Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (January 30-31)

The next six weeks are incredibly busy not only for Premier League teams, but also for those of us playing the Fantasy Football game with deadlines coming around very quickly, perhaps even while the previous GameWeek is not fully completed.

That is not the case this week, but there isn't much time between the end of GW20 and the beginning of GW21 with the deadline coming up on Saturday morning at 11am, an hour and a half before Everton and Newcastle United get the next round of fixtures going.

Fantasy thoughts will be below, but for us Manchester United fans GW20 proved to be something of a reality check after the 1-2 home defeat to Sheffield United.

It is a hugely disappointing result and one that has handed the title initiative back to Manchester City, but this could be the kind of setback that sparks another positive run.

There are two ways for this to go- either Manchester United will show there is a genuine belief they can go on and win some big prizes this year, and that means winning at Arsenal on Saturday and riding the momentum through Southampton and Everton, but the other is that United suffer another couple of poor results and slip away from Manchester City before their rivals face a tough portion of their schedule.

At this stage it is hard to know the direction United will go, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will have noted that he can't rely on the squad and it may mean having to play stronger teams than he would like every few days during this busy part of the season.

For me United really missed Luke Shaw on Wednesday, while the likes of Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford have run out of chances- I expect one to play every week, but both can't be selected while Mason Greenwood offers a better balance on the right side of the attack and Edinson Cavani is clearly the best Number 9 at the club.

I don't doubt it is hard for players to go without rest, but that is where Manchester United have to prioritise the Premier League over the Cup competitions which are scheduled to be played in February.

Going forward I would like to see a team like this one in most games: David De Gea, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Eric Bailly, Harry Maguire, Luke Shaw, Paul Pogba, Fred, Bruno Fernandes, Mason Greenwood, Marcus Rashford and Edinson Cavani.

You can rotate Victor Lindelof with Bailly, Scott McTominay with Fred, and Anthony Martial with Rashford to bring in some fresh legs, but that would be my starting eleven for most Premier League games.

In the FA Cup and the Europa League you can make more changes with Dean Henderson, Alex Telles, Axel Tuanzebe, Nemanja Matic, Juan Mata, Daniel James and Amad Diallo being given more chances. I would certainly look for the squad to work their way past West Ham United and Real Sociedad while making sure Manchester United remain strong in the Premier League, although the change in priority could occur if a poor run does extend through the next couple of weeks in light of the defeat to Sheffield United.

Saturday is a big test for Manchester United from the manager down to the players and will tell us a lot about where they currently stand in their belief and confidence.

Everton v Newcastle United Pick: The opening game of the Premier League weekend sees Everton and Newcastle United both looking to return to winning ways after setbacks during the week. Both teams may feel they should have gotten more from their latest fixtures, but confidence is clearly with the home team ahead of kick off.

Everton have been playing well under Carlo Ancelotti which has seen them pushing up the Premier League standings as well as progressing in the FA Cup. They could have easily stolen three points against in-form Leicester City during the week, but the draw is not the worst result in the world and Everton have tended to beat those teams they should, especially at home.

This season there have been defeats to teams like West Ham United, Manchester United and Leeds United at Goodison Park, but only one of those are currently below Everton in the table. Everton have managed to beat the other four clubs they have faced who are below them in the Premier League table including wins over two of the current bottom five.

Now they host a Newcastle United team who have lost 5 Premier League games in a row overall as well as their last 5 away League games. Steve Bruce is under pressure from the fans, but the empty stands means there have not been a massive visible movement to have the manager removed and so far he retains the support of Mike Ashley.

The manager was encouraged by what he saw in the 1-2 defeat to Leeds United during the week and Newcastle United look to be getting healthier. They created some really good moments in the loss to Leeds United, but Everton are unlikely to be as open and I think this is a team who will be able to create chances against Newcastle United.

The Newcastle United defensive numbers are not very encouraging and they have been conceding a lot of goals. I expect James Rodriguez, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin to expose those defensive problems and I think Everton will most likely win a fixture which features at least two total goals shared out.

Crystal Palace v Wolves Pick: I didn't think there would be a lot of goals when Crystal Palace and West Ham United met here during the week, but an early one for the home team really changed the complexion of the fixture.

Roy Hodgson's men scored twice in the eventual 2-3 defeat to their London rivals, but Crystal Palace did not create a lot of chances and that remains a big problem for them. In recent weeks that has blighted Crystal Palace who have been reliant on special moments from some of their more creative attacking players to break through and I think that is something that can't be sustained.

The expected goals have underlined the struggles in the final third and they may find it difficult to break down Wolves if the visitors are as strong as they were at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday evening. While still looking toothless for the most part going the other way, Wolves restricted Chelsea to very few chances despite the huge possession in favour of the hosts.

That result makes it back to back away clean sheets for Wolves who have been struggling in the Premier League ever since Raul Jimenez suffered a terrible injury.

It does have to be said that Wolves have looked a little more dangerous than Crystal Palace, but they could have a difficult day in the final third. While Crystal Palace have not been as consistent at the back as Roy Hodgson would have liked, in recent games they have had some big defensive performances around some of the weaker ones demonstrated.

You can't really tell which Crystal Palace team will turn up, but they have failed to score in both previous games against Wolves this season. Those results mean 5 of the 6 fixtures between these clubs have ended with one of the teams failing to score since Wolves returned to the top flight.

The exception was the 1-1 draw here last season, but Wolves needed an injury time goal to salvage that point and I am looking for this fixture to be much tighter than the Crystal Palace game played here during the week.

An early goal could open up the fixture again, but I think one of these teams will fail to find the net when two sides struggling for attacking consistency go up against relatively decent defences.

Manchester City v Sheffield United Pick: The layers look to have finally understood how well Manchester City have been performing defensively which means that the market for the home team to win with a clean sheet has been priced up significantly shorter than in other games in recent weeks.

Some of that may be down to the struggles of Sheffield United, but Pep Guardiola will be reminding his players to not take this opponent for granted.

The Sheffield United win at Old Trafford on Wednesday will really aid Manchester City here and prevent complacency setting in as they look to take control of the Premier League. There is a big League game coming up at Anfield, but Pep Guardiola will be demanding Manchester City go into it with two more Premier League wins and they should have far too much for Sheffield United on recent form.

Chris Wilder has to be given credit for picking strong teams in the Sheffield United FA Cup ties as he believed that would help turn the Premier League form. Since the Third Round win at Bristol Rovers, The Blades have won 2 of their 3 Premier League games played and Sheffield United might have given themselves a real chance of avoiding the drop.

The form in the first half of the season has left Sheffield United behind the black ball as they look to avoid relegation, but the win at Old Trafford will have given them a huge sense of belief. It also means they can't really afford to overlook any fixture in favour of another, but Sheffield United put in a huge effort to beat Manchester United and it wouldn't be a big surprise if they are already considering how to handle their next game.

On Tuesday Sheffield United host fellow relegation candidates West Brom and that is easily more important than this fixture. It is imperative that Sheffield United win that next game and so I can see the team being set up to make life difficult for Manchester City, but one that perhaps will be selected with the next League game in mind.

Manchester City are in ruthless form at the moment and they have won 11 games in a row so it is no surprise they are big favourites to tick that forward at least one more game. They have not always put teams to the sword, but Manchester City's win over West Brom on Tuesday shows what they can do when at their best and I think they are playing with real momentum.

Another clean sheet won't be a surprise, but this is still a difficult handicap to cover. Manchester City would only have covered this mark in 5 of their 15 home games in all competitions this season and the likes of Fulham, Newcastle United and Brighton have been beaten by two or fewer goals here.

