The NFL season is beginning to take shape as we begin Bye Weeks for teams around the League, although we have yet to really see any team take control and separate themselves from the pack.
Most will feel the Buffalo Bills are the team to beat right now, but they can really prove they are the top team in the NFL by beating the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in what is clearly the best game of Week 6 of the 2022 season.
Other than that, I think many could make a case for a number of teams to win the Super Bowl and injuries are going to be a key to the outcome of the season. We have already seen the kind of impact those injuries can have with the Miami Dolphins who have lost two in a row, and so it is best to make hay when the sun is shining.
Onto the Week 6 Picks.
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Back to back road games are always a tough spot in the NFL, but they become really difficult when a team from the West Coast has to play back to back road games in the early Eastern Time time slot. That is the issue for the San Francisco 49ers (3-2) this week, although they have made a decision to stay on the East Coast following the win over the Carolina Panthers which has helped push the 49ers back above 0.500 for the season.
They are facing another team from the NFC South in Week 6 when the San Francisco 49ers face off against the Atlanta Falcons (2-3), the team with which Kyle Shanahan showed he can be a Head Coach in the NFL having helped get the Falcons to the Super Bowl as Offensive Co-Ordinator.
This is the first time Shanahan will be back in Atlanta with the San Francisco 49ers, but the Head Coach will remind all that this is a business trip and the 49ers can continue to lead the way in the NFC West by winning.
Injuries are not helping the 49ers cause with a number of key Defensive players out of action and more were added to the absentee list last week. At some point this is really going to impact the San Francisco Defensive unit, but I am not sure the Atlanta Falcons will be able to exploit any holes that have been left behind as they look to match up poorly with the 49ers on this side of the ball.
While the Falcons have been able to run the ball efficiently, they are missing Cordarrelle Patterson and now have to face a tough San Francisco Defensive Line which has continued to clamp down on the run. That is likely going to lead to more pressure on Marcus Mariota, who has not been consistent throwing the ball nor has the Receiving threats to pick up for their Quarter Back, and I do think the 49ers can do enough Defensively to contain the Falcons for much of this game.
The absences in the Secondary could be attacking by Marcus Mariota, but I am not convinced that he has the confidence to hurt the 49ers consistently. If he is playing from behind the chains, Mariota is also going to have to deal with plenty of pass rush pressure generated by the San Francisco 49ers and that could lead to mistakes when it comes to throwing into the Secondary.
Unlike the Atlanta Falcons, I do think the San Francisco 49ers will have a balance in their Offensive play-calling that could see them win and cover on the road for a second week in a row.
Jimmy Goroppolo is perhaps not the Quarter Back that can be trusted to win games on his own, but he is surrounded by talent and it will all begin with the 49ers likely running the ball with plenty of success. Jeff Wilson Jr has been a revelation with the ball in his hands and I do think the Running Back can make sure he keeps the 49ers in front of the chains and that only makes life that much more comfortable for a game-manager like Goroppolo.
A clean pocket is likely to be in front of Jimmy Garoppolo for much of the game and the play-action could also be key when he does choose to hit Receivers down the field. There are plenty of threats on the field for the 49ers and all the Quarter Back is asked to do is make sure he gets the ball into their hands and let the skill players show off.
The Atlanta Falcons have been a covering machine to open the season, but they have needed a couple of backdoor covers to keep themselves perfect at the window. This time they are facing a San Francisco team who are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games and I do think the balance Offensively will give the 49ers every chance of winning and covering here.
New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There is a bond between the two Head Coaches leading out the Green Bay Packers (3-2) and the New York Jets (3-2) for this Week 6 game, but that bond will be placed on the back burner for a few days.
Matt LaFleur and Robert Saleh are close, while Matt's brother Mike is the Offensive Co-Ordinator for the New York Jets. Some familiarity has to be expected between the two Coaching staffs, but the focus for both sets will be in winning this game and avoiding falling back to 0.500.
The Green Bay Packers were beaten in London last Sunday as they blew a big lead and ultimately were stopped on the New York Giants goal-line with time running down. Aaron Rodgers hurt his thumb early in the game, but no one associated with the Packers used that as an excuse and instead they are hoping to find a way to produce with a bit more consistency all around.
There is no doubt that they are work in progress Offensively and Aaron Rodgers is looking for someone to step up and help replace the likes of Davante Adams. Younger players are learning on the job and there have been some breakdown in communication when Rodgers has dropped back to throw down the field.
Green Bay will recognise the kind of test the New York Jets Defensive unit will offer, but they will also be very confident in the Offensive Line as the Packers look for them to set the tone. The Packers are a team who run the ball very well and I do think establishing AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones will be the key for them, while I do think the Packers can find a way to do that against a solid New York Defensive Line.
Aaron Rodgers has been well protected by his Offensive Line, but he has yet to really get the passing game going and so it is important to be playing from third and manageable rather than third and long. If the Packers can run the ball like they know they can, I do think they will give Rodgers a big chance to bounce back from a disappointing loss in London to the Giants last week.
I do have to respect the New York Jets Defensive unit, which has helped the team win three of their last four games, although the Jets have certainly gotten the bounce of the ball. Some of the 'fortune' is playing teams who have inexperienced Quarter Backs behind Center, while the Jets win over the Cleveland Browns continues to leave fans scratching their heads.
At least New York will feel they are more productive now that Zach Wilson has returned as the starting Quarter Back in place of Joe Flacco. He has made the big plays at the right times and that has been very important for the Jets as they have beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins to move into second place in the AFC East.
It has certainly helped that Zach Wilson when the Jets have been able to run the ball, but they may find it tougher against the Green Bay Packers Defensive Line. They largely limited Saquon Barkley in Week 5 and the Packers will be looking to shut down Breece Hall and Michael Carter and make sure that Wilson is forced to beat them with his arm.
