A cold has laid me low for a few days, but I am going to be adding the selections for Week 5 of the NFL season here.
Last week saw one winner from one selection, but I do feel I left plenty of meat on the table.
Hopefully that is not something to regret and, ultimately, I will take a winning week every week over a losing one. Three in a row have been produced, let's hope it is the start of number four.
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos Pick: Two teams who have traded for Quarter Backs who have previously played, and in one case won, a Super Bowl were hoping that the upgrade in the most important position in the NFL would be a huge spark for the 2022 season. The Denver Broncos (2-2) and the Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) have been a disappointment to this point, while injuries in Week 4 have hurt their chances of turning things around even with barely a quarter of the season in the books.
The records is perhaps a little flattering for the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts with some narrow wins earned, although both sets of players would likely point out a couple of very unfortunate losses/ties that have already been recorded.
No matter how you frame the start of the season, you cannot ignore the fact that neither Russell Wilson of the Broncos nor Matt Ryan of the Colts has been able to provide an Offensive spark in the manner their respective teams would have hoped.
Playing on a short week is far from ideal for either team when you think of the kind of injuries suffered on both sides of the ball- Indianapolis are going to be touch and go as far as Jonathan Taylor is concerned, while Shaquille Leonard has to be considered unlikely; on the other side, Denver lost their starting Running Back Javonte Williams and have also placed Randy Gregory on the Injured List.
It does not make for good reading for either team, especially for Indianapolis who may have felt that Jonathan Taylor could finally get his 2022 season underway against a struggling Broncos Defensive Line. This has been a very poor start for Taylor when it comes to running the ball considering the standards he has set in his time in the NFL, while the Colts are reliant on being able to push the ball on the ground to open up the playbook for the Quarter Back.
Even without Taylor, assuming he does miss out, I do think the Indianapolis Colts will be looking to pound the rock and try and put the Offense in third and manageable spots. That will be important for Matt Ryan who will be dealing with Offensive Line problems if left in third and long, even with Randy Gregory out of the line up for Denver.
The Broncos Secondary has also played pretty well and they have kept Denver competitive in games, which does bode well against the Colts on Thursday Night Football.
A bigger question for Denver is whether Russell Wilson can rediscover some of the form that saw him play in two Super Bowls for the Seattle Seahawks (including beating the Denver Broncos). His time at Seattle ended with many believing the Offensive Line and playmakers had left Russell Wilson short of the talent he needed on both sides of the ball, but the banged up Quarter Back is being asked some questions now.
Too many Sacks have already been absorbed, but the Colts have not really been able to generate the pressure they would have liked up front and that has to be highly encouraging for Russell Wilson.
Now they are without Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon has to show the Coaching staff that his early ball security issues are not going to be hindering the team and the veteran himself. This is a difficult Colts team to run upon consistently, but Wilson can move the ball with his own legs and short passes may be used to keep the Broncos in front of the chains.
Drops haven't helped the Wilson passing numbers, but he at least had some success against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4, even in the losing effort.
Regardless, it feels like it is going to be a close game with very little between them on the night.
In a usual time slot, I think this would be really close, but the Thursday Night Football slot definitely gives a lean towards the Broncos. There is no doubting that Denver have long been tough to play at Mile High and the two key players likely to sit out for Indianapolis- Taylor and Leonard- hurt them on both sides of the ball.
Travelling through time zones from East to West has been tough for teams on the short week too- those who have been forced to travel through two timezones, like Indianapolis, are 2-12-1 against the spread on Thursday Night Football.
Only the Green Bay Packers have proved they can handle that situation and I do think the Denver Broncos are the slightly stronger team all around.
Elite Quarter Backs are not likely to suffer too many back to back defeats, but Russell Wilson has been very good at bouncing back from the spot and especially against the spread. He is a little banged up, but I think he is playing with more support than Matt Ryan right now and I think Russell Wilson helps Denver improve their 11-4 record against the spread in their last fifteen games when playing on Thursday Night.
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The NFL international series has been a success, but London has tended to be given the short end of the stick when it comes to the quality of teams that have been sent over for the regular season.
Games have looked pretty good on paper, but there has never been one that features two teams that hold a winning record... Until now.
The New York Giants (3-1) are something of a surprise in the NFC East, a Division full of surprises with three of the four teams having won at least three games already this season. Big Blue will always have plenty of supporters, but the big excitement in London is finally having the Green Bay Packers (3-1) becoming the final of the thirty-two teams to play on these shores.
Aaron Rodgers is plenty excited to be playing in London, although I am not sure his views are shared by the Coaching staff with this feeling like an unfamiliar set of circumstances in which to prepare for an important game. After just about edging out the New England Patriots in Week 4, the Packers are still not quite operating at full tilt and it does make it very difficult to back them to cover such a big spread.
