The Bowl Season is well underway and there have been some quality post-season games for the fans and players to enjoy.
However, now the main events are fast approaching with the big New Year's Eve Bowl Games as well as the two College Football PlayOff Semi Final outings to line up the contenders for the National Championship, which will be decided next month.
Picks from the remaining Bowl Games will be added to this thread, Part Two, over the days ahead.
Wednesday 28th December
Oregon Ducks vs North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: There has been some big news for both of these schools ahead of this Bowl Game and that is both starting Quarter Backs are going to be returning in 2023. Things could change in the weeks ahead, but the Oregon Ducks (9-3) and North Carolina Tar Heels (9-4) will be feeling pretty good even if their 2022 seasons did not end in the manner they would have wanted.
At one stage both teams might have been thinking about the College Football PlayOffs, but Oregon lost two of their last three to fail to even make the Pac-12 Championship Game. The North Carolina Tar Heels were able to make the ACC Championship Game, but they were blown out by the Clemson Tigers and will want to erase that from the mind very quickly in order to compete in this Holiday Bowl.
The defeat to the Tigers actually means North Carolina dropped their last three games, but keeping hold of Drake Maye is really big for the school, despite the suggestions from Head Coach Mack Brown that other schools were enticing Maye to leave via the transfer portal. Drake Maye had a huge season at Quarter Back for the Tar Heels and returning will give North Carolina every chance to at least match the nine wins secured in 2022, although the first thought will be to reach ten wins.
North Carolina have not won at least ten games since 2015, but they will be confident behind Drake Maye- they will also be helped if the Offensive Line can break out some holes to put them of the chains and give their Quarter Back a bit more time to make his plays. The Tar Heels will also be aided by the relatively weak pass rush generated by the Oregon Ducks all season and Drake Maye and the Tar Heels can move the chains against a Ducks Defensive unit that have had issues making stops this year.
The Oregon Ducks will feel pretty good themselves though and have heard positive news from Bo Nix who transferred from the Auburn Tigers and has thrown for almost 3500 yards with 27 Touchdowns.
After their Head Coach left to take over in Miami, the Oregon Ducks are searching for back to back winning years of ten games. Dan Lanning is in his first Head Coaching role, but has shown he can take this team forward and having the starting Quarter Back returning in 2023 will raise expectations.
The overall numbers have shown that it will be possible for Bo Nix to hand the ball off and have the Ducks Offensive Line create running lanes, but down the stretch the North Carolina Defensive Line did stiffen up. That may have been at the detriment of defending the pass and I do think Nix will have plenty of time to attack this Secondary, even if the Tar Heels are stronger against the run than most would anticipate.
Bo Nix has looked to be a little more careful with the ball than Drake Maye and that could determine the outcome of the Holiday Bowl.
However, I do think this is a huge amount of points to be giving to the underdog with a Quarter Back like the one they have.
Both teams have disappointing recent trends to look at, and both Oregon and North Carolina have not always produced their best in Bowl Games. My feeling is that this could be a high-octane game though with plenty of successes for two of the Quarter Backs that are going to be leading the way in 2023 and I think Drake Maye can at least keep this one close.
Thursday 29th December
Syracuse Orange vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick: A rare winning season has already been secured by the Syracuse Orange (7-5), but that has meant some key performers have decided to skip the Bowl Game. They last played in a Bowl Game in 2018 and won that one, but this is going to be a tough test for a streaky Syracuse team that have been a little inconsistent all season.
A strong start was followed by a number of setbacks and the Syracuse Orange are a significant underdog against the Minnesota Golden Gophers (8-4) who continue to play hard under Head Coach PJ Fleck. Another win on Thursday will give Minnesota a chance to match the nine wins secured in 2021 and the Golden Gophers have won all three Bowl Games played under their current Head Coach.
There was also a stronger end to the season for the Golden Gophers compared with the Orange after Minnesota won four of their last five games to finish clear of the 0.500 mark for the season.
And unlike Syracuse, Minnesota could have their top Running Back available for this game and could also be boosted by Tanner Morgan's return at Quarter Back. I am sure he will be getting some reps to prepare for this game, but PJ Fleck has been happy with the performance of Athan Kaliakamanis in relief of Morgan and may feel he deserves to play this Bowl Game in order to be even stronger in 2023.
Ultimately the Quarter Back position is there to manage the game for the Golden Gophers who will be looking to pound the rock through Mohamed Ibrahim, a player who has bounced back from a serious injury to produce big numbers from the Running Back position. Controlling the line of scrimmage will be huge for Minnesota as they prepare to face an Orange Defensive Line that has found a way to clamp down on the run up front, but the feeling is that Ibrahim and the Golden Gophers will give their Quarter Back a chance.
Being able to play with fakes should give either Tanner Morgan or Athan Kaliakmanis an opportunity against this Syracuse Secondary that has allowed some big passing numbers.
