The relatively short season means there are plenty of big games being played every week, but only seven selections have felt good enough to get over my threshold and I am looking for the start of a strong run to close out the regular season before the Championship Games are played.
Over the last couple of weeks we have seen some big name schools capitulate and others rise after a miserable 2021 season- that is the nature of the ever-changing landscape of College Football and it means adjustments have to be made much faster to avoid falling into a hole.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: The winner of the Big Ten East will not only be a big favourite when it comes to the Big Ten Championship Game, but they are also very likely to be invited into the College Football PlayOff. Both the Michigan Wolverines (6-0) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) are unbeaten and feeling like they can be the team to reach that PlayOff, although the Ohio State Buckeyes are likely to have a big say in matters having entered their Bye Week unbeaten.
These two teams cannot spend any time worrying about the Buckeyes with a game against them to come, but instead the focus has to be on the unbeaten team facing them in Week 7 of the College Football season.
Both teams have impressed so far, but the Michigan Wolverines are playing with the extra point of trying to prove that last season wasn't just a flash in the pan. Jim Harbaugh's team have lost some hugely talented players to the NFL, but they have not allowed that to distract them too much and the Defensive unit looks to have reloaded effectively.
Most would have expected the Wolverines to drop off on this side of the ball, but the unit looks like it is capable of matching the very effective unit of 2021 and that would be a huge boost for Michigan in their bid to return to the PlayOff. This may be the toughest test of that Defense in 2022 so far, but every sign points to the fact that the Wolverines are capable of stepping up against a Penn State team that were restricted to 17 points two weeks ago.
A problem for the Nittany Lions is that the Offensive Line may not be able to establish the run in the manner they would want against this Michigan Defensive Line which has been in fine form all season. Making teams one-dimensional eases all decisions for a Defensive unit and the Wolverines have been able to clamp down on the run and produce the kind of Line that we have become used to seeing in Ann Arbor.
While they may give up a few more yards than their season average against a talented Penn State team, I do think Michigan can have enough success to force the pressure onto Sean Clifford's shoulders at Quarter Back. The Nittany Lions Offensive Line has been able to protect Clifford when he has stepped back to throw, but they have not faced a pass rush like the one that the Wolverines are able to generate and that may mean making errors when attacking this Michigan Secondary.
Shutting down Sean Clifford and the Penn State Offensive unit completely is unrealistic, but I do think the Wolverines have enough of an edge on this side of the ball to at least restrict them on the scoreboard. Clamping down on the run and making some big plays through the air could force Penn State to have to settle for Field Goals rather than Touchdowns and that should give the home team the chance to win the game and cover what is a pretty big spread.
The line of scrimmage is always a big part of the game in these big College battles and that is on both sides of the ball- while Michigan will feel they can at least win up front on the Defensive side of the ball, the Penn State Nittany Lions have to be pretty happy with what they have seen from their own Defensive Line when it comes to shutting down the run.
Of course Penn State have not really faced anyone like Blake Corum so far this season and the Wolverines Offensive Line remains a massive strength for the home team. My lean is with the Wolverines to just impose themselves when it comes to the run blocking and I think that will make life all the easier for their Offensive unit compared with Penn State's.
Blake Corum should have another decent day and being in third and manageable should be a huge bonus for JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back. Since coming in as the starter, McCarthy has played with confidence and there are definitely big holes in the Nittany Lions Secondary that can be exposed by the Quarter Back who just produced his best game of the season.
Third and manageable also controls the Penn State pass rush and I do think the Michigan Wolverines are the stronger team and can show that on the day.
Michigan were beaten in the Big House by Penn State a couple of seasons ago, but earned revenge with an important road win last season.
I have to respect how Penn State have played as the road underdog under Head Coach James Franklin, but Michigan are 7-3 against the spread when set as the home favourite since the beginning of the 2021 season and I think the Wolverines Defensive unit makes the plays to help their team cover and remain unbeaten.
Arkansas Razorbacks @ BYU Cougars Pick: After finishing with a winning record in 2021 for the first time since 2016, Sam Pittman and the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-3) are dealing with increased expectations. The Head Coach has admitted his team are banged up and desperate to head into their Bye Week following this game, but Pittman will be looking for the Razorbacks to try and snap a three game losing run which has dropped them back to 0.500 for the season.
All of those losses have been in the SEC and that means the Razorbacks are in the basement position in the loaded West Division, one that is regularly filled with some of the best teams in College Football.
Injuries are not an excuse, but they do provide a backdrop as to why Arkansas are perhaps not playing as well as they would like. They were narrowly beaten by the Texas A&M Aggies before more comfortable losses to the Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi State Bulldogs, although the Razorbacks may feel this is an 'easier' game when travelling to take on the BYU Cougars (4-2) in an important game on the road to becoming Bowl eligible again.
