NFL Week 8 Picks 2022 (October 27-31)

After a brutal couple of weeks, at least Week 7 begun the turn in fortunes that I hope will carry me through the next few weeks of the regular season.

Bad picks mixed with bad luck is not the combination you want to see, but a bit of fortune helped the Week 7 Picks return with a positive number.

We now move into Week 8 with more teams coming in and going on Bye Weeks, but the Divisions will begin to take serious shape in the lead up to Thanksgiving Day.

Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: An upset on Monday Night Football has pushed the Chicago Bears (3-4) back into contention in the open NFC North, but they are once again big dogs in Week 8 of the 2022 season as they travel for a second week in a row.

That is immediately a tough situation for any team to deal with and the Chicago Bears are going to be tested by the Dallas Cowboys (5-2) who are still in third place in the NFC East despite being one of eight teams that have won five games this season. Last weekend some late plays helped the Cowboys beat the Detroit Lions with a returning Dak Prescott at Quarter Back.

He should be better with another week of reps under his belt, but the Cowboys could be without Ezekiel Elliot and that would mean using Tony Pollard as a three down Running Back. There have been some improvements in the performance level of the Chicago Defensive Line in recent games, but I would still think the Dallas Offensive Line can open up some big holes for Pollard, who has the speed to hit any holes very quickly and run away from the line of scrimmage.

Dak Prescott is expected to give the Cowboys passing Offense a real boost and I do think he will be better in Week 8 than he was in Week 7.

There are some quality Receivers around him and Prescott should be well protected by his Dallas Offensive Line, perhaps even more so now Robert Quinn has been traded away from the Chicago Bears. Good work has been done by the Chicago Secondary in recent games, and that has to be respected, but I do think the Cowboys have enough balance on this side of the ball to put themselves in a position to move the chains.

Ultimately the biggest threat the Dallas Cowboys bring to the field is on the Defensive side of the ball and it was some huge plays from that unit that helped them pull away and crush the Detroit Lions.

Justin Fields did have a solid outing on Monday Night Football as the Bears surprisingly blew out the New England Patriots, but much of the Bears Offense is managed on the ground. They have put up some solid numbers on the ground with Fields capable of running the ball from the Quarter Back position and the Running Backs piling up the yards, but the Dallas Defensive Line have looked pretty strong up front of late and they will be looking to make the Quarter Back beat them with his arm.

It is simply not how the Chicago Bears will want to play this game and you do wonder what they will be able to do if they fall behind a couple of scores. Justin Fields is not really trusted to throw the ball consistently and the Offensive Line have struggled in pass protection, even with a mobile Quarter Back playing behind them.

After winning on Monday Night Football as the underdog, I think it will be tough for Chicago to back that up against a Dallas team who will be able to put a full effort in before heading into their Bye Week.

A couple of turnovers in favour of the Dallas Cowboys could help them pull clear in this one as they did in Week 7 and I do think the home team are capable of covering what is a very big line on paper.

Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions Pick: A returning Tua Tagovailoa at Quarter Back and a winning effort to snap a three game losing run is a positive for the Miami Dolphins (4-3), but they remain third in the AFC East. This may not be a Conference game and neither is the one in Week 9, but the Miami Dolphins will be looking to take some serious momentum into their Bye Week by winning both on the road.

First up is the trip to the Detroit Lions (1-5) who have the fewest wins in the NFC having made some late mistakes in their loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week.

Injuries have really held the Lions back, while this is not a great spot for them hosting a non-Conference opponent before having Divisional rivals the Green Bay Packers come to town. Head Coach Dan Campbell was an interim Head Coach for the Miami Dolphins and so that should bring extra motivation, although he is now on the hot seat in The Motor City and the big question is whether the players are still behind him.

Effort has not really been lacking, but losing key players has haunted Campbell and the Detroit Lions- he should have D'Andre Swift back at Running Back, but both Amon-Ra St Brown and TJ Hockenson are likely to be limited.

The return of D'Andre Swift will give the Lions a boost as they look to establish the run, but that is not going to be easy against this Miami Defensive Line. In recent weeks Miami have done well to contain the likes of Dalvin Cook and Joe Mixon so the feeling is that they clamp down up front and at least force Detroit to turn to the arm of Jared Goff from some tough third down positions.

Jared Goff may not be the long-term answer for the Lions at Quarter Back, but he has not played badly in his eighteen months with the team. Unfortunately there is not a deep choice of skill players to throw the ball to and that has not helped Jared Goff when it comes to finding the consistency he would want from Quarter Back.

An improving Miami Secondary has been able to make some big plays to help their team even in the absence of Tua Tagovailoa and I think it could be another tough afternoon for Goff and the Lions Offensive unit. They will be able to have some successes, but the Miami Dolphins can find the plays to just stall one or two drives and give their team every chance of winning this one on the road.

Scoring enough points to keep up with the Dolphins is likely going to be the challenge for Detroit as I am expecting an improved performance from Tua Tagovailoa and his skill players. The Quarter Back played well on Sunday Night Football in Week 7, but Tagovailoa admitted that he needs to find a way to produce Touchdowns rather than settling for Field Goals if they are going to achieve all Miami feel they can.

There haven't been many positives, if any at all, since Tagovailoa went down with an injury, but the Miami Dolphins have found a way to get their running attack moving in the right direction. Raheem Mostert has worked with Mike McDaniel before when both were in San Francisco and he has begun to benefit from the Offensive Line learning what they need to do from their first year Head Coach.

With a positive rushing Offense keeping the team in front of the chains, Tua Tagovailoa and the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle should be able to benefit with passing lanes opening up. A limited Detroit pass rush should mean Tagovailoa has plenty of time to throw to his Wide Receivers down the field and I do think the Dolphins will be better than they were Offensively last Sunday.

The Lions are a very good home to back when it comes to the spread, but I do think they could be distracted by the game with the Green Bay Packers coming up. A superior Miami Offensive balance can help the Dolphins too as they perhaps create a late turnover or two which helps them turn the screw and cover as the road favourite.

Miami are just 2-2 against the spread as the road favourite since the start of the 2021 season, but they look a much better team now and with Tua Tagovailoa back at Quarter Back, they can cover here.

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Over the last few years, the Minnesota Vikings (5-1) have been a team that had tended to lose close games, but that has been the complete opposite in 2022. The Vikings have won four in a row before heading into the Bye Week, but none of those have been by more than a one-score difference and the Minnesota Vikings have opened up a healthy lead at the top of the Division.

They are going to be well rested for this Week 8 game, but the Arizona Cardinals (3-4) will have enjoyed a 'mini-break' of their own having played on Thursday Night Football last time out. A win over the New Orleans Saints would have been a big boost, as would the performance of a returning DeAndre Hopkins.

The connection Hopkins has with Kyler Murray seems to make the Cardinals tick all the more efficiently and Kliff Kingsbury is going to hope both will be on the same page as they look for an important road win. Big games are coming up within the Division, but the Cardinals are looking for some momentum after the early season inconsistencies.

Minnesota have a strong record, but they do have a Secondary which can be attacked and I think Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins could be something we hear often in Minneapolis. Much will depend on the rushing part of the Offensive unit in order to keep the Cardinals in front of the chains and avoid having to allow routes develop down the field behind what has been shaky Offensive Line play.

