Ups and downs through an eighteen week regular season have to be accepted, but this is the time to build some momentum towards the PlayOff Picks coming up in January as the NFL begins the long slog towards the Super Bowl.
In a shoot out, I think the Dolphins prevail with their superior balance on both sides of the ball and I think they can be backed to cover.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The expanded PlayOffs that the NFL have begun using last season may have kept alive the hopes of the Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) to force their way into the top seven of the Conference. They edged into the post-season in Week 18 last season, but a miserable start to this season under new Head Coach Josh McDaniels had given most the feeling that the Raiders were going to miss out in 2022.
Back to back Overtime wins and then another victory over a Divisional rival have put some momentum behind Las Vegas, even if it comes too late to really challenge the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West. They are now 2 games behind the New York Jets for the final PlayOff spot on offer to the AFC and the Raiders will feel they could get back into the post-season if they can finish up with nine wins.
When the schedule was released back in April, the Las Vegas fans will have been thinking about this short journey to the City of Angels and wondering how tough it would be. They would be facing the Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams (3-9), but this has been a miserable defence to the crown with injuries piling up and forcing the Rams to begin thinking about next season.
Six losses in a row have ended the Rams hopes of returning to the post-season, while they are going into this Week 14 Thursday Night Football encounter without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kuup and Aaron Donald, three prominent members of the team that won the Super Bowl in this Stadium in February.
Baker Mayfield was released by the Carolina Panthers and has been picked up by the Los Angeles Rams, although it feels like a long shot to see him suit up for this one. John Wolford has been banged up at Quarter Back though and has not practiced yet so there is a feeling that the Rams could throw Mayfield in quicker than they would like, especially as they would have some time to get him up to speed for any Week 15 outing they want from him.
Bryce Perkins is the other Quarter Back on the roster and no matter which way you cut it, this does not feel like an ideal short week for the Rams. It is never easy regardless, but the injury problems and playing off an emotional effort in coming up short against Divisional rivals Seattle Seahawks makes this much tougher than usual.
Regardless of who is going be taking place under Center, the Rams have to try and impose the run game on the Raiders Defensive Line if they are going to have a real chance of winning this game. In recent weeks the Offensive Line has gotten something going when it comes to run blocking, but it feels like they are facing Las Vegas at the wrong time with the Raiders really stepping up their intensity up front.
I do think the Rams will have some successes while the game is close, but it is unlikely to be consistent and the Running Backs may actually be bigger threats in the passing game. That has something to do with the very strong pass rush that the Raiders have been generating in recent games, one that should get the better of the Los Angeles Offensive Line and see Wolford/Perkins/Mayfield under intense pressure when it comes to throwing down the field.
Losing Cooper Kuup is obviously a massive blow to the passing attack and it could be a chance for the Raiders to improve their Interception rate against inaccurate passers. There are holes in the Las Vegas Secondary, but it is hard to imagine this Los Angeles Rams Offense being able to exploit those on a consistent basis and it could be a tough day for the home supporters.
There will also be plenty of black and silver in the stands and that should only aid Derek Carr and the Raiders Offensive unit, which could be bolstered by a returning Darren Waller in Week 14. The Tight End has been a big miss, although Carr and company have kept the good times rolling thanks to Josh Jacobs at Running Back and Davante Adams at Wide Receiver.
Los Angeles' Defensive Line have been stubborn against the run in recent games, but this Raiders Offensive Line may be blocking as well as any unit in the NFL right now. Josh Jacobs is running angry and it is almost impossible to believe that the Rams, who invested as much as they did on Sunday, can have the intensity to clamp down on the run completely.
Any move up front is big for Derek Carr and his time to make throws down the field from Quarter Back- he is also protected by a Line that is just as happy pancaking pass rushers as run blocking and that should mean Carr is able to locate like the likes of Adams, Waller and Mack Hollins down the field.
Turnovers are likely to be the biggest worry for Derek Carr who will be throwing against a Secondary that has allowed some big numbers in recent losses and I do like the Raiders to win and cover on the road.
The Rams should be motivated about being a home underdog, but that was the situation in Week 13 and I do think they have invested so much into trying to spoil the season for a Divisional rival that a non-Conference game may not be on the same radar. And while the Raiders are coming in off a Divisional win of their own, they have so much more to play for if they can keep winning and that focus and mindset can be huge factors in the NFL.