The Cougars look healthier than Arkansas, but they were well beaten by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish last weekend, despite having one last possession to try and tie the game. Ultimately they were outgained in terms of yardage by a considerable margin and the Cougars have been well beaten in a road game at the Oregon Ducks before losing in Las Vegas to the Fighting Irish in Week 6.
BYU do hold a home win over Big 12 Baylor Bears though and I do think the healthier squad gives them a better chance of bouncing back compared with the Arkansas Razorbacks who may be looking for a reprieve by heading into the Bye Week. The Razorbacks could be without starting Quarter Back KJ Jefferson for a second game in a row having missed his presence in the defeat to the Bulldogs last week, while the Secondary have taken considerable hits all season.
There is no doubting that the BYU Cougars have the qualities to hurt the Razorbacks when they have the ball in hand and the balance shown on the Offensive side of the ball makes BYU very dangerous. They have been able to run the ball efficiently in recent games and I expect them to establish the ground game against a Razorbacks Defensive Line which has been worn down from their last three SEC games and have allowed 227 yards per game on the ground at 6 yards per carry.
With a depleted Secondary in front of him, Jaren Hall can have a big game for the Cougars at Quarter Back and managing a game from third and short situations is only going to make life that much easier for him.
I don't think you can dismiss the road team out of hand because of the injuries and I do think Arkansas have an Offensive Line which is very strong at grading the road in run blocking themselves. The Razorbacks should be able to have success against this BYU Defensive Line, although the home team may be able to sell out to stop the run if KJ Jefferson is having to sit out another game at Quarter Back.
Malik Hornsby did not really have the best game in relief of Jefferson last week and the Cougars Secondary have played well this season. It may allow them to use more men around the line of scrimmage to try and force Arkansas to take to the air and I do like the home team to win this one.
Sam Pittman has never lost a non-Conference game since taking over as Head Coach of the Razorbacks and that has to be respected, and that run includes a win over the Cincinnati Bearcats. However, his team are just 2-8 on the road straight up in his two and a half seasons in charge and I do think the Cougars being healthier gives them a better chance at bouncing back from a Week 6 defeat.
Recent BYU trends are anything but encouraging, but I do think they have the edge on Homecoming in Provo and I think they win this one.
Stanford Cardinal @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: You don't have to look too far into the history books to recall a time when Stanford Cardinal (1-4) were winning double digit amount of games in each season, but recent years have been much tougher for David Shaw. The Head Coach is unlikely to be fearing a firing, but Shaw is overseeing another season in which a losing season is likely and that would mean the Cardinal having had one of those in three of the last four years.
The one point loss to the Oregon State Beavers would have really hurt last week, but at least Stanford showed some signs of life after being blown away by the USC Trojans, Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks earlier in the season. However, four losses in the Pac-12 means a hard road is ahead for the Cardinal if they are going to turn things around and somehow win six games to become Bowl eligible.
It is a long shot as an experienced team has struggled and they have to visit South Bend this week against an improving Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-2) team that have won three games in a row. Brian Kelly has left, but new Head Coach Marcus Freeman will have been disappointed in the defeat to the Marshall Thundering Herd that has likely ended Notre Dame's hopes of making the College Football PlayOff.
He had not been left with a bare stock, which would have stung in the opening two losses, although the improvement is clear in recent games. Marcus Freeman will be demanding more and he recognises that he is likely going to be Coaching against a Stanford team bringing their best effort in what could be considered their most important game left in 2022.
Notre Dame should be able to move the ball efficiently when they have it though and that is because the old days of a solid Stanford Defensive Line look well behind the Cardinal. They have given up huge amount of yards on the ground in each of the last two seasons and this current Stanford Defensive Line has allowed 237 yards per game on the ground at 6.5 yards per carry in their last three games as the competition has ramped up.
I have little doubt that the Fighting Irish Offensive Line will be able to bust open some big running lanes in this one and that makes things much easier for the Offensive Co-Ordinator when it comes to calling the game. There have been one or two holes in the Stanford Secondary, while the Notre Dame Offensive Line has been able to give Drew Pyne plenty of time in the pocket to make his plays down the field.
There are still one or two inconsistencies with the play-calling and the execution on the Offensive side of the ball, but the feeling is that the Fighting Irish will be able to do as much as they would like in this one. That shifts the pressure onto Stanford and whether they can put an end product some of their more productive drives and try and keep this one close.
Issues on the Stanford Offensive Line have not really helped Tanner McKee who has thrown 10 Touchdown passes and 5 Interceptions on the season- those issues have made it difficult for Stanford to run the ball as they would have liked and they are not expecting to get a lot of change out of this Fighting Irish Defensive Line, which means McKee will have to rely upon his arm to keep the chains moving.
