There is no getting away from how much Week 5 and Week 6 stung with some horrific results, but the bounce back has been a positive and means the season totals are now very much back in the black thanks to another strong outing last week.
Once again, I will say this is not the time to be getting carried away and there are plenty of tough moments to negotiate between now and the Super Bowl, but it is good to have put an end to those horrible two weeks and move the winning selections over the line.
Keeping that momentum going is the only focus I have as we enter Week 10 of the 2022 season.
I haven't really been able to write out full threads for the Weekly Picks in a while, but in this thread I have my updated top five in the NFL:
1) Philadelphia Eagles (8-0): The last remaining unbeaten team who look to have the balance on both sides of the ball. However, I still feel the Eagles have yet to be fully tested.
2) Buffalo Bills (6-2): Yes, they lost last week, but the bigger concern is Josh Allen's injury status. If his throwing arm is going to be limited going forward, the Buffalo Bills will sink in the AFC.
3) Dallas Cowboys (6-2): I am probably higher on the Cowboys than most, but I really think this could be the year for Dallas to have the PlayOff run that their long suffering fanbase has been hoping for since the mid 1990s.
4) Kansas City Chiefs (6-2): Patrick Mahomes will always make the Chiefs dangerous, although I do wonder if the Defensive unit and the Offensive Line will hold up.
5) Miami Dolphins (6-3): Another surprising team perhaps? As a Dolphins fan I have become used to disappointment, but this teams feels different. Oh, and they have yet to suffer a loss in a game that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished.
That may be my current top five, but I am expecting the San Francisco 49ers to soon break through as I have them, the Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys as my three favourites in the NFC. Barring injury, I would say those three teams are most likely to make the PlayOffs and it is hard to see which other team in the NFC would really fancy their chances of knocking those off.
The Buffalo Bills have looked the best team in the AFC, but the Josh Allen injury is a massive concern. If he was to worsen and miss the rest of the season, the whole Conference opens up and I think there would be a host of teams who believe they could go all the way to the Super Bowl and potentially win it all too.
Week 10 begins with a NFC South game on Thursday Night Football.
Further Picks from the games to be played on Sunday and Monday will be placed in the thread in the coming days.
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The AFC East is the only Division in the NFL that has four teams with winning records competing within it, but the NFC South is in a completely situation. All four of the teams in this Division have losing records and all four are still very much competing for a PlayOff spot, but things can begin to take shape when two of those meet in Week 10 of the 2022 season on Thursday Night Football.
This is the second meeting between the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) and the Carolina Panthers (2-7) in three weeks after a very, very close, competitive meeting between the teams in Atlanta in Week 8. That was a game that needed Overtime, although the Carolina Panthers have to be feeling pretty sick with the way they blew the end of the regulation time with the game looking to be firmly in their control.
The efforts in Week 8 clearly took their toll on the struggling Carolina Panthers who were almost expectedly blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9. It may also have contributed to the Atlanta Falcons late loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, although the feeling is that Atlanta will have invested a lot more into that Week 9 effort than the Panthers seemed to do.
Despite being two games out of the Divisional lead, some may feel the Panthers are already thinking about tanking and trying to finish with a top five Draft Pick after the capitulation at the Cincinnati Bengals. However, I do think this Thursday Night Football scheduled game was a distraction for them and I am expecting a much stronger effort all around from the home team.
They will need to put in a stronger effort in their bid to snap their two game losing run than they produced in the defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals, but my feeling is that the Divisional rivalry will see that happen. PJ Walker is getting the call again at Quarter Back, even though Baker Mayfield gave the Offensive unit a spark on Sunday, but this should be a more comfortable day in the office for the unit on this side of the ball.
Carolina couldn't really lean on D'Onta Foreman last week, but I expect the Running Back to have a much stronger outing on Thursday Night Football and especially against this Falcons Defensive Line. In the game between these NFC South rivals two weeks ago, Foreman was able to pile up over 100 yards on the ground and added three Touchdowns and I do think he will put the Panthers in a position ahead of the chains.
With little pass rush pressure around him and being in third and manageable, PJ Walker should be able to hurt the Panthers Secondary much like he was able to do in Week 8. Avoiding turnovers will be key for the Quarter Back, but he is throwing into an Atlanta Secondary that has given up an average of 337 passing yards per game across their last three games and who allowed Walker to throw for 317 passing yards in Week 8 too.