With the Golden Gophers likely having some success moving the ball, the challenge will be on the Syracuse Offensive unit to at least keep their team competitive. Sean Tucker would have been the player they would have liked to have relied on the most, but the Running Back has opted out and I do think Syracuse will not find it easy to run the ball against this Minnesota Defensive Line.
Now they are going in without Tucker, Syracuse may have to rely on the arm of Quarter Back Garrett Shrader who has over 2300 passing yards and 17 Touchdowns this season. The Offensive Line has struggled to protect Shrader down the stretch, but I am not sure the Golden Gophers pass rush will have the consistency to put him under pressure.
Instead they will rely on their strong Defensive play at the line of scrimmage to force the Orange to convert from third and long spots, which could mean mistakes being made when in obvious passing spots.
Despite the lack of pressure being created by Minnesota up front, the Secondary have played hard down the stretch and I do think the Golden Gophers can win and cover.
Syracuse ended the season having failed to cover in their last five games and they are 2-6 against the spread in the last eight when facing a team with a winning record.
It has been a different end to the season for Minnesota who have dominated the majority of the opponents played down the stretch. This is a big spread for a team that relies on the run to cover, but I think they can win at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that ultimately will put the Golden Gophers in a position to secure a big win.
Friday 30th December
Pittsburgh Panthers vs UCLA Bruins Pick: Things have changed in College Football over the years and players have decided they cannot afford to risk their futures by playing in extra games at this level that could be a detriment to a professional career. I completely understand the thought process, especially when schools that aim for the PlayOffs fall short of those goals, and I think Head Coaches have to adjust rather than complain.
A team like the Pittsburgh Panthers (8-4) have been hit hard with players deciding they are going to opt-out of the Sun Bowl.
After finishing with eleven wins in 2021 that included winning the ACC Championship, the Panthers ended 2022 behind the North Carolina Tar Heels in the Coastal Division. In five of the eight years that Pat Narduzzi has been the Head Coach of Pittsburgh the team have finished with at least eight wins and they have already hit that mark this season.
Successes in Bowl Games have been much harder to come by for Pittsburgh in recent years and they are going to be without key players on both sides of the ball in this one. Starting Quarter Back Kedon Slovis has already transferred to the BYU Cougars, while the leading rusher and inspirational Defensive Tackle Calijah Kancey has also declared unavailability.
It is going to be difficult for Pittsburgh to find the consistency they need with these kind of absences and they are facing a UCLA Bruins (9-3) team who could easily have pushed their way into the College Football PlayOff conversation if not for two tight, late losses.
Head Coach Chip Kelly may have been under some pressure after three difficult seasons to open his tenure in Los Angeles, but the Bruins won eight games in 2021 and have already surpassed that win total. They are going to be motivated to try and win a tenth game for the first time since 2014, while the team have not had the same kind of opt-outs as their opponent because the Bruins are going to be playing a first Bowl Game since 2017.
Even Dorian Thompson-Robinson has suggested he is leaning towards playing despite the fact that he has not tethered his future to the Bruins. That underlines how important it is to many of the players here to not only compete, but look to win the game and end the season with plenty of momentum to take into the New Year.
On paper it is a tough challenge to move the ball against the Panthers Defensive unit, but the absences that will overshadow the game from their perspective may offer one or two more avenues for the Bruins to exploit. They will certainly feel they can establish the run against a Panthers Defensive Line that does not have Kancey clogging things up and that should open the passing lanes for Thompson-Robinson or whoever Chip Kelly chooses to run the Offensive unit.
I don't want to discount the chances of the Pittsburgh Panthers completely- Nick Patti is getting the start at Quarter Back and the senior does not have a lot of experience despite the four years spent with the team. However, there are some vulnerabilities in the UCLA Secondary that could give Patti an opportunity to have a strong showing for the Panthers and at least give them a chance to keep this one close.
So while I don't think it will be a blowout, I also cannot ignore how poorly Pittsburgh have played in Bowl Games in recent years. They are 1-5 against the spread in their last six post-season games and now Pittsburgh have to deal with a highly motivated UCLA team who should have more consistency in their overall play.
A couple of late mistakes may see UCLA just do enough to pull clear of this number and give Chip Kelly his first Bowl win since his time with the Oregon Ducks.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: A strong end to the regular season shows what the South Carolina Gamecocks (8-4) could achieve under Head Coach Shane Beamer who led the team to seven wins in his first season. That ended with a Bowl win and the Gamecocks will be hoping to upset the odds in the Gator Bowl against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4).
It has been an up and down season for the Fighting Irish, and there will be a genuine disappointment that the run of five years with at least ten wins is coming to a close regardless of how this Bowl Game goes down.