Establishing the run is not going to be easy, but having a dual-threat at Quarter Back is a positive and one that should help Arizona have a little more success on the ground compared with recent opponents faced by the Vikings.

The Bye Week may actually have come at a good time for the Minnesota Vikings to work out how they struggled to earn much yardage in their last game against the Miami Dolphins. The Offensive unit produced just 234 yards on the day as they struggled in all aspects of their play, but the Vikings came away with a victory which should make it easier to have those discussions with the key players on this side of the ball.

Recent struggles to run the ball is a concern for the Vikings considering the talent they have at Running Back in Dalvin Cook, and it is unlikely that the Offensive Line is going to be able to open up too much for him against this Cardinals Defensive Line.

Pressure will then shift over onto Kirk Cousins at Quarter Back who is having a quietly good season, but without really dominating numbers. If Cousins is playing behind the chains, he will be under a bit of pressure from the Arizona pass rush, but the likes of Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson can win their battles outside so I do think Minnesota will have some success moving the ball.

However, I am not sure they can cover more than a Field Goal in what feels like a game where both teams will have their moments with the ball in their hands.

Three Divisional games in a row follow this one for Arizona, but they are 20-8-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine road games.

At the same time, Minnesota are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine when hosting a team with a losing record on the road, while the Vikings have not really come out as hard as they would like when playing out of their Bye Week. A returning DeAndre Hopkins can help continue the boost for the Arizona passing game and I think that will be enough for the road team to find a way to cover, even if they are not able to win the game outright.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The NFC Championship Game was clearly a huge moment and a game that will be hard to ignore, but the San Francisco 49ers (3-4) have dominated their NFC West rivals the Los Angeles Rams (3-3) in recent years in the regular season. The 49ers were comfortable home winners over the Rams earlier this month and that makes it seven regular season wins in a row for San Francisco.

A home thumping to the Kansas City Chiefs will have stung the 49ers Defensive unit, but they have matched up much better against Matthew Stafford and the Rams. Injuries have been an issue for the 49ers on this side of the ball, but I do think the Chiefs are a tougher team to scheme against and Kyle Shanahan will know exactly how his team need to approach this one as they look to bounce back.

The Rams are well rested and will have had time to devise a game-plan that can make them a lot more effective than when they scored just nine points in the road game at San Francisco, but Sean McVay has not always been at his best as a Head Coach when coming out of a Bye Week.

A major problem for the Rams is that they need to establish the run to get the rest of the Offensive schemes in sync, but that has been a problem for them all season. Things are unlikely to change in this Week 8 game as they prepare to face a stout San Francisco Defensive Line that is giving up an average below 100 yards per game on the ground.

It shifts the pressure onto Matthew Stafford, but the Quarter Back has not looked as comfortable with the skill players outside of Cooper Kuup.

Matthew Stafford may point to Offensive Line issues when trying to throw from third and long spots and that is likely to be the case again. The 49ers got some of their key players back to rush the passer last week and I do think San Francisco are going to be stalling drives by simply teeing off on Stafford when he drops back to pass and hopes to be given the time for routes to develop down the field.

The San Francisco 49ers will be looking to make life easier for their own Quarter Back as Jimmy Garoppolo continues to show that he is likely to take the team only so far. That is perhaps a little bit harsh on the Quarter Back as one who has played in the Super Bowl, but he is little more than a game-manager and Jimmy Garoppolo's first task will be to hand the ball off to Jeff Wilson and Christian McCaffrey in a bid to establish the run.

With the smoke and mirrors approach that Kyle Shanahan will look to employ, I do think the 49ers can at least move in front of the chains and I also think McCaffrey is going to be a big weapon as a pass catching Running Back that will take those short passes and look to break big gains.

This can only bode well for Jimmy Garoppolo, who had a decent game in the first match up with the Rams in early October, and I think he can have success in this one too. Deebo Samuel is a big absentee, but George Kittle looked healthier last week and Garoppolo should be given enough time to find Receivers down the field.

The spread is a small one, but I do like the 49ers to continue their dominance of the Los Angeles Rams.

The extra preparation time should help the Rams, but they have not really impressed this season and San Francisco have covered in their last four road games against this Divisional rival.

Home crowd has not been a factor in favour of the Rams who are 1-4 against the spread in their last five in this Stadium, while I do like the fact that the 49ers have gone 6-2 against the spread in their last eight following a straight up loss.

This feels like a good match up for the 49ers and I expect they continue their recent dominance of the series.

Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: You almost feel you have to back Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (3-4) as a double digit underdog in a primetime slot in Week 8 of the NFL season. Elite Quarter Backs tend to thrive as underdogs in general, but there is no doubt that the line will not have escaped the attention of Rodgers and his team-mates and pride is going to kick in.

It also does say a lot about the Buffalo Bills (5-1) who are coming out of their Bye Week after beating the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Week 6 and who remain top of the AFC East. Most will be expecting the PlayOffs to be travelling through Buffalo this season, although it is going to be a race to the finish line with a number of teams on five wins that will believe they can secure what could be the all-important Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

The Bills will have a huge amount of respect for Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen has spoken very highly of the Quarter Back on the other sideline. However, it cannot be ignored that the Green Bay Packers have simply not looked like the team many expected and that is on both sides of the ball with the Defensive unit not making enough stops.

One of the main problems for the Packers is that the Defensive Line cannot stop the run and I think the Buffalo Bills will be able to become the latest team to take advantage. Most will think of the powerful passing of Josh Allen, but the Quarter Back gets plenty of things moving on the ground too and the Bills have Devin Singletary also making effective plays on the ground.

Being unable to stop the run has meant teams have just pounded the rock at the Packers, but this Secondary is going to be tested harder than they have at any time this season. Green Bay have simply not faced an Offensive unit like the one the Bills bring to the table and I think this is another opportunity for Josh Allen to show the nation that he may be the top Quarter Back playing in the NFL.

I expect the Bills to find their Offensive groove with all the weapons they have and they should score plenty of points so the pressure is on the Packers and Aaron Rodgers to find the right formula to get their own Offense unstuck.

The Packers may feel the best approach to this one is leaving Allen and the Bills Offense to idle on the sidelines for as long as possible and that will mean pounding the rock, controlling the clock and using long, extended drives to frustrate the home crowd. In AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones, Green Bay do have two solid Running Backs, but the Offensive Line is not going to be able to bully the Bills up front and I think it will be difficult to expect the Packers to dominate the line of scrimmage.

In previous years you might have expected Aaron Rodgers to loosen up the running lanes with his arm, but a thumb issue coupled with inconsistent play out of his Receivers has proved hard to overcome. Losing Davante Adams has been a major blow and the Packers may struggle to break clear of some of the quality players the Bills will trot out in the Secondary, although injuries have seen them a little more vulnerable to the pass in recent games.

Some of that is down to the fact that teams have to throw to keep up with the Bills, and that means soft coverage from the Secondary and the numbers perhaps don't highlight how well they have been playing. The Packers will also have to try and protect Rodgers and give him time to make his throws if they are playing catch up, but containing this Buffalo pass rush may be beyond this team.

Sean McDermott usually has Buffalo well prepared out of their Bye Week and this is another chance to showcase their talents to a wider audience, which is a huge motivational tool for players. It should also keep them focused on Week 8 rather than the suddenly important AFC East game against the New York Jets which is on deck, and I think the Buffalo Offensive power sees them punish the Packers with another big home win.