I do think the Carolina Panthers will be able to move the ball and score their points, but the Atlanta Falcons will feel they are stronger than they were in Week 8 now that Cordarrelle Patterson is back in the line up. The Falcons were able to run the ball very effectively against the Carolina Panthers in their first meeting and I think Patterson will be able to pick up from where Caleb Huntley left off.
This should make the life of Marcus Mariota pretty comfortable at Quarter Back as the Falcons establish the run and open up play-action passes. Being in third and manageable is also much better for any Quarter Back in the NFL and Marcus Mariota should have time to make some big plays with his arm.
He has not been as consistent as he may have liked, but Marcus Mariota played well against the Carolina Panthers two weeks ago and will feel he can put up some solid numbers for his team again. The two Interceptions on the day were almost fatal for the Atlanta chances to win the game, but Marcus Mariota should have time in the pocket when he does step back to throw.
It feels like it is going to be another close game between these NFC South rivals, although the short week does raise a few more uncertainties.
I backed the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9 against the Carolina Panthers and that was largely down to the feeling that the latter may not be focused in that game. After putting in a huge effort to come up short in Week 8, it was perhaps no surprise that the Panthers were lacking energy last Sunday, but I am also expecting a much more motivated Carolina team to come out in this one.
They can move the ball with a bit more balance than the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers can improve the 5-0 run the underdog is on in this series when it comes to the spread.
It is difficult to back the Panthers with a lot of confidence considering some of the truly terrible trends they have produced in recent years, but the Atlanta Falcons are 1-4 against the spread in their last five Thursday games. I would have loved to have gotten the hook over the Field Goal number, but the Carolina Panthers can do enough on home field to make even this number of points count.
Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: First things first, this is the last international game the NFL are sending to Europe this season as they play in Munich, Germany to expand onto the continent. In previous years, London has been the sole host of the European games, but the NFL is absolutely massive in the Netherlands and Germany and the quick sell-out shows the appetite for the regular season to be played in those venues.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) and the Seattle Seahawks (6-3) head to Munich as the current NFC South and NFC West Divisional leaders, although there have been a lot more questions about the former this season. The Buccaneers have been one of the big disappointments so far, but the win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9 may be the spark the whole team has needed.
On the other side, the Seattle Seahawks are arguably the biggest surprise in the NFL this season having traded away Russell Wilson in the off-season and decided to go with veteran Geno Smith at Quarter Back. The Geno Smith career has not reached the heights he would have hoped, but he has looked more than a serviceable starter in 2022 and has been a key leader for the young Seahawks who have shown an improvement in each passing week.
They will lean on Smith at Quarter Back, but the main game plan for the Seahawks has to be establishing Kenneth Walker III and the run. The Seahawks Offensive Line have been very happy when the call is made to grade the road and Walker III has been one of the top Running Backs in the NFL with a burst to break through the Line and hit the Secondary very hard.
In recent games the Tampa Bay Defensive Line have struggled to stop the run and I do think Seattle will be in a position to take advantage.
That makes it much easier for Geno Smith if the Seahawks are in third and manageable for much of the afternoon. It should mean having a bit more time to make his throws with some quality Receivers like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett making his plays for him, and I think the Seahawks will be able to move the chains even in this tough scheduling spot.
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be looking forward to the Bye Week that follows this one and they will have been pleased to have seen the Atlanta Falcons already beaten in Week 10. They remain banged up in a number of areas on both sides of the ball, and Brady has yet to really get on the same page as the Offensive Line which is much changed from the one that helped the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl a couple of years ago.
Offensive Line troubles have also affected Leonard Fournette and the Running Backs being used- the Buccaneers are only averaging 2.8 yards per carry in their last three games and this Seattle Defensive Line has been clamping down on the run in recent games as the entire Defensive unit continues to grow into the season.
An inability to run the ball has meant Tom Brady has been relying on his arm to keep the chains moving and he does have some big name Receivers that can make plays for him. The problem for one of the best of all time is that the Line has not protected him as well as he would like to allow time for his Receivers to get down the field and I would expect Tom Brady to be under pressure from what has been a powerful Seattle pass rush.
The pressure up front has really helped the young Seahawks Secondary and I do think they will feel they can do enough on this side of the ball to earn the upset.