It also has to be said that The Blades have rarely been beaten easily this season as the hard work keeps them competitive, and that is going to be key for them here. Once again the best approach may be backing Manchester City to win this one with a clean sheet even though the layers are getting on top of that market, but this may be the best avenue to go because Sheffield United might be looking to set up deep and just try to limit the damage on the day.

All 3 Manchester City wins over Sheffield United in the last eighteen months have come with clean sheets and I think that is the most likely outcome of this game too.

West Brom v Fulham Pick: Sam Allardyce may well feel his greatest achievement in his managerial career will be keeping West Brom in the Premier League, but another heavy home defeat will not have helped the confidence of the players.

The expert at keeping teams in the Premier League will be really disappointed by the results he has overseen at The Hawthorns as West Brom became the first team in over forty years who have conceded at least three times in five consecutive home top flight games.

Some of the defeats can be forgiven with Aston Villa, Arsenal and Manchester City all winning here, but the heavy loss to Leeds United will have hurt. The other defeat to Crystal Palace will also be hard for the West Brom players to explain and Sam Allardyce has admitted there seems to be some worry about playing here even without the fans in attendance.

West Brom have had some decent results away from home, but Allardyce won't be looking for excuses on Saturday in what is a vital relegation six pointer against 18th placed Fulham.

Scott Parker's team battled to a goalless draw with Brighton during the week, but the manager will know Fulham need to start putting some wins on the board if they have serious ambitions of avoiding the drop. The point is not a bad one at Brighton, but Fulham were very fortunate and it makes it hard to see them as a favourite to win away from home.

Fulham have looked a little stronger over the last couple of months, but they have struggled for the balance between attack and defence. I think Scott Parker would likely take a point, but this is a tough game for his team considering their recent performances.

That isn't saying that West Brom are in very strong form, but I do think this is the kind of match that Allardyce would have targeted for a victory. I think he will be drilling that into his players and his history suggests he will get a reaction, while West Brom are unlikely to be punished in the same way Arsenal and Manchester City have done at The Hawthorns.

The first goal will be absolutely massive on Saturday, but West Brom do look capable of avoiding a defeat as the home underdog.

Arsenal v Manchester United Pick: There is little doubt that a lot of Manchester United fans will have been getting excited not only by the recent results earned by the club, but also the position in the Premier League table.

Being top for the first time after New Year's Day since May 2013 when Sir Alex Ferguson was still in charge is exciting, but we will see how genuine a title contender Manchester United are over the next week.

Losing to Sheffield United at Old Trafford is a huge blow, but Manchester United were going to have a setback at some point and the key is how they respond to that defeat. A loss to the bottom club will be hard to swallow, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will want to see his team dust themselves off ahead of what is a crucial part of the season.

Manchester United could spiral, especially with tough fixtures ahead of them, but playing at the Emirates Stadium may also inspire and motivate the players who have not suffered an away League defeat for over twelve months.

This has been a tough place for Manchester United to play in recent times and they have lost 4 of their last 5 at Arsenal in the Premier League. 3 of the last 4 have ended up in comfortable 2-0 wins for Arsenal and Mikel Arteta's team still believe they can challenge for a Champions League spot having picked up their own recent form.

Inconsistency hasn't been erased completely and Arsenal have struggled to always impose themselves on opponents at the Emirates Stadium. The Gunners have won 2 of their last 3 League games here against Chelsea and Newcastle United, but between that they could only draw with Crystal Palace and were perhaps fortunate to earn that point.

Arsenal have looked a little better defensively of late, but that will be tested by Manchester United who have looked good away from Old Trafford. There is naturally more space for Manchester United to exploit and I think they can be very dangerous, while defensively I expect a much better performance with Luke Shaw and Victor Lindelof or Eric Bailly back to partner Harry Maguire.

My expectation is that Manchester United will pick a team that is not as open as the one that faced Sheffield United and it has been a selection that makes them harder to beat. Liverpool found that out in the goalless draw at Anfield against Manchester United earlier this month, but the visitors created some big chances in that fixture too which is why I believe Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will approach this game the same way.

The results have been improved, but Arsenal have still looked a little unsure of themselves when getting forward and Manchester United will erode the confidence of their hosts as long as they don't give anything away. Defensively there have been improvements, but Manchester United should be able to create something here and I think the first goal will be crucial.

Games between Arsenal and Manchester United have been tight and competitive in recent seasons, and the last 4 League games have ended with fewer than three goals shared out. I think that will be the case on Saturday with both managers likely to set their teams up to not give too much away early, but there may be one or two chances to win the game in the second half and I think the layers are underestimating the likelihood of goals being at a premium on Saturday afternoon in wet, and potentially windy, conditions in North London.

Southampton v Aston Villa Pick: Two of the 'trendier' teams for the neutrals to get behind meet in the late kick off on Saturday in the Premier League and I do think Southampton and Aston Villa can provide some real entertainment for the fans.

When they met earlier this season at Villa Park the fixture ended 3-4 in favour of Southampton, although Aston Villa will feel they deserved a bit more than they ended up getting.

Now they will be looking for revenge as Aston Villa continue to create chances and play with a very positive attitude and nothing is expected to change here. They will know their hosts are having a few issues at the back and Aston Villa have played a refreshing brand of football which has them chasing European Football.

Southampton are also looking to earn a spot back in Europe and they will feel they could have gotten more out of the 1-3 defeat to Arsenal during the week. They are short of the numbers they would have liked to go in with, but Southampton continue to try and play attacking football and they will believe they can challenge an Aston Villa team who have been conceding plenty of chances and goals away from home.

Another high-scoring game between these two could be the outcome if there is an early strike to get things going, although picking a winner is not easy at all.

Chelsea v Burnley Pick: A new manager might have been in the dugout, but Chelsea did not have the kind of response some may have expected in the goalless draw with Wolves at Stamford Bridge during the week. They dominated the possession, but Chelsea did not create as many chances as Thomas Tuchel may privately have liked, although outwardly he was pretty happy with what he had seen.

More training sessions may mean a different look to the team that takes to the field on Sunday, but Tuchel is a manager who will be demanding more from his players.

They will need more if they are going to be a Burnley team who have won 3 in a row in all competitions and in their last away Premier League game became the first team to win at Anfield since April 2017. Burnley defended really well that day, although they largely rode their luck and had Nick Pope to thank for the 3-2 win over Aston Villa at Turf Moor in their last League game.

Aston Villa created a lot of chances in that game, but I am not sure we can expect Chelsea to show any more composure in the final third as they rebuild their own confidence. It will mean they have to take risks and Burnley will believe they can cause some panic in the home ranks the longer they can stay in the game.

Much will depend if Burnley can show a bit more toughness in their defending- what I mean by that is that in recent games Burnley have struggled to keep teams from creating big chances and I do think it is a problem for Burnley even if they are once again finding big results.

The last couple of times they have faced Chelsea it has been one way traffic against Burnley as they have been punished by the quality that The Blues can call upon.

This will be important for Chelsea- they have to get off to a faster start than they did against Wolves who became comfortable defending, but I expect Thomas Tuchel to have worked on that. I expect the home team to dominate the ball, but they have players who should be able to create enough in the final third to expose Nick Pope as others have and I think Chelsea will find a way to win this game.

In recent times Chelsea have begun to get the better of Burnley and they can extend their run of wins by two goals or more against this opponent to 4 games.

Leicester City v Leeds United Pick: The second game in the Premier League on Sunday has all the makings of a really good watch for the neutrals and that is largely down to the fact that Leeds United will always come out to play their football.

Some will criticise Marcelo Bielsa for that as it leaves his team very open and susceptible to the counter attack and that may especially be the case in this fixture against one of the best at attacking in transition in the League.