I don't think it is easy to oppose Aaron Rodgers with this many points behind him, but the Bills have won their two home games by at least 34 points this season and they should have the scoring power to pull away.

MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 9.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 7: 5-3, + 3.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)

Week 6: 2-6, - 8.34 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.13% Yield)

Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)

Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2022- Vasyl Lomachenko vs Jamaine Ortiz (October 29th)

The fallout from the Conor Benn failed VADA tests, yes tests as in plural, continues to dominate the Boxing headlines in the United Kingdom to the point that you would be forgiven for failing to remember that Katie Taylor is headlining a card in London on Saturday.

I've talked about the Benn situation before, but I think they are now being poorly advised after deciding to rip up his British Boxing licence earlier this week.

Smoke and mirrors looks to be the approach to handling two flagged tests and Matchroom have plenty of fans who will lap up everything they say and treat it as the gospel truth. The idea may be to get them rallied behind the narrative and hope Benn can return in the second half of 2023 having 'cleared' his name without actually going through any real process to answer the questions about why he failed a test twice for the same substance?

Personally the PR to try and shift the blame onto the BBBC and suggest they 'had it in' for Benn is quite staggering and anyone with any sense of intelligence should be able to read through that without too much thought.

And hopefully one day we will hear someone from that side of the fence admit that there truly is no one to blame but either their own team, the fighter himself or a number of people that are not related to any Board outside of their own circle.

The return of Vasily Lomachenko will be the focus for the majority of Boxing fans this weekend and the Ukrainian will be looking for a win that could set up a potentially huge bout against Devin Haney for 2023.

He is getting older and he has been out of the ring for a long time, but beating Lomachenko still feels like the only way that Devin Haney will truly be given respect as the Undisputed Lightweight Champion and it would be surprising if that is not the direction Top Rank are looking to travel.

Other cards in the United Kingdom and the other side of the pond also have some fascinating fights scheduled for Saturday evening with DAZN and Sky Sports the channels over here covering the cards we want to see.

Vasyl Lomachenko vs Jamaine Ortiz

The last time we saw Vasyl Lomachenko in the ring was before the Russian invasion of the Ukraine which saw the veteran return home to join his compatriots in defending his country.

A big decision was made by Lomachenko to turn down the opportunity to fight George Kambosos Jr for the Undisputed Lightweight World Titles and that was one grasped by Devin Haney who is now king.

But now Lomachenko is back and the target is the clash with Devin Haney in early 2023.

He can ill-afford to overlook Jamaine Ortiz with the unbeaten American having nothing to lose and looking to take advantage of a 34 year old who has been out of the ring for ten months.

However, Oleksandr Usyk showed the mental strength of a fighter when returning from a long lay-off of his own and also a stint with his countrymen in the Ukraine to defeat Anthony Joshua pretty handily in their Heavyweight rematch in August. It certainly makes me confident that Vasyl Lomachenko will be 'right' going into the ring on Saturday night.

Jamaine Ortiz had a solid win over Jemel Herring in his last fight in May and he has been built up effectively by his promotion team, although this is a considerable step upwards.

Being called 'The Technician' is not really ideal with the unorthodox style of Vasyl Lomachenko likely to cause Ortiz all sorts of problems.

He is the naturally bigger man, but Jamaine Ortiz will likely be broken down by Lomachenko in his time in the ring and I can see the Ukrainian turning on the gas to try and end this one before needing the cards. You just hope he shows a bit more of a finishing instinct than he did against Richard Commey when Lomachenko was urging someone else to stop the fight rather than putting his combinations together to do that himself, but this time he wants to make a point that he is ready for the Undisputed World Title fight and I think the fight ends in the second half.

With a number of cards being run on the same night, there are a few fights of interest that may be worthy of being backed here.

The main event in the United Kingdom should see Katie Taylor win comfortably, but the chief support looks an intriguing scrap between Jordan Gill and Kiko Martinez.

There have been high hopes around the development of Gill and he is coming off a one punch hitter-quitter after looking all at sea and about to be stopped himself, but this is a massive step up. He is facing a veteran who might be towards the end of his career, but Martinez has been operating against World Title level opponents and he still carries the power to be dangerous.

Of course Jordan Gill could box rings around him and make this safe, but at some point I think he is going to be having to deal with the Spaniard's power and I think Martinez is a huge price to win this one by stoppage.

A lot of people are excited about William Zepeda, but I think he had a few flaws exposed last time out and now faces a solid test in Joseph Diaz.

Being unbeaten will always give a fighter confidence, but Jo Jo has only been beaten by Gary Russell Jr and Devin Haney and has shown plenty of toughness throughout his career.

The upset looks a big price, especially if we do get to the cards.

No, Jake Paul is not a serious Boxer right now, but I do think this is someone who is trying.

He is being seriously well managed and the promotion has been spot on for this fight with Anderson Silva with many feeling it is Paul's biggest test.

Something has not been quite right about the 47 year old though and I have a feeling he is ripe for the KO defeat to try and add legitimacy to Jake Paul as he continues to rake in some big numbers from casuals tuning in.

Good for him even if the PR isn't aimed to appeal to me, but the price for the KO is appealing enough for a small interest here and I will be happy enough if he returns the winning selection.

MY PICKS: Vasyl Lomachenko to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Kiko Martinez to Win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Joseph Diaz to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Jake Paul to Win by KO/TKO/DQ @ 3.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Boxing 2022: 32-61, + 6.41 Units (162 Units Staked, + 3.96% Yield)

College Football Week 9 Picks 2022 (October 29th)

Another week of College Football action is underway and I am struggling to find a bounce back effort for the Picks.

There are plenty of big games to be played on Saturday 29th October as we now turn the bend and begin to see the finish line as far as the regular season goes.

The Championship Games and College Football PlayOff Rankings could be given a serious jolt if a couple of the top schools are beaten in Week 9 and the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Tennessee Volunteers have to be careful (although you will see that I like both to cover).

Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Fans of Big Ten Football will have long been circling November 26th as the date when the Big Ten East Division would be decided and, for all intents and purposes, the game would also likely work out as a de facto Big Ten Championship Game.

As long as both teams are able to reach that November 26th date unbeaten, the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) could also be playing for a place in the College Football PlayOff final four.

This feels like the last significant obstacle between now and the end of November when the Buckeyes have to travel to State College to face the Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1), who will still harbour hopes of pushing their way into the Big Ten East conversation. A defeat to the Michigan Wolverines is the only one suffered by the Nittany Lions, but that means there is additional pressure to win this one and remain relevant in the Division, especially as Penn State will be favoured to win their remaining four regular season games.

James Franklin will be urging his team to avoid thinking about anything other than facing the Buckeyes and then working out where the chips will fall between now and the end of the season. They were well beaten by the Michigan Wolverines, albeit on the road, and that will present a challenge to the players to prove they are better than what they showed a couple of weeks ago.

The Nittany Lions did bounce back to throttle the Minnesota Golden Gophers, but benefited from playing a team who had to use their backup Quarter Back. As impressive as they were, Penn State fans have to acknowledge that fact and also accept that the Ohio State Buckeyes represent a much, much firmer test of their credentials.

