Another week of College Football action is underway and I am struggling to find a bounce back effort for the Picks.
There are plenty of big games to be played on Saturday 29th October as we now turn the bend and begin to see the finish line as far as the regular season goes.
The Championship Games and College Football PlayOff Rankings could be given a serious jolt if a couple of the top schools are beaten in Week 9 and the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Tennessee Volunteers have to be careful (although you will see that I like both to cover).
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Fans of Big Ten Football will have long been circling November 26th as the date when the Big Ten East Division would be decided and, for all intents and purposes, the game would also likely work out as a de facto Big Ten Championship Game.
As long as both teams are able to reach that November 26th date unbeaten, the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) could also be playing for a place in the College Football PlayOff final four.
This feels like the last significant obstacle between now and the end of November when the Buckeyes have to travel to State College to face the Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1), who will still harbour hopes of pushing their way into the Big Ten East conversation. A defeat to the Michigan Wolverines is the only one suffered by the Nittany Lions, but that means there is additional pressure to win this one and remain relevant in the Division, especially as Penn State will be favoured to win their remaining four regular season games.
James Franklin will be urging his team to avoid thinking about anything other than facing the Buckeyes and then working out where the chips will fall between now and the end of the season. They were well beaten by the Michigan Wolverines, albeit on the road, and that will present a challenge to the players to prove they are better than what they showed a couple of weeks ago.
The Nittany Lions did bounce back to throttle the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but benefited from playing a team who had to use their backup Quarter Back. As impressive as they were, Penn State fans have to acknowledge that fact and also accept that the Ohio State Buckeyes represent a much, much firmer test of their credentials.
Sean Clifford feels healthier at Quarter Back than he was for the defeat to the Wolverines, but the experienced player will also understand that he will need to be almost perfect if his team are to earn the home upset. While Clifford has been well protected in recent games by the Offensive Line, the pressure is on his arm as that Line has been better in pass protection than run blocking and now faces a very stout Ohio State Defensive Line.
It is unlikely that Penn State will have a lot of joy on the ground and Sean Clifford is going to be throwing into a Secondary that has shown off the experience they've built up with the improvements they have made throughout the season.
The Buckeyes pass rush should make the Quarter Back throw quicker than he would like too and I do think Penn State could struggle to move the chains with any consistency, even at home.
Struggles to move the ball impacts the Defensive unit in a couple of ways too- they are under pressure to stand up and make stops of their own, but also do not get the opportunity to rest for as long as they would want between drives. I can certainly see the Buckeyes beginning to dominate in the second half with an Offensive unit that has looked in pretty good sync, even if they were not happy with their start last week against the Iowa Hawkeyes having settled for too many Field Goals.
CJ Stroud is the player that will make the headlines at Quarter Back, but the Buckeyes Offensive Line have played up to the level of pre-season expectations and should be able to dominate at the line of scrimmage. Where the Buckeyes Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run, the Penn State Defensive Line has struggled in recent games and are allowing 4.8 yards per carry.
You cannot really make a case for them changing those kinds of numbers when they are going to be concerned about the ability of the Buckeyes Quarter Back in throwing the ball and I expect the balance on the Offensive side of the ball to prove to be a key for Ohio State.
Games between these rivals tend to be close so it would be ignorant to think this is going to be a one-sided blowout, but I do think the spread has come down to an acceptable level for Buckeyes backers. The Defensive unit should be able to limit the Penn State output and I think Ohio State showed last week against the Hawkeyes that they are in rhythm and can pile up the points against any team they face.
The underdog has been the team to back in the recent series between Ohio State and Penn State, but the Buckeyes did cover in State College as the favourite in 2020. Ohio State have also won six of their last seven on the road at Penn State and I think they will be too hot Offensively for their rivals as all eyes continue to shift to the big game coming up in Columbus at the end of November.
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Auburn Tigers Pick: It is all relative, but the Auburn Tigers (3-4) and Arkansas Razorbacks (4-3) will meet in Week 9 in the midst of what have been underwhelming seasons. Both teams have been struggling in the SEC and both have 1-3 records, which places more significance on this game as the Tigers and Razorbacks hope to become Bowl eligible again.
I think both are capable of actually reaching the six wins they need, but the Razorbacks may have been expecting a lot more in Sam Pittman's third season as Head Coach. Arkansas had nine wins last season and they will need to win at least five of a potential six games remaining to match that total as they come out of their Bye Week.
They did snap a three game losing run when going into that Bye and Pittman had made it clear that his team were struggling with injuries and needed the break to simply reset and get back to basics. The Head Coach sounded much more positive in the build up to this game, especially as they are facing an Auburn Tigers team that have lost three games in a row to drop below 0.500 for the season.