The absence of Jamie Vardy is a blow for Leicester City, but they still have pace and quality in the final third and the performance at Everton was more encouraging than the result. Brendan Rodgers has stated that his team have been able to cope in previous Vardy absences and I do think this is a good match for Leicester City who will likely be able to exploit key spaces that Leeds United will leave behind.

For the main part Leicester City have defended really well and in recent weeks that has especially been the case. While it is not easy to defend against this Leeds United team who come forward in numbers, Leicester City won't be worried about bringing them towards the backline and then springing with attacking intent.

That tactical approach saw Leicester City crush Leeds United at Elland Road earlier this season.

And the Leeds United approach has seen them vulnerable when facing some of the better teams in the Premier League, especially away from home. While they have played their part in those fixtures, Leeds United have conceded at least three goals at Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur this season, while Leicester City scored four times at Elland Road.

It would not be a major surprise if Leeds United scored here, but I think they are going to be very vulnerable to the Leicester City counter. Jamie Vardy is missing, but Leicester City have created a lot of chances in their last 2 home Premier League games and I do think they still have enough to win this game in what could be a relatively high-scoring one this weekend.

West Ham United v Liverpool Pick: Two of the top five meet on Sunday afternoon at the London Stadium when West Ham United host Liverpool and this is a very important game for both teams.

David Moyes has had a couple of days more than Jurgen Klopp to prepare his team and West Ham United have been in fine form. The team are creating chances, while they are defending really well too and Moyes has got the players believing and overachieving so far this season.

Finishing in the Champions League spots will be difficult, but any return to European Football would be a bonus for West Ham United. In a strange season where results have been a little wonky, David Moyes will feel there is an opportunity for West Ham United, although he will also know how important it is to take things game by game.

All credit has to be given to West Ham United for their 6 game winning run, but a couple of those wins came against lower League opposition in the FA Cup. Since the win over Everton, The Hammers have beaten three Premier League clubs who are sitting in 14th place or lower and they were beaten 1-3 by Manchester United at the London Stadium earlier this season.

If the match had been played a week ago West Ham United might have felt like Liverpool were there for the taking, but the Champions have not played badly in their last 2 away games. The defeat at Old Trafford would have hurt, but Liverpool dominated Tottenham Hotspur and fully deserved their win in North London, while they should have won at Newcastle United and Southampton on the strength of the chances created.

Liverpool have a very strong record at West Ham United in recent years and that also has to be respected, but they have yet to show the consistency away from home that the manager would have demanded. This team is missing key players in central defence which looks like leaving Liverpool vulnerable to this West Ham United team, although I do think the visitors will cause problems of their own.

The away record overall has to be a concern for Liverpool who look short here, especially if West Ham United defend as well as they have been in recent games. This will be a challenge for The Hammers and really give us a good idea of how far they can go this season, but I would be surprised if Liverpool were able to win comfortably considering the form of both clubs.

They may edge it, but I think West Ham United will push Liverpool all the way as they did at Anfield earlier this season and it should be a really competitive game.

Brighton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur will be disappointed with home results in the Premier League during the week.

Brighton drew with Fulham in a game they dominated, but it has been a trend for them this season. No one should doubt the amount of chances Brighton can create, but they are lacking composure in the final third to convert those which would have them operating much higher up the Premier League table.

Their visitors were beaten by Liverpool on Thursday and Tottenham Hotspur also look set to lose Harry Kane for a few matches. That is a real blow for Jose Mourinho's team who did not defend well and were punished for mistakes at the back, although Liverpool also created some very strong moments against them.

All in all Brighton have to be encouraged about their chances in this one and they did beat Tottenham Hotspur 3-0 here last season. Graham Potter won't change his style which does leave Brighton open against some of the best teams in the Premier League, but the manager believes it does give Brighton a chance to upset those teams if at their best.

We haven't seen that too often, but Brighton have rarely rolled over for the top teams in the Premier League. They will certainly believe they have nothing to lose if they can get after a Tottenham Hotspur team who have allowed teams to create some significant moments against them in recent weeks.

Defensively there are questions and some will believe there are problems in attack now that Harry Kane is set to miss some time. The striker has been a huge key to the way Tottenham Hotspur have approached games, but Tottenham Hotspur should be able to employ counter attacking tactics in this one with the knowledge that Brighton will look to get forward in numbers to hurt them.

I think there is a real chance Brighton could earn the upset if they are clinical in the final third and games against the top teams have been pretty high scoring over the last eighteen months. That is down to their own defensive shortcomings which tend to be exploited by the better teams in the Division and I do think the layers are underestimating the chance of seeing at least three goals here.

4 of the last 5 between Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur have ended that way and recent games at the Amex Stadium have seen some big chances being created at both ends of the field.

A 1-1 scoreline could scupper things, but I expect at least one more goal to be shared out when Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur meet in the final Premier League game of the weekend.

MY PICKS: Everton & Over 1.5 Goals

Crystal Palace-Wolves Both Teams to Score- NO

Manchester City Win to Nil

West Brom + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Arsenal-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals

Southampton-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals

Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals

West Ham United + 0.75 Asian Handicap

Brighton-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 21

I made the decision to keep Marcus Rashford in GW20 and it turned out to be the right decision in terms of he wasn't going to be missing through injury- other than that the less said the better.

The transfer to bring in Ilkay Gundogan might have been one that many decided on, but everyone was rewarded when the Manchester City midfielder scored twice. He did miss out on a couple of extra points having been withdrawn before the 60th minute mark, but that almost certainly suggests Gundogan will start on Saturday in what looks like another potentially high-scoring return for Manchester City when they face Sheffield United at the Etihad Stadium.

63 points feels like a decent return, but I am writing this before the Tottenham Hotspur versus Liverpool game and that could be one that damages the overall ranking which is approaching the top 300k.

So where am I at this week? Sergio Reguilon has got to go and I do feel there are some options available to me.

I love the new positioning of Lucas Digne in the Everton team, while you can't ignore the obvious set piece potential he brings. Everton have some decent fixtures coming up and what I feel is going to be a DGW as their fixture is likely going to be played against Manchester City sooner rather than later.

He is appealing, but I am also keen on Antonio Rudiger with Chelsea's fixture list and the feeling he has already overtaken Kurt Zouma as the foremost partner for Thiago Silva. I do think that will be strengthened by the arrival of Rudiger's compatriot as manager of the club and Thomas Tuchel was previously considered keen to bring him to Paris Saint-Germain while in charge in the French capital.

Matt Targett is proving to be valuable for Aston Villa as another defender capable of bringing in attacking returns and they look to be the focus of my interest for that position.

I am a little irritated with the injury to Reguilon as he was likely going to play most weeks through to the end of February, but now I have to make a change. It has prevented me attacking the transfers in the manner I would have wished, as the Kevin De Bruyne injury also did, although I am considering a hit this week having avoided one last week.

Tomas Soucek and myself are not seeing eye to eye despite him largely being a feature in my squad from day one this season- after blanking in his DGW I decided to bench him in GW20 and was duly punished in the worst way meaning I have missed out on two of his hauls this season.

That is pointless from the cheap midfield option and I am looking at Leicester City assets to come in with Leeds United and Fulham next up for them. The injury to Jamie Vardy is a blow, but the fixtures look more appealing than West Ham United's and add to that the fact that Leicester City could soon be involved in a DGW and it makes a lot of sense.

It would mean bringing in Michail Antonio at some point because the West Ham fixtures do improve next week, but in a strange season I feel like I have had to take more hits than I would have liked and have not been able to roll transfers through as I would have liked.

The fixture list over the next month was updated on Friday and that included placing the FA Cup Fifth Round ties in their slots- I am surprised that there hasn't been more of an effort to actually re-arrange the seven games that have definitely needed to be moved from their original slots, especially as two of those involve Manchester City.