Sean Clifford feels healthier at Quarter Back than he was for the defeat to the Wolverines, but the experienced player will also understand that he will need to be almost perfect if his team are to earn the home upset. While Clifford has been well protected in recent games by the Offensive Line, the pressure is on his arm as that Line has been better in pass protection than run blocking and now faces a very stout Ohio State Defensive Line.

It is unlikely that Penn State will have a lot of joy on the ground and Sean Clifford is going to be throwing into a Secondary that has shown off the experience they've built up with the improvements they have made throughout the season.

The Buckeyes pass rush should make the Quarter Back throw quicker than he would like too and I do think Penn State could struggle to move the chains with any consistency, even at home.

Struggles to move the ball impacts the Defensive unit in a couple of ways too- they are under pressure to stand up and make stops of their own, but also do not get the opportunity to rest for as long as they would want between drives. I can certainly see the Buckeyes beginning to dominate in the second half with an Offensive unit that has looked in pretty good sync, even if they were not happy with their start last week against the Iowa Hawkeyes having settled for too many Field Goals.

CJ Stroud is the player that will make the headlines at Quarter Back, but the Buckeyes Offensive Line have played up to the level of pre-season expectations and should be able to dominate at the line of scrimmage. Where the Buckeyes Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run, the Penn State Defensive Line has struggled in recent games and are allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

You cannot really make a case for them changing those kinds of numbers when they are going to be concerned about the ability of the Buckeyes Quarter Back in throwing the ball and I expect the balance on the Offensive side of the ball to prove to be a key for Ohio State.

Games between these rivals tend to be close so it would be ignorant to think this is going to be a one-sided blowout, but I do think the spread has come down to an acceptable level for Buckeyes backers. The Defensive unit should be able to limit the Penn State output and I think Ohio State showed last week against the Hawkeyes that they are in rhythm and can pile up the points against any team they face.

The underdog has been the team to back in the recent series between Ohio State and Penn State, but the Buckeyes did cover in State College as the favourite in 2020. Ohio State have also won six of their last seven on the road at Penn State and I think they will be too hot Offensively for their rivals as all eyes continue to shift to the big game coming up in Columbus at the end of November.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Auburn Tigers Pick: It is all relative, but the Auburn Tigers (3-4) and Arkansas Razorbacks (4-3) will meet in Week 9 in the midst of what have been underwhelming seasons. Both teams have been struggling in the SEC and both have 1-3 records, which places more significance on this game as the Tigers and Razorbacks hope to become Bowl eligible again.

I think both are capable of actually reaching the six wins they need, but the Razorbacks may have been expecting a lot more in Sam Pittman's third season as Head Coach. Arkansas had nine wins last season and they will need to win at least five of a potential six games remaining to match that total as they come out of their Bye Week.

They did snap a three game losing run when going into that Bye and Pittman had made it clear that his team were struggling with injuries and needed the break to simply reset and get back to basics. The Head Coach sounded much more positive in the build up to this game, especially as they are facing an Auburn Tigers team that have lost three games in a row to drop below 0.500 for the season.

Bo Nix was the Quarter Back at Auburn for a long time and underwhelmed and so it would be stinging a bit more in this part of Alabama to see him performing at a high level for the Oregon Ducks. While their former Quarter Back has been producing, Auburn have not found the same consistency from their own signal caller Robby Ashford, who ironically transferred into Auburn from Oregon.

At least this week Robby Ashford is facing a banged up Secondary that has allowed a lot of big plays throughout the season. That should bode well for the Quarter Back who has just four Touchdown passes to go with five Interceptions, while Ashford should also provide plenty of threat with his legs.

The Tigers Offensive Line have found their strength up front to establish the run and Auburn's game-plan may begin with pounding the rock to make the passing lanes that much easier to negotiate for their Quarter Back. Clamping down on the run has become a particularly challenging effort for the Arkansas Razorbacks in recent games as injuries have begun to wear them down and I fully expect Auburn to be able to move the ball with some consistency.

The same can very much be said for the Arkansas Razorbacks when they have the ball.

Arkansas want to establish the run with their own dual-threat Quarter Back KJ Jefferson and facing one of the most porous Defensive Lines in the nation, let alone the SEC, should be music to the ears of Kendall Briles, the Offensive Co-Ordinator. I have little doubt that the Razorbacks will be able to run the ball over and over again, but the key difference between the two teams may be the play of the Secondary.

Where the Razorbacks Secondary have struggled, Auburn's Secondary have actually played pretty well even if some of that is down to the fact that they almost cannot stop the run. If they can get the Arkansas Offensive unit into a position where they have to throw, the Tigers may feel they can make one or two stops or force Field Goals rather than giving up Touchdowns and that may be enough for the home team to keep this one close.

Robby Ashford is not easy to trust when it comes to stepping back and throwing the ball, but there are holes in the Arkansas Secondary that can be exploited and it is my main reason for believing this will be a close game that is decided by the final possession.

With that in mind, getting more than a Field Goal worth of points looks very appealing for an Auburn team who have an 11-8 record against the spread when given points as the home underdog over the last several years.

The Razorbacks are out of a Bye Week, but they have a horrible record as the road favourite in recent years and I do think that Defensive unit is hard to trust to avoid a backdoor cover for Auburn at the very worst.

The Tigers have a dominant recent record against Arkansas and Auburn are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games out of a Bye Week of their own. Auburn are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these SEC West rivals and I will take the points on offer with the home team to at least keep this one competitive, even if the Razorbacks earn the victory.

Missouri Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: It is hard to make headlines in the SEC when teams around are unbeaten and others have one loss with real ambitions of reaching the College Football PlayOff. However, you have to give Shane Beamer a lot of credit for the job he is doing in his second season with the South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2) who are well on the way to matching the seven wins they recorded in his first season.

The Head Coach may actually be disappointed if the Gamecocks are not able to surpass those seven wins from last season, but the key is to keep the team focused and make sure they are not dropping games they should be winning. The final three games for South Carolina will see them face the Florida Gators before currently unbeaten Tennessee Volunteers and Clemson Tigers so the next two weeks feel pivotal for the Gamecocks to ensure they are Bowl eligible again.

First up is Homecoming against the Missouri Tigers (3-4) who have lost three of their four Conference games. They had covered in the three losses to Auburn, Georgia and Florida, which shows how effective Missouri can be, but avoiding back to back losing seasons under Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz is going to be far from easy without an upset win or two.

A problem for the Tigers is whether they are going to be able to score enough points to earn those upsets, especially with signs of wear and tear building on the Defensive side of the ball. Despite the win over Vanderbilt to end their SEC losing run, Drinkwitz made it clear that his team need to clear up a lot of their Offensive plans if they are going to have more successes this season.

The Tigers have struggled to run the ball with any consistency and the feeling is that they are not going to get a lot of change out of the South Carolina Defensive Line. The Coaches have been working on the Offensive Line to sort out schemes when it comes to run blocking, but it is unlikely that the Tigers will be able to get the better of a Gamecocks team that have clamped down on the run up front.

Inexperienced Brady Cook has been tasked with having to do a lot more at Quarter Back than he is perhaps comfortable with and it does not help that there is Offensive Line issues when it comes to the pass protection as well as the run blocking. With the team likely to be in third and long spots during this game, Cook could feel the heat from the South Carolina pass rush and that may lead to mistakes against a Gamecocks Secondary that has allowed just 192 passing yards on average through the season.

