It has been a tough season for the College Football Picks and there has been some frustration over the last couple of weeks.
There is still time to get things going in a positive direction, but a winning Week 8 is important.
Cincinnati Bearcats @ SMU Mustangs Pick: The American Athletic Conference has done away with Divisions for a couple of seasons, but that did not prevent them from finally sending a team to the College Football PlayOff last season. It is almost impossible to see a situation in which the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1) will have another shot at making the PlayOff in 2022 having lost to the Arkansas Razorbacks in Week 1, but they have won five in a row since then and Head Coach Luke Fickell will know his first and main ambition of any season is winning the Conference Championship Game.
This is the third Conference Game of the season for the Bearcats who are playing after a Bye Week, but they have to remain focused and not think too far ahead to the important game against the UCF Knights coming up in Week 9.
After watching the SMU Mustangs (3-3) beat the Navy Midshipmen to move back to 1-1 in the Conference, I do think the Bearcats will be focused enough to make sure their winning run continues.
The Mustangs had lost three in a row before the win over Navy, but they have been piling up plenty of Offensive numbers even in those defeats. They were blown out by the UCF Knights largely because they lost the turnover battle, but the SMU Mustangs are dangerous and they will be highly motivated to end their three game losing run to the Bearcats.
Tanner Mordecai is the key for the Mustangs and the Quarter Back has played well this season having already produced more than 2000 passing yards, although he failed to record a Touchdown pass against the UCF Knights and was guilty of throwing an Interception. The Quarter Back was much better against the Navy Midshipmen, but it is going to be an issue for SMU if they are not able to find balance with their play-calling when they have the ball in their own hands.
Running the ball has been very difficult against the Cincinnati Bearcats though and so it does feel like Tanner Mordecai is going to have throw from third and long situations. I expect him to have some success, but this Cincinnati Secondary is playing well and that has been helped by the incredibly strong pass rush the American Athletic defending Champions have been able to generate up front.
Finding an Offensive balance looks much more likely to be achieved by the Bearcats who have used the Bye Week to help Ben Bryant return safely after suffering a concussion. The Quarter Back has taken over from Desmond Ridder this season and he has played well for Cincinnati having returned to the team having spent a year playing with the Eastern Michigan Eagles.
Unlike Tanner Mordecai, Ben Bryant will not feel largely responsible for keeping the chains moving because he is backed up by a strong running game that should be able to get the better of the SMU Defensive Line. Charles McClelland should be able to pick up from where left off before the Bye Week and keeping the Bearcats in third and manageable means the entire play-book remains open for Ben Bryant.
It also eases the pass rush when the run is an option and I do think that will give Ben Bryant enough time to hit the Mustangs in the Secondary and put the Cincinnati Bearcats in a strong position to win and cover on the road.
Interceptions have been an issue for the Bearcats when they take to the air, but the same has been holding back the Mustangs and the difference between the two teams could be the play of the Secondaries. It is an area where the Bearcats look to have the edge, while being able to lean on the ground attack should give them enough balance to win this one ahead of the big game against the UCF Knights.
The Bearcats have not always been the best road favourite to back, but this number looks just short enough to be able to back them here.
Both teams have some negative trends at the window to overcome, but the Cincinnati Bearcats are 4-1 against the spread in the last five between these teams and can extend that.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Players and Coaches have long memories in College Football and the NFL, although the turnover in the College game means there are unlikely to be anyone left that was on the roster in 2017 when these two teams last met. In 2017, the Iowa Hawkeyes (3-3) didn't just upset the Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) at home, but they absolutely crushed them as an Unranked team and the game has been the talk of the town as they prepare to face each other in Week 8.
That game was won by the Iowa Hawkeyes at home, and they had been 18 point underdogs on the day, but it is a completely different challenge for them heading to Columbus. For starters the Buckeyes were not an undefeated team in 2017, while, secondly, the Hawkeyes have looked completely out of sync Offensively and may struggle to score enough points to cover with a much bigger start on the handicap.
Iowa are just 1-2 in the Big Ten West this season and they are averaging just 14.7 points per game, which is a surprise when you think they have seven starters back from the team that averaged 23.4 points per game last season.
Moving the ball against the Buckeyes Defensive unit is going to be a huge challenge for the Hawkeyes who are struggling to run the ball or throw the ball with any consistency. They did give the Michigan Wolverines something to think about when facing them at home earlier this season, but that was largely down to a strong Defensive performance and I think the Hawkeyes are going to be reliant on that unit to keep them in this one at Ohio Stadium.