Bo Nix was the Quarter Back at Auburn for a long time and underwhelmed and so it would be stinging a bit more in this part of Alabama to see him performing at a high level for the Oregon Ducks. While their former Quarter Back has been producing, Auburn have not found the same consistency from their own signal caller Robby Ashford, who ironically transferred into Auburn from Oregon.
At least this week Robby Ashford is facing a banged up Secondary that has allowed a lot of big plays throughout the season. That should bode well for the Quarter Back who has just four Touchdown passes to go with five Interceptions, while Ashford should also provide plenty of threat with his legs.
The Tigers Offensive Line have found their strength up front to establish the run and Auburn's game-plan may begin with pounding the rock to make the passing lanes that much easier to negotiate for their Quarter Back. Clamping down on the run has become a particularly challenging effort for the Arkansas Razorbacks in recent games as injuries have begun to wear them down and I fully expect Auburn to be able to move the ball with some consistency.
The same can very much be said for the Arkansas Razorbacks when they have the ball.
Arkansas want to establish the run with their own dual-threat Quarter Back KJ Jefferson and facing one of the most porous Defensive Lines in the nation, let alone the SEC, should be music to the ears of Kendall Briles, the Offensive Co-Ordinator. I have little doubt that the Razorbacks will be able to run the ball over and over again, but the key difference between the two teams may be the play of the Secondary.
Where the Razorbacks Secondary have struggled, Auburn's Secondary have actually played pretty well even if some of that is down to the fact that they almost cannot stop the run. If they can get the Arkansas Offensive unit into a position where they have to throw, the Tigers may feel they can make one or two stops or force Field Goals rather than giving up Touchdowns and that may be enough for the home team to keep this one close.
Robby Ashford is not easy to trust when it comes to stepping back and throwing the ball, but there are holes in the Arkansas Secondary that can be exploited and it is my main reason for believing this will be a close game that is decided by the final possession.
With that in mind, getting more than a Field Goal worth of points looks very appealing for an Auburn team who have an 11-8 record against the spread when given points as the home underdog over the last several years.
The Razorbacks are out of a Bye Week, but they have a horrible record as the road favourite in recent years and I do think that Defensive unit is hard to trust to avoid a backdoor cover for Auburn at the very worst.
The Tigers have a dominant recent record against Arkansas and Auburn are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games out of a Bye Week of their own. Auburn are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these SEC West rivals and I will take the points on offer with the home team to at least keep this one competitive, even if the Razorbacks earn the victory.
Missouri Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: It is hard to make headlines in the SEC when teams around are unbeaten and others have one loss with real ambitions of reaching the College Football PlayOff. However, you have to give Shane Beamer a lot of credit for the job he is doing in his second season with the South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2) who are well on the way to matching the seven wins they recorded in his first season.
The Head Coach may actually be disappointed if the Gamecocks are not able to surpass those seven wins from last season, but the key is to keep the team focused and make sure they are not dropping games they should be winning. The final three games for South Carolina will see them face the Florida Gators before currently unbeaten Tennessee Volunteers and Clemson Tigers so the next two weeks feel pivotal for the Gamecocks to ensure they are Bowl eligible again.
First up is Homecoming against the Missouri Tigers (3-4) who have lost three of their four Conference games. They had covered in the three losses to Auburn, Georgia and Florida, which shows how effective Missouri can be, but avoiding back to back losing seasons under Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz is going to be far from easy without an upset win or two.
A problem for the Tigers is whether they are going to be able to score enough points to earn those upsets, especially with signs of wear and tear building on the Defensive side of the ball. Despite the win over Vanderbilt to end their SEC losing run, Drinkwitz made it clear that his team need to clear up a lot of their Offensive plans if they are going to have more successes this season.
The Tigers have struggled to run the ball with any consistency and the feeling is that they are not going to get a lot of change out of the South Carolina Defensive Line. The Coaches have been working on the Offensive Line to sort out schemes when it comes to run blocking, but it is unlikely that the Tigers will be able to get the better of a Gamecocks team that have clamped down on the run up front.
Inexperienced Brady Cook has been tasked with having to do a lot more at Quarter Back than he is perhaps comfortable with and it does not help that there is Offensive Line issues when it comes to the pass protection as well as the run blocking. With the team likely to be in third and long spots during this game, Cook could feel the heat from the South Carolina pass rush and that may lead to mistakes against a Gamecocks Secondary that has allowed just 192 passing yards on average through the season.
Pressure being generated up front also leads to passes being thrown erratically and Brady Cook has been guilty of Interceptions, while the Gamecocks have feasted on being able to turn the ball over.
This certainly feels like the Gamecocks have the edge when the Missouri Tigers have the ball, but the strength of the Tigers may be the Defensive unit who has helped keep them competitive in games, even those that have seen them beaten. For much of the season the Tigers have been clamping down on the run, but the concern in recent games is that there have been some signs of weakening.