Pressure being generated up front also leads to passes being thrown erratically and Brady Cook has been guilty of Interceptions, while the Gamecocks have feasted on being able to turn the ball over.

This certainly feels like the Gamecocks have the edge when the Missouri Tigers have the ball, but the strength of the Tigers may be the Defensive unit who has helped keep them competitive in games, even those that have seen them beaten. For much of the season the Tigers have been clamping down on the run, but the concern in recent games is that there have been some signs of weakening.

Overall the Missouri Tigers have allowed 128 yards per game on the ground at 3.8 yards per carry, but those have turned into 152 yards and 4.8 yards per carry in their last three games. With an improving South Carolina Offensive Line opening up more holes up front, the Gamecocks may feel they can get in front of the chains and keep things more comfortable for Spencer Rattler at Quarter Back.

He might have been a former Heisman trophy favourite, but Spencer Rattler has struggled to really reach those heights in the last eighteen months. At least with a stronger rushing attack, Rattler is not under the pressure to deliver with his arm, while it may also mean not pushing too much and throwing the Interceptions which have blighted his game.

Spencer Rattler should be under little pressure when he does step back to throw and he can manage this game for the Gamecocks and help the team extend their winning run to five games.

I think the Gamecocks will be able to cover too as they have improved to 4-2 against the spread as the home favourite, while the Missouri Tigers are just 5-14 against the spread in their last nineteen road games.

The performances in covering as the underdog in the three SEC Conference games lost this season is unsettling when opposing Missouri, but the favourite and the home team both have 5-2 record against the spread in the last seven in the series between the Tigers and the Gamecocks and I think that will be extended by South Carolina.

Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: It has been a very long time since there has been this kind of buzz around the Tennessee Volunteers (7-0) who have a huge game on deck against the Georgia Bulldogs. The winner of that one will likely be representing the SEC East in the Championship Game, but the Volunteers would be making a massive mistake if they were to overlook the Kentucky Wildcats (5-2) who have had two weeks to prepare for this game.

You have to expect the Tennessee players to be largely grounded having not become used to the successes they have had so far this season. While others more accustomed to winning Conference Championships and reaching the College Football PlayOff could be thinking ahead, knowing they have this game in hand, the Tennessee Volunteers have to play as hard as possible in every game to reach the kind of standards that the likes of Georgia, LSU and Alabama have produced out of the SEC in recent years.

The Volunteers should be largely ready to go having had an 'easy' game on the schedule in Week 8, but they must respect the Wildcats who snapped a two game losing run by beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 7. Mark Stoops' team can still have a big impact in the Division with a game against the Georgia Bulldogs to come before the end of the regular season, while the Wildcats will be pushing to try and match the ten wins earned in 2021.

Kentucky will need an upset to reach that mark with five regular season games and a potential Bowl Game to be played, but this is a team who play hard and who will fight for every yard on the field.

Injuries have not helped the Wildcats during their run of two losses in three games, but the Bye Week will have given them time to contain those. They may still be short-handed, while much of the Wildcats success on the Offensive side of the ball has come down to being able to establish the run.

However, that is going to be far from an easy challenge against the Tennessee Defensive Line who have been stout against the run and followed that up by producing a very good pass rush. Will Levis is going to start at Quarter Back, which is obviously key for Kentucky, and they may feel he can still have a solid game against the Tennessee Secondary which has been hurt by the pass throughout the season.

Doing it over and over from third and long is the challenge though and Levis will have to make sure he is able to look after the ball in order to avoid giving this powerful Tennessee Offensive unit extra possessions.

Kentucky may be able to score, but you do have to feel that the Volunteers are going to have enough explosive plays to win the game. The big question is whether they can put up the numbers to cover the spread against the Wildcats Defense, which has been a strength of the Mark Stoops led team.

A problem for Kentucky is that their Defensive Line has shown signs of being worn down and the only real hope is that the Bye Week has given them time to reset. Hendon Hooker at Quarter Back is obviously the stand out name on the Tennessee roster, but he is well backed by the skill players around him, while the Offensive Line has opened some big holes up front for the rushing attack and that could see Tennessee find the balance they need.

He looks like he will be going as one of the highest Drafted Quarter Backs, but Hendon Hooker will be tested by this Kentucky Secondary. While the Wildcats don't generate a lot of pressure and Hooker is well protected, the Quarter Back will know that Kentucky play very strong coverage and the running game is key to make sure the Volunteers are playing in front of the chains.

I do think that is likely going to be the outcome of the game and it should see the Volunteers make some late plays that sees them push past the line set for the game. Will Levis can have success for the Wildcats, but it is a tougher challenge when obviously looking to pass and that could see Kentucky drives falter if they begin to chase this game and have to abandon the run.

The underdog and road team in this series has been very good at the window in returning winners, while I never want to underestimate this Kentucky team who are very well Coached. However, they are 7-10 against the spread coming out of a Bye Week and Tennessee should be motivated in securing style points knowing they could be pivotal to earning a place in the College Football PlayOff even with a single loss on the board.

Of course the Week 10 game is a huge distraction, but Josh Heupel is 15-10 against the spread as a home favourite over the last four and a half seasons and I think he will have kept his Tennessee team grounded. With the Offensive firepower at their disposal, I believe Tennessee will score enough points to win and cover against this SEC East rival.

MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Auburn Tigers + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Syracuse Orange - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 11 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 8: 3-5, - 2.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.88% Yield)

Week 7: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)

Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)

College Football Week 8 Picks 2022 (October 22nd)

It has been a tough season for the College Football Picks and there has been some frustration over the last couple of weeks.

There is still time to get things going in a positive direction, but a winning Week 8 is important.

Cincinnati Bearcats @ SMU Mustangs Pick: The American Athletic Conference has done away with Divisions for a couple of seasons, but that did not prevent them from finally sending a team to the College Football PlayOff last season. It is almost impossible to see a situation in which the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1) will have another shot at making the PlayOff in 2022 having lost to the Arkansas Razorbacks in Week 1, but they have won five in a row since then and Head Coach Luke Fickell will know his first and main ambition of any season is winning the Conference Championship Game.

This is the third Conference Game of the season for the Bearcats who are playing after a Bye Week, but they have to remain focused and not think too far ahead to the important game against the UCF Knights coming up in Week 9.

After watching the SMU Mustangs (3-3) beat the Navy Midshipmen to move back to 1-1 in the Conference, I do think the Bearcats will be focused enough to make sure their winning run continues.

The Mustangs had lost three in a row before the win over Navy, but they have been piling up plenty of Offensive numbers even in those defeats. They were blown out by the UCF Knights largely because they lost the turnover battle, but the SMU Mustangs are dangerous and they will be highly motivated to end their three game losing run to the Bearcats.

Tanner Mordecai is the key for the Mustangs and the Quarter Back has played well this season having already produced more than 2000 passing yards, although he failed to record a Touchdown pass against the UCF Knights and was guilty of throwing an Interception. The Quarter Back was much better against the Navy Midshipmen, but it is going to be an issue for SMU if they are not able to find balance with their play-calling when they have the ball in their own hands.