It is far from an ideal start time for the West Coast based Seattle Seahawks, but they have the momentum and I do think they can dominate at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay will be over-rated by the layers knowing people will want to back Tom Brady, but the Buccaneers are 0-6-1 against the spread in their last seven games and I do think the Seahawks have every chance of winning this one outright.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: The Minnesota Vikings have a healthy lead in the NFC North, but the Chicago Bears (3-6) and the Detroit Lions (2-7) may yet feel there is a potential Wild Card spot available with a strong end to the season. On the other hand, the trades made by both teams before the deadline are less encouraging for the fans when it comes to the 2022 prospects and instead this could be a season in which these teams continue to grow and look for much better next time around.
The Bears in particularly will be keen to develop Justin Fields at Quarter Back and the recent performances of the young player has to be exciting. Bringing in Chase Claypool gives the Quarter Back another Receiving option, while the Bears look to have decided to make full use of Justin Fields' attributes and got him moving the ball with his legs too.
Running the ball has been key for the Chicago Bears in recent games and I do think they will be able to hit the Detroit Defensive Line on the ground. A RPO line up will be even more difficult to stop after seeing Fields crush the Miami Dolphins on the ground in Week 9 and I do think the Bears Offensive Line will be strong enough at the line of scrimmage to keep the team in front of the chains.
From there, Justin Fields can throw the ball with some success against this Detroit Secondary and there has been a feeling that the Chicago Bears are finally feeling like they can have their Quarter Back throw more than they did earlier in the season. The Lions made some big plays in the passing game when Aaron Rodgers was trying to throw against them last week, but they bent plenty before the turnovers created in the End Zone and I do think the Chicago Bears will be balanced on the Offensive side of the ball to keep the Lions scrambling.
After trading away a couple of the leaders on the Defensive side of the ball, it is going to be a tough end of the season for the Chicago Bears and I do think the Lions will have plenty of successes in this one too. Jared Goff did not have to do a lot in the winning effort against the Green Bay Packers in Week 9, but the Quarter Back should be able to have a solid day in this Divisional battle.
He will be helped by the running game and the Detroit Lions should be able to keep themselves in front of the chains and that should give Goff the chance to have a stronger day throwing the ball. A limited Chicago pass rush is not expected to pressure the Quarter Back and so Jared Goff should be able to have a big game like his opposite number.
This should be a game featuring plenty of Offensive output, but I do lean to the home team.
The Detroit Lions put in a big effort to beat the Green Bay Packers and you do have to wonder if they can dig that deep again at Soldier Field where they have been beaten in three of their last four visits.
Over the last year and a half, the Bears have been a pretty good home favourite to back, while the Detroit Lions are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games. The Bears are also 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five at home and I think they can do enough at home to earn the victory with Justin Fields being let loose.
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins Pick: A big win over a Divisional rival before going into the Bye Week will have given the Cleveland Browns (3-5) a boost as they continue to try and manage the situation before Deshaun Watson is able to return at Quarter Back. Three more games have to be negotiated before Watson can return, but it is a tough stretch for Cleveland out of the Bye.
First up is a trip to Florida to take on the streaking Miami Dolphins (6-3) who will be going into the Bye Week after this game. An injury to Josh Allen has potentially opened the AFC East up for a new Champion and the Miami Dolphins have yet to lose a game that has been started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa.
Back to back win road games at the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears shows a motivated and concentrated Miami Dolphins team, but this may be a tougher challenge than the two Defensive units that have been faced in those wins. In recent games, the Cleveland Browns have remained competitive thanks to the level being produced by the Defense and they will feel they can give their Offense a chance to win this one in an upset on the road.
The Cleveland Defensive Line have been strong up front and they won't be too concerned with the Miami running game, even with the addition of Jeff Wilson Jr to the Running Back room. For all of the positives we have seen from the Dolphins this season, they have not yet found the right way to establish the run and have been very reliant on what looks like one of the stronger passing Offenses in the NFL.
This time Tua Tagovailoa will be tested by a Cleveland Secondary which has held their last three opponents to under 200 passing yards per game, although the Quarter Backs faced have not had the kind of Receiving threat that Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle will pose down the field. In saying that, the Browns have been able to get their pass rush going thanks to the ability to clamp down on the run and the Miami Offensive Line will not find it easy to give their Quarter Back the time to allow the Receivers to make their routes down the field.
Stopping Miami completely will be a test for any Defensive team in the NFL, but the Cleveland Browns have to believe they can at least restrict their hosts and give Jacoby Brissett and the Offensive unit a chance.
Jacoby Brissett will be well used to playing in this Stadium having been a member of the Miami Dolphins in 2021 and he has just been holding the keys for Deshaun Watson while the suspension is completed.