I also cannot ignore the size of the spread, but the Las Vegas Raiders should have enough to win this one by a Touchdown as late turnovers see them pull clear.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The return of Deshaun Watson may not have gone completely to plan for the Cleveland Browns (5-7), but the win over his former team, the Houston Texans, has kept alive faint PlayOff hopes. Those hopes could be much brighter at the end of Week 14 if the Browns can continue their dominance of Divisional rivals the Cincinnati Bengals (8-4), although the Super Bowl losers from the end of the 2021 season look like a team on a mission to go one better this time around.
Four wins in a row have gotten the Bengals involved in the AFC North Divisional race, but it is even more impressive when you think they have beaten AFC West leaders Kansas City and AFC South leaders Tennessee during that time. With Lamar Jackson banged up, the Bengals have to be considered favourites to win the AFC North at this time, while they are only a game out of the Number 1 Seed in the Conference, which could be crucial when determining the Super Bowl representative next month.
Joe Burrow has been as good as expected since moving from College Football into the professional game, but there is still a couple of things missing from the CV. Of course the biggest is the lack of a Super Bowl ring, but not many will bet against him adding that to the National Championship won in College, while the more surprising check list that has yet to be marked off is a win over the Cleveland Browns.
The Bengals are significant favourites to do that in Week 14, but the schedule spot is not ideal off those big wins over the Titans and Chiefs. Cincinnati had to really dig deep to win those games, while they are now facing a Cleveland team with a Quarter Back who will feel he has shaken off some of the match rustiness and can have a much bigger performance all around.
Deshaun Watson is not going to reach the level of his last season in Houston, but the Browns may not need him to do that in this match up, which has been in their favour over the last couple of years. For starters the biggest edge the Browns have seemingly had over the Bengals is the strong ability to run the ball and it would almost be a surprise if that is not the case in Week 14 of the 2022 season.
When they met a few weeks ago, Cleveland piled up 172 yards on the ground and it does feel like they can at least get Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt established in this one too. In recent games the Bengals Defensive Line have been a little tougher, but this Cleveland Offensive Line is a confident one that can bully teams up front and I think they will feel the strength of the Quarter Back behind Center will just give opponents a bit more pause for thought.
In saying that, the Bengals cannot have been that impressed with Watson last week and they may actually dare the former Texan to show he still has the ability to make huge plays in the NFL. A struggle against the Houston Secondary is a slight concern, but I do think Deshaun Watson will be a little bit more aware of the strengths of the Receivers in Week 14 and could also have David Njoku back at Tight End to bolster the options.
Cleveland should be able to move the ball with some consistency, but it is also hard to expect Joe Burrow to continue to struggle against this Divisional rival. The Bengals did not run the ball at all well in the loss to the Browns a few weeks ago, but they should have Joe Mixon back this week as they try and do a little better.
Even with the quality Running Back behind Burrow, the Bengals Offensive Line have not been at their best opening holes up front and it may be tough to do that against this Browns Defensive Line, despite the inconsistent performances from Cleveland. In recent games they have largely shut down Tampa Bay and Houston on the ground, but the Buffalo Bills were able to really ramp up the pressure with the run, although Joe Burrow is perhaps not the same threat as Josh Allen with the ball tucked under his arm.
One difference from the first game though is that the Bengals have been giving Joe Burrow more time in the pocket in recent starts and that may be the case here. For some reason the Cleveland pass rush has been failing to get to the Quarter Back, perhaps due to the struggles to stop the run, while the absence of Ja'Marr Chase in the first meeting was clearly a blow for the Bengals.
Cleveland do have a Secondary that has been playing well, but this Bengals team have a number of Receivers who can step up and I do think stopping them completely is tough for any team. However, the Browns have had plenty of success against Joe Burrow, including holding him under 200 passing yards on Halloween, and this could be enough for the Browns to keep this one close.
The Bengals will be focused as they finally look to crack the Cleveland conundrum, but there is no doubting how much they have invested to beat the Titans and Chiefs and this feels like a 'let down' spot for the team. I do think it is hard to ignore the way these teams have performed at the betting window in recent times with the Browns struggling for covers and Cincinnati proving they are a potentially great team, but the underdog is 6-0 against the spread in the last six between these rivals.
Add in the fact that Cleveland are 4-2 against the spread when given less than 7 points as the underdog this season and I will take the Browns with a healthy start.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Three losses in five games has slowed the surprising progress that was being made by the New York Jets (7-5), but the decision to move from Zach Wilson to Mike White at Quarter Back still looks the right one despite the loss last week. It was poor play from Wilson which saw the Jets lose two of three games, but White has given them. chance to back up the Defensive effort which has propelled the Jets all season.