Overall the Missouri Tigers have allowed 128 yards per game on the ground at 3.8 yards per carry, but those have turned into 152 yards and 4.8 yards per carry in their last three games. With an improving South Carolina Offensive Line opening up more holes up front, the Gamecocks may feel they can get in front of the chains and keep things more comfortable for Spencer Rattler at Quarter Back.
He might have been a former Heisman trophy favourite, but Spencer Rattler has struggled to really reach those heights in the last eighteen months. At least with a stronger rushing attack, Rattler is not under the pressure to deliver with his arm, while it may also mean not pushing too much and throwing the Interceptions which have blighted his game.
Spencer Rattler should be under little pressure when he does step back to throw and he can manage this game for the Gamecocks and help the team extend their winning run to five games.
I think the Gamecocks will be able to cover too as they have improved to 4-2 against the spread as the home favourite, while the Missouri Tigers are just 5-14 against the spread in their last nineteen road games.
The performances in covering as the underdog in the three SEC Conference games lost this season is unsettling when opposing Missouri, but the favourite and the home team both have 5-2 record against the spread in the last seven in the series between the Tigers and the Gamecocks and I think that will be extended by South Carolina.
Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: It has been a very long time since there has been this kind of buzz around the Tennessee Volunteers (7-0) who have a huge game on deck against the Georgia Bulldogs. The winner of that one will likely be representing the SEC East in the Championship Game, but the Volunteers would be making a massive mistake if they were to overlook the Kentucky Wildcats (5-2) who have had two weeks to prepare for this game.
You have to expect the Tennessee players to be largely grounded having not become used to the successes they have had so far this season. While others more accustomed to winning Conference Championships and reaching the College Football PlayOff could be thinking ahead, knowing they have this game in hand, the Tennessee Volunteers have to play as hard as possible in every game to reach the kind of standards that the likes of Georgia, LSU and Alabama have produced out of the SEC in recent years.
The Volunteers should be largely ready to go having had an 'easy' game on the schedule in Week 8, but they must respect the Wildcats who snapped a two game losing run by beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 7. Mark Stoops' team can still have a big impact in the Division with a game against the Georgia Bulldogs to come before the end of the regular season, while the Wildcats will be pushing to try and match the ten wins earned in 2021.
Kentucky will need an upset to reach that mark with five regular season games and a potential Bowl Game to be played, but this is a team who play hard and who will fight for every yard on the field.
Injuries have not helped the Wildcats during their run of two losses in three games, but the Bye Week will have given them time to contain those. They may still be short-handed, while much of the Wildcats success on the Offensive side of the ball has come down to being able to establish the run.
However, that is going to be far from an easy challenge against the Tennessee Defensive Line who have been stout against the run and followed that up by producing a very good pass rush. Will Levis is going to start at Quarter Back, which is obviously key for Kentucky, and they may feel he can still have a solid game against the Tennessee Secondary which has been hurt by the pass throughout the season.
Doing it over and over from third and long is the challenge though and Levis will have to make sure he is able to look after the ball in order to avoid giving this powerful Tennessee Offensive unit extra possessions.
Kentucky may be able to score, but you do have to feel that the Volunteers are going to have enough explosive plays to win the game. The big question is whether they can put up the numbers to cover the spread against the Wildcats Defense, which has been a strength of the Mark Stoops led team.
A problem for Kentucky is that their Defensive Line has shown signs of being worn down and the only real hope is that the Bye Week has given them time to reset. Hendon Hooker at Quarter Back is obviously the stand out name on the Tennessee roster, but he is well backed by the skill players around him, while the Offensive Line has opened some big holes up front for the rushing attack and that could see Tennessee find the balance they need.
He looks like he will be going as one of the highest Drafted Quarter Backs, but Hendon Hooker will be tested by this Kentucky Secondary. While the Wildcats don't generate a lot of pressure and Hooker is well protected, the Quarter Back will know that Kentucky play very strong coverage and the running game is key to make sure the Volunteers are playing in front of the chains.
I do think that is likely going to be the outcome of the game and it should see the Volunteers make some late plays that sees them push past the line set for the game. Will Levis can have success for the Wildcats, but it is a tougher challenge when obviously looking to pass and that could see Kentucky drives falter if they begin to chase this game and have to abandon the run.
The underdog and road team in this series has been very good at the window in returning winners, while I never want to underestimate this Kentucky team who are very well Coached. However, they are 7-10 against the spread coming out of a Bye Week and Tennessee should be motivated in securing style points knowing they could be pivotal to earning a place in the College Football PlayOff even with a single loss on the board.
Of course the Week 10 game is a huge distraction, but Josh Heupel is 15-10 against the spread as a home favourite over the last four and a half seasons and I think he will have kept his Tennessee team grounded. With the Offensive firepower at their disposal, I believe Tennessee will score enough points to win and cover against this SEC East rival.
MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 11 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 8: 3-5, - 2.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.88% Yield)
Week 7: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)
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