With full involvement in all four competitions they began the season with, Manchester City don't have a lot of room in the calendar to avoid having to play three times in six days and so I am surprised the Premier League have not made plans. Perhaps they are waiting for the FA Cup ties to be completed next week before GW24, but is the one where I think their game either at Everton or hosting Southampton should be played.

Both of those teams are playing on Sunday in GW24 so the fixture with Manchester City is most likely to be played around 5:30/6pm on Wednesday regardless of whether it is Everton or Southampton. For us Fantasy players it is irritating as we might not be able to prepare for the upcoming DGW as we normally would, but it is that kind of season after all.

I am also surprised the Premier League are willing to kick so many games down the road- you would think clubs would want to at least have played the same amount of fixtures as those around them as soon as possible. Add in the uncertainty about whether Covid-19 will impact on any more fixtures and I am a little unsure as to why the Premier League have not made firmer decisions right now.

UEFA have already given Leagues permission to schedule games on nights reserved for European Football (although kick off time would prevent a clash) with the belief that that will allow all fixtures to be completed in timely fashion, while the integrity of the League should mean teams will not want to hold onto 'games in hand' for too long.

Some of it may be down to the FA Cup Fifth Round coming up as the Premier League looks to see how many games will need to be re-arranged in GW29 when the Quarter Finals are set to be played, while teams not involved in European Football do have a bit more room for manoeuvre.

All the signs point to GW26 being the biggest double left in the calendar, but there are plenty of additional DGWs which can make the difference as long as we get to find out when those fixtures are going to be played.

I think some of those may be arranged at short notice, while fixtures could be moved around depending on how the FA Cup Quarter Final line up shapes up (for example a Tottenham Hotspur loss at Everton and a Sheffield United win over Bristol City could see the postponed Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur game moved to GW29 rather than offering a DGW later in the season).

This is just something we cannot account for this season, but keep an eye on fixtures and leave transfers as late as possible so you can perhaps take advantage of the situations as they come up.

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (January 26-28)

That honestly felt like one of the longest GameWeeks we have seen in Fantasy Football as it covered over a week of matches, but it has turned out to be a decent one and without having to use any of the Chips we have over the second half of the season.

The games keep coming in this congested season and the next four GameWeeks are going to be played over a two week period which means you have to be aware of rotations so having a deep bench is going to be imperative. More on this below, but first my thoughts about the ten Premier League games to be played between Tuesday and Thursday.

Crystal Palace v West Ham United Pick: In recent years the West Ham United fans have been far from convinced about the direction the club were moving in, but they will feel much happier with what they are seeing at the moment.

David Moyes is really getting the best from the squad and 5 wins in a row in 2021 is giving the team confidence as they progress up the Premier League standings and also in the FA Cup. The manager was able to rest some key players in the 4-0 Cup win over Doncaster Rovers this past weekend, but that took nothing away from what looks a stronger squad than the one he had last season.

There is still a hope that another striker can be brought into the London Stadium to ease the burden on Michail Antonio, but for now West Ham United will make the relatively short trip to Selhurst Park with plenty of belief behind them.

Defensively they have been very good and that has resulted in a single goal conceded in their last 5 games in all competitions. The numbers back up those successes and I think West Ham United can make life difficult for Crystal Palace.

However, Roy Hodgson has had a number of days to prepare for this fixture after his team were beaten in the FA Cup Third Round at Wolves earlier in the month. It should mean Wilfred Zaha is available having missed the 4-0 defeat at Manchester City, although Crystal Palace continue to be inconsistent in the final third.

They have not scored in their last 3 games in all competitions, but all of those fixtures came away from Selhurst Park. At home Crystal Palace have largely managed to find the net and that makes them dangerous even against the strong system West Ham United have been playing in.

Games between these teams have usually produced goals for both, and they did draw 1-1 at the London Stadium around six weeks ago. However it was not a game blessed with a lot of chances and I think the recent performances of the two teams suggest one of these sides will fail to find the net.

Crystal Palace are perhaps being under-rated as the home underdog, but my bigger feeling is that one of these teams will fail to find the net with two organised managers in charge. The last 7 between Crystal Palace and West Ham United have seen both teams score, but I am looking for that run to end here.

Newcastle United v Leeds United Pick: The next two weeks could be absolutely huge for Newcastle United and especially manager Steve Bruce with 3 of the next 4 Premier League games being played at St James' Park. The feeling is that Mike Ashley doesn't really want to have to sack Bruce, but Newcastle United have to arrest the slide towards the relegation zone and the fixture list is one from which they should be earning positive results.

First up is Leeds United who have lost their last 3 games in all competitions without scoring a goal, although Marcelo Bielsa has had a number of days to prepare his team for this fixture. That is an important development for Leeds United who have perhaps not played as poorly as the results suggest, while also giving the players the chance to just reset after the defeats.

This is a team that will continue to play the same way and that means Leeds United will be getting forward and looking to attack a vulnerable Newcastle United team. The Magpies have looked a mess at the back which has given teams some big chances to score goals against them, while they have been struggling for goals themselves that only increases the overall pressure on the team.

Steve Bruce is trying to find the right formula to change the feelings around the club, but Newcastle United do look vulnerable to a team like Leeds United.

The visitors have lost 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games, but those have come at Stamford Bridge, Old Trafford and the new White Hart Lane. This is a much more winnable game for Leeds United who have visited 3 clubs that are currently below them in the Premier League table and have won 2 of those.

Leeds United should have the goals to take this game away from Newcastle United and I think they can win here. I expect Newcastle United to have better successes going forward, if only because of the Leeds United style, but the visitors should be well prepared and I think Marcelo Bielsa will have his team ready to win here.

Southampton v Arsenal Pick: Anyone who watched the FA Cup Fourth Round tie between Southampton and Arsenal on Saturday will be expecting another tight and competitive game between the two teams.

Ralph Hasenhuttl went with a stronger looking team than Mikel Arteta and the Austrian was rewarded with a 1-0 win for Southampton.

That result means Southampton have kept 4 clean sheets in a row at St Mary's, although they are going to be missing what most would consider to be three of the first choice back four in this fixture. It will put pressure on the home team who have defended well and then punished teams with the quality that James Ward-Prowse, Stuart Armstrong, Danny Ings and Che Adams have been able to produce in the final third.

Southampton have not been creating a lot of chances though and those players have made the best of what they have been given. It is hard to sustain that over a length of time and now they face an Arsenal team who had kept 5 clean sheets in a row before the 1-0 defeat here over the weekend.

Mikel Arteta's team have looked to be playing with more confidence of late, but Arsenal are still not creating as many chances as the manager would like. That has made those clean sheets very valuable and Arsenal have managed to do that in their last 2 away games at West Brom and Brighton.

I am expecting another tight game between these teams who have shared out three goals across 180 minutes against one another in the last six weeks. Both teams will want to get forward, but they could be faced with tough defences that are playing with some confidence and limiting the amount of chances opponents have been able to create against them.

4 of the last 5 games between these clubs have ended with less than three goals shared out and I would not be surprised to see that being the case again on Tuesday. The injuries and suspensions in the Southampton backline have to be a concern, but the system should keep the home team strong and hard to break down, while Arsenal have been focusing on their defensive performances to the detriment of their attacking output of late.

One of the teams failing to score would not be a big surprise and I am expecting a low-scoring fixture to be played out.

West Brom v Manchester City Pick: With 19 Premier League games to play and with a 6 point gap to Brighton outside of the bottom three you do have to believe that every point will matter to West Brom if they are going to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

The Baggies have appointed Sam Allardyce to aid them in their bid to avoid relegation and ten days ago West Brom won for the first time under the former England manager.