Ultimately I don't think anyone thinks the Hawkeyes are going to suddenly burst into life Offensively even with the Bye Week to try and sort things out.
However, there is a feeling that the Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive unit can at least give the Ohio State Buckeyes the most to think about since they scored 'only' 21 points in their Week 1 win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Ohio State have scored at least 45 points in each of their next five wins, but the Hawkeyes have to have confidence in their Defensive unit to at least try and contain things.
They are facing a powerful Ohio State Offensive unit who have been led by Quarter Back CJ Stroud, but who have a huge amount of skill players ready to make the difference for them. The Buckeyes are well balanced on this side of the ball as they are capable of throwing the ball as well as running it and that presents a challenge to the Hawkeyes.
Iowa's Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run and they may feel they can get CJ Stroud throwing out of third and long on occasion, although the Quarter Back is well protected by his Offensive Line and likely to be throwing from a clean pocket. Even with that in mind, Stroud will be facing a Hawkeyes Secondary that have only allowed 154 passing yards per game this season and who have ball-hawking players that can make a big play or two to get the ball back to their Offensive unit.
Stopping the Buckeyes is clearly not going to happen, but the key to the outcome of this game for the Hawkeyes, especially against the spread, is whether they can make enough stops. I have to assume Iowa will struggle to score more than 14 points, but they can cover by keeping the Buckeyes below 44 points in that case and I think that is possible for this Defense.
Of course I've mentioned the fact that the Buckeyes have scored at least 45 points in five straight wins, but the Fighting Irish held them 21 points and this Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive unit is arguably the best the Ohio State Buckeyes would have faced this season. The home team are going to want to run up the score after Head Coach Ryan Day admitted the memories of 2017 still bother him, but the Hawkeyes have usually been well prepared on a rest and they can keep this game much more competitive than the layers believe it will be.
There is much to admire about the Buckeyes who will be targeting a spot in the College Football PlayOff, but the Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven road games when playing a team with a winning home record and I think they can show enough pride to avoid the massive blowout.
Mississippi Rebels @ LSU Tigers Pick: The SEC was shaken up considerably last week when the Tennessee Volunteers ended a sixteen year wait to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide. Nick Saban had not been beaten as Head Coach of the Crimson Tide against Tennessee, but that loss has opened things up for the other schools in the SEC West Division as well as the Conference as a whole.
The Mississippi Rebels (7-0) and LSU Tigers (5-2) are most likely to take advantage with the former being 3-0 in Conference play and the latter being 3-1. Both of those teams will be facing the Crimson Tide next month, but they can build some momentum by winning what is the biggest game of the week in the SEC.
The feeling is that we are about to learn all we need to know about the Rebels who have been good enough to take advantage of what can only be described as a kind schedule. The Week 7 win over the Auburn Tigers was impressive, but the Rebels have not been tested nearly as hard as the LSU Tigers who have also faced Auburn, but additionally Tennessee and the Florida Gators.
An early defeat to the Florida State Seminoles likely ends LSU's real chances of making the College Football PlayOff barring them running the table and other Conference Champions slipping up. It is a defeat that has not aged well, while Head Coach Brian Kelly was very disappointed in the effort and execution during the home blow out at the hands of the Volunteers two weeks ago.
His Tigers team struggled in all aspects of their Football that day, but looked much more at it when beating the Florida Gators last time out. That will be encouraging, although LSU have to find a way to show better balance Offensively if they are going to keep up with the Rebels in what could easily be a track meet in Baton Rouge.
Armoni Goodwin could return for LSU to try and bolster their rushing attack, but the Tigers Offensive Line have not been the most convincing whether it comes to run blocking or pass protection. They may have an opportunity to establish the run against the Mississippi Defensive Line, which has been guilty of allowing some big plays on the ground, but Brian Kelly will be the first to admit his team need more consistency.
If they cannot find that on the ground, the pressure will be on Quarter Back Jayden Daniels who has responded with 10 Touchdown passes and a single Interception this season. The dual-threat Daniels offers makes him a challenge to all Defenses that he faces, but the Rebels will feel they can crash the pocket with the pressure they have been able to generate whenever the Tigers are in third and long spots and that could see Mississippi just stall a few drives.
The Rebels look to have the superior balance of the two teams from the Offensive point of view and I do think Lane Kiffin's team will be able to run the ball to open up the passing lanes. In recent games, the Rebels Offensive Line have piled up the yards on the ground and it won't have been lost on them the amount of yards that Tennessee churned out on the ground in their win in this Stadium.
