anyone that confidence will be high in both camps.
You have to feel that the South Alabama Offensive game plan will be the one with a little more balance, but I do think both teams are going to struggle to run the ball. The Jaguars Defensive Line have been stout against the run all season and it may be a tough test, even for a good Western Kentucky Offensive Line, while the Jaguars have had issues establishing the run with any consistency, but also face a weaker Defensive Line.
Neither team will want to move away from the run too soon, but it is also clear that South Alabama and Western Kentucky will be looking at Quarter Backs who have had very strong seasons for them.
The Jaguars have Carter Bradley who has built on the limited experience he had with the Toledo Rockets and has managed to throw for almost 3000 yards and with 25 Touchdowns. His numbers will be tested by the Hilltoppers Secondary that ended the season in strong form, but Bradley should have enough time to make his plays and has shown he can find the holes to get the ball moving down the field.
South Alabama will be happy with their transfer starting behind Center, but Western Kentucky feel they have unearthed a gem in Austin Reed. Any player moving out of Division II to this level of College Football will be tested, but Reed has looked incredibly comfortable and has over 4200 yards with 36 Touchdowns for the Hilltoppers this season.
Awards have been earned by Austin Reed, but his focus will be on trying to help Western Kentucky to win this Bowl Game. The Hilltoppers Offensive Line have given him plenty of time when he has dropped back to throw and that has made life that much easier for Reed with a similar pattern expected to develop in this one.
I do like the underdog with the points in this one and a backdoor cover should be possible at the very least if Western Kentucky cannot win outright.
The Hilltoppers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five against a team with a winning record, while the South Alabama Jaguars could be feeling some pressure to win a first Bowl Game. I do have to respect the level that the Jaguars have produced this season, but the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers passing game should keep them competitive.
Thursday 22nd December
Baylor Bears vs Air Force Falcons Pick: The Baylor Bears (6-6) have been something of a mixed bag in the three seasons under the guidance of Head Coach Dave Aranda- they finished with a losing record in 2020, but had twelve wins in 2021 and won the Big 12 Championship, although they were not invited into the College Football PlayOff. This season they have a 6-6 record and this Bowl Game is perhaps more important than it would have been if the Bears had won one more game during the course of the regular season.
Motivation has to be a question mark for the Bears who gave up their Championship crown this season and now have to play this Bowl in the home of the team that took their title, and also a place in the PlayOff later this month.
The Bears ended the season with three straight losses, but that has led to changes with the main one being Dave Aranda now calling the plays on the Defensive side of the ball. It is going to be interesting to see if he holds that role into the 2023 season, but it will be the case in this Bowl Game as the Head Coach looks to take control of his own fate.
A losing record is not likely to end with a firing, but two losing seasons in three years certainly puts pressure on any Head Coach.
While the Bears are going to be questioned as to motivational levels, the Air Force Falcons (9-3) have put together another strong season and Service Academy schools are always gearing their players up to give their best every day. There will be a disappointment that they did not challenge to win the Mountain West Conference, but the Falcons have plenty to achieve with a win on Thursday meaning they would have won at least ten games in three of the last four years.
That would be a remarkable achievement for Air Force and this is a team that most people could guess as to how they will want to play. The Falcons use the triple-option and that means plenty of rushing attacks throughout the game, although just because you know what is coming, doesn't make it any easier to slow it down.
Over the course of the season, the Bears Defensive Line has actually played the run well, but they did have some signs of wear and tear down the stretch in the three game losing run. It is also a different kind of ask of the players to really get themselves up for stopping the run in a Bowl Game, one that is perhaps not the kind of profile they would have expected at the start of the season, and even more so when considering how hard it is to deal with the triple-option Offense even when truly focused on doing so.
The Falcons are not going to throw the ball around, but the play-action could be open to them if they wish to test the Baylor Secondary. Ultimately this side of the ball could be determined by 'how much' the Bears want to try and stop the run and I am not sure they are going to be massively motivated to do that all day long.
Even if the Bears are playing with full focus, they are going to have issues moving the ball themselves as they prepare to face what feels like an underrated Air Force Defensive unit. There is strength at the line of scrimmage and the Falcons will believe they can slow down any Baylor attempts to run the ball, even if the Bears have been competing at a higher level for much of the season and could be the toughest team Air Force have faced.