They have had time to prepare for this fixture having lost in the FA Cup Third Round, but Allardyce is a pragmatic manager and he will know which games West Brom need to target if they are going escape their current plight. He has made it clear that anything from this fixture would be a bonus, but West Brom face Fulham and Sheffield United over the next week and there is no doubt that The Baggies will be looking for results in those games.

It could mean Sam Allardyce is perhaps looking at this fixture as little more than a distraction in preparing for those games against fellow clubs inside the bottom three. Ultimately the manager has indicated that a win in this one will mean nothing if West Brom were not able to beat fellow relegation candidates and I think that could influence team selection.

Manchester City may be more vulnerable to an upset without Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero and last month West Brom rode their luck at times to earn a 1-1 draw at the Etihad Stadium. That will be encouraging, but West Brom didn't create a lot and I expect a defensive performance from the hosts which should help Manchester City move into a position to earn another clean sheet.

It should be noted that Manchester City are perhaps more vulnerable away from home having only kept a single clean sheet in their last 4 games on on their travels in all competitions. However two of those were Cup ties with changes made and Chelsea scored very late on having trailed 0-3 in the other game in that time.

West Brom have not scored in their last 3 home games and offered little threat against Aston Villa, Leeds United and Arsenal. I think they may not want to run their key players into the ground before the big games coming up and I think it will result in a comfortable Manchester City win on the day.

Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero are big absences, but Raheem Sterling, Bernardo Silva have been rested and Phil Foden is in fine form for the visitors. I expect they will have enough quality at both ends to earn the three points and likely with yet another clean sheet for the John Stones-Ruben Dias centre defence partnership to enjoy.

Burnley v Aston Villa Pick: This has the makings of an intriguing Premier League fixture and one that both Sean Dyche and Dean Smith will be confident that their team can produce the three points.

Burnley and Aston Villa have both been in positive form and I do think there is enough to like about the way the teams have been approaching fixtures to believe this could be a better game than some would think.

Aston Villa have been creating chances, but this is a team who have not defended as well as their overall numbers would suggest. It has especially been evident in recent away games, although Aston Villa will point out that those fixtures have come against some of the better teams in the Premier League.

Now while Burnley are not on the same level as Chelsea and the two Manchester clubs, they have been playing well enough in recent weeks to believe in themselves. Even in the 0-1 defeat to Manchester United, Burnley did create chances although they have been struggling to contain teams at the back too.

When these teams met last month it ended goalless, but Aston Villa created a host of very good chances in that fixture and I do think they will do the same here.

However I think Burnley are playing pretty well at home and they should be able to have some opportunities of their own. Both games in the Premier League between these clubs finished with at least three goals last season and I do believe an early goal could open this fixture up with both teams perhaps offering up more good scoring chances than their managers would really like.

Burnley home games have been low-scoring throughout the season, but Aston Villa can help open things up and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.

Chelsea v Wolves Pick: There was some surprise in the English media that Frank Lampard was sacked as manager of Chelsea, but this is a club that tolerates very little underachievement.

The reality is that Chelsea have spent a lot of money in the summer and they would have expected to be much closer to the top. Instead Chelsea have been left in 9th place and they are 5 points behind the top four in a season where the top of the Division has been wide open.

For whatever reason, you can't deny that Chelsea have been in miserable form for almost two months having looked like a genuine title contender. I am not sure if the players knew there were some who were uncertain about Lampard and decided to down tools, or whether confidence has just been shot to bits, but Chelsea have not been getting the results they would have wanted.

Thomas Tuchel is the latest man expected to take over at Stamford Bridge and he will know all the about the pressure that comes at clubs like this. He had been under that pressure in his last job at Paris Saint-Germain, but the German will be tasked to turn the form around and at least help Chelsea get back into the Champions League.

He won't be in charge on Wednesday, but Tuchel may pick the team and Chelsea have been playing better than some of the results have suggested. The Blues have creative players and they should be able to do that against Wolves who have been in miserable form themselves and don't look the same without Raul Jimenez leading the line.

Wolves did come from behind to beat Chelsea at Molineux last month, but they had lost 3 away Premier League games in a row before the 3-3 draw at Brighton. The chances that teams have been creating against Wolves is a real worry for Nuno Espirito Santo and I think we will see a big reaction from the Chelsea players on Wednesday afternoon.

There may be a sense of freedom or maybe they had lost faith in Frank Lampard and will be looking to show a new manager what they are capable of. Chelsea have been creating enough chances and playing well enough at Stamford Bridge to get the better of Wolves and I think they will be able to break down an out of form team in the victory.

The Blues were unfortunate to lose to Wolves when they met earlier this season, but I think they earn a measure of revenge here and begin the move back up the League table.

Brighton v Fulham Pick: Over the next two weeks there are some very big games between those clubs at the bottom of the Premier League table.

The teams in and around the bottom four are meeting one another regularly in that time and by the end of those two weeks we should have a good idea as to which of the clubs are able to avoid relegation.

Brighton have to find a way to win at the Amex Stadium having failed to do so in over six months in the Premier League, but they have won back to back games and that will be encouraging for Graham Potter. A win on Wednesday will really open the gap between Brighton and the bottom three and the side have played better than their overall results would suggest.

There will be a confidence in the home squad, but Fulham have to find a way to match that having lost 3 games in a row in all competitions. All 3 losses have come at home and Fulham were dumped out of the FA Cup on Sunday, but Scott Parker knows his team have an opportunity in front of them.

In the next few days Fulham visit Brighton and West Brom, the teams currently sandwiching them in 18th place, and wins in both would really inspire the players. However there is always the other side of the coin which says defeats in both games would leave Fulham struggling to find the belief to avoid the drop and so this is a very important week for the entire club.

Avoiding defeat would likely be acceptable in one game as long as Fulham can win the other game, but this is a team who have been struggling to find the balance at both ends of the field. While they have looked a bit better defensively, Fulham have not been creating a lot of chances and we may see a similar game as to when these clubs met at Craven Cottage which finished goalless.

Chances didn't come easy that day, although Brighton may feel a touch more fortunate to have come away with the draw. This time I expect Brighton to have the better of the play, but these are two teams who won't want to give a lot away and I think we will see a tight and competitive game produced.

It may result in one of the teams failing to find the net as they look to prevent giving too much encouragement to the other and this may be a relatively low-scoring fixture.

Everton v Leicester City Pick: Both Carlo Ancelotti and Brendan Rodgers have to be very satisfied with what they have seen from their Everton and Leicester City teams respectively as we approach the end of January.

Both clubs are still in the FA Cup and both are dreaming of a return to the Champions League which only increases the importance of this fixture.

While Everton have been a little inconsistent at home in recent weeks, Leicester City have won 5 in a row overall and 5 of their last 6 away games which will give them confidence. Even the absence of Jamie Vardy until next month has not been a major concern for Leicester City who feel there is a real depth at the club that makes them dangerous.

Last season's experiences should help Leicester City who have quality in the final third that will make life very difficult for Everton. I expect The Foxes to create chances here, although the last time Leicester City were beaten came in a fixture against Everton.

That win for Everton at the King Power Stadium last month was deserved and the first team look as healthy as they have since the beginning of the season. At that stage Carlo Ancelotti was getting plenty out of his players and I think they are going to be dangerous too in what looks to be a decent fixture on paper.

Goals have tended to flow when these teams have faced one another and I do think both Everton and Leicester City are playing well when looking to attack. At the same time there are one or two vulnerabilities in defensive areas which can be exposed by the other and 11 of the last 12 between these clubs at Goodison Park have ended with at least three goals shared out.

