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Sunday, 3 July 2016

Wimbledon Tennis Day 7 Picks 2016 (July 3rd)

For the first time in over a decade and for only the fourth time ever, Wimbledon will have play on 'Middle Sunday' which is usually reserved for rest. There isn't a lot of Singles matches to get through to get this tournament back on track, but it was a pretty bad week in terms of weather and the organisers had no choice but to make sure they have play set for Sunday.

So an extra day of tennis at this time of the season will be welcomed for the fans and there will be a different feel to Wimbledon as we get set to go into the second week. The defeat Novak Djokovic suffered was one of the biggest surprises we have seen, especially at this stage of the tournament, and I don't think we will see anything like that the rest of the event.

It does seem to have opened the door for a number of players to believe they can go all the way and win the title here, although the two favourites are Andy Murray and Roger Federer. We could all hear what the Murray fans thought as they put up a loud cheer when the scoreline of the Djokovic defeat was displayed on Centre Court, while Roger Federer will believe he was the best player in the Wimbledon and US Open tournaments in 2015 who was not named Novak Djokovic.

I am sure there are more twists and turns to come over the next eight days and I am looking forward to those while also hoping that the weather can finally give us the British summer everyone has been waiting for.

On Sunday we have a number of matches that need to be completed from Saturday and the remaining Third Round matches that need to complete this Round. That should mean a chance to have 'Magic Monday' as the organisers have wanted although those players who are successful on Sunday will be back in action twenty-four hours later.

Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 games v Roberta Vinci: It is a strange situation in this Third Round contest as the lower Ranked player is a considerable favourite to beat the higher Ranked one. This shouldn't really be a surprise as the Coco Vandeweghe game looks perfectly suited to the grass compared with Roberta Vinci and I have to say I have been impressed with the American so far.

A booming serve has helped Vandeweghe through the first two Rounds and winning the title in Hertogenbosch was always going to be a confidence booster. She will look to dominate behind serve against Vinci in this Third Round match, although the key might be how she can handle the slice backhand which can stay low on this surface and mean Vandeweghe is trying to play her strike-first tennis from a difficult position immediately.

On the other hand Vinci hasn't had a lot of success on the grass of late and her second serve is likely to be coming into the hitting zone for Vandeweghe. The Italian does have big Grand Slam experience which can be important, but she will do well to stay with Vandeweghe in this one and I can only see the latter being a little too strong in this one.

As long as Vandeweghe can earn enough free points from the serve, I think she is going to have a little too much for Vinci and earn her way through to a 64, 63 win.

Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 games v Sloane Stephens: This looks like being one of the better Third Round matches that will have on Sunday and the layers feel it is a close call between Svetlana Kuznetsova and Sloane Stephens.

Both players have had some difficult moments in the first two Rounds, but I think Sloane Stephens has been unfortunate to have had to play on Saturday and then Sunday. It was a tough grind for Stephens in her Second Round win over Mandy Minella, but she also had to invest a lot of mental energy into the match which was heavily affected by the rain through the day.

That might be a big issue for her going into this early start on Sunday and I think Kuznetsova has show enough in recent weeks to have the edge in this one. The Russian doesn't have the best recent record on the grass, but Stephens also hasn't got the strongest record on this surface.

I can see this being a tight match that doesn't have a lot between them, but I think Kuznetsova has shown more in recent months and that can see her come through those hard moments in the match. I expect Kuznetsova to be stronger physically and mentally in this one and I think she can come through in three sets with a 63, 36, 64 win.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 games v Timea Bacsinszky: I think Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has struggled to take her Junior performances into the pro game mainly because her athleticism is not really at the standard of some of the players on the Tour. While she looks very strong when she can set her feet and have the serve working effectively, getting Pavlyuchenkova on the move really limits the threat she poses.

That is what Timea Bacsinszky will be trying to do to Pavlyuchenkova although her own serve can be something of a weakness which makes this a fascinating Third Round match.

Last season Bacsinszky move through to the Quarter Final here having come off a strong run at the French Open, but she has not been in the same sort of form consistently in 2016. She does have the variation in her game which can cause her opponents some problems, and I think Bacsinszky can have her successes in this one, although I also believe Pavlyuchenkova can penetrate enough with her groundstrokes to make this very competitive.

The key will be trying to impose your style on the other, but I think Pavlyuchenkova can win a set by a considerable margin to at least give herself a chance to cover the number of games being given to her even in a losing effort.

Julia Boserup + 4.5 games v Elena Vesnina: A Belinda Bencic injury helped Julia Boserup move through to the Third Round in what is her breakthrough at the Grand Slam level. Even with that retirement in mind, Boserup has won four matches to get through to the Second Round and she will be confident having already beaten Elena Vesnina in a Qualifier for the Indian Wells Masters.

Boserup looked good in her match with Bencic and she seems to be taking to this level very well although she will need to serve effectively to keep Vesnina at bay. The latter has a pretty powerful game, while her success on the Doubles Tour means the Russian is very comfortable at the net and I think it is important that Vesnina has played Boserup before so won't need to work out what is coming from the other side of the court.

Both players will look to use a big serve to set up their points and heavy groundstrokes will follow those. I was impressed with how both have been playing in the last Round and I think it will be a close match with a few big points likely going to decide the sets.

There is nothing to lose for Boserup in this one, but the key for her is to hold her nerve and play her tennis as she was against Bencic by using her serve to keep Vesnina off balance. The more likely winner is the Russian but I think Boserup can make this a competitive Third Round match and I will take the games at odds against.

Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: I can see this Third Round match being a very interesting one as the last to go onto Centre Court on Sunday. Both players will truly believe they have a chance of winning this match, although they won't have seen their portion of the draw opened up by the Novak Djokovic loss as that was an opponent that they would not have faced until the Final at the earliest.

I really like the way Alexander Zverev approaches the game and I do think he is a top ten player in the making, although it does need some improvement in his movement around the court. The big serve and heavy groundstrokes should be very effective on the grass courts and his form prior to Wimbledon suggested he could be one of the young guns that could make their breakthrough at Grand Slam level.

However, I also think Tomas Berdych has had two excellent wins this week against two players who have been solid on the grass courts. It is a strange situation that Berdych has struggled on the grass courts since reaching the Final at Wimbledon in 2010 when you think of the way he plays tennis, but I don't think Berdych is that comfortable with his own movement on this surface.

I can see a situation where both players take a set off the other, but I still think Berdych is going to be a little more experienced dealing with this match. The fact Zverev has felt a little hard done by in having to play on back to back days suggests his mind could easily wander if things start going against him and I do like Berdych to cover this number.

MY PICKS: Coco Vandeweghe - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Boserup + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 26-21, + 7.24 Units (94 Units Staked, + 7.70% Yield)


  1. great picks, thanks

  2. great picks dav! fantastic day

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