Gilles Muller v Ivo Karlovic: There is going to be a couple of mental hurdles for Gilles Muller to overcome in the Newport Final, but doing that will give him a chance to win his first ever title on the main Tour. The first is dealing with the Ivo Karlovic serve which can be frustrating at the best of times and the second is overcoming any nerves in trying to win a first main Tour title.
Muller will have recent experience of playing in a Final having reached that position on the grass in Hertogenbosch last month having beaten Karlovic on the way through. His serve was very impressive that day and Muller will need to serve well as he won't have a lot of chances to break serve in this one himself.
Tie-breakers are likely to be the order of the day, but Muller's lefty serve can give him an advantage when it comes to securing points behind serve. That shot naturally goes into the weaker Karlovic wing and the key for both players might be getting off the first shot when they do see any second serves.
Both players have admitted that there is little between them and a few big points will decide the match. However I like the underdog Muller in terms of recent form and I will back him to win his first title at odds against.
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Federico Delbonis: Fabio Fognini played twice on Saturday, winning the Singles Rubber but taking part in the Doubles defeat later in the day. That means the pressure is on Fognini to keep Italy in the tie and force a final Rubber to decide the Semi Final place, but he has thrived in Davis Cup action representing his country.
The destruction of Juan Monaco on Saturday had much to do with Fognini's opponent playing far below the level he usually produces. However that has improved Fognini's Davis Cup record as he gets set for a much more difficult task in beating Federico Delbonis who has a 2-1 head to head advantage over him on the clay courts.
Delbonis played very well in beating Andreas Seppi on Friday and he will be well rested as he looks to secure Argentina's place in the Semi Finals. His lefty serve is a real threat on the clay courts, but managing the crowd will be a difficulty for him despite winning his first away Rubber in the Davis Cup on Friday.
I definitely think this will be a lot closer than Fognini's win over Monaco, but I still think the home favourite can come through. Andreas Seppi wasn't totally at the races in his defeat to Delbonis on Friday, but he came close to getting into a commanding position in that match and I think Fognini will be a little better in a 63, 36, 63, 76 win.
Dusan Lajovic-Kyle Edmund over 38.5 games: This could be the crucial Rubber for Great Britain if they want to continue the defence of the Davis Cup they won last season with the pressure piled on Kyle Edmund to get it done. The performance of James Ward in his Singles defeat on Saturday doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that he can turn that around against Janko Tipsarevic and so Great Britain will be looking at Edmund.
This is going to be a much tougher test for Edmund when he faces Dusan Lajovic who was convincingly better than Ward on Saturday. His best performances come on the clay courts and Lajovic has had some top wins on the surface while also pushing Stan Wawrinka to four sets in a defeat to him in the Second Round of the French Open that Wawrinka eventually won.
Lajovic looked to have plenty of variation in his game on Saturday and the backhand down the line looked very good. However the power looks like it will come from the Edmund side of the court and this looks a fascinating Rubber 4 that has plenty on the line for both nations.
I would be surprised if either player has as 'easy' a time as they did in their first Singles wins. With both Lajovic and Edmund comfortable on the clay courts I am fully expecting this to go at least four sets and it might even develop into a classic five setter. Either way I am looking for the players to combine to cover the total games market and we might also potentially see a final Rubber to decide the winner of the tie.
Marin Cilic - 1.5 games v John Isner: It won't be many times in a players career that they would have lost back to back five set matches while leading 2-0 in sets. That is what Marin Cilic has to deal with, but helping Ivan Dodig win the Doubles Rubber in this Davis Cup tie on Saturday has kept Croatia alive and I think Cilic can get the better of John Isner in this big Rubber 4.
That would bring Croatia back to 2-2 in the tie, although Cilic's defeat to Jack Sock has to have left some mental scars after he blew his chances to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon. Cilic didn't serve well enough in the match with Sock and failing to do better in that department will make it almost impossible to beat a huge server like John Isner who won't give up too many chances on his own serve.
Isner will have some sympathy for Cilic having also been beaten at Wimbledon despite taking the first two sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He at least bounced back by beating Borna Coric comfortably in this tie and Isner was rested for the Doubles which would have been expected to be the last Rubber as the USA can call upon the Bryan Brothers.
He will have his own mental demons to cope with as Isner has lost all five previous matches against Cilic. Those losses include straight set losses in the United States in Miami and Delray Beach, but the two Grand Slam matches have both gone the distance and needed at least sixteen games in the final set to separate them.
I can't imagine this being an easy win for either player, but Cilic can use the fact he has beaten Isner every time they have met to his favour. Even at two sets up it won't be easy for Cilic having blown his last two Singles matches from that position, but I like him keeping this tie alive for the final Rubber.
Jack Sock - 5.5 games v Borna Coric: This final Rubber will only be played if Marin Cilic has been able to beat John Isner like I think he will and that will mean the pressure is on the two young players in the United States and Croatia squads.
I have to say that Jack Sock showed tremendous resolve in coming back from two sets down to beat Cilic on Friday and it is the kind of performance that can jump start his career. However the full effect of that win will only be felt if Sock is able to complete the win for the United States and that is a different kind of pressure for him to deal with as he will be expected to win the match.
He is facing a very talented player in Borna Coric but one who has struggled for consistency on what is a long season on the Tour. Since his run to the Final in Chennai at the start of the season, Coric has had a hard time earning results on the hard courts as his serve can be a little inconsistent which can be devastating on the faster surfaces.
Coric was beaten fairly handily by John Isner on Friday and I think Sock can give him plenty of problems too. Sock will have to serve better than he did in his win over Cilic, particularly the way he served in the first two sets, but I think the American can bring it home for his nation in a 64, 76, 63 win.
Gilles Muller @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic-Kyle Edmund Over 38.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 23-14, + 13.42 Units (74 Units Staked, + 18.14% Yield)