On current form I would think a 2-1 victory either way can't be ruled out and I do think this will be a fixture in which goals will be the outcome.

Manchester United v Sheffield United Pick: At the start of this latest round of Premier League fixtures this is one featuring top versus bottom, although Manchester United will likely be kicking off in 2nd place assuming Manchester City beat West Brom at The Hawthorns.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer won't be worrying about League position at kick off, but will be expecting Manchester United to focus on the task in hand which is making sure they don't drop any silly points. It has been the foundation of success for Manchester United who have won all of their League games played against the current bottom seven in the League standings.

Manchester United's win over Liverpool in the FA Cup Fourth Round will only add to the confidence of the players and this is a game they should win. They have won 5 of their last 6 at Old Trafford in all competitions and there has been an improvement in the performances both going forward and defensively.

It is certainly expected to be good enough to beat a Sheffield United team who have looked out of their depth in the Premier League this season. They haven't been as bad as only managing 5 points, but Sheffield United have once again struggled for goals and defensively they have certainly taken a step back from last season.

Teams have been able to not only get after Sheffield United, but Aaron Ramsdale has struggled to replicate the success Dean Henderson had which has left Chris Wilder's team in a vulnerable spot.

Sheffield United have looked a little stronger at home, but they have not created a lot in their most recent away games. The Blades have only scored a single goal in their last 5 away Premier League games and that lack of a cutting edge is likely going to be costly for them here.

It does have to be said that Manchester United have not really dealt in clean sheets as much as they would have liked, but they have produced 4 in their 9 home League games this season. Manchester United beat Sheffield United 3-0 at Old Trafford last season too and I think they are likely going to win this game fairly comfortably on the day and with a clean sheet to boot.

Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: The final game of this round of Premier League fixtures looks a very important one, especially when it comes to a potential title challenge for either Tottenham Hotspur or Liverpool.

Both managers will likely expect the two Manchester clubs to win their Premier League fixtures that are played on Tuesday and Wednesday and that will open up a considerable gap to these two teams.

With that in mind I would expect Jose Mourinho and Jurgen Klopp to understand the importance of the three points which will keep them in touch with those leading teams. Anything less than the win on Thursday will put pressure on Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool and that goes as far as the pressure building on a top four chase.

When they met at Anfield last month Liverpool scored a late goal to win the game, but Tottenham Hotspur really will feel they deserved a lot more than they got. Now the onus is on Tottenham Hotspur playing in their own Stadium, although I expect Jose Mourinho will be looking for the counter attack to expose a Liverpool team that have been struggling.

They may have lost at Old Trafford, but at least there were some signs that Liverpool's attacking football was rediscovering the lost rhythm of recent weeks. Liverpool have still not scored in 4 Premier League games, although they have created some chances and it is unlikely that the front three will continue to misfire.

The goal scored at Manchester United might turn things around, but Tottenham Hotspur will feel they can pick up where the current Premier League leaders left off and that is using their speed and counter attacking to hurt the Champions. Playing on Monday evening in the FA Cup Fourth Round was not ideal, but Tottenham Hotspur have played well in recent games and they are a difficult team to see off.

As the home underdog I do think Tottenham Hotspur are worth backing and especially when you look at how Liverpool have played away from home all season. The feeling is that Liverpool are a little more predictable with their attacking play and Tottenham Hotspur should be well prepared to deal with what is in front of them.

Spurs have played well enough to believe they can expose the defensive vulnerabilities of their visitors, and I think Tottenham Hotspur are worth backing to avoid defeat.

In recent seasons Liverpool have had the edge when these teams have faced each other, but they have been fortunate to win their last 2 games against Spurs. In those games Tottenham Hotspur have played well and deserved more than they got, and they have created enough chances in recent fixtures to believe they can perhaps edge out Liverpool.

The neutrals should enjoy this fixture and I think it will be a close game, but Liverpool look short considering their recent form and overall away record. It may not ebb and flow as much as the Cup tie at Old Trafford on Sunday, but Jose Mourinho should be able to employ the counter attacking approach he favours and that may be good enough to pick up a positive result.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace-West Ham United Both Teams to Score- NO

Leeds United

Southampton-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals

Manchester City Win to Nil

Burnley-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals

Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals

Brighton-Fulham Both Teams to Score- NO

Everton-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals

Manchester United Win to Nil

Tottenham Hotspur + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 20

Any time you pick up close to 100 points in a single GameWeek without using any chips has to be considered a very good return, but I still feel a little disappointed.

Kevin De Bruyne's injury one minute before the 60th minute mark meant I got a very low return from the Captain choice in the DGW, while I have to ask the entire midfield what fascination they had with picking up bookings.

Example? Hakim Ziyech has had one booking all season, but somehow managed to pick up a yellow card in both games played and earned just 2 points from his DGW, a terrible signing for that week.

Marcus Rashford had two games and earned 3 points, Tomas Soucek had two games and earned 4 points so those three midfielders really let me down. So with that in mind to pick up 93 positive points (with the four point hit included) is a better return than I may have imagined if you had given me those totals before a ball had been kicked.

It was not an ideal week with De Bruyne picking up an injury and Rashford looking like a doubt after scoring against Liverpool in the FA Cup, but having to leave with a knee injury. Instead of wanting to move through GW20 without making a transfer, I can't have two 'premium' assets potentially missing a number of games and it may need a third hit in consecutive weeks to shape the squad as I would like.

The injury to Marcus Rashford does not sound like a serious one, but I do think he will miss the fixture against Sheffield United and that is a big blow for my team. It is frustrating too, considering the moves made to have the squad in a good position heading into early February, but this is one of those seasons where the best made plans have fallen by the wayside and there really isn't much you can do about that.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has stated Marcus Rashford has been in training on Monday and Tuesday, and it is something that is perhaps going to prevent me taking the hit. I have a decent looking bench this week if he doesn't play, but there is always the worry that Rashford comes on for a cameo as he did at Fulham last week.

Kevin De Bruyne's absence is much clearer and replacing him is the major thought process I am working with ahead of GW20- the options are pretty clear for me as I look for the Manchester City replacements considering their three games coming up over the next week, although I have considered one or two other names.

Those have come from Leicester City (Harvey Barnes, James Maddison and Ayoze Perez look like good options, the last of those looks like being the main replacement for Jamie Vardy who will be back in February).

Another team with some good looking fixtures coming up is Everton and they are looking healthier than they have at any time over the last two months. James Rodriguez would be the main target and with three decent looking games to come, although for now I think I may wait to upgrade other positions with their assets.

There is also a feeling that Everton are going to have a couple of DGWs coming up very soon which will bolster my squad so that is something to keep in mind.

However my lean is with the Manchester City midfielders who have three good fixtures to come and with players in decent form. Bernardo Silva has thrived in the past when KDB has been missing games, while Phil Foden and Ilkay Gundogan are very strong options too which opens the door to upgrading assets in other positions.

The deadline is coming up at 4:30pm on Tuesday and I think it will be a decision I make as close to that time as possible, but my leans are fairly clear.

NFL Championship Game PlayOff Picks 2021 (January 24th)

The 2020 NFL season may have been played during a pandemic, but we are down to the final four as the Championship Games are played this weekend.

It is all credit to the NFL we have gotten here and I know I am grateful to the players for putting themselves out there for our entertainment- I have little doubt how much more difficult life would have been without the breaks given to us by the various sports and the NFL has really been a blessing over the last several months.

We will have a small break after this weekend with the Super Bowl scheduled to be played on Sunday 7th February at Raymond James Stadium and it looks like it is going to be a very strong game regardless of which two teams are going to compete in it.

