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Wednesday, 6 July 2016

Wimbledon Tennis Day 10 Picks 2016 (July 6th)

It was a disappointing Quarter Final day for the picks yesterday as they went 1-3, but it could have been all so different if there had been a little more luck going my way.

The two Ladies Semi Finals look like they might be interesting with the form the four players are in, but I can't help feel that Wimbledon as a whole has been something of a disappointment in 2016. The Mens Quarter Finals look a poor line up on Wednesday, but I am still hopeful we are going to see some really good matches to end the event here.

Even the Fourth Round was something of an anti-climax with two of the eight Mens matches ending early thanks to retirements and the likes of Roger Federer and Andy Murray coming through very easily against what looked dangerous opponents for them to face on paper. We did have a couple of top five setters, but the loss of Novak Djokovic has been a big blow to the entire draw.

The Andy Murray match with Nick Kyrgios was the big talking point of the day and especially the way the latter failed to produce his best tennis beyond the first eleven games. Kyrgios has been criticised by many for the perceived lack of effort he put into the match, and he was open enough to admit he struggled to cope mentally in that match.

I don't care that Kyrgios admitted he doesn't love tennis as he has said that before and he isn't the first player who has reached a very high profile to have that feeling.

I do think Kyrgios needs to just knuckle down and work out what he wants from the game- he doesn't have to love tennis to want to be as successful as he can be playing it, but I can't imagine he will spend a long time dominating the sport. He can definitely make a few adjustments to his game to be a Grand Slam winner including finding a way to get more out of his forehand to back up a booming serve and improving his returning, but he won't be someone who wins multiple Slams unless he can find the motivation to get out there and put in a lot of effort on a weekly basis.

I am a fan of the Australian and I really hope he 'gets it' soon, but there is plenty of work to do to change from someone who might reach the second week of Slam events to someone who can actually beat the top guys and win these titles.

On Wednesday it is the time for the Men to take over the top two show courts and get through their Quarter Final matches. Hopefully those matches can produce the fireworks that have been lacking at times through the Mens draw at Wimbledon this year.

Roger Federer-Marin Cilic over 38.5 games: This is the first time since Marin Cilic destroyed Roger Federer in the US Open Semi Final in 2014 that these players will face one another. That was the first time Cilic had beaten Federer in his career and I expect the Croatian to give the former World Number 1 a significant examination in this Quarter Final.

The layers have been impressed with the way Roger Federer has come through the draw, but I am not convinced he is healthy enough to go on and win this tournament. He might not have a better chance to win an 18th Grand Slam title, but Federer knows Cilic is unlikely to be as intimidated by his presence on the other side of the net as his previous opponents have been.

Federer is yet to drop a set here and has rarely been tested since his opening match against Guido Pella. I don't think that will be the case this time as he faces an opponent who is very comfortable on the grass and has the kind of game that can give Federer plenty to think about.

If Cilic is serving well, Federer could be put under immense pressure through this match and will have to dig deep to overcome a stubborn opponent. However anything less and Cilic's chances of an upset deteriorate significantly, but I am expecting a competitive four set match in this one. I can see a situation where Cilic might even win this match, but my overall feeling is that these players should have enough to combine over the total games.

Sam Querrey-Milos Raonic over 43.5 games: I didn't think Sam Querrey would have enough in the tank to recover emotionally from a very important win over Novak Djokovic. However the American surprised me with another big display in beating Nicolas Mahut and now Querrey is looking to extend what is already his best performance at a Grand Slam in his career.

The game is there for Querrey to be successful on the grass, especially when he is serving as well as he has been so far in this tournament. He has looked very good after coming back from two sets down to beat Lukas Rosol in the First Round here and Querrey has proven himself in the past on the grass courts when winning the title in Queens which is generally won by the very best grass court players.

Serving big will give him a chance of beating Milos Raonic in this Quarter Final, but the latter might also have turned a big corner in his career after coming from two sets down to win a match for the first time against David Goffin. The Canadian also has the booming serve which makes him a danger on this surface and he was a set and a break up against Andy Murray at Queens last month which would have given him confidence to take into the tournament at Wimbledon.

Their previous match at Wimbledon in 2012 saw the first three sets all go to tie-breakers and this match has the makings of another tight one. I would expect these players to produce at least four sets and I can't see too many breaks of serve through the contest which should lead to this number of games being exceeded, especially with the serve that both possess and limited return games.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win a set v Andy Murray: As soon as Novak Djokovic was knocked out of the draw, most would have set Andy Murray as a strong favourites to progress to the Final and win a second Wimbledon title. He had already been given a favourable draw and Murray has made straight-forward work of every player he has met so far.

I did think Nick Kyrgios was going to give Murray more to think about than he eventually did, but the Australian fell away after losing the first set. That shouldn't be the case for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is one of the better grass court players and should be physically ready to go having been able to move through the Fourth Round after playing just six games against an injured Richard Gasquet.

That is important for Tsonga after being pushed to the limit by John Isner in the Third Round on Sunday, but the Frenchman will know all about the challenge that Murray offers. Last year they met on the grass in the Davis Cup and Tsonga was close to making a real match of things in the first two sets before falling away once in a two set deficit and I do think he can just tighten up at the wrong time in a set against a returner as good as Murray can be.

I think Tsonga might be the last big obstacle in Murray's way to win a title here and the feeling is that he has enough to challenge the Number 2 Seed. Murray might have won five in a row on the grass against Tsonga, but last year was the first time he has managed to do that in straight sets and I think the Frenchman is under-rated to take a set in this one at odds against. A strong serving display from Tsonga will give him every chance to do that in one of the first two sets and I will back that to happen in this Quarter Final.

Tomas Berdych-Lucas Pouille over 37.5 games: Both Tomas Berdych and Lucas Pouille had to come through tough five setters in the Fourth Round to reach this Quarter Final, but they should have had enough rest at this point to recover in time for this match. These players will be meeting for the first time and I think both will have plenty of reasons to believe they can move onto the Semi Final.

It is strange to think that Lucas Pouille had not won a main Tour match on the grass courts before Wimbledon. Here he has beaten the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro and Bernard Tomic which suggests the Frenchman is going to be anything but an easy out for Tomas Berdych who has not been the most consistent on the surface since reaching the Final here in 2010.

Berdych was considerably pushed by Jiri Vesely in the Fourth Round and he has only won one of his four matches in straight sets. In half of those matches he would have combined to surpass this number of games and Pouille has impressed with his serving and returning so far this week in what has been a memorable tournament for him.

The question is how much Pouille has left in the tank after needing eighteen games in the final set on Monday to see off Tomic. He will be put under some scoreboard pressure by the Berdych serve, but I think he is good enough to push this one to four sets and that should give these players a chance to surpass this number especially if we see at least one tie-breaker between two players who are serving well.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer-Marin Cilic Over 38.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey-Milos Raonic Over 43.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to Win a Set @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych-Lucas Pouille Over 37.5 Games @ 1.85 Betway (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 38-33, + 8.94 Units (140 Units Staked, + 6.39% Yield)

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