Another problem with being ineffective on the ground is that Tanner McKee has to throw from third and long spots and the Cardinal Offensive Line have offered little protection to allow routes to develop down the field. In this one they are facing a fierce Notre Dame pass rush which has ramped up their play in this winning run and I do think Tanner McKee will have some drives falter as he continues to try and make plays under pressure.
I do think Tanner McKee can make some big time throws, but the consistency is likely to be lacking and I think that helps the Fighting Irish pull away for a big win.
Notre Dame are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight against Stanford and have won three in a row by 19 points or more.
The Fighting Irish are also 6-3 against the spread as a home favourite since the start of 2020, while Stanford are 3-8 against the spread as the road underdog in their last eleven in that spot. The Cardinal were crushed by Notre Dame at home last season, but David Shaw has not had the best record in revenge situations against the spread and I will back the home team to secure a big win.
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: The Big Ten East is likely going to send a team to the College Football PlayOff with Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State all unbeaten and expected to be favourites to win the Big Ten Championship Game irrespective of which of the three make it to that Championship Game.
At the same time, the Big Ten West could not be any wider open with three teams sharing a 2-1 record within the Division and that doesn't include the Minnesota Golden Gophers or the Wisconsin Badgers.
Two of those three teams will face off in Week 7 of the College Football season as the Purdue Boilermakers (4-2) host the Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-3). After only just missing out on the Big Ten Championship Game last season, Purdue have entered 2022 with plenty of experience on both sides of the ball and tough back to back road wins at the Golden Gophers and Maryland Terrapins has gotten them back on track in the Division.
A narrow loss to the Penn State Nittany Lions is the only setback suffered by the Boilermakers who won nine games last season and are a solid team under Head Coach Jeff Brohm.
Things seem more settled for the home team, but the Nebraska Cornhuskers are playing well under interim Head Coach Mickey Joseph who took over from Scott Frost after a 1-2 start to the season. Mickey Joseph oversaw a thumping by the Oklahoma Sooners, a result that has not aged well at all, but the Cornhuskers have beaten the Indiana Hoosiers and Rutgers Scarlet Knights out of a Bye Week and can put it all on the line in this Week 7 game ahead of a rare second Bye Week.
You do have to feel that the Cornhuskers still need a big improvement if they are going to upset the odds and win this game in West Lafayette, especially as they gave up more yards than they earned against Rutgers in Week 6. The Nebraska Offensive Line is struggling to open big holes for the running game and I do think they are going to struggle to establish any consistency in this one against a Purdue Defensive Line which is backing up the performance of last season.
That means it will be up to Casey Thompson at Quarter Back to keep the chains moving for the road team and that will be far from easy if playing from third and long situations. The Offensive Line have not been the best in pass protection, but Thompson will have chances to exploit the Boilermakers Secondary if he does find a bit of time considering the recent numbers produced by Purdue.
Ultimately the Cornhuskers are likely going to have to lean on the Defensive unit if they are going to be in a position to upset their hosts and they have allowed just 35 points in two games out of their Bye Week. Granted, those have been against two teams who are a combined 1-5 in Big Ten Conference play this season, but Nebraska will play with some confidence.
Much could come down to the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball too- in recent years Purdue have been criticised for the lack of consistency running the ball, but the feeling is that this Offensive Line is playing better than recent editions and there are one or two cracks in the Nebraska Defensive Line which can be exploited.
Being in third and manageable would be a big advantage for Purdue and their Quarter Back Aidan O'Connell and it would also mean he is given a little more time to make his throws. Aidan O'Connell has had one or two issues with Interceptions that need to be cleaned up if the Boilermakers are to make the Championship Game, but the Quarter Back does have a high completion rate and he is throwing against a Nebraska Secondary which has been allowed over 240 yards per game in their last three.
Games between these Big Ten West rivals have tended to be close and competitive in recent years, but I do think the Boilermakers can pull away in this one thanks to their control at the line of scrimmage.
The Cornhuskers have been a team that have thrived when placed in the road underdog role in recent years and that has to be respected considering how many points they are receiving in this game. However, Purdue are 10-0 against the spread as the home favourite of more than 13 points in Conference games and I do think they have a more consistent pathway to Offensive success in this Week 7 Big Ten game.
The road team may be 5-1 against the spread in the last six in this series, but I think Purdue will have enough to win this one by two Touchdowns on the day as they likely dominate at the line of scrimmage.
MY PICKS: Michigan Wolverines - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
BYU Cougars @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 16.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Purdue Boilermakers - 13.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oregon State Beavers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)
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