Weekend Football Picks 2014 (November 29-30)

Last weekend was a huge result for Manchester United as they beat one of the top teams in England and a definite rival for a place in the top four which remains the absolute minimum expectation for Louis Van Gaal this season.

While some, Gary Neville for instance, was convinced United deserved their win with a 'second goal coming' ever since United made it 0-1, I was happier that the side could ride their luck a little and manage to secure a vital away win, the first of the season.

With a little more composure in the final third and better finishing, Arsenal would likely have had the lead way before Antonio Valencia's deflected effort went in just before the hour mark. Manchester United didn't have a shot on target until after they had gone 0-1 up, and I am still not convinced United would have had enough to come back and win the game if they had fallen behind in the first half hour. In all honesty, I think Arsenal may have pushed on and won the game from that point.


Still, United secured a vital three points which should give the team plenty of confidence although I was quite interested to read a small piece in one of the national newspapers that compared Manchester United to the Netherlands team in the World Cup.

It was interesting because I said that is who United reminded me of when watching the game at Arsenal- both teams had put a number of bodies in the way to try and hide the deficiencies at the back and then hope the magic up front can produce a winning result.

For Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder use Angel Di Maria and Wayne Rooney and I don't know if that will ever be good enough to remain competitive in a full season rather than a short tournament that the World Cup is.


The good news was hearing Louis Van Gaal talk about wanting to boss games a little more and to beat teams more easily than Manchester United have been doing so far this season. That satisfied me because it is clear the manager wants to see United improve their control of games which has seen too many end with United hanging on a touch and winning by the minimum margin. Van Gaal clearly doesn't want that either so it will be good to see United put that into action over the next couple of games as they host Hull City and Stoke City in the next few days.


One major bookmaker has already paid out on Chelsea winning the Premier League this season- I would love to know what kind of payout that was or if that is nothing more than a publicity stunt no matter how well Chelsea have played so far to this point.

While I think they are strong favourites to win the title, if Manchester City can go on a run over the festive period of winning 6 of 7 or win 8 in a row as Manuel Pellegrini has suggested they do, Chelsea may see their lead trimmed very quickly. Every team has a blip in the course of a season and Chelsea have yet to have theirs, while long-term injuries to either Diego Costa or Cesc Fabregas would put more pressure in Jose Mourinho's men.

Favourites yes... But I am not close to crowning Chelsea as Champions with less than a third of the season in the books.


West Brom v Arsenal Pick: This looks like a game that could open the Premier League weekend in entertaining style for those who are going to be watching on television and I would be surprised if we don't see a few goals in the game.

As strong as Arsenal have looked going forward, they still seem very vulnerable defensively and those are areas that West Brom may be able to exploit with the speed they have in their own forward positions. The home team will also be able to play on the counter-attack at times with Arsenal expected to have the majority of the possession and that also seems to suit West Brom a little more.

However, West Brom won't get much out of this game if they don't improve defensively themselves after a couple of pretty poor performances on that front. Chelsea could have scored as many as they liked last week, while West Brom have conceded at least twice in 6 of their 8 home games this season in all competitions. Oxford United from League Two are one of the sides that didn't reach that number and Arsenal are certainly capable of doing that this weekend.

On the other hand, West Brom have scored at least twice in 4 of their 6 home games in the Premier League and with the defensive problems that Arsenal have shown, they must feel they will be able to perhaps extend that run.

Last season saw these sides draw twice at the Hawthornes by the same 1-1 scoreline, but the previous 5 League games between them here have seen at least three goals scored and I am expecting goals this weekend.


Liverpool v Stoke City Pick: It seems the layers are beginning to doubt what Liverpool are bringing to the table as they are quite a big price to beat Stoke City, although this has been a tough Premier League fixture for the home team in recent years.

There have been so many things wrong at Liverpool this season with the defence continuing to make the mistakes that are costing the team too many goals, while losing Daniel Sturridge to injury and Luis Suarez to Barcelona has destroyed the free-scoring team this was last season.

It was never going to be easy to replace those goals that those two strikers produced, but the signings of Mario Balotelli and Rickie Lambert looked very shaky anyway and neither has produced enough. Lambert may be turning a corner with goals in his last two games and this is the kind of game where his physical strength can help Liverpool, but Stoke City have produced a couple of big away wins already this season and will feel they can do the same here.

I would be concerned with the injuries they are dealing with and the illness that has spread through the squad and that might be a problem if tiredness and fatigue affects them as the game goes on. Stoke have been able to score goals away from home, but they have also been conceding too many of late with both Sunderland and Queens Park Rangers scoring at least twice against them.

Not many would be surprised if Stoke City scored in this game themselves, but I do think Liverpool can build on what they earned in Bulgaria and I believe the home side can win a game that could see both teams score at least once.


Manchester United v Hull City Pick: One thing that has noticeably been changing in recent Manchester United games compared to some of the earlier ones is the performances in the last fifteen matches of games. Initially that was where the team seemed to tire and give opponents a chance to get back into games and create chances, but Manchester United have turned that around in the last few weeks.

Manchester United scored late goals to salvage draws against West Brom and Chelsea, while they could have gotten something late from the Manchester derby. They also scored late goals against Arsenal and had chances to extend the lead against Crystal Palace as the game wore on and that can only mean good things for Manchester United.

Aside from the game against Queens Park Rangers, Manchester United haven't really won games by comfortable margins at Old Trafford, but there has been some extenuating circumstances for that in my opinion. Against West Ham United, Manchester United were playing with ten men for the last half hour, while the side hit the post and had a couple of half-chances to extend that lead against Crystal Palace.

