Add in the drop for the Florida State Seminoles from Number 2 to Number 3 and TCU Horned Frogs being placed in the top four ahead of the Baylor Bears and there have been a lot of people stunned by the release of the latest Rankings.
Most would have expected Alabama to be the team to replace Auburn in the top four of the Rankings after the Tigers were beaten by the Texas A&M Aggies at home, while Baylor hold the tie-breaker against TCU in the Big 12 but that doesn't seem to be relevant at the moment.
I can't see that remaining the case if both TCU and Baylor win out, while Alabama won't be overly concerned knowing they can run the table and will be secured their place in the Play Off. The Oregon Ducks and Florida State Seminoles both have their destiny in their own hands and look almost certain to be on a collision course in the first Play Off Semi Final, while teams like the Mississippi State Bulldogs have a huge week coming up to see if they have a genuine chance of making the Play Off.
As we go on with the remainder of the regular season during this month, the final four situation will clear up and the Committee will be getting closer to making their final judgements.
Week 11 proved to be the best week I have had in the College Football season so far and it is one that I will be looking to build upon through the rest of the month. I finally got a bit of luck that I was looking for, which was highlighted by the Utah-Oregon game when Kaelin Clay dropped the ball short of the end zone when going in for an easy score. That was then taken the opposite way for an Oregon Touchdown and Utah never really got back into their groove and it was clearly a play that went my way.
You can't expect that kind of luck every week, but I have had some bad breaks and that did at least raise a smile and the feeling of 'finally' something 'crazy' going my way.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick: Coming off a big road win against the Michigan State Spartans is a tough position for the Ohio State Buckeyes to be in, but the fact that the Minnesota Golden Gophers are flying high should keep them focused on the task at hand.
If the Buckeyes are sore or feeling a little emotionally fatigued, it will be tough to stop Minnesota on the ground, but if Ohio State win that battle in the trenches, they will likely force mistakes from Mitch Leidner at Quarter Back if he is asked to throw to move the chains.
JT Barrett and Ezekiel Elliot should help the Buckeyes find a way to establish their own ground game in this one, despite Minnesota's positive run Defense, especially if they can match how the TCU Horned Frogs took advantage. Barrett's ability to throw the ball downfield means Minnesota have to have respect for the Ohio State passing Offense too and can't load the box and I think the Buckeyes will take control of the game.
They have dominated Minnesota in recent games in the series, including winning 12 straight on the road by 17 points per game. Ohio State are also looking for big wins to prove they belong in the College Football Play Off that is decided in the next few weeks and they have been dominant in their last 7 wins except for the road win at Penn State which ended up closer than it should have been.
The Buckeyes are 6-4 against the spread as the road favourite over the last three seasons and they have been playing at a very high level since the loss against Virginia Tech. I think that level is too high for Minnesota and Ohio State have a big cover.
Nevada Wolfpack @ Air Force Falcons Pick: The home team has won the last two games in the series between these teams, although this is a bigger game for the Nevada Wolfpack who lead the Mountain West West Division. The Air Force Falcons could get involved in the race for the Mountain West Mountain Division, but they have lost to a number of their rivals in that Division where Colorado State, Boise State and Utah State have all lost just 1 Conference game.
Boh teams will look to run the ball and I think Air Force will be the more consistent when it comes to that aspect of the game, although Nevada do have the better success throwing the ball. However, the Falcons have a Defense that has been decent against the run and get a lot of pressure through their pass rush and that could determine the game.
Nevada have been strong coming off a bye week and Air Force have not been a great favourite which does concern me, but the Falcons have been playing very well and I like their chances at home. The Wolfpack also face a huge game against the Fresno State Bulldogs next which can decide their Division and they could overlook this game a little.
TCU Horned Frogs @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: After all the emotion of snapping their 8 game losing run in Big 12 play, Kansas fans might not be as full of joy once this game with the TCU Horned Frogs is completed. The last two games have been close ones, but the Horned Frogs are a much improved Offense these days with the new spread formation working perfectly to Trevone Boykin's strengths at Quarter Back.
Boykin and the Horned Frogs should punish Kansas on the ground and he will also make plenty of big throws and it will be tough for the Jayhawks to slow them down. With a reason to try and impress the Committee voting for the final four in the Play Offs, this isn't a game that TCU will want to take lightly and they will look for an impressive win to keep themselves ahead of the Baylor Bears.
