The last couple of weeks have been very difficult to absorb and it stings all the more when a backdoor cover just kicks you in the teeth while you are down.
I will update this thread with the totals before the Sunday NFL games in Week 7, but the Thursday Night Football pick can be read below with more to follow in the next two days.
New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: There have been upset after upset through the first six weeks of the NFL season and just a quick look through the Divisions shows how tight the majority of them are.
In saying that, this is an important Thursday Night Football game for two teams who have been underachieving through the first third of the 2022 season. Both the New Orleans Saints (2-4) and Arizona Cardinals (2-4) are two games below 0.500, but they are fortunate to be playing in Divisions where the leaders are only at 3-3.
That does mean an opportunity to turn things around is not yet beyond these teams, but there is going to feel like a massive difference between being 3-4 and 2-5 at the end of Week 7.
Injuries have really hurt both teams and key players are likely to be missing for both on Thursday Night Football when you consider the short week to get those out of action back on the playing field. The New Orleans Saints could be without their starting Quarter Back and two of their top three Receiving options, while they are also banged up in the Secondary, while the Arizona Cardinals lost Marquise Brown in Week 6.
One positive for the Cardinals is that DeAndre Hopkins is back, although the short week means limited time back in practice for the Wide Receiver having served his suspension. No one should doubt how important Hopkins has been to the Arizona Offensive unit, while the addition of Robbie Anderson in a trade from the Carolina Panthers is another boost, even if a short-term one.
The other positive for the Cardinals is that they may not need much of a boost on the Offensive side of the ball if the Defensive unit continues to play to the level they have been- they gave up 44 points to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1, but Arizona have held their last five opponents to 23 points or fewer and are now playing a New Orleans Saints team that are likely without Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry.
Christian Olave is expected to suit up after missing the loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6, while Andy Dalton is a decent enough backup at Quarter Back. The big weapon for the New Orleans Saints is likely to be Alvin Kamara, although he may be more of a threat as a pass catcher out of the backfield rather than on the ground considering how well the Cardinals have begun to clamp down on the run.
Last Sunday, Kenneth Walker III broke a big run against the Cardinals Defensive Line and Geno Smith proved to be a threat with his legs, but Arizona will feel they largely contained the Running Back and cannot expect Andy Dalton to have the same running threat as Smith.
The Arizona Secondary is playing pretty well too as they have gotten some solid pass rush pressure in recent games and I do think the absence of key Receivers will hold New Orleans back. The Saints may move the chains on some drives, but I do like the way the Cardinals could match up with them on this side of the ball and they can limit the scoring as they have done in recent games.
Once again the question will be on Kyler Murray and the Arizona Offense which has sputtered all season and averaged just 19 points per game. I do think the return of DeAndre Hopkins will certainly help, while the Saints Defensive Line have struggled to stop the run in recent games and that could mean another big game on the ground for Murray at Quarter Back.
The Cardinals are banged up at Running Back, but I do think they could establish a threat on the ground, especially with the Saints perhaps a little more way about the passing options that Kyler Murray has in this game. It is important to be able to at least offer a threat on the ground so the New Orleans pass rush can be eased a touch, while Murray should have considerable success throwing against this vulnerable Secondary as long as the team are in front of the chains.
This is the first meeting between the teams since New Orleans blew out Arizona in 2019, but I do think the Cardinals can win this time around, even if they are incredibly difficult to trust.
The main reason for that is that the Cardinals have lost an incredible eight home games in a row since opening the 2021 season 7-0 overall.
However, I do think this looks a good match up for Arizona and the short week cannot help the banged up New Orleans Saints. Thursday Night Football has not been good to the Saints when playing a non-Division opponent and they are 0-6 against the spread in the last six in that situation, and I do think the Cardinals are playing better than their results with the return of DeAndre Hopkins and arrival of Robbie Anderson expected to spark an Offense that may only need 20-24 points to win and cover.
It won't be pretty at times, but Arizona can snap their miserable run at State Farm Stadium and get back in amongst the top of the NFC West by joining their three rivals with three wins in the 2022 season.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: After using their backup Quarter Back to win four games in a row, the Dallas Cowboys (4-2) are likely to have Dak Prescott back in the line up in Week 7 as they look to bounce back from the defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite the strong record, the Cowboys were dropped into third place in the suddenly super-competitive NFC East behind the aforementioned unbeaten Eagles and the 5-1 New York Giants.
Two games at home against struggling NFC North teams should help the Cowboys get back on track and it should also mean that not too much is expected from Dak Prescott on his return to the team.
First up for the Cowboys is hosting the Detroit Lions (1-4) who were blown out in Week 5 before entering an early Bye Week. Head Coach Dan Campbell will have been pleased with the break as it gives his team a chance to try and get some players back from injury, although the Lions are still expected to be short-handed in areas across their units.
It is going to be a challenge for Jared Goff and the Lions Offensive unit who failed to score a single point in the blowout loss to the New England Patriots in Week 5. This week they are facing a Dallas Defensive unit that have played really well all season, and who may have a bit more time for recovery between drives assuming the Dallas Offense will be able to extend drives now they are expected to have more balance with their play-calling having replaced Cooper Rush with Prescott.