Last week the NFL Picks had a bounce back week after the really poor showing in the Super Wild Card Round and I do look like completing a very strong season. To be fair it had been a poor run before the Divisional Round when the Picks went 3-1 and I am looking to back it up with the two Championship Games to be played on Sunday before the Super Bowl in two weeks time.

I do think these four teams are the best ones in the NFL and I would be disappointed if either game is a blow out. My feeling is that the Number 1 Seeds will prevail, but both road teams are not to be taken lightly as you will be able to tell when reading my thoughts below.

Before the Super Bowl my plan is to have my first Mock Draft ahead of the NFL Draft which will take place in April. I do think I will be able to create a couple of Mocks before the Draft as the Senior Bowl and Combine news comes out, while I would not be surprised to see some major trade moves made before the Draft takes place.

Teams will look a lot different by the time the NFL rolls back around next September and I am also trying to be as hopeful as possible as to how the 2021 season will look for the fans as well as the players.

My hope would be that fans will be back in greater numbers and that the International Series could be back too which means London will be fortunate to have some live NFL again.

Personally I am also keen on getting over for at least one game next year with the Dolphins playing road games in New Orleans and Las Vegas, and it is these kinds of dreams which can help the days tick along while we are all having difficulties through our day to day lives.

After the positive Divisional Round selections, you can read my Championship Picks below.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: They might not be the top two Seeds in the NFC, but it does feel like the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the best two teams in the Conference at this time in January.

The Buccaneers have had to win two road games against Divisional Winners to earn their spot in the Championship Game and now they are one win away from adding another piece of history to Tom Brady's long list of accolades in the NFL. Winning would mean Brady would be the first Quarter Back to play a Super Bowl in his home Stadium and there is a feeling the Buccaneers have picked up their play as each week has passed in the first with Tom Brady at the team.

After reports Brady and Bruce Arians were not on the same page, wins over the Washington Football Team and the New Orleans Saints have taken the Buccaneers to the Conference Championship Game. When Tom Brady was signed that would have been the minimum expectation for the Buccaneers in the 2020 season and the veteran Quarter Back doesn't look like he has missed a beat even at his advanced age.

Tampa Bay have won six in a row and they humiliated the Green Bay Packers in the regular season, although it did not dent the confidence of the Packers. That defeat was a bad one, but Green Bay finished with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and that means they are the only team in the Conference who have earned a Bye Week and they secured a comfortable home win over the Los Angeles Rams to earn their spot in the Championship Game.

As good as Tom Brady has been, Aaron Rodgers has been playing at MVP level for the Green Bay Packers and that is almost despite the lack of support given to him by the team. If the Packers had picked a top Receiver in the Draft last year I would have had them down as favourites to win the Super Bowl, but Rodgers is playing at an elite level and that is bringing out the best of those around him.

However I do feel just as much credit has to be given to the Green Bay Offensive Line which has been able to dominate the trenches despite the injuries they have picked up over the course of the season. David Bakhtiari is absent, but that did not stop the Packers from running over a very power Los Angeles Defensive Line last week and they have also protected Aaron Rodgers which has allowed the future Hall of Fame Quarter Back ample time to dissect teams down the field.

The battle in the trenches is going to be incredibly fun to watch on this side of the ball- the Packers Offensive Line have bullied teams and opened up big holes for the running game, but this week they are facing a Tampa Bay Defensive Line bolstered by the likely return of Vita Vea who has been activated and is ready to play according to all reports.

His presence on the Defensive Line might just give the Buccaneers a boost having been strong against the run all season, but showing some signs that there was some wear on the players up front. Now having a healthy Vea back will only make it that much more difficult for Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and the Green Bay Offensive Line to have the same kind of success they have been enjoying in recent weeks.

This is the key to the game on this side of the ball- if the Packers can get any kind of a run game going I do think they will open the field for Aaron Rodgers against a Tampa Bay Secondary which has given up some big yards. Last week the Buccaneers were able to expose the deterioration of Drew Brees who looks set to move into retirement, but Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as he has throughout his career.

Stopping Aaron Rodgers is a far bigger challenge than Drew Brees at this stage of their careers and I do think Green Bay will be able to move the sticks through the air. Davante Adams is a big time Receiver for the Packers and he was schemed up to pick up 66 passing yards and a Touchdown in the win over the tough Rams Secondary in the Divisional Round.

Other Receivers have stepped up to make plays for Rodgers when Adams has not been open and I do think Green Bay can have success through the air. The key for Aaron Rodgers is avoiding the turnovers that Tampa Bay used to blow out the Packers in Week 6 of the regular season, but he will feel he is playing at a much better level now and I think Green Bay will have success and find better balance than some may believe in light of the Vita Vea return for the visiting team.

It does sound like it will be cold and possibly snowy in Green Bay at kick off on Sunday, but I think the Packers will be able to at least stay in front of the chains behind this Offensive Line.

Those conditions may not be ideal for teams coming from warmer climates to play in, although Tom Brady has plenty of experience from his time with the New England Patriots. It will be up to his team-mates to show they can cope with what could be difficult field conditions to run on, but Tampa Bay are playing well and their own Offensive Line may feel they can have success if they pick up from where they left off in the Divisional Round.

Namely run the ball.

Leonard Fournette had a strong game against the New Orleans Saints Defensive Line despite the fact the Saints had been playing the run pretty well all season. He backed up the change in pace at Running Back through Ronald Jones and it will be up to the Tampa Bay Offensive Line to try and move people around and give the two Backs a chance of keeping Tom Brady and the entire Offense in front of the sticks.

Stopping the run has been one of the weaknesses of the Green Bay Defensive unit which has played pretty well all season. In the Divisional Round Cam Akers led the Los Angeles Rams to over 5 yards per carry against this Green Bay Defensive Line and it will be important for the Buccaneers to not only keep their own team in third and manageable spots, but also keep Aaron Rodgers freezing on the sidelines by extending drives and controlling the time of possession.

I expect the Buccaneers will have some success with the two Running Backs they will trot out onto the field, but ultimately this game will still come down to Tom Brady and the vast amount of weapons he is working with these days. Antonio Brown looks set to be ruled out which is a blow, but Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are viable threats down the field and will give Tom Brady an opportunity to reach yet another Super Bowl.

They will be facing the power of the Green Bay Defense though with an ever improving Secondary and a decent pass rush up front that may be able to at least rattle the Quarter Back. It won't be easy to get to Brady, but injuries on the Tampa Bay Offensive Line have not cleared up and so the likes of Preston Smith and Za'Darious Smith should be able to at least get Tom Brady to throw the ball quicker than he likes when he is in obvious passing downs.

And then that will be Tom Brady throwing into the Green Bay Secondary which has some serious talent and an ability to at least slow some of the top Receiving options for the veteran Quarter Back. Stopping Tampa Bay completely looks out of the question with the experience they have at Head Coach and Quarter Back, but Green Bay will certainly feel they can do enough on both sides of the ball to eventually earn their place in the Super Bowl.

The elephant in the room has to be that Week 6 game between these teams which saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers score thirty-eight points in a row to erase an early deficit and beat the Green Bay Packers 38-10 at home. The Packers were undone by turnovers that day, but over the years we have seen a number of occasions where the team hosting the Championship Game was beaten in the regular season by their opponent and on the road.

Those teams are 14-8 outright and they are 4-3 against the spread in the last seven after the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Tennessee Titans in that spot last season. Even those that have been blown out (loss by ten or more points) in the regular season game have recovered for a 5-3 against the spread in the Championship Game and that should encourage the Green Bay Packers.

I have to respect Tom Brady and his ability, while Tampa Bay have a decent record as an underdog in recent games in that spot including winning outright last week at the New Orleans Saints. However, the Green Bay Packers are a strong home favourite and they have been a very good team to back in recent PlayOff Games even though Aaron Rodgers is just 2-2 against the spread in his four previous NFC Championship Games.