Being behind the chains would mean having to deal with the Falcons pass rush, but the Bears will believe they can have some success throwing the ball. Over the course of the season, Air Force have been playing the pass pretty well, but, again, you have to consider this Baylor team to be the best they have faced and so it may be tough to have the same Defensive consistency against a Big 12 opponent as they have had against Mountain West opponents.
These two teams both have some strong trends behind them of late, but my lean is with the underdog. I think Air Force can keep this one close and competitive behind their Defensive unit, but the triple-option Offense is not one that Baylor will be used to dealing with and can give the Falcons enough of an Offensive punch to keep this one within the number.
A Field Goal margin of victory for either team looks the most likely outcome of this game and I will back the underdog with the points.
Friday 23rd December
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns vs Houston Cougars Pick: Matching the incredibly successful 2021 season was never a realistic possibility for Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (6-6), but that does not mean this is not a disappointing season for them. The team had won at least ten games in each of the last three seasons and were expected to defend the Conference Championship won last season much more vigorously than they managed, while they could finish with a losing season for the first time since 2017.
That was before Billy Napier took over as Head Coach, but his departure to the Florida Gators has been difficult for the team.
The Ragin' Cajuns still had a number of experienced players returning for the 2022 season, but they are going to be without some key performers in this Bowl Game as players begin to focus on their moves to the professional ranks. That could leave them exposed when facing the Houston Cougars (7-5), although the Bowl is being played in Louisiana and that could give the underdog some further motivation.
Much like Louisiana, Houston were not expected to match the twelve wins produced in 2021, but the Cougars fell much shorter of the top of the American Athletic Conference than would have been hoped. Head Coach Dana Holgorsen has at least had back to back winning seasons, which does keep these Coaches in the job, and a second Bowl win in a row will give Houston some momentum to take into the next season.
As mentioned, the absence of some key Defensive players that are preparing for the NFL Draft really hurts the Ragin' Cajuns and I do think Clayton Tune and the Houston Offense will be able to do much of what they like in this Bowl Game. Running the ball has been a big help to Tune and I think the Cougars Offensive Line is going to help rip off some big gains on the ground, which can only be good news for a Quarter Back who has almost 4000 passing yards to go with the 37 Touchdowns.
Limited pressure is expected around Clayton Tune who should be able to do what he likes in the pocket as he attacks this Louisiana Secondary. The Cougars are expected to move the ball consistently through the game and I would not be surprised if they don't have to punt the ball more than twice all day.
Being without Defensive figures that have been important all season will also not affect the way Louisiana are able to move the ball when they have it and that is the one concern with backing Houston to win any game. For all of their stunning Offensive play, Houston have been porous Defensively and Chandler Fields will feel pretty good at Quarter Back.
However, the Ragin' Cajuns are also going to be without their top Wide Receiver and that could lead to some issues with sustaining drives and keeping up with Houston in a potential shoot out. It does not help Chandler Fields that the Houston Defensive Line have just stiffened up in recent games and will feel they can control Chris Smith if the Ragin' Cajuns try to establish the run, which puts that much more pressure on Fields and the passing game to get things going.
I do think Louisiana will have some success and playing at home should see them plenty motivated, but they look to have lost too many players for this one.
With a bit more pass rush pressure expected and a stronger Defensive Line, Houston look to have a key edge in this Bowl Game and that should see them win by around ten points.
Neither team has been the best in covering in Bowl Games, but Houston can do enough to win what may feel like a road game by a good margin and go into 2023 with a lot of confidence behind them.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs Missouri Tigers Pick: When you play in one of the Power 5 Conferences you are always thinking about a potential career in the NFL- in recent years it has become a trend that players will opt out of 'lesser' Bowl Games to make sure they are ready for the Draft and this year is not going to be any different.
It certainly leaves the Missouri Tigers (6-6) a little short handed in the Gasparilla Bowl with their top Sack artist and other key Defensive players declaring themselves unavailable as they look to make the next step in their careers. The Tigers will be motivated in trying to avoid back to back losing seasons, but other players have decided they want to test the transfer portal and those will also be expected to sit out in the Bowl Game, which makes this a big challenge for Missouri.