If the PlayOffs were to begin this week, the New York Jets would surprisingly have earned the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. However, there are still five weeks of the regular season to get through and the New York Jets have to find a way to win at least three of their remaining games to have a realistic shot of earning a post-season berth for the first time since 2010.
It has already been seven years since the New York Jets won more than seven games in a single season and so a lot of credit has to be given to Head Coach Robert Saleh who finished 4-13 in his first season with the team in 2021. The turnaround has been down to the Defensive side of the ball, which is where Saleh has made his reputation in the NFL, and I do think there will be a confidence that they can reach the post-season when you think of how the schedule breaks down in their final five games.
This looks the toughest test left with a trip to the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills (9-3) who are coming in off a mini-bye having beaten the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 13. Sunday proved to be an important day for the Bills as they have pulled into the lead for the Number 1 Seed in the AFC too, but Sean McDermott and his staff will know they have yet to really take control of the Division, let alone the Conference.
Two of the three Buffalo defeats in 2022 have been against Divisional rivals and they still have three more games to play against those rivals. Back to back home games against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins should keep the Bills plenty focused, especially as they have lost the first meeting with both of those teams, and I think that will see Buffalo produce a big performance in Week 14.
Illness and injury have been concerns for Buffalo in the last couple of weeks, while a storm meant displacing them from home for a game too. However, through it all, the Bills have kept rolling and they will feel they can be much more productive Offensively than they were in the 20-17 loss to the Jets in early November.
Despite being a big favourite on the road, Josh Allen struggled at Quarter Back in that defeat and threw 2 Interceptions that proved to be costly. This will be another test for Allen, but he should be able to have some success running the ball, while the Bills have made a positive decision to give James Cook more of an opportunity at Running Back and he has certainly paired up well with Devin Singletary to offer the Bills a genuine punch on the ground.
I expect they can move the ball effectively against this Jets Defensive Line, while that also should be crucial in slowing down the New York pass rush. Josh Allen will be challenged by this Jets Secondary, but he has a number of Receivers who can step up outside of Stefon Diggs and I also expect the Bills to utilise James Cook when he leaks out of the backfield.
Even with the motivation of wanting to prove something, I do think the Buffalo Offensive unit could become a little bogged down at times with the way the Jets match up against them. New York have shown they can at least limit the scoring opportunities and that will give them a chance to cover with the huge amount of points being given to them, and perhaps even win outright.
Winning outright on the road is not going to be easy, but Mike White has shown he can offer the Jets plenty from the Quarter Back position. Zach Wilson did not play badly in the win over the Bills in November, but he only had 154 passing yards on the day and White has produced back to back days over 300 passing yards since being moved into the starting spot.
Running the ball was a key in the upset of the Bills last month as the Jets won the time of possession and just made things that much more comfortable for the Quarter Back. The game plan is likely to be very similar in Week 14, although the Bills Defensive Line have held teams to just 3.5 yards per carry over their last three games and may be daring the Jets to beat them through the air.
If they still had Von Miller, the Bills may have felt more comfortable trying this method, but the loss of their big time pass rusher is a huge blow to this team. In recent games the pass rush has not been nearly as effective as the Bills would have liked and Mike White has shown he can make the plays down the field to his Receivers.
Garrett Wilson had 92 yards Receiving in the first meeting with Buffalo, but had not been on the same page as Zach Wilson for many of the games outside of that one. However, he has been much more involved since White took over at Quarter Back and Wilson has had 95 yards and 162 yards in the last two games and I think he could do some damage in the Buffalo Secondary in this one as well.
I think that will see the New York Jets having success moving the ball too and they should be able to keep this one close, even against an angry, motivated and rested Buffalo Bills team.
Buffalo have been very good at home and they have a strong record against the AFC East when it comes to the spread over the last couple of seasons, although the Bills are 1-2 against the spread in those games this season. They still have to be respected as a team that can blow out any opponent very quickly, but this is a lot of points to be giving to a well Coached Jets team that have covered in their last four games following a straight up loss.
There is every chance the Bills could begin to turn their attention to the Miami Dolphins and the Saturday Week 15 outing against their closest rivals in the Division, and that allows an opportunity for a backdoor cover at the worst with this spread line.