Running the ball has been very difficult against the Cincinnati Bearcats though and so it does feel like Tanner Mordecai is going to have throw from third and long situations. I expect him to have some success, but this Cincinnati Secondary is playing well and that has been helped by the incredibly strong pass rush the American Athletic defending Champions have been able to generate up front.

Finding an Offensive balance looks much more likely to be achieved by the Bearcats who have used the Bye Week to help Ben Bryant return safely after suffering a concussion. The Quarter Back has taken over from Desmond Ridder this season and he has played well for Cincinnati having returned to the team having spent a year playing with the Eastern Michigan Eagles.

Unlike Tanner Mordecai, Ben Bryant will not feel largely responsible for keeping the chains moving because he is backed up by a strong running game that should be able to get the better of the SMU Defensive Line. Charles McClelland should be able to pick up from where left off before the Bye Week and keeping the Bearcats in third and manageable means the entire play-book remains open for Ben Bryant.

It also eases the pass rush when the run is an option and I do think that will give Ben Bryant enough time to hit the Mustangs in the Secondary and put the Cincinnati Bearcats in a strong position to win and cover on the road.

Interceptions have been an issue for the Bearcats when they take to the air, but the same has been holding back the Mustangs and the difference between the two teams could be the play of the Secondaries. It is an area where the Bearcats look to have the edge, while being able to lean on the ground attack should give them enough balance to win this one ahead of the big game against the UCF Knights.

The Bearcats have not always been the best road favourite to back, but this number looks just short enough to be able to back them here.

Both teams have some negative trends at the window to overcome, but the Cincinnati Bearcats are 4-1 against the spread in the last five between these teams and can extend that.

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Players and Coaches have long memories in College Football and the NFL, although the turnover in the College game means there are unlikely to be anyone left that was on the roster in 2017 when these two teams last met. In 2017, the Iowa Hawkeyes (3-3) didn't just upset the Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0) at home, but they absolutely crushed them as an Unranked team and the game has been the talk of the town as they prepare to face each other in Week 8.

That game was won by the Iowa Hawkeyes at home, and they had been 18 point underdogs on the day, but it is a completely different challenge for them heading to Columbus. For starters the Buckeyes were not an undefeated team in 2017, while, secondly, the Hawkeyes have looked completely out of sync Offensively and may struggle to score enough points to cover with a much bigger start on the handicap.

Iowa are just 1-2 in the Big Ten West this season and they are averaging just 14.7 points per game, which is a surprise when you think they have seven starters back from the team that averaged 23.4 points per game last season.

Moving the ball against the Buckeyes Defensive unit is going to be a huge challenge for the Hawkeyes who are struggling to run the ball or throw the ball with any consistency. They did give the Michigan Wolverines something to think about when facing them at home earlier this season, but that was largely down to a strong Defensive performance and I think the Hawkeyes are going to be reliant on that unit to keep them in this one at Ohio Stadium.

Ultimately I don't think anyone thinks the Hawkeyes are going to suddenly burst into life Offensively even with the Bye Week to try and sort things out.

However, there is a feeling that the Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive unit can at least give the Ohio State Buckeyes the most to think about since they scored 'only' 21 points in their Week 1 win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Ohio State have scored at least 45 points in each of their next five wins, but the Hawkeyes have to have confidence in their Defensive unit to at least try and contain things.

They are facing a powerful Ohio State Offensive unit who have been led by Quarter Back CJ Stroud, but who have a huge amount of skill players ready to make the difference for them. The Buckeyes are well balanced on this side of the ball as they are capable of throwing the ball as well as running it and that presents a challenge to the Hawkeyes.

Iowa's Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run and they may feel they can get CJ Stroud throwing out of third and long on occasion, although the Quarter Back is well protected by his Offensive Line and likely to be throwing from a clean pocket. Even with that in mind, Stroud will be facing a Hawkeyes Secondary that have only allowed 154 passing yards per game this season and who have ball-hawking players that can make a big play or two to get the ball back to their Offensive unit.

Stopping the Buckeyes is clearly not going to happen, but the key to the outcome of this game for the Hawkeyes, especially against the spread, is whether they can make enough stops. I have to assume Iowa will struggle to score more than 14 points, but they can cover by keeping the Buckeyes below 44 points in that case and I think that is possible for this Defense.

Of course I've mentioned the fact that the Buckeyes have scored at least 45 points in five straight wins, but the Fighting Irish held them 21 points and this Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive unit is arguably the best the Ohio State Buckeyes would have faced this season. The home team are going to want to run up the score after Head Coach Ryan Day admitted the memories of 2017 still bother him, but the Hawkeyes have usually been well prepared on a rest and they can keep this game much more competitive than the layers believe it will be.

There is much to admire about the Buckeyes who will be targeting a spot in the College Football PlayOff, but the Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven road games when playing a team with a winning home record and I think they can show enough pride to avoid the massive blowout.

Mississippi Rebels @ LSU Tigers Pick: The SEC was shaken up considerably last week when the Tennessee Volunteers ended a sixteen year wait to beat the Alabama Crimson Tide. Nick Saban had not been beaten as Head Coach of the Crimson Tide against Tennessee, but that loss has opened things up for the other schools in the SEC West Division as well as the Conference as a whole.

The Mississippi Rebels (7-0) and LSU Tigers (5-2) are most likely to take advantage with the former being 3-0 in Conference play and the latter being 3-1. Both of those teams will be facing the Crimson Tide next month, but they can build some momentum by winning what is the biggest game of the week in the SEC.

The feeling is that we are about to learn all we need to know about the Rebels who have been good enough to take advantage of what can only be described as a kind schedule. The Week 7 win over the Auburn Tigers was impressive, but the Rebels have not been tested nearly as hard as the LSU Tigers who have also faced Auburn, but additionally Tennessee and the Florida Gators.

An early defeat to the Florida State Seminoles likely ends LSU's real chances of making the College Football PlayOff barring them running the table and other Conference Champions slipping up. It is a defeat that has not aged well, while Head Coach Brian Kelly was very disappointed in the effort and execution during the home blow out at the hands of the Volunteers two weeks ago.

His Tigers team struggled in all aspects of their Football that day, but looked much more at it when beating the Florida Gators last time out. That will be encouraging, although LSU have to find a way to show better balance Offensively if they are going to keep up with the Rebels in what could easily be a track meet in Baton Rouge.

Armoni Goodwin could return for LSU to try and bolster their rushing attack, but the Tigers Offensive Line have not been the most convincing whether it comes to run blocking or pass protection. They may have an opportunity to establish the run against the Mississippi Defensive Line, which has been guilty of allowing some big plays on the ground, but Brian Kelly will be the first to admit his team need more consistency.

If they cannot find that on the ground, the pressure will be on Quarter Back Jayden Daniels who has responded with 10 Touchdown passes and a single Interception this season. The dual-threat Daniels offers makes him a challenge to all Defenses that he faces, but the Rebels will feel they can crash the pocket with the pressure they have been able to generate whenever the Tigers are in third and long spots and that could see Mississippi just stall a few drives.

The Rebels look to have the superior balance of the two teams from the Offensive point of view and I do think Lane Kiffin's team will be able to run the ball to open up the passing lanes. In recent games, the Rebels Offensive Line have piled up the yards on the ground and it won't have been lost on them the amount of yards that Tennessee churned out on the ground in their win in this Stadium.