Missouri have lost their last three Bowl Games and might have been expecting to face Wake Forest Demon Deacons (7-5) without their starting Quarter Back. Sam Hartman has made it clear that his time with Wake Forest is over, although it is less clear whether that means transferring to another school or trying to push forward into the NFL.
However, in something of a surprise, Sam Hartman has declared that he will play his final game for Wake Forest in the Bowl despite the team failing to reach the ACC Championship Game in what has been a relatively disappointing season.
You may wonder why Sam Hartman would choose to play this game, but it may be something to do with the fact he could become the second ACC Quarter Back to throw for 13000 yards in his career. The only player to do that is Philip Rivers, who had a very strong NFL career, and Hartman will need 313 yards to reach that mark on Friday.
Wake Forest have averaged 314 passing yards per game this season so the target is achievable, although I think it would have been much tougher against a Missouri Defensive unit that had all of their players available. That is not the case in the Bowl Game though and Sam Hartman could have a big day with the Tigers not expected to be as fierce with their pass rush without Isaiah McGuire and DJ Coleman in the line up.
There may also be a bit more room to run the ball and I expect the Demon Deacons to make sure they are in third and manageable spots for much of the afternoon, which gives them and their star Quarter Back a big chance to win this game.
It won't be a blowout though and that is because Brady Cook and the Missouri Offensive unit look to match up pretty well with the Demon Deacons. The Tigers have been able to run the ball pretty efficiently down the stretch and the Offensive Line will believe they can win at the line of scrimmage and at least keep Cook in front of the marker.
Brady Cook may be without his top Receiving target in Dominic Lovett, but he should be under little pressure from the Wake Forest pass rush and will know there are some big holes in the Secondary which can be exploited. Having Lovett would have been massive, but I still think Brady Cook can have one of his better showings of the season having been a little disappointed with his return of 13 Touchdowns to go along with 7 Interceptions.
Ultimately the turnovers could be a problem having to focus on Receivers that have not been as reliable as Dominic Lovett and I think that will hurt Brady Cook and the Missouri Tigers.
They will have successes, but Sam Hartman and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons should have more against a Defensive unit missing inspirational players.
Missouri definitely finished the season with more momentum than Wake Forest, but the boost of having Sam Hartman for one more game may lead to a narrow win for the small favourite.
Tuesday 27th December
Georgia Southern Eagles vs Buffalo Bulls Pick: Some teams will be playing in Bowl Games over the coming days with a sense of disappointment that they are not in a higher profile setting, while others will just be pleased for the extra practices and chance to end the 2022 season on a high. This Camellia Bowl between the Buffalo Bulls (6-6) and Georgia Southern Eagles (6-6) pits two teams who have improved from last season and who will be looking to end the year with a winning record so there is plenty of motivation for both teams.
Adding to that is the fact that the Eagles are being led by Kyle Vantrease at Quarter Back- he was the Buffalo Bulls Quarter Back last season but transferred to Georgia Southern and it is a match up that both him and the Defensive unit for the Bulls are looking forward to.
Both teams snapped three game losing runs to win their final regular season game and become eligible to play in a Bowl, but the Kyle Vantrease additional factor is one that should have both very focused as they push for a seventh win in the 2022 season.
Ignoring the rest of the Offensive unit that the Georgia Southern Eagles have outside of Vantrease would be a mistake for the Buffalo Bulls. One of the main areas where the Eagles are going to have success is behind the tough Offensive Line which has opened up considerable holes for the rushing attack and now face a Bulls Defensive Line which ended the season struggling to stop the run.
In reality it has been a season-long challenge for the Bulls and I think the fact that Kyle Vantrease will be in third and manageable spots for much of the Bowl Game is a huge advantage for the Quarter Back and his team. He has shown he can get the passing game going in his season with the Eagles too and Kyle Vantrease should have time to make his plays down the field out of play-action, especially against the Bulls Secondary which has had problems.
Of course they do know the Quarter Back and may be able to stop passes with their knowledge of what Vantrease may want to do, but even then, I do think the Georgia Southern Eagles will be able to have a strong day Offensively.
Buffalo are not likely to be blown away having played pretty well Offensively too in the second season under Head Coach Maurice Linguist. They are also facing a Georgia Southern Defensive unit that has had their own problems stopping teams from moving the ball against them, so the feeling is that this is going to be something of a shoot out.