The Lions will try and establish the run to put the Offense in a strong position, but this Dallas Defensive Line have been very strong up front and they will look to clamp down on the rushing attack. It has been the key to unleashing a very strong pass rush, while the Dallas Secondary will believe they are capable of making the big plays to stall the Lions, even if Detroit will be much better than they were in their defeat to the New England Patriots.
Jared Goff will make some plays, but he has to be careful with the ball throwing against a Dallas Secondary that have found Interceptions as the pass rush has gotten home.
Running the ball is going to be the first ambition of the Dallas Cowboys too and I do think they are going to have more success than the Lions in this regard.
While the Offensive Line have been hit with injuries that have made things a bit more difficult, the Cowboys have two quality Running Backs and teams may not be able to load the box as much as they would do if Cooper Rush was behind Center. That should open things up a little more for both Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard, while the Detroit Defensive Line have not been able to slow down the rush prior to the Bye Week.
Protection should not be an issue for Dak Prescott with the team likely to be in front of the chains, but the big question for the Quarter Back is going to be how well his thumb has healed. As long as he is close to 100%, I do think Prescott will find holes to exploit in the Lions Secondary and the whole Dallas passing game should be much better.
I can understand the thinking in backing the Lions, who are well Coached under Dan Campbell and who would have irritated with the efforts in the defeat to the Patriots, while it is never easy for a returning Quarter Back to be at his best after a significant layoff.
However, I do think the Dallas Defensive unit can make the difference, while Prescott may not have to do too much to keep the chains moving. He is a big upgrade on Cooper Rush and I think that will open up the running lanes for the home team, which can set them on their way to a win by a Touchdown.
The Lions do have a very strong 9-1 record against the spread when playing with time to prepare and the Dallas Cowboys are not always the best home favourite to back. However, they did cover in that spot against the Washington Commanders this season and I do think the Dallas Cowboys will be very focused in trying to secure back to back home wins before the Bye Week as they try and keep pace in a surprisingly good Division.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Injuries are always the biggest issues for NFL teams to overcome in the long regular season and those have certainly played their part in the Miami Dolphins (3-3) three game losing run. After an incredibly positive start to the season, Tua Tagovailoa took a huge hit early in the Thursday Night Football game at the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 and the Dolphins have not been able to win a game in his absence.
Some of the players will be wondering how that remained the case after dominating the Minnesota Vikings at home in Week 6, but they do have their starting Quarter Back in the line up for this Sunday Night Football game and I think that is a huge boost for the Dolphins.
The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6 to remain in touch in the AFC North, but it has been a difficult season for Mike Tomlin and his men. The Head Coach will struggle to avoid his first losing season, especially as the Steelers are banged up on the Defensive unit and relying on a rookie at Quarter Back to spark their year.
Kenny Pickett has not performed badly and he has some seriously good Receiving weapons, but the last Quarter Back class coming out of the Draft has not really been one that has many thinking franchise Quarter Back. The Steelers Quarter Back was the first to be selected in the position, but the expectations are being managed in Pittsburgh and Pickett is seen as a complete work in progress.
There is still a chance that Mitchell Trubisky will have to suit up for the Steelers with Kenny Pickett going through the concussion protocol, but the latter is trending in the right direction. Regardless, it is going to be difficult for the Steelers to really believe they are going to find a consistent Offensive game plan and that is mainly down to the fact that they are struggling to run the ball, and thus placing a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back to get things moving.
The Dolphins Defensive Line have actually played the run pretty well in recent games and they are generating a bit more of a pass rush so the feeling is that they can get into the Steelers on this side of the ball. That combination up front has also seen the Secondary improve their numbers in recent games and I do think Miami are ready to bounce back on primetime this week.
Having Tua Tagovailoa back is a boost, although Teddy Bridgewater came in and played well last week after Miami opened the loss to the Minnesota Vikings with Skylar Thompson behind Center. The Interceptions proved costly on the day, but Tua Tagovailoa has looked after the ball pretty well in his three and a bit games played this season and I do think the Quarter Back has a very good match up on his return against a banged up Steelers Secondary.
In his absence, the Dolphins have also been able to generate a bit more of a rushing crease to their Offense and that can only make things a touch more comfortable for their returning Quarter Back. Of course the Steelers are never easy to run the ball against, but the issues in the Secondary might mean things are a touch more open up front.
Even with extra men in coverage, the Steelers are giving up a huge amount of yards in the air, while TJ Watt's absence continues to be felt when it comes to generating a consistent pass rush.
I do think Tua Tagovailoa will have enough time to find his strong Receiving corps and I think the Miami Dolphins can win big as they snap their three game losing run.
Miami have been very good as the home team going back to last season, while the upset over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be difficult for the road team to back up with continued uncertainty about their Offensive efforts.
MY PICKS: Arizona Cardinals - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 13 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Las Vegas Raiders - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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