Two of those losses for Aaron Rodgers have come on the road though and he is a much better Quarter Back at home and I think his Packers team will find the balance to have the edge. Tom Brady is just 6-7 against the spread in his thirteen previous Championship Games with the New England Patriots and I think the Green Bay Packers will find the plays to edge to the win here, although it should be a really good game to watch.

In recent years the team that have won the regular season game have tended to do the same in the Championship Game rematch, but I think there are enough factors to believe the Green Bay Packers can overcome that. The conditions should suit the home team, they should have the superior balance Offensively even with the likely improvement in the Tampa Bay Defensive Line and I think Aaron Rodgers will play well enough at home to avoid the turnovers which have fuelled the Buccaneers in their win the regular season as well as the one over the New Orleans Saints in the SuperDome in the Divisional Round.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The top two Seeds in the AFC have long looked the best teams in this Conference and I think this Championship Game was the more predictable of the two we are going to see on Sunday.

The Kansas City Chiefs were able to hold on to beat the upstart Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round and it was a case of holding on when Patrick Mahomes went down with an injury. That saw the Quarter Back entering the concussion protocol, but Mahomes has been on the practice field all week and he is set to go on Sunday.

That win came after the Chiefs received the one and only Bye Week in the PlayOffs on the AFC side of the bracket towards the Super Bowl. The Chiefs did what they needed to, but the Buffalo Bills have arguably looked more impressive in their wins over the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens, especially the latter victory, although both games were played at home and it is a different ask having to travel to Arrowhead Stadium to earn a big result.

Those wins have been well deserved and the Buffalo Bills have won eight in a row which will give them a confidence boost. They will need all of that to beat the Kansas City Chiefs who may not be dominating teams, but the Super Bowl Champions have won eleven of their last twelve games and the sole loss came in Week 17 of the regular season when they rested key starters.

It will not be the case on Sunday in the Championship Game and there is a hope that important skill players like Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be available with both being limited in practice. Those two players will be important to give the Chiefs a bit more balance Offensively, but the Offensive Line may also be back to full health which is very important to Patrick Mahomes and the entire Chiefs team.

A fully functioning Offensive Line will give the Chiefs an opportunity to establish the run and especially if Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell are ready to play. With Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back you know the Bills will concentrating on shutting down the passing lanes, but that did not work out very well for them when these teams met in the regular season and the Defensive Line have not really been able to contain the run as well as they would have liked in recent games.

The Bills will point out the successes they had against the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round, but they did not respect Lamar Jackson's passing ability as much as they will have to respect what Patrick Mahomes can do and that is a vital difference. It should mean Andy Reid is able to scheme up plays to move the ball on the ground, although I imagine Mahomes is not going to be keeping too often in this one to avoid any more unnecessary hits that could see him knocked out of this game.

Buffalo have a strong Secondary in terms of the pure talent on the roster and a Head Coach who is Defensive minded, but there have been holes in this unit which are sure to be exposed by Patrick Mahomes. If the Bills do decide to contain the run, Mahomes should have a big game and this really is a 'pick your poison' kind of day for Buffalo.

It will mean there is a pressure on the Buffalo Bills Offensive unit to potentially have to keep up in a shoot out and for Josh Allen to show he belongs with the elite Quarter Backs in the NFL. I have to admit I have been largely impressed with the development of Josh Allen in the 2020 season, but he has also been helped by the moves made by the Buffalo Bills which have improved the Receiving options considerably for the young Quarter Back.

Gabriel Davis is not expected to suit up for the Bills, but Stefon Diggs has been huge for them since being traded from the Minnesota Vikings. Cole Beasley, John Brown and Dawson Knox do offer Josh Allen some serious Receiving threats, but Josh Allen will know it will be far from easy against this Kansas City Secondary and he will have to show what he has learned from the regular season game against the Chiefs when Buffalo were held to 206 yards and Allen has just 122 passing yards.

Most of the problems come from the fact that Buffalo have not really run the ball as effectively as they would have liked and that can be a big problem when we get to January. It hasn't cost them so far and Buffalo have looked good, but Josh Allen will need his team to keep him in front of the sticks and his legs will be as important as his arm in this one.

There are some holes on the Kansas City Defensive Line which does allow teams to establish the run, but Buffalo have schemed away from that and it will aid the Chiefs. I still expect Josh Allen to lead some nice drives, but he will be under pressure from the Kansas City pass rush and this is a Chiefs Secondary that are capable of making some big plays when necessary as they showed when stopping the Cleveland Browns on the goal-line before half time in the Divisional Round win.

The feeling is that we are going to get a close game here, but Kansas City have the mental edge having deservedly beaten the Buffalo Bills in the regular season. Now they get to host the AFC Championship Game and they will certainly believe they can build on the 7-2 record teams who won the regular season match up have built in the Championship Game rematch.

On the scoreboard the regular season game was competitive, but Kansas City had over double the total yards of the Buffalo Bills and I still think they have the superior team.

The key is Patrick Mahomes- he has stated he is out of the concussion protocol and will play on Sunday, but if the Chiefs have to go with Chad Henne I am not at all convinced about their chances of winning this game. With Mahomes at Quarter Back I think they will have too much scoring power and especially if the Offensive Line is intact after injuries over the last few weeks.

Buffalo are 7-1-2 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog and they are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten overall which are numbers that have to be massively respected.

At the same time Kansas City have been failing to perform to the level of 'good teams win, great teams cover' as they have not managed to do that in their last four as the home favourite and are just 1-8 against the spread in the last nine overall. That includes failing to cover against the Cleveland Browns in the Divisional Round, but they may have felt their options were greater if Patrick Mahomes had played the whole game.

Even then the Chiefs have not been covering which is a concern, but I think this spread is low enough to be a manageable one for them. Not many teams have gotten the better of the Bills in the 2020 season, but Kansas City handled them really well on the road and I think they are looking pretty healthy right now which will give them the edge.

Buffalo can come again in 2021 with Josh Allen having another year under his belt, but for me the defending Super Bowl Champions will be able to make it repeat, not revenge, in this AFC Championship Game after beating the Bills in the regular season.

Covering small spreads as favourites has not been a winning formula in the last ten seasons with none of the three favourites of less than 3.5 points being able to do that. However I think Patrick Mahoms is an elite Quarter Back which is underlined by his 26-14 record against the spread when favoured by less than double digits and I expect him to come out and dominate this game against a challenger to his throne in Josh Allen.

The team which won the regular season meeting is 5-2 against the spread in Championship Game rematches and I think Kansas City will extend that after the Green Bay Packers get the better of that trend.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Divisional Round: 3-1, + 3.36 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42% Yield)

Wild Card Round: 1-5, - 8.18 Units (12 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)

Week 17: 4-5, - 3.10 Units (18 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)

Week 16: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 15: 3-4-1, - 2.38 Units (16 Units Staked, - 14.88% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 3 Units (16 Units Staked, + 18.75% Yield)

Week 13: 5-5, - 0.82 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.10% Yield)

Week 12: 5-4, + 0.86 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 11: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Week 10: 4-3-1, + 1.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.13% Yield)

Week 9: 2-6, - 8.36 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)

Week 8: 6-2, + 6.60 Units (16 Units Staked, + 41.25% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3-1, + 1.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 7.87% Yield)

Week 6: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

Week 3: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.27% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 7.10 Units (20 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)

Week 1: 6-3-1, + 4.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 23.10% Yield)

Season 2020: 78-63-4, + 13.46 Units (292 Units Staked, + 4.61% Yield)