The entire key to the outcome of the game may be at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball- while the Eagles Defensive Line has struggled to make stops, the Buffalo Bulls Offensive Line has not been able to bully teams up front and they will need to find a way to keep their own Quarter Back in third and manageable in order to stay in front of the chains.
Cole Snyder may not have been as effective as Kyle Vantrease, but he has thrown for over 2750 passing yards this season and has 17 Touchdowns to add to that. An issue has been the 8 Interceptions in a game where turnovers may prove to be the difference, while Synder has simply not been as consistent in the passing game as his counterpart on the other sideline.
I think that will ultimately show up in this Bowl Game and Georgia Southern can improve their 4-1 record against the spread in their last five non-Conference games. They have also backed up wins a little better than Buffalo, while the Bulls are 2-7 in their last nine against the spread when playing on a neutral field and it could be a game where a turnover or two allows the Eagles to pull clear and cover this mark.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs East Carolina Pirates Pick: After back to back double digit winning seasons and losing a number of starters from both sides of the ball, Head Coach Jamey Chadwell will have known it was going to be a challenge to keep the standards going at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (9-3). Instead they have reached another Bowl Game and are going for another double digit winning season when taking on an opponent from North Carolina.
It isn't the Tar Heels or the NC State Wolfpack, but the East Carolina Pirates (7-5) who are trying to put up their most wins in a single season since 2014. They have not played in a Bowl Game since that season after last season's Bowl Game was cancelled during more Covid-19 restrictions, but East Carolina have matched the seven wins earned in 2021 and have kept the improvement going under Head Coach Mike Houston.
They will have been disappointed to not have challenged much more consistently in the American Athletic Conference, but the East Carolina Pirates are still strong favourites in this Bowl Game.
Some of that may be down to the fact that Coastal Carolina have lost their last two games and they will have Grayson McCall playing his last game at Quarter Back having entered the transfer portal. There is always a small chance that McCall will return, but the suggestion is that he has firmly decided to try and leave the team with one last big performance.
Grayson McCall is facing an East Carolina Secondary that ended the season giving up passing yards for fun and he is not expected to be under a lot of pass rush pressure. However, the feeling is that the pressure will be on the shoulders of McCall with the Coastal Carolina Offensive Line struggling to open up rushing yards and now facing a Pirates Defensive Line that has been tough up front.
Some of that is down to the fact that teams will throw and have success against East Carolina, but they have also limited the yards per carry down the stretch. Grayson McCall sounds like he is focused and I think he has a very big game, but becoming one-dimension could be a problem for Coastal Carolina as they bid for an upset.
One much loved Quarter Back will be leaving in Conway, but the same will be happening for this experienced East Carolina team with Holton Ahlers playing his last game at Quarter Back for the Pirates.
Unlike the Chanticleers, the East Carolina Offensive unit looks like it may have a bit more balance than their opponents and that could be key to the outcome of this Bowl Game. The Pirates Offensive Line have been very strong up front and opened up some huge holes for gains on the ground and they will feel they can at least push Holton Ahlers into a position where the pressure is not completely on their Quarter Back.
If they are able to make some gains and move in front of the chains, Ahlers should be able to expose the Coastal Carolina Secondary which has ended the season giving up some big yards through the air. And running the ball is also huge in slowing down the Chanticleers pass rush, which should give Holton Ahlers the time to dissect the Secondary.
The East Carolina Pirates have the edge when it comes to recent trends compared with the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, but the recent experience of Bowl Games is with the underdog.
Both of their recent Bowl Games have ended up in close contests and they may be getting enough points here to allow Grayson McCall to at least earn the backdoor cover for the Chanticleers.
This could be one of the high-scoring games of the post-season, and I do think both teams will have some big passing numbers at the end of it. Turnovers will be key to the eventual outcome of the game, but the feeling is that Coastal Carolina can throw well enough to at least make this huge number of points count in their favour.
MY PICKS: UAB Blazers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
UTSA Roadrunners + 1 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Fresno State Bulldogs - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Marshall Thundering Herd - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Eastern Michigan Eagles + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Air Force Falcons + 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons - 1 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Georgia Southern Eagles - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers + 8 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
No comments:
Post a Comment