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Tuesday, 5 July 2016

Wimbledon Tennis Day 9 Picks 2016 (July 5th)

The matches might have looked better on paper than they actually came out on the court on Monday on Centre Court, but I won't be complaining about being at Wimbledon again this year.

I love Fourth Round Monday at Wimbledon and this has always been one of my favourite days of tennis through the course of the season, so having the chance to attend for the second year in succession was not a moment I wanted to miss.

A busy day means I will simply have time to put out my picks from the Ladies Quarter Finals which will be played on Tuesday as the final few days of the tournament get set for the Mens and Ladies Singles matches to be played on alternate days the rest of the way.

Simona Halep-Angelique Kerber three total sets: This looks an intriguing Quarter Final in the bottom half of the draw and the winner of this match between Simona Halep and Angelique Kerber will be favourites to reach the Final on Saturday. Both had impressive Fourth Round wins on Monday and Halep and Kerber are playing some excellent tennis through the draw.

While the grass courts have not seen the best of Halep and Kerber on a consistent basis, both have reached the Semi Final here before so neither should be overawed by the occasion. Halep reached the Semi Final here in 2014, but she has only played in two Grand Slam Quarter Finals since then which is a disappointing record for someone that was expected to win one of these Majors sooner rather than later.

Kerber managed to get to the Semi Final at SW19 in 2012, but she reached just one Quarter Final in her next thirteen Grand Slams and it looked like the best of the German may already have been seen. That was the case until earlier this year when Kerber went to Melbourne and returned with the Australian Open title and she is arguably playing her best tennis since January.

I can see both players having their successes in this one and I do think there will be a few breaks of serve but actually picking a winner looks a tough task and the layers have Kerber as a small favourite showing they are finding it difficult too. It would be a surprise to me if these two are able to separate themselves from the other in straight sets and I think we might need a third set to decide the Semi Finalist from this one.

Venus Williams - 2.5 games v Yaroslava Shvedova: For a little while it looked like Venus Williams might struggle to contend with Carla Suarez Navarro before turning around that Fourth Round match. Now she is looking to reach another Semi Final here as one last run to try and win another Grand Slam title reaches the final few matches to play.

It would still need something special for Venus Williams to win the title here but the grass courts most definitely suit her game. It gives her a chance to attack the net and pressure her opponents, but that won't be easy against Yaroslava Shvedova who is having another strong week at Wimbledon.

Shvedova has previous here having had strong runs to the Fourth Round, but she has broken a barrier by getting into the last eight. She might be Ranked down at Number 96, but Shvedova is a better player than that and her two previous Quarter Final appearances in the French Open as well as the considerable Doubles success she has had should mean she won't be intimidated by Venus Williams.

She has played Serena Williams here before in the Fourth Round and Shvedova was narrowly defeated in that match in the third set. Confidence won't be an issue having won four matches in Wimbledon so far, but Shvedova has been struggling through 2016 and she went 1-3 in warm up matches on the grass. Of course Venus Williams is the oldest player in the draw so how she handles playing on back to back days will be important, but I think her win over Suarez Navarro might just spark her and I think she will be too strong for Shvedova on the day.

Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Serena Williams is playing for the third straight day at Wimbledon, but she has only lost eight games in the last two days which suggests she is rounding nicely into form. Having lost in the Final at the Australian Open and French Open, Serena Williams would love to crack through the glass ceiling and finally match Steffi Graf's 22 Slam titles.

She will recognise the work that she still needs to put in, but Serena Williams looks the strongest player left in the draw and has been playing very well the last couple of Rounds. You can never be sure when Serena will put in a really poor performance, but I am not sure Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova can extract that from her.

The Russian was an impressive winner over Coco Vandeweghe in the Fourth Round on Monday and she might be finally fulfilling some of her potential. The grass courts should suit her game although Pavlyuchenkova is also playing for the third straight day even if she has come through in straight sets each time.

Pavlyuchenkova has a big serve and heavy groundstrokes which should give her a chance to sink her teeth into this match, but I have to be concerned about her movement or struggles in terms of movement. If Serena Williams is serving as well as she has the last two days and hitting the ball as cleanly on the return, she should have the superior movement on the court which doesn't happen as often these days and she can continue her run of dominant wins over this opponent.

Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: Both of these players needed around three hours and sixteen games in the final set of their Fourth Round wins to move through to the Quarter Final. That means a lot of mental effort has been placed into the wins for Dominika Cibulkova and Elena Vesnina and that has to play a part in this one even failing to account for the clear physical effort produced on Monday.

Vesnina was also out for a couple of sets of a Doubles match later in the day and I think the form is pointing towards Cibulkova to move into the Semi Final. She did have a very tough match against Agnieszka Radwanska, but Cibulkova toughed out the win and showed in Eastbourne she can recover physically to produce the goods on the court.

Nine straight wins on a grass court and only two sets dropped (both to Radwanska in Eastbourne and here at Wimbledon) suggests Cibulkova is in tremendous form and I do think her wins have been more impressive than Vesnina's. I do think the latter will have more joy earning cheap points from the serve, but I love the work Cibulkova does on the court and I can see her breaking down and wearing down her opponent in this one.

They have met once before at Wimbledon in 2009 when Vesnina came through in three sets, but I think Cibulkova is an improved player these days. Without the addition of Doubles, I do believe Cibulkova has better recovery time than Vesnina in this one and I believe that might prove to be a difference maker as Cibulkova comes through 75, 64 in this Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep-Angelique Kerber Three Total Sets @ 2.38 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 37-28, + 15.12 Units (130 Units Staked, + 11.63% Yield)


  1. It was expected for Serena Williams to win yesterday's game played in the US Opem 2016. Ranked as #1 in WTA, Serena applied successfully her strengths and scored a well deserved victory against Simona Halep. I am sorry to see S. Halep kicked out of the tournament. She could have performed better; hopefully she will readjust the game strategy for the next tournament.