However, I do think they match up pretty well with the New York Giants who have struggled to stop the run all season- I expect plenty of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon with the Packers Offensive Line looking healthy and having graded the road in run blocking very efficiently.
Both Running Backs should pound the ball with success and I think both are also capable safety blankets for Aaron Rodgers when it comes to throwing the ball. Keeping the reigning MVP in third and manageable will make things that much easier for the Packers to keep the chains moving and Aaron Rodgers should have time in the pocket to target his Receiving corps, one that is still trying to show they can find the level that their Quarter Back would be expecting.
It won't just be the Packers looking to pound the rock- Saquon Barkley has been a huge part of the early New York Giants successes and it has been a struggle for the Green Bay Defensive Line to clamp down on the run. Even in winning games against the Chicago Bears, the Packers were hammered on the ground and only a big lead forced the Bears away from the gameplan.
I do think Barkley will have success behind Daniel Jones, who has been cleared at Quarter Back and is set to start in London. The movement of Jones has been key for New York and the big question will be whether he has the same confidence in his ankle from pre-injury to get away from the pass rush when he does drop back and keep the ball rather than handing off to Barkley.
Daniel Jones is blessed with even less support in the Receiving areas compared with Aaron Rodgers and the New York Quarter Back is simply not as good as Rodgers either. His passing numbers have been poor all season and Daniel Jones could be faced with a huge amount of pass rush pressure whenever the Giants are behind the chains and I do think this is going to be the difference on the day.
Where Aaron Rodgers can make some key throws, Daniel Jones may not and the Giants may have to move away from the run if they fall behind, as the Chicago Bears were forced to do in Week 2.
The Giants have experienced the trip to London before and they may be better placed in that regard, but I think the Green Bay Packers will give their fans across the pond something to celebrate. The Packers have played very well against Conference opponents and my belief is that they can control the clock with a little more balance Offensively and that should see them pull clear in the second half.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: There has been a huge amount of parity in the NFL through the first four weeks of the season and the AFC South is no different to so many Divisions in the League. The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) are leading the way in the South, and they are 1-0 in the Division, but they have struggled to impose themselves against their biggest rivals when they are not called the Indianapolis Colts.
The Houston Texans (0-3-1) are the only team in the NFL without a victory this season, but they have won eight in a row against the Jacksonville Jaguars and that will give them confidence. Lovie Smith will be happy with the Defensive unit that has kept the Texans competitive, but he will need more from the Offense when they have the ball in their hands if Houston are going to get back in touch with the rest of the Division.
Davis Mills is the current Quarter Back, but he has not really been able to show that he can take the Texans forward and you have to imagine a First Round Pick will be used on a signal-caller next season. No team is going to be thinking about tanking after just four weeks, but the Texans are short of the quality of many others in the NFL and they are going to be up against a Jacksonville Defensive unit that has played with confidence early in the season.
The Jaguars Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run and they will be looking to force Davis Mills to beat them through the air- in the last three games, the Jaguars have looked like a team that can contain things up front and the confidence from playing as well as they did against the Philadelphia Eagles will put Jacksonville in a strong mental state for this Divisional challenge.
Clamping down on the run brings a powerful Jaguars pass rush into play and they can rattle Davis Mills into making a mistake or two that can give the home team the edge.
With limited support in the passing game, Davis Mills may not be able to score a lot of points against this solid looking Jacksonville Defensive unit and will certainly give Trevor Lawrence and the Offense a chance to win and cover.
Trevor Lawrence looks much improved as a passer this season after going through a few rookie troubles and I think he will benefit from a bit more success that James Robinson and Travis Etienne are likely to have running the ball. The Jaguars have not been able to establish the run as efficiently as they would have liked this season, but this is a big opportunity for both Running Backs to get going and at least put Jacksonville in third and manageable spots.
The Offensive Line has looked after Trevor Lawrence for the most part this season and I do think the Quarter Back will bounce back from his personal mistakes in the loss to the Eagles as the team slipped back to 2-2.
Houston's Secondary have produced some decent numbers, but some of that is down to the fact that teams have been able to have a lot of success running at them. Building leads means teams will also focus on the ground game and I think the Jacksonville Jaguars can snap their losing run to the Houston Texans and cover the big spread.
You cannot ignore the fact that the Jaguars have been a poor team to back on the spreads in recent years, but the Texans are 6-9 against the spread as the road underdog in their last fifteen in that spot. They will be confident heading to this part of Florida with the run of wins behind them, but the Jacksonville Jaguars look a much better team than last season and they did crush the Colts at home in their sole game here.
There will be a key drive or two in the Fourth Quarter to determine the outcome of this one, but I do think the Jaguars are strong enough on both sides of the ball to enforce their will on the game and come through with a cover.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: A few weeks ago Tom Brady left the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) and the reason given to the media was that he was dealing with something personal. Most assumed he was filming 'The Masked Singer' but reports over the last week suggest that Tom Brady is about to have to go through a divorce after choosing to return to Football following a statement that said he was retiring.