With the team likely to be moving the chains into third and manageable on the ground, Jaxson Dart should have time to either look to convert those with his legs or his arm from the Quarter Back position. Interceptions have been an issue for Dart this season, but he should have time in the pocket to try and exploit the holes that have opened up in the LSU Secondary in Conference play.

The LSU Tigers have dominated the recent head to head between these SEC West rivals and they are at home, but I do think the Mississippi Rebels match up very well with them. Playing in Baton Rouge has been hard work for the Rebels in recent visits, but I do think they are coming into this one with more confidence than usual and I do think the ground attack gives them the edge in a game that could come down to which of the teams have the ball last.

Mississippi have not been at their best as the road underdog in Lane Kiffin's two and a half years as Head Coach, but I can't help think that the Rebels should have been favoured like the Tennessee Volunteers were here. They may not be as good as Tennessee, but I think the balance on the Offensive side of the ball proves to be the key to the outcome and I will look for the the Rebels remain unbeaten.

Kansas State Wildcats @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: After rallying from a big deficit and finally overcoming the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Overtime, the TCU Horned Frogs (6-0) are the last remaining unbeaten team in the Big 12 Conference. They are 3-0 within Conference play after that victory and they hold wins over both the Cowboys and the Oklahoma Sooners, although big tests remain beginning with this one at home.

The big question is how much the Overtime win in Week 7 has taken out of the TCU Horned Frogs, although they will be given a significant boost from the home crowd. They will need all of that against the Kansas State Wildcats (5-1) who are also 3-0 within the Big 12 and who had had a Bye Week to just rest a few tired legs and prepare for this hugely important Conference Game.

The Wildcats have already shown they can be road warriors with wins at the Oklahoma Sooners and Iowa State Cyclones, but their fate will be determined over the next four weeks. Following this game in Fort Worth, the Kansas State Wildcats have to face the Oklahoma State Cowboys, Texas Longhorns and Baylor Bears meaning they are facing four opponents with a combined 19-6 record.

Kansas State had actually been outgained by both Oklahoma and Texas Tech in terms of yardage before the narrow win over the Cyclones in Week 6 and that has to be a slight concern. Adrian Martinez has rejuvenated his College career with the Wildcats and the Quarter Back is going to be very important again, but it may be a more difficult test than it might have been if Kansas State are unable to move the ball on the ground as efficiently as they would like.

Keeping Adrian Martinez in third and manageable will allow the Quarter Back to attack the Secondary and also cool down an improving TCU pass rush, but the Horned Frogs Defensive Line have found a way to clamp down on the run up front. That will be key to the last unbeaten team in the Big 12 as they look to make the Wildcats one-dimensional and begin to stall drives by forcing Punts and Field Goals.

The Quarter Back is a dual-threat in this one and so the Horned Frogs will have to keep tabs on Adrian Martinez, but the home team will feel they can do enough to at least get the ball back in the hands of what has been a powerful Offensive unit.

Much like his opposite number, Max Duggan has felt rejuvenated at Quarter Back this season, one in which he started behind Chandler Morris. An injury meant an early change and Max Duggan has not looked back with efficiency throwing the ball leading to 16 Touchdown passes and a single Interception.

Max Duggan can move with his legs too, but he will be confident handing the ball to Kendre Miller and allowing the Running Back to make plays behind what has been a TCU Offensive Line matching pre-season expectations to be one of the best in the Conference. Some may say they have actually overachieved and been amongst the very best Offensive Lines in College Football when it comes to establishing the run and I do think the Wildcats are going to find it very difficult to stop the Horned Frogs from getting into third and manageable spots through this game.

That should only make things more comfortable for Max Duggan at Quarter Back and holes could open up considering the Wildcats have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game in their three Conference games. I would expect Duggan to have a very strong game and the Horned Frogs may be able to back up their big win last week by seeing off the team right below them in the Big 12 standings.

TCU do not have a good record at the window nor against the Kansas State Wildcats in recent seasons, but I think this Horned Frogs team is as good as there has been in Forth Worth over the last few years. They easily look the best team fielded since the Horned Frogs won eleven games in 2017 and I believe they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to set the platform for success.

They have not been the best Conference favourite to back in recent times, and they have failed to cover in that spot in both situations this season, but I do think the TCU Horned Frogs can use the home crowd to push clear of the Kansas State Wildcats in the top Big 12 Conference Game set to be played in Week 8 of the 2022 season.

MY PICKS: Cincinnati Bearcats - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Iowa Hawkeyes + 30 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Houston Cougars - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

West Virginia Mountaineers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Mississippi Rebels + 1 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Stanford Cardinal - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

TCU Horned Frogs - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 7: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)

Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)

NFL Week 7 Picks 2022 (October 20-24)

The last couple of weeks have been very difficult to absorb and it stings all the more when a backdoor cover just kicks you in the teeth while you are down.

I will update this thread with the totals before the Sunday NFL games in Week 7, but the Thursday Night Football pick can be read below with more to follow in the next two days.

New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: There have been upset after upset through the first six weeks of the NFL season and just a quick look through the Divisions shows how tight the majority of them are.

In saying that, this is an important Thursday Night Football game for two teams who have been underachieving through the first third of the 2022 season. Both the New Orleans Saints (2-4) and Arizona Cardinals (2-4) are two games below 0.500, but they are fortunate to be playing in Divisions where the leaders are only at 3-3.

That does mean an opportunity to turn things around is not yet beyond these teams, but there is going to feel like a massive difference between being 3-4 and 2-5 at the end of Week 7.

Injuries have really hurt both teams and key players are likely to be missing for both on Thursday Night Football when you consider the short week to get those out of action back on the playing field. The New Orleans Saints could be without their starting Quarter Back and two of their top three Receiving options, while they are also banged up in the Secondary, while the Arizona Cardinals lost Marquise Brown in Week 6.

One positive for the Cardinals is that DeAndre Hopkins is back, although the short week means limited time back in practice for the Wide Receiver having served his suspension. No one should doubt how important Hopkins has been to the Arizona Offensive unit, while the addition of Robbie Anderson in a trade from the Carolina Panthers is another boost, even if a short-term one.

The other positive for the Cardinals is that they may not need much of a boost on the Offensive side of the ball if the Defensive unit continues to play to the level they have been- they gave up 44 points to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1, but Arizona have held their last five opponents to 23 points or fewer and are now playing a New Orleans Saints team that are likely without Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry.

Christian Olave is expected to suit up after missing the loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 6, while Andy Dalton is a decent enough backup at Quarter Back. The big weapon for the New Orleans Saints is likely to be Alvin Kamara, although he may be more of a threat as a pass catcher out of the backfield rather than on the ground considering how well the Cardinals have begun to clamp down on the run.

Last Sunday, Kenneth Walker III broke a big run against the Cardinals Defensive Line and Geno Smith proved to be a threat with his legs, but Arizona will feel they largely contained the Running Back and cannot expect Andy Dalton to have the same running threat as Smith.

The Arizona Secondary is playing pretty well too as they have gotten some solid pass rush pressure in recent games and I do think the absence of key Receivers will hold New Orleans back. The Saints may move the chains on some drives, but I do like the way the Cardinals could match up with them on this side of the ball and they can limit the scoring as they have done in recent games.