I expect to see some trickery from the Jets, but Wilson has yet to really be comfortable throwing the ball and I do think he is going to have a tough outing. The Packers Secondary have something to prove after allowing the Giants to produce some long drives last week and fight back from a big deficit, but being back at home off a loss should see them much more focused and ready to compete.
Zach Wilson is likely to be under some pressure from the Green Bay pass rush and I do think the Packers will be more focused following their defeat.
Green Bay are 12-3 against the spread in their last fifteen games following a loss, while the New York Jets are 6-15 against the spread in their last twenty-one road games at a team with a winning record. I still am not completely sold on the Jets, despite backing them with a start last week, and I think the Packers can bounce back from a poor day in London by getting back to winning ways.
New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The real hope for Cleveland Browns (2-3) fans is that the team have something to play for when Deshaun Watson completes his suspension and can begin life as the Browns Quarter Back. Poor personal decisions have led to a couple of tough years for Watson, but he has a big contract with the Cleveland Browns who expect him to be a huge upgrade at the most important position in the team.
With a couple of different bounces of the ball, the Cleveland Browns would perhaps have had a perfect season to hold onto in Week 6, but at the very least they would have expected to have a winning record at this point. Close losses have let them down, but the Cleveland Browns are looking to bounce back from the latest one when they host the New England Patriots (2-3).
Bill Belichick's first Head Coaching role was with the Cleveland Browns, but he has not really found the same success with the New England Patriots since Tom Brady departed for Tampa Bay. This is another season with a young signal caller, but Mac Jones has been banged up at Quarter Back and it could mean another start for rookie Bailey Zappe.
That has meant the Patriots have had to lean on the run game and the Offensive Line have been pretty happy when it comes to blocking up front. New England are expected to have success on the ground, although the Browns may choose to load the box and see if Bailey Zappe has the confidence to step back and beat the Secondary.
A relatively clean game was played against the Detroit Lions last week so Zappe will have confidence in his ability, although injuries do mean the Patriots could be without key Receivers. The Cleveland Secondary is also stronger than the Lions and so they may feel they can take more chances with a young Quarter Back by sending more men to the line of scrimmage and trying to shut down the Patriots on the ground.
Even clamping down on the run somewhat would be a huge achievement for the Browns considering how badly they have handled ground attacks all season. It would also feel like giving the Browns a big edge, especially as they are likely to have plenty of success on the Offensive side of the ball in what could develop into a shoot out.
Cleveland's own Offensive Line have been able to bully opponents and the Browns have two Running Backs capable of moving the ball on the ground. In recent games the New England Defensive Line has struggled to get on top of the run and I expect Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to have a big day for the home team, while Jacoby Brissett is capable of making plays with his legs too.
Jacoby Brissett should also be playing in a clean pocket with the team likely to be in front of the chains and he may have one or two more holes to exploit in the New England Secondary. I think that could be the key difference on the day, even if Bill Belichick is one of the stronger Defensive minds out there and he is likely going to try and erase one part of the Cleveland Offensive play.
Unlike the other side, the Patriots are unlikely to want to load the box and try and clamp down on the run knowing they are facing a Quarter Back who is experienced. Jacoby Brissett is likely to make one or two more plays than Bailey Zappe and I think that is key to the outcome of an important game for two 2-3 teams in the AFC.
Trusting the Cleveland Browns is not easy when you think of the way they have lost games to the New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers this season. However, the Patriots are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six road games and I do think an inexperienced Quarter Back may come up short in this important Week 6 outing.
Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins Pick: This absolutely feels like a square selection in Week 6 as I am expecting the Minnesota Vikings (4-1) to head to Florida and beat the Miami Dolphins (3-2).
As strong as the start to the season has been for the Miami Dolphins, they are going into this one with injuries beginning to take their toll on the team. Losing the starting Quarter Back is unfortunate, but losing the back up too is a blow and the Dolphins are going to give Skylar Thompson his first start.
The young Quarter Back came in for Teddy Bridgewater last week and the lack of preparation probably did not help, although I am not sure Thompson is ready to compete in the NFL. He does have some very strong help on the outside with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, but there is still pressure on a Quarter Back who has not really been expected to be involved with the starting unit this season.
It would make a massive difference if the Miami Dolphins could run the ball with more consistency than they have managed so far this season, but I am not sure that is going to change here. This week the Dolphins have to try and establish the run against the Minnesota Defensive Line which has held team to 4 yards per carry in their last three games as they have shown improvement when it comes to clamping down on the run.
The Vikings Secondary have been a little vulnerable as they have not gotten much pressure up front, but Skylar Thompson may not be the Quarter Back to expose some of those issues. However, while he may not have the same success that Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater could, I do think he has the Receivers that can win their battles and the Dolphins should have some success when it comes to trying to get into scoring position.
The Dolphins will also feel they are playing the run well enough to at least contain Dalvin Cook in this one and have a chance to get into position for an upset, although there is one key difference between the teams.
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings passing game has been looking good this season and there are problems in the Miami Secondary which look likely to be exploited more consistently than Skylar Thompson and the Miami Dolphins are able to do on the other side of the ball. I do think the Quarter Back will be able to connect with his strong Receiving corps to keep the chains moving and he will also have the quick hit down the field which is difficult for Miami to stop.
Miami simply don't get enough pressure up front to prevent Minnesota from moving the ball consistently and I do think that is a main reason the Vikings will be able to win this game on the road.
It feels like a trap line, which is always a concern, while the Vikings are 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games.
The Dolphins have been impressive at home, but I do think Minnesota match up well with the injury hit home team and I think that will see them win this non-Conference game and cover the mark set.
MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)
Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)
Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
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