Finding the consistency in the play has been difficult and the Fighting Irish have been hit with a number of opt-outs on both sides of the ball, which is not a massive surprise. Instead of playing in the College Football PlayOff, which would have been the aim back in August, the key performers for Notre Dame do not want to risk their NFL Draft prospects by playing in this relatively 'low-key' Bowl Game.
The same cannot be said for South Carolina and Quarter Back Spencer Rattler has announced that he 'owes' the Coaching staff this Bowl Game. He did not really reach the levels expected in his time with Oklahoma and the Gamecocks, but a strong end to the season has Rattler considering whether he wants to enter the NFL Draft.
That is a decision for another day, but the appearance of Spencer Rattler certainly gives the Gamecocks every chance of earning the upset in the Gator Bowl. If this was a regular season game, you would suggest the Notre Dame Defensive unit would give South Carolina a lot of issues, but the opt-outs and the potential lack of motivation from some players may just offer Rattler the chance to finish the season with a flourish.
South Carolina will be missing some key players through their team, which lessens some of the enthusiasm for backing them, but Notre Dame are going to be without their main starting Quarter Back from the regular season. Drew Pyne has entered the transfer portal and rumoured to be heading to Arizona State and that means Tyler Buchner will be restored to the line up having lost the starting job in the regular season.
The Fighting Irish Offensive Line will feel they can still do enough to put Tyler Buchner in front of the chains by opening up running lanes, but I do have to question the motivation of the favourites considering the underachieving nature of the season.
It should not be an issue for South Carolina who may feel they are being underrated again having upset the Tennessee Volunteers and Clemson Tigers in their final two games, ruining the chances of either making the College Football PlayOff at the same time.
Motivation is always the hardest angle to factor into any Bowl Game pick, but in this case I think the Gamecocks will play harder for their Head Coach and having a starting Quarter Back leading the way could be the difference.
Saturday 31st December
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Kansas State Wildcats Pick: Back in August, it would have been seen as a huge disappointment for the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2) to miss out on the College Football PlayOff. You have to place their participation in the Sugar Bowl into that context and it would be foolish to ignore the chances of players lacking motivation, but Nick Saban and those involved are speaking about this Bowl with plenty of respect.
For starters it is a positive way to end any season even if the Crimson Tide will look back at 2022 with some regret, while the decision made by Bryce Young to Quarter Back the team has to give all those left plenty of motivation to perform at their best.
It also helps that this is a pretty big Bowl Game against the Big 12 Champions Kansas State Wildcats (10-3) who upset the TCU Horned Frogs in the Championship Game, although ultimately it did not cost TCU a place in the College Football PlayOff.
Kansas State are clearly motivated by the chance to earn the upset and they have not had the same number of opt-outs as Alabama, but the Crimson Tide have to be considered a team with plenty of depth to make up for the absentees.
Both teams will be looking to run the ball and try and keep their Quarter Back in front of the chains and this is arguably more important for Kansas State than Alabama. Adrian Martinez is back for the Wildcats at Quarter Back as he concludes his College career, and he can offer a dual-threat out of the position, but he will not want to have to sit in the pocket and try and make plays from third and long against this Alabama Secondary.
Being in third and long would also encourage Alabama to unleash the pass rush at Adrian Martinez and converting those spots will not be easy for Kansas State. They may feel they can have some success running the ball considering the issues the Alabama Defensive Line had to close out the season, but this is a tough test for the Big 12 Champions.
Losing key Offensive Linemen may just give Alabama some pause for thought when it comes to running the ball, but I do think they can plug in enough players to keep themselves pounding the rock with success. Stopping the run has been challenging for Kansas State all season and they will rarely have faced the kind of talent Alabama bring to the field and so it should be better news for Bryce Young compared with Adrian Martinez.
The Quarter Back has played well and I think Young has a strong day throwing the ball, even with some of the inexperience he will be dealing with on the outside. Short, quick passes should keep the chains moving and I do think the Crimson Tide can win this game and ensure another season with at least eleven wins produced.
You never want to dismiss the chances of Kansas State who thrive on the underdog role, but Alabama crushed Michigan in their last Bowl Game that did not act as a College Football PlayOff Semi Final. With Bryce Young leading the way, I think there is every chance that Alabama can win this one going away and I will back them to cover the handicap.
TCU Horned Frogs vs Michigan Wolverines Pick: They may not have won the Big 12 Championship, but the TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) deserve their spot in the College Football PlayOff. That doesn't take anything away from the fact that they are probably the weakest of the four teams left, but the Horned Frogs can play with some freedom as most expect them to be beaten on Saturday.
They face the Big Ten Champions the Michigan Wolverines (13-0) who have won the Conference for a second season in a row. They were blown out in the College Football PlayOff Semi Final last year, but that experience will not have been lost on the Wolverines and they should be much better this time around.