Once again the question will be on Kyler Murray and the Arizona Offense which has sputtered all season and averaged just 19 points per game. I do think the return of DeAndre Hopkins will certainly help, while the Saints Defensive Line have struggled to stop the run in recent games and that could mean another big game on the ground for Murray at Quarter Back.

The Cardinals are banged up at Running Back, but I do think they could establish a threat on the ground, especially with the Saints perhaps a little more way about the passing options that Kyler Murray has in this game. It is important to be able to at least offer a threat on the ground so the New Orleans pass rush can be eased a touch, while Murray should have considerable success throwing against this vulnerable Secondary as long as the team are in front of the chains.

This is the first meeting between the teams since New Orleans blew out Arizona in 2019, but I do think the Cardinals can win this time around, even if they are incredibly difficult to trust.

The main reason for that is that the Cardinals have lost an incredible eight home games in a row since opening the 2021 season 7-0 overall.

However, I do think this looks a good match up for Arizona and the short week cannot help the banged up New Orleans Saints. Thursday Night Football has not been good to the Saints when playing a non-Division opponent and they are 0-6 against the spread in the last six in that situation, and I do think the Cardinals are playing better than their results with the return of DeAndre Hopkins and arrival of Robbie Anderson expected to spark an Offense that may only need 20-24 points to win and cover.

It won't be pretty at times, but Arizona can snap their miserable run at State Farm Stadium and get back in amongst the top of the NFC West by joining their three rivals with three wins in the 2022 season.

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: After using their backup Quarter Back to win four games in a row, the Dallas Cowboys (4-2) are likely to have Dak Prescott back in the line up in Week 7 as they look to bounce back from the defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite the strong record, the Cowboys were dropped into third place in the suddenly super-competitive NFC East behind the aforementioned unbeaten Eagles and the 5-1 New York Giants.

Two games at home against struggling NFC North teams should help the Cowboys get back on track and it should also mean that not too much is expected from Dak Prescott on his return to the team.

First up for the Cowboys is hosting the Detroit Lions (1-4) who were blown out in Week 5 before entering an early Bye Week. Head Coach Dan Campbell will have been pleased with the break as it gives his team a chance to try and get some players back from injury, although the Lions are still expected to be short-handed in areas across their units.

It is going to be a challenge for Jared Goff and the Lions Offensive unit who failed to score a single point in the blowout loss to the New England Patriots in Week 5. This week they are facing a Dallas Defensive unit that have played really well all season, and who may have a bit more time for recovery between drives assuming the Dallas Offense will be able to extend drives now they are expected to have more balance with their play-calling having replaced Cooper Rush with Prescott.

The Lions will try and establish the run to put the Offense in a strong position, but this Dallas Defensive Line have been very strong up front and they will look to clamp down on the rushing attack. It has been the key to unleashing a very strong pass rush, while the Dallas Secondary will believe they are capable of making the big plays to stall the Lions, even if Detroit will be much better than they were in their defeat to the New England Patriots.

Jared Goff will make some plays, but he has to be careful with the ball throwing against a Dallas Secondary that have found Interceptions as the pass rush has gotten home.

Running the ball is going to be the first ambition of the Dallas Cowboys too and I do think they are going to have more success than the Lions in this regard.

While the Offensive Line have been hit with injuries that have made things a bit more difficult, the Cowboys have two quality Running Backs and teams may not be able to load the box as much as they would do if Cooper Rush was behind Center. That should open things up a little more for both Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard, while the Detroit Defensive Line have not been able to slow down the rush prior to the Bye Week.

Protection should not be an issue for Dak Prescott with the team likely to be in front of the chains, but the big question for the Quarter Back is going to be how well his thumb has healed. As long as he is close to 100%, I do think Prescott will find holes to exploit in the Lions Secondary and the whole Dallas passing game should be much better.

I can understand the thinking in backing the Lions, who are well Coached under Dan Campbell and who would have irritated with the efforts in the defeat to the Patriots, while it is never easy for a returning Quarter Back to be at his best after a significant layoff.

However, I do think the Dallas Defensive unit can make the difference, while Prescott may not have to do too much to keep the chains moving. He is a big upgrade on Cooper Rush and I think that will open up the running lanes for the home team, which can set them on their way to a win by a Touchdown.

The Lions do have a very strong 9-1 record against the spread when playing with time to prepare and the Dallas Cowboys are not always the best home favourite to back. However, they did cover in that spot against the Washington Commanders this season and I do think the Dallas Cowboys will be very focused in trying to secure back to back home wins before the Bye Week as they try and keep pace in a surprisingly good Division.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Injuries are always the biggest issues for NFL teams to overcome in the long regular season and those have certainly played their part in the Miami Dolphins (3-3) three game losing run. After an incredibly positive start to the season, Tua Tagovailoa took a huge hit early in the Thursday Night Football game at the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4 and the Dolphins have not been able to win a game in his absence.

Some of the players will be wondering how that remained the case after dominating the Minnesota Vikings at home in Week 6, but they do have their starting Quarter Back in the line up for this Sunday Night Football game and I think that is a huge boost for the Dolphins.

The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6 to remain in touch in the AFC North, but it has been a difficult season for Mike Tomlin and his men. The Head Coach will struggle to avoid his first losing season, especially as the Steelers are banged up on the Defensive unit and relying on a rookie at Quarter Back to spark their year.

Kenny Pickett has not performed badly and he has some seriously good Receiving weapons, but the last Quarter Back class coming out of the Draft has not really been one that has many thinking franchise Quarter Back. The Steelers Quarter Back was the first to be selected in the position, but the expectations are being managed in Pittsburgh and Pickett is seen as a complete work in progress.

There is still a chance that Mitchell Trubisky will have to suit up for the Steelers with Kenny Pickett going through the concussion protocol, but the latter is trending in the right direction. Regardless, it is going to be difficult for the Steelers to really believe they are going to find a consistent Offensive game plan and that is mainly down to the fact that they are struggling to run the ball, and thus placing a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back to get things moving.

The Dolphins Defensive Line have actually played the run pretty well in recent games and they are generating a bit more of a pass rush so the feeling is that they can get into the Steelers on this side of the ball. That combination up front has also seen the Secondary improve their numbers in recent games and I do think Miami are ready to bounce back on primetime this week.

Having Tua Tagovailoa back is a boost, although Teddy Bridgewater came in and played well last week after Miami opened the loss to the Minnesota Vikings with Skylar Thompson behind Center. The Interceptions proved costly on the day, but Tua Tagovailoa has looked after the ball pretty well in his three and a bit games played this season and I do think the Quarter Back has a very good match up on his return against a banged up Steelers Secondary.

In his absence, the Dolphins have also been able to generate a bit more of a rushing crease to their Offense and that can only make things a touch more comfortable for their returning Quarter Back. Of course the Steelers are never easy to run the ball against, but the issues in the Secondary might mean things are a touch more open up front.

Even with extra men in coverage, the Steelers are giving up a huge amount of yards in the air, while TJ Watt's absence continues to be felt when it comes to generating a consistent pass rush.

I do think Tua Tagovailoa will have enough time to find his strong Receiving corps and I think the Miami Dolphins can win big as they snap their three game losing run.

Miami have been very good as the home team going back to last season, while the upset over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be difficult for the road team to back up with continued uncertainty about their Offensive efforts.

MY PICKS: Arizona Cardinals - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 13 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Las Vegas Raiders - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)