With the team likely to be moving the chains into third and manageable on the ground, Jaxson Dart should have time to either look to convert those with his legs or his arm from the Quarter Back position. Interceptions have been an issue for Dart this season, but he should have time in the pocket to try and exploit the holes that have opened up in the LSU Secondary in Conference play.
The LSU Tigers have dominated the recent head to head between these SEC West rivals and they are at home, but I do think the Mississippi Rebels match up very well with them. Playing in Baton Rouge has been hard work for the Rebels in recent visits, but I do think they are coming into this one with more confidence than usual and I do think the ground attack gives them the edge in a game that could come down to which of the teams have the ball last.
Mississippi have not been at their best as the road underdog in Lane Kiffin's two and a half years as Head Coach, but I can't help think that the Rebels should have been favoured like the Tennessee Volunteers were here. They may not be as good as Tennessee, but I think the balance on the Offensive side of the ball proves to be the key to the outcome and I will look for the the Rebels remain unbeaten.
Kansas State Wildcats @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: After rallying from a big deficit and finally overcoming the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Overtime, the TCU Horned Frogs (6-0) are the last remaining unbeaten team in the Big 12 Conference. They are 3-0 within Conference play after that victory and they hold wins over both the Cowboys and the Oklahoma Sooners, although big tests remain beginning with this one at home.
The big question is how much the Overtime win in Week 7 has taken out of the TCU Horned Frogs, although they will be given a significant boost from the home crowd. They will need all of that against the Kansas State Wildcats (5-1) who are also 3-0 within the Big 12 and who had had a Bye Week to just rest a few tired legs and prepare for this hugely important Conference Game.
The Wildcats have already shown they can be road warriors with wins at the Oklahoma Sooners and Iowa State Cyclones, but their fate will be determined over the next four weeks. Following this game in Fort Worth, the Kansas State Wildcats have to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys, Texas Longhorns and Baylor Bears meaning they are facing four opponents with a combined 19-6 record.
Kansas State had actually been outgained by both Oklahoma and Texas Tech in terms of yardage before the narrow win over the Cyclones in Week 6 and that has to be a slight concern. Adrian Martinez has rejuvenated his College career with the Wildcats and the Quarter Back is going to be very important again, but it may be a more difficult test than it might have been if Kansas State are unable to move the ball on the ground as efficiently as they would like.
Keeping Adrian Martinez in third and manageable will allow the Quarter Back to attack the Secondary and also cool down an improving TCU pass rush, but the Horned Frogs Defensive Line have found a way to clamp down on the run up front. That will be key to the last unbeaten team in the Big 12 as they look to make the Wildcats one-dimensional and begin to stall drives by forcing Punts and Field Goals.
The Quarter Back is a dual-threat in this one and so the Horned Frogs will have to keep tabs on Adrian Martinez, but the home team will feel they can do enough to at least get the ball back in the hands of what has been a powerful Offensive unit.
Much like his opposite number, Max Duggan has felt rejuvenated at Quarter Back this season, one in which he started behind Chandler Morris. An injury meant an early change and Max Duggan has not looked back with efficiency throwing the ball leading to 16 Touchdown passes and a single Interception.
Max Duggan can move with his legs too, but he will be confident handing the ball to Kendre Miller and allowing the Running Back to make plays behind what has been a TCU Offensive Line matching pre-season expectations to be one of the best in the Conference. Some may say they have actually overachieved and been amongst the very best Offensive Lines in College Football when it comes to establishing the run and I do think the Wildcats are going to find it very difficult to stop the Horned Frogs from getting into third and manageable spots through this game.
That should only make things more comfortable for Max Duggan at Quarter Back and holes could open up considering the Wildcats have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game in their three Conference games. I would expect Duggan to have a very strong game and the Horned Frogs may be able to back up their big win last week by seeing off the team right below them in the Big 12 standings.
TCU do not have a good record at the window nor against the Kansas State Wildcats in recent seasons, but I think this Horned Frogs team is as good as there has been in Forth Worth over the last few years. They easily look the best team fielded since the Horned Frogs won eleven games in 2017 and I believe they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to set the platform for success.
They have not been the best Conference favourite to back in recent times, and they have failed to cover in that spot in both situations this season, but I do think the TCU Horned Frogs can use the home crowd to push clear of the Kansas State Wildcats in the top Big 12 Conference Game set to be played in Week 8 of the 2022 season.
MY PICKS: Cincinnati Bearcats - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes + 30 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
West Virginia Mountaineers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels + 1 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 7: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)
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