They have not always been an easy team to read, but the Wolverines have dominated some of the tougher teams on the schedule. In particular, the crushing win over the Ohio State Buckeyes shows the kind of power that the Wolverines have and they are certainly the toughest opponent the TCU Horned Frogs will have seen this season.
Some have suggested the team with the most similarity that the Horned Frogs would have seen is the Kansas State Wildcats and those were close games. However, most will follow up the first suggestion by offering the fact that Michigan are much stronger and faster than the Kansas State athletes and ultimately they could have too much for the Big 12 team.
You know what you are going to get from the Wolverines- they are going to want to run the ball behind a very good Offensive Line and even without Blake Corum the Wolverines are confident they will be able to do that. They didn't need Blake Corum to thump their most recent opponents and Donovan Edwards should be able to rip off some big gains in this game.
JJ McCarthy is not asked to do too much from the Quarter Back position and he should be kept in third and manageable spots through much of this game. It is an encouraging position for a Quarter Back who has been very careful with where he throws the ball and I do think the Michigan Wolverines will find plenty of balance Offensively, which makes them very dangerous.
The Horned Frogs will feel they can have success when they have the ball and Max Duggan has raised his stock ahead of his move into the NFL Draft. The story has been one of surprise for much of the season, although it could be that much more difficult for Duggan if the TCU Offensive Line is not able to win at the line of scrimmage and keep the team in front of the chains.
Max Duggan has shown he can take the Horned Frogs on his back, and there have been some holes in the Michigan Secondary which have been exploited down the stretch. The Quarter Back has been well protected and given time he should have some success, although it is hard to ignore the fact that this Wolverines team is of a level that TCU would not have faced too often.
Michigan's blow out loss in the College Football PlayOff last season should give them the experience to pull clear in this one and these Semi Final games have rarely been close in recent seasons. Jim Harbaugh can underline his reputation as a strong Head Coach by taking Michigan to the National Championship Game for the first time and I like the Wolverines to pull clear in the second half by turning the ball over a couple of times to cover.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: When they were beaten by the Michigan Wolverines in their final regular season game, especially the manner in which they were beaten, some would have felt the Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) had missed their chance of returning to the College Football PlayOff. However, other results ended up in favour of the Buckeyes and they have been invited into the final four with a genuine chance of redemption.
Beating the defending Champions Georgia Bulldogs (13-0) would be a massive form of redemption and a genuine upset. The Bulldogs are an unbeaten SEC Champion and they have now won fifteen games in a row, while Head Coach Kirby Smart has shown himself to be one of the top Coaches in College Football.
After blowing out the LSU Tigers in the SEC Championship Game, the Georgia Bulldogs are the favourites to win back to back National Championships, but they cannot overlook the Buckeyes.
As poor as they were against the Michigan Wolverines, this is a Buckeyes Offensive unit that can pile up some big yards and they may have learnt plenty from the defeat to put to good use in this big game.
Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, they are going to need to be a lot better if they are going to find a way to move the ball against the Georgia Bulldogs who have a Defensive unit that has grown in each passing week. A big part of this game on this side of the ball is going to be the line of scrimmage as the Bulldogs Defensive Line looks to clamp down on the run as they have for much of the season and force the Ohio State Buckeyes to take to the air.
The Buckeyes have to be confident in their Offensive Line, but they were held to a number someway below the season average in the loss to the Michigan Wolverines. Moving the ball against this Georgia team will be tough and that does put more pressure on CJ Stroud at Quarter Back.
Passing lanes had opened up against Georgia in their last three games, but a lot of that was down to the fact they had big leads in games and teams were forced to throw. Playing soft coverage makes the numbers look worse than they actually are and Stroud may have negotiate a strong pass rush and a Secondary that can make plays to turn the ball over through the air.
Instead of looking to win a shoot out, the Buckeyes may need to lean on their own Defensive unit and hope they are able to contain the Georgia Bulldogs.
Ultimately this could come down to the line of scrimmage again where the Georgia Offensive Line have been dominant all season- down the stretch the Buckeyes Defensive Line did show signs of wear and tear and I think that will give the Bulldogs a big edge in the overall game.
Stetson Bennett is not going to be asked to win the game from the Quarter Back position and being in third and manageable is huge for him. He has been well protected by the Offensive Line and the Georgia ability to run the ball will also cool down the powerful Ohio State pass rush, while Stetson Bennett has done enough to keep the chains moving when he has been asked to do so.
The Georgia Bulldogs are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten Bowl Games and they covered in both PlayOff games last season.
I've already mentioned the fact that these recent Semi Final PlayOff games have ended in blowouts more often than not and I think the Georgia Bulldogs will show a dominance at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball that allows them to win and cover.
MY PICKS: North Carolina Tar Heels + 13.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks + 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 6.5 Points @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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