Sean McDermott is an excellent Head Coach and one who has been very good at covering double digit spreads, but his Bills team are just 3-3 against the spread when favoured by 7 or more points this season. As long as the Jets Defensive unit can do what they are capable of, I think the Jets may only need between 17-20 points to cover even in a losing effort and I will back New York with the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Pick: When you trade away a player in his prime who then comes back to wreak havoc on your team the very next time you face him, it cannot be a big surprise that there are going to be serious discussions about why a General Manager would do that. Those discussions would have taken place with AFC South leaders the Tennessee Titans (7-5) having been crushed by AJ Brown in Week 13 and it is clear that Jon Robinson was considered responsible.
Head Coach Mike Vrabel had made it clear only two weeks before the Brown trade was executed that he would not sanction any trade while he was leading the Tennessee Titans. The only real surprise is that it has taken the Titans this many months to make a change in the General Manager office and even more surprising is that they would not have waited two months.
Upheaval aside, the Tennessee Titans are comfortably clear in the weak AFC South, while Vrabel has made it clear that the focus is to finish strong and try and improve the Seeding. They do have to face three games against Divisional rivals, but the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) have not looked capable of rocking the boat for the Titans and the two games against this opponent have to be won if Tennessee are going to turn things around.
Tennessee have lost three of their last five games, but they are expected to bounce back in this one. Treylon Burks is expected to miss out, but the main focus for Mike Vrabel and the Titans is to get back to doing what they do best and that is running the ball with Derrick Henry.
Recent outings have seen teams clamping down on King Henry, but the Running Back himself has admitted he needs to be better than he has been. He needs to be helped by the Tennessee Offensive Line who have only helped the team produced 3.2 yards per carry in their last three games, but I do think the Jaguars Defensive Line is one that they can get on top of.
It will help the Titans overall if they can find a way to make teams respect the pass- Ryan Tannehill has not been playing badly and the Jaguars have some big holes in the Secondary, but it comes back to the trade to send AJ Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles. With Burks expected to miss out, the Titans will have to rely on Receivers to make plays for them that perhaps don't have the consistency required when it comes to the post-season and I do think there are limitations to this time.
Those are not expected to be exposed by the Jaguars though and I think this is a very good chance for the Titans to bounce back Offensively and at least keep the chains moving.
Moving the chains could be a much tougher ask of the Jaguars who look to be trending towards having to play this game without Quarter Back Trevor Lawrence. They do have a capable backup in CJ Beathard, although I do think Beathard wishes he had stayed in San Francisco where he would have been the starter going into the PlayOffs.
The problem that Beathard will face in this game is that the Jaguars are unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball against the Titans Defensive Line and that means having to throw from third and long behind a vulnerable Offensive Line. Short passes to Travis Etienne may be a way to at least try and stay in front of the chains, while the Titans pass rush has not been as effective of late as they have been for much of the season, but it will still be a test for CJ Beathard having not started a game in 2022.
Tennessee have a Secondary which can be susceptible to the big play though and so Beathard may be able to help the Jaguars have some success. Ultimately, I still think the unbalanced Offensive game plan could come back to haunt the road team who were bludgeoned at the Detroit Lions last week.
As one of the better Head Coaches in the NFL, Mike Vrabel's Tennessee team usually bounce back from a defeat. They have been even stronger when playing on back to back straight up losses with his Titans team going 7-1-1 against the spread in that spot and I do think Tennessee will try and cool the headlines about the firing of Jon Robinson by winning this one well.
The Titans have strong recent trends, while the Jaguars are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four road games and who are 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games in Tennessee. I would have preferred this spread to be a point lower, but I still think the Titans win by around a Touchdown mark and I will back them to cover here.
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The immediate reaction to a spread of the size involved in this Week 14 game is that the favourite doesn't 'need' to beat the underdog as convincingly as the oddsmakers think they should. You also add in the backdoor cover ability with such a number and it makes it hard to back any NFL team to win by more than three scores.
However, the oddsmakers are normally on the money and you can understand why they have asked the Dallas Cowboys (9-3) to lay this many points against the Houston Texans (1-10-1).
There is enough leeway for the Texans to win at least one more game before the end of the season and still end up with the Number 1 Pick in the Draft and that is going to be important to the rebuild in Houston. They are in desperate need of a functional Quarter Back having tried a number of options in this position ever since Deshaun Watson insisted he wanted to leave.