Kansas did score 34 points, the most since their opening game, last week, but this TCU Defense is under-rated and they can shut down the run and force Michael Cummings to make plays from third and long. Cummings has played well at Quarter Back, but he will be dealing with a lot of pressure in his face and that has helped the TCU Secondary make plays and turn the ball over.
The Horned Frogs should dominate this game despite coming off a tough run and I think TCU blow out Kansas and look to match the 46 point win Baylor had over them at home.
Memphis Tigers @ Tulane Green Wave Pick: The Memphis Tigers can remain at the top of the American Athletic Conference with another Conference win over the Tulane Green Wave, a team they have beaten 7 times in a row by an average of 22 points per game.
The Tigers could find a way to slow down the Tulane Offense and they can turn the ball over with those extra possessions could prove to be the reason they are able to pull away for a big win.
Memphis have been dominating opponents in recent games and they should be able to run the ball fairly effectively which will open up the passing lanes and allow them continue their recent success against Tulane. The Tigers do see this as their biggest obstacle left in the AAC and I think they will remain focused and thus have a little too much quality on both sides of the ball.
Washington Huskies @ Arizona Wildcats Pick: The Washington Huskies have just hit the buffers in this 2014 season and they have dropped 4 of their last 6 games, while they have been beaten by the best teams in the Pac-12.
The Arizona Wildcats are certainly part of the mix and will look to emulate what UCLA, Arizona State, Oregon and Stanford have done already over the last few weeks. Defeats to UCLA and USC have left Arizona outside of the Pac-12 South Division race, but they can at least keep up with the teams ahead of them if they slip up by winning this game.
Arizona will be expecting to have the more consistent success moving the chains and they should be able to punish a Washington Secondary that has lost some key players for discipline reasons and one that has already given up 278 passing yards per game.
There have been times the Wildcats haven't played that well on the Defensive side of the ball, but Washington have still been trying to find an identity Offensively and Arizona should prove too good and beat then Huskies for the fourth time in a row at home.
Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: This is a game that could decide which of these teams is going to play in the College Football Play Off later this season and this should be a really close and fascinating game.
Dak Prescott will be leading the way for the Heisman Trophy if he can lead Mississippi State to the win in this tough environment, but I think it will be difficult for the Quarter Back if the Alabama Defense is as strong as it has been.
There is the chance that Alabama have been worn down by the game by the LSU Tigers last week which could lead to a tired Defense that can't handle the pounding that Mississippi State will bring, but I still think the Crimson Tide will have too much success from their own Offense.
The Mississippi State Secondary has struggled in pass coverage and Blake Sims should have a big day linking with Amari Cooper through the air. That could only be helped by the powerful Alabama rushing Offense and that should help the Crimson Tide win this game and get into the top four for the first time this season.
Auburn Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs Pick: I don't know how the Auburn Tigers are going to pick themselves from a devastating home loss against the Texas A&M Aggies when they fumbled twice in Aggies territory as the game was winding down. That has ended their chances of finishing in the Play Off places this time and I am not sure if the players will be feeling that great about being pounded by the returning Todd Gurley and the Georgia Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs might not be making their push for a Play Off place, but they can still win the SEC East and getting into the Conference Championship Game.
Both Defenses have played the run effectively, but the Auburn Secondary has struggled to prevent the big play from occurring through the air and that might be the key to this one, even if Gurley is going to lead a strong running game for the Bulldogs.
The emotional factor is hard to ignore and I think the Bulldogs have enough motivation to beat Auburn even if the Tigers are the better team.
Texas Longhorns @ Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: The road team has won the last five games in the series and the Texas Longhorns can certainly have that trend continue and also make themselves Bowl eligible in Charlie Strong's first season as Head Coach.
The Longhorns have been playing far better than the Oklahoma State Cowboys in recent weeks and they can ride their Defense to another win this week. Texas have felt better with Tyrone Swoopes at Quarter Back as he has earned more experience through playing time over the last few weeks since David Ash decided to retire from football.
Texas may also have more success throwing the ball than they have experienced through the season especially against a Cowboys Secondary that has allowed a lot of big plays and I think Texas will be a little too good for Oklahoma State who have already reached six wins for the season.