That has not sat well with Gisele Bundchen, but Tom Brady will be trying to compartmentalise his feelings and focus on the game as the Buccaneers look to bounce back from consecutive losses. This is not a familiar position for Tom Brady to be playing in and he has only once lost three games in a row so it may not be the best time for the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) to visit their NFC South Divisional rivals.
The top of the Division is on the line with the winner taking over top spot, but the Falcons are going to have to make do without the likes of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. Those absences are massive on the Offensive side of the ball and I do think Atlanta are going to have a tough time moving the ball with any consistency in this one.
You have to feel that Patterson would have been able to help the Falcons establish the run considering how well the Offensive Line have played and one or two issues the Buccaneers Defensive Line have had in clamping down on the run. However, without Cordarrelle Patterson, I do think the Falcons are going to have a much more difficult time and it also puts pressure on Marcus Mariota who may not be able to employ the usual schemes to his play at Quarter Back.
Marcus Mariota has struggled to throw the ball with consistency all season and losing Kyle Pitts only hurts all the more, while the Atlanta Offensive Line have not been able to give the Quarter Back as much time as he would have liked in the pocket. The Tampa Bay pass rush has been strong and I do think Mariota and the Falcons will need a few breaks to go their way to keep the scoring ticking over.
Back to back losses to the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs will have hurt the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but injuries are beginning to clear up and I do think this is a better team than what we have seen so far.
The Buccaneers do want to find a way to establish the run as their injury hit Offensive Line continues to learn on the job, but their success will mainly come down to the arm of Tom Brady. While the Quarter Back has not been as happy as he could be, Brady has put some solid passing numbers together and he is facing a Falcons Secondary which will find it difficult to slow down all of the options that Tom Brady has to throw for.
With a limited pass rush, Tom Brady should have plenty of time in the pocket to hit his Receivers down the field and I do think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can continue their dominance of the Falcons.
The last three wins for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been by 13 or more points and I do think the home team are going to want to show they are still amongst the elite of the NFC. Facing the injury hit Falcons comes at a good time and Brady has a very strong record against the spread when playing off back to back losses.
It is a very, very big spread, but I do think the Buccaneers will find the scoring power to cover.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: The 3-0 start to the season feels a long way behind the Miami Dolphins (3-1) after the criticism that was hurled at the franchise for their poor decision to start Tua Tagovailoa in Week 4. Days earlier he had looked to have suffered a concussion, but Tagovailoa then took a huge hit in the defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals and the Quarter Back is likely going to be on the sidelines for a while.
Teddy Bridgewater came in for the starter ten days ago, and he will be getting the call at Quarter Back in Week 5 as the Dolphins look to get back on track in their third Divisional game of the season. Wins over the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will have given the Miami Dolphins confidence early in the season, but the injury to Tua Tagovailoa has just soured the mood around the team.
It doesn't help that Miami have the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Xavien Howard banged up- Howard is set to miss out, while Waddle and Hill are both Questionable to play and that leaves the Miami Dolphins short.
All things considered, it certainly makes Miami difficult to trust as the road favourite against the New York Jets (2-2) who split their four games against the AFC North. Zach Wilson was back in the victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4 and the Quarter Back could have a very good game in Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins banged up Secondary.
The Jets should be capable of establishing the run and that should put Zach Wilson in a strong position in front of the chains. With the Dolphins Secondary struggling to make stops, Wilson has the kind of Receiving corps that should be able to win their battles and I do think the Jets will be able to move the chains and make this a very competitive game as the home underdog.
I do think Miami will be able to move the chains with Teddy Bridgewater at Quarter Back, one of the better backups in the NFL, although it is a concern that both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could be missing. The pressure has been on the Quarter Back, whoever starts, because the Miami Offensive Line has not really been able to open up the holes to establish the run and are unlikely to have much more success here.
Protection has been a slight issue too and I do think the Jets will feel they can get to Teddy Bridgewater if they can keep Miami in obvious passing downs.
You can't take anything away from the Receivers who can make Miami very dangerous, but I do think the New York Jets can do enough on both sides of the ball to keep this one close.
The Dolphins have won four in a row against the New York Jets and they are a team who have the Offensive output that can take a game away from an opponent, but I do think the Jets Defensive unit are good enough to keep this one close. As long as Zach Wilson doesn't make the mistakes to allow Miami to pull clear, I do think there are a few holes in the Secondary that the home team can exploit and they may be receiving enough points for the cover.
New York are a team who have not been one to back at the window, but this looks a good opportunity for them to back up the win over Pittsburgh by keeping this one competitive and staying within the spread.
MY PICKS: Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)
Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
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