The reality is that the Cleveland Offensive Line will be tasked with opening up the running lanes for Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb and they are certainly capable of doing that against this Dolphins Defensive Line. In recent games, the Dolphins have not really been able to stop teams picking up big yards on the ground, but the Offensive scoring power has forced a change in the game plan.
In this one the Cleveland Browns are likely going to stick with pounding the rock and trying to make things easier for Jacoby Brissett at Quarter Back. The Offensive Line have not been as strong in pass protection as they have in run blocking, but being in front of the chains should make things pretty comfortable for Brissett as it should ease the ability of Bradley Chubb to wreck plans up front.
Jacoby Brissett will also be throwing into a Secondary that will give up some big plays and I do think the Cleveland Browns can at least stay with the Miami Dolphins.
Cleveland have not been the best out of a Bye Week under Head Coach Kevin Stefanski who is in his third season here, while they have not been able to back up wins with a strong return at the window.
The Dolphins had been a team that were not only winning games, but covering regularly, but they are now just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games and I do think the Defensive issues means they will allow a potential backdoor cover here.
Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans Pick: You cannot ignore the kind of effort that the Tennessee Titans (5-3) put into their Week 9 loss at the Kansas City Chiefs and coming so close to a win, only to lose, is tough on the players. Derrick Henry continues to carry the AFC South leaders on his back, but the Titans may be bolstered by a returning Ryan Tannehill at Quarter Back.
Trading away AJ Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles has dented the passing game anyway, but Malik Willis has really not been asked to throw too many times in the two starts he has made for the team in place of Ryan Tannehill. It has made the Titans even more one-dimensional, not that the Houston Texans or the Kansas City Chiefs have had a lot of success slowing down Derrick Henry even knowing what is coming.
This week it will be tasked to the Denver Broncos (3-5) who are coming out of their Bye Week having last played in London in Week 8 and finding a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The victory may have been enough to keep Nathaniel Hackett in his role as Head Coach of the Broncos, but this is a team who have underachieved to the point that they were willing to trade away Bradley Chubb.
A decision to bring in Russell Wilson to spark the Offensive unit and back up the strong Defensive play we have seen in Denver has not paid off as the Broncos would have hoped. However, the Broncos are still in a position where a strong end to the season could see the team push their way into the PlayOff positions in the Conference.
One of the main problems on this side of the ball has been the inability to run the ball consistently, especially now Wilson is not the scrambling Quarter Back he once was in his time with the Seattle Seahawks. Trying to establish the run against the Tennessee Defensive Line is a huge challenge at the best of times, and I am not sure Denver are going to have much success in this one, which does shift the pressure onto the passing game.
Russell Wilson has been feeling the pass rush pressure all around him with the team left in third and long more often than not, and that is going to be a problem against the Titans. The home team have been disruptive when it comes to getting to the Quarter Back and Russell Wilson could find himself throwing under pressure, which can lead to big mistakes down the field.
Tennessee have seen the Defensive unit step up and make their plays to keep the team competitive even without much of a semblance of a passing Offense and that is likely to be the case here.
However, this time it looks like a returning Ryan Tannehill could be in the starting line up and that will force Denver to at least respect the fact that the veteran can throw the ball down the field and the Titans will allow him to do that. It will make stopping Derrick Henry that much more challenging and that is a concern for the Broncos Defensive Line which has left some big holes to be exploited up front.
The big Running Back will likely have another strong outing with plenty of touches and King Henry can put the Titans in a strong position to win and cover.
A Thursday Night Football slot in Week 11 can be a distraction for teams, but the Titans won't be too concerned about the Green Bay Packers after the way the season has gone for them. A Conference game is more important and I think the Titans game plan does not change much with their returning Quarter Back, but it is a plan that could be difficult for Denver to stop.
Last weekend was a difficult loss for Tennessee to take, but Head Coach Mike Vrabel is very strong at getting his team refocused and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven following a loss. Tennessee are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home, while the Denver Broncos are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven on the road.
I expect a heavy does of Derrick Henry on one side and a fierce pass rush on the other to help the Titans move onto six wins of the season and remain in firm control of the AFC South Division race.
MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 9: 4-1-2, + 5.36 Units (14 Units Staked, + 38.29% Yield)
Week 8: 5-2, + 5.16 Units (14 Units Staked, + 36.86% Yield)
Week 7: 5-3, + 3.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)
Week 6: 2-6, - 8.34 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.13% Yield)
Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)
Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)
Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
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