This week Davis Mills is back behind Center after the Texans decision to give Kyle Allen the starts backfired badly. I don't really blame Allen for that and Mills is not much of an upgrade anyway, but big losses at the Miami Dolphins and at home in their 'revenge' game against the aforementioned Watson and his new team the Cleveland Browns has meant another change being made at the most vital position on the team.
Previously you would have imagined that the Texans would have simply handed the ball off to Dameon Pierce and other Running Backs in a bid to control the clock against this very strong Cowboys Defensive unit. For much of the season it has been possible to run the ball against Dallas and try and stay in games against them, but recent outings have really seen the Cowboys make a big effort to stop the run and they have been successful doing that.
In the wins over the Minnesota Vikings, New York Giants and Indianapolis Colts, the Dallas Defensive Line have limited the likes of Dalvin Cook, Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor so facing Pierce and company will not be a challenge they shy away from. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 90 yards per game on the ground in those wins and doing that against the Texans will make it very difficult for the road team to have any Offensive success.
Davis Mills would be forced to throw against a very good Secondary without his top Receiver, while the Offensive Line is not likely to stand up against the pressure the Cowboys have been bringing with their pass rush. That does not bode well for scoring points and the Texans may actually need their own Defense to step up and keep them in this game, while perhaps earning a turnover or two that can offer short fields to the Offensive unit.
I have to respect the fact that the Houston Defensive Line have been playing harder of late, but clamping down on the Ezekiel Elliot-Tony Pollard one-two punch out of the backfield feels like a tall order. The Dallas Offensive Line is going to be bolstered by a returning Tyron Smith this week and I think they are going to be able to run the ball very effectively against the Texans.
Running the ball does shorten the game and make it that much more difficult to cover such a number as this one, but it should give Dak Prescott an opportunity to make some big throws down the field too. The reality is also that it is very difficult to imagine the Texans creating too many stops against this Cowboys team and their own Offensive unit is likely going to have a turnover or two that sees them on the wrong side of a very wide margin of defeat.
You have to give the Houston Texans some credit in the sense that only one defeat has come by more than 17 points this season, but this feels a horrible match up for them. If the Cowboys had a Divisional game on deck, I could perhaps have suggested there may be a distraction, but they are playing hard to chase down the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East and I think Dallas will be far too strong on the day.
I can't say enough about how big this spread is, but the Houston Texans are 0-1 against the spread when given more than 13.5 points as the road underdog this season and they may have to accept another blow out defeat against an in-State rival.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: There are a couple of teams in the NFL who look far weaker than their overall record may suggest and one of those has to be the New York Giants (7-4-1). They played out a tie with the Washington Commanders in Week 13, but the Giants have regularly found themselves on the wrong side of the yardage battle and they are still in for a huge fight to make the PlayOffs despite the record.
One of the reasons for that is that New York have a very difficult schedule left to negotiate- they have to face the Commanders again, have a road game at the Minnesota Vikings and, perhaps most importantly, have to face the Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) twice.
With a Number 1 Seed coming up over the horizon, the Eagles are not likely to take their foot off the gas at this stage of the season and they will be heading into this Week 14 Divisional game with a lot more confidence than the Giants. While the home team are banged up, the Eagles look pretty settled and the additions they have made in recent weeks have strengthened them even more.
Saquon Barkley is questionable for this Week 14 game and that would be a massive blow for the New York Giants who are going to want to run the ball if only to keep the Philadelphia Offensive unit cooling down on the sidelines. It has been much tougher to do that consistently against the Eagles Defensive Line in recent games and it could become a very long day in the office for Daniel Jones if the Giants fall a couple of scores behind this NFC East rival.
Daniel Jones is a mobile Quarter Back and can make plays with his legs, but trying to throw against the Eagles from behind the chains is an incredibly difficult challenge. Even more so when you think of the injuries to the New York Wide Receivers, which has been an issue all year.
A fierce pass rush will feel they can get to Jones if he spends any time in the pocket and the Philadelphia Secondary are continuing to play at a high level, which only adds to the expected stresses on the New York Offense.
It should be noted that the Philadelphia Eagles have not been as dominant on the road as they have at home and that despite their sole loss being in front of their own fans. Wins on the road have come by much narrower margins, including a one point win at the Indianapolis Colts in their most recent outing on the road, and that is some concern when it comes to judging this spread.