A game against a Hull City side that might be short of confidence should give Manchester United a chance to win this game fairly comfortably even though Steve Bruce's side have made life tough for teams they have played this season. Hull have earned draws at Arsenal and Liverpool, but Manchester United have a lot of firepower and seem to be getting healthier in defensive positions.

Hull City might have conceded just one goal in their last 2 away games, but had conceded at least twice in 4 consecutive games on their travels before that and Manchester United have momentum behind them. Manchester United have been able to score plenty of goals against Hull City in recent games and I think they win this by at least two goals.


Queens Park Rangers v Leicester City Pick: There is no doubt to me that this is one very important game for both Queens Park Rangers and Leicester City and there seems to be a little more momentum behind the home team.

The results might not have been there in terms of wins for Queens Park Rangers, but they shouldn't have lost to Liverpool at home and were just ten minutes from beating Manchester City here too. Goals haven't been a problem for QPR, especially at home, and Charlie Austin is a striker on form to the extent that some are calling for an England call up.

Leonardo Ulloa, on the other hand, hasn't been doing the business for Leicester City despite a fast start to the season and has been one of the reasons that the Foxes haven't scored in the last five games. Leicester City have also conceded at least two goals in 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League and that could be a problem when they visit this part of West London where Queens Park Rangers have been playing pretty well in recent weeks.

Leicester City did beat Queens Park Rangers twice last season which should give them confidence, but they will need to start scoring goals and that makes it hard to really trust them on current form. With QPR scoring at least twice in their last 4 home games and Leicester conceding plenty of goals in recent weeks, I am sure the home team will have their supporters for the win this week.

The lack of wins puts me off backing QPR to do that and instead I will back them to hit at least two goals again- they have done that in failing to beat Stoke City, Liverpool and Manchester City and while it should be enough to win this game, it is virtually the same price as Rangers winning this game and I think it provides better value in this game.


West Ham United v Newcastle United Pick: Two teams that have played some attacking football of late with pace and power meet on Saturday and I can't imagine either Sam Allardyce or Alan Pardew will want to settle for a draw in this one.

That should mean there are goals in the game with both teams showing an ability to create chances in recent weeks. The returning players for West Ham United will certainly make a difference for a team that should really have earned a lot more than the one point from the last two games that they have picked up.

West Ham played well against Aston Villa at home and at Everton and they will create chances against a Newcastle team that has a couple of defensive issues coming into the weekend. On the other hand, the pace in the forward positions for Newcastle are likely to give a Winston Reid-less defence some issues too and it is something that the Magpies have scored twice in their last three away games.

This is also a fixture that has regularly produced a fair few goals and 7 of the last 9 at Upton Park between these teams have seen at least three goals shared by the sides.

Add in the fact that 4 of the last 5 West Ham United home games and 4 of the last 7 Newcastle United away games have seen at least three goals scored and I think the layers are under-estimating the chances of there being at least three goals shared between these teams this weekend.


Sunderland v Chelsea Pick: As I said above, some are already paying out on Chelsea winning the Premier League title this season, but there are plenty of tough tests still remaining and Sunderland were one of the bogey teams for Chelsea last season.

Sunderland beat Chelsea 2-1 in the League Cup Quarter Final and also beat them 1-2 at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League, a result that effectively ended Chelsea's title challenge last season, and you have to think they will at least give this a right go.

The Stadium of Light hasn't been a good venue for Sunderland against Chelsea in the Premier League as they have lost 9 straight times at home against the Blues. The win in the League Cup snapped that run, but this is a Chelsea team playing with a lot of confidence and have plenty of goals in the side.

The Black Cats have only lost 1 of their last 4 home games in all competitions, but they haven't faced the best teams in the Premier League in that stretch outside of Arsenal who were the team to beat them. I expect Chelsea to win this game, but Sunderland shouldn't be intimidated by them having beaten them the last two times they have played each other.

I do think Sunderland give this a go and there is a remarkable trend that needs following in this one for me- Chelsea have won their last 6 League games here where both teams have scored and 8 of their last 9 wins at the Stadium of Light have also involved both teams scoring. Add in the fact that both teams have scored the last 5 times Sunderland and Chelsea have played one another and I think that might be the most effective way to back the away side to continue their strong form in the Premier League.


Southampton v Manchester City Pick: Will that Sergio Aguero hat-trick against Bayern Munich be the turning point when it comes to Manchester City's season? They have every chance of progressing to the Last 16 in the Champions League thanks to their 3-2 win over Bayern Munich, but Manchester City will want to try and use that momentum into the Premier League as they look for a third consecutive win.

However, David Silva remains absent and now they travel to Southampton who have been one of the surprise packages in the Premier League and who feel this game sets a standard for them for the rest of the season. While most are not ready to believe Southampton are a candidate for a top four berth, the next three games against Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United will make it clear as to what the Saints are capable of achieving.

Southampton have won 5 straight Premier League games at St Mary's and they have some pace and quality in the final third to really cause this Manchester City defence some problems. They have also been very strong themselves when it comes to defensive performances with only 1 goal conceded at home in the League all season, but Manchester City have the likes of Yaya Toure, Jesus Navas, Samir Nasri and Sergio Aguero who can create chances and score goals.

The away side have scored at least two goals in 6 of their 8 away games played in all competitions and Manchester City have a bit of momentum behind them.

Picking a winner looks very tough, but this is a game that could produce goals at both ends and I do think we will see at least three goals scored in the first of the Sunday live games this weekend.

MY PICKS: West Brom-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Liverpool to Win @ 3.70 Coral (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Queens Park Rangers Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.38 William Hill (2 Units)
West Ham United-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Chelsea to Win @ 3.50 William Hill (1 Unit)
Southampton-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November Update: 14-16, - 0.95 Units (57 Units, - 1.67% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 28-58, - 36.99 Units (139 Units Staked, - 26.61% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)