The game plan should be pretty comfortable for the Philadelphia Eagles on the Offensive side of the ball and that will begin with running the ball right at the Giants Defensive Line. Miles Sanders is having a solid season at Running Back, but he is well backed up with the options the Eagles have to spot him and Jalen Hurts is also more than capable of picking up huge chunks of yards on the ground.
They should be able to stay in front of the chains throughout this game and the Eagles will be motivated to show how far they have come since they last visited this Stadium in November 2021 when losing and scoring just seven points. Establishing the run will just open things up for Jalen Hurts and the passing game that is still operating strongly even without Dallas Goedhart in the line up.
New York are almost better against the pass than the run by default, but I do think the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith will win their battles on the outside and give the Eagles the Offensive balance that will make it very difficult for the Giants to contain.
As I have mentioned, the Eagles are not easy to trust to cover considering they are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games. They win games, but rarely blow teams away and the Giants have a team that have found a way to stay in games so a backdoor cover cannot be ruled out for the hosts.
However, I do think the Eagles should be highly motivated in this NFC East rivalry game and they do have a team that are capable of winning and winning well.
The Eagles do have a poor 2-5 record against the spread in their last seven games against the New York Giants, but this Philadelphia team looks much stronger than their Divisional rivals and I think they show that.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: Injuries are always going to be a massive factor in the NFL, but the San Francisco 49ers (8-4) have to be incredibly frustrated to lose both their starting and backup Quarter Back. Jimmy Garoppolo could potentially return in the PlayOffs, assuming the 49ers get there, but for now the keys to the Offensive unit will be turned over to 'Mr Irrelevant' Brock Purdy.
The rookie didn't play badly when coming into the team in Week 13, but he is ultimately a Seventh Round rookie and that will have an impact on the 49ers. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan has been firmly behind Brock Purdy in the pressers in preparing for this game, and has suggested that the 49ers will not need to change their approach with Purdy behind Center rather than Garoppolo.
The headlines write themselves in Week 14 as the rookie Quarter Back in San Francisco prepares to face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) and arguably the greatest Quarter Back of all time in Tom Brady. Of course the two do not actually play against each other, but all of the talk with revolve around the two players at the most important position in team sports.
Tom Brady showed off some of the old magic in helping the Buccaneers rally for a big win on Monday Night Football, but there is no doubt that Tampa Bay look short of the very best teams in the NFC. They are a game and a half clear in the NFC South, but winning the Division is anything but secured and the Buccaneers are still lacking the consistency that helped them win the Super Bowl a couple of seasons ago.
One of the big problems for the Buccaneers has been the injuries on the Offensive Line that began in pre-season. It has meant the team have not been able to run the ball anywhere near as effectively as they would have liked and that has only increased the pressure on Tom Brady at Quarter Back.
Effectively this game is going to come down to Brady and the passing game as far as the Buccaneers are concerned from an Offensive point of view. There have been too many moments where big plays have been missed by Brady or his Receivers have dropped the passes, but they can ill-afford to be wasteful in this game if they are going to earn the upset on the road.
While it can be hard to believe they are going to get things right completely in Week 14, I do think the Buccaneers can have some passing successes. As strong as the 49ers are Defensively, they have allowed recent opponents to find some holes in the Secondary and Tom Brady and company have to believe they can produce something positive.
They may actually believe that they match up pretty well with the 49ers on the other side of the ball, especially with Brock Purdy playing at Quarter Back. In recent games the return of some key players on the Defensive Line have made the Buccaneers much more stout against the run and stopping the 49ers from getting in front of the chains would be a huge advantage for Tampa Bay.
Of course, you cannot underestimate Kyle Shanahan being able to scheme up something in place of a traditional run game by getting the ball into the hands of his skill players with short passes from the Quarter Back. Christian McCaffrey is the obvious threat, but Deebo Samuel is another who could benefit and at least keep Purdy and the Offensive unit in front of the chains.
Brock Purdy's test could be whenever he is in third and long spots as he will be dealing with the Buccaneers pass rush and I expect some exotic looks to be given to the rookie. This is a Defensive unit that has kept Tampa Bay in games when the Offense has been struggling and I think the Buccaneers will believe they can slow down the run and make Brock Purdy beat them through the air.
The young Quarter Back played well against the Miami Dolphins last week, but this time the Buccaneers will have been preparing all week to face Brock Purdy and that can make the difference for another team from Florida to have more success.
With that in mind, I can't have Tom Brady and the Buccaneers as an underdog that could cover even if they lose the game.
There are plenty of trends that favour the 49ers, including the long trip being made by Tampa Bay on a short week, but the Buccaneers as an underdog for the first time this season is appealing. The Defensive unit can at least contain the San Francisco Offense to give Brady and the Buccaneers the chance of a backdoor cover at the worst and I do think Tampa Bay will play with a considerable effort knowing they have been set as the underdog against a third string Quarter Back.
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: It is never ideal to spend a week away from home and not in the midst of a difficult scheduling period when set to play three road games in succession. Becoming a good team also means being picked for National Television coverage and that is something the Miami Dolphins (8-4) have not been asked to do for a long time, but now they have to deal with also being flexed into a Sunday Night Football slot before having to take on Divisional leaders the Buffalo Bills on Saturday in another single game position.
Head Coach Mike McDaniel is not bemoaning the spot and instead asking his players to embrace it- ultimately he has arrived in Miami with the ambition of the team being strong enough to play Prime Time slots and the players have to get on board with that.
A loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 is a blow, but not a fatal one to where the Miami Dolphins want to go this season and they are still in control of their own destiny. At this point, missing the PlayOffs would be a huge disappointment, but the Dolphins are aiming higher and they will win the AFC East if they can win out with five games left.
Of course that means not overlooking the Los Angeles Chargers (6-6) who are firmly in the Wild Card mix in the AFC and who are also looking to recover from a road loss. The defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders means the Chargers have lost three of their last four games and they are certainly struggling to maximise Justin Herbert's ability at Quarter Back.
It isn't the Coaching fault in reality, but injuries have hurt the Chargers on both sides of the ball and it has made it very difficult for Los Angeles to find any sort of consistency through the season. The record underlines the point, but the Chargers will feel their remaining five games gives them every chance to win at least four and reaching ten wins should be enough for a Wild Card place.
Still, any team that has been losing as much as the Chargers have been will have some questions to answer and they will be hoping the week the Miami Dolphins have spent on the West Coast has been a distraction rather than a help for the road team. In recent games it has felt like all the pressure has been on Justin Herbert to pass the Chargers to victory and they are facing a Miami Defensive Line which has really begun to clamp down on the run this week.
A banged up Los Angeles Offensive Line have also struggled to create the holes for Austin Ekeler at Running Back and I do think Herbert will be called upon.
He does have Keenan Allen back at Wide Receiver, but Ekeler may be the more important player considering the problems Justin Herbert has in getting enough time to throw. His Offensive Line are missing key players and are acting like something of a revolving door in recent games as Justin Herbert continues to be hit, and hit hard, and time runs out pretty quickly for him.
Bradley Chubb's arrival in Miami has sparked a fierce pass rush and I do think they will get to Justin Herbert any time they have the Quarter Back behind the chains. This will stall drives or force Field Goals and that is not a good thing against one of the most improved Offensive units in the NFL.
Miami have been a real revelation on the other side of the ball thanks to the addition of Tyreek Hill and the Mike McDaniel mind at Head Coach. This has rubbed off on Tua Tagovailoa, although the Quarter Back was a little banged up last week and will be needed closer to full health for the Dolphins to get back to winning ways.
I wasn't convinced about Tagovailoa, but he has made a fan out of a doubter and I do think he is going to find huge holes to exploit in this one. Last week he missed some throws, perhaps down to the injury he picked up, but I do think the Quarter Back will look closer to his old self in this one and the Chargers Secondary is one that will struggle to hold onto Hill and Jayden Waddle.
Tua Tagovailoa can only be helped by the Running Backs- the arrival of Jeff Wilson has been huge for the Dolphins- and the Miami Offensive Line are expected to open things up against this porous Chargers Defensive Line. Moving in front of the chains opens the play-action down the field and it is hard to imagine the Chargers containing Miami barring Tagovailoa being way under 100%.
The Quarter Back is not expected to be faced with much pressure from the pass rush from the Chargers and that should only make things that much more comfortable for Tagovailoa.
The game at the Buffalo Bills next Saturday is a potential distraction, but the loss in Week 13 should have sharpened the Miami focus.
Miami have not always been at their best bouncing back from a loss and they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, but the Chargers are struggling.
In a shoot out, I think the Dolphins prevail with their superior balance on both sides of the ball and I think they can be backed to cover.
MY PICKS: Las Vegas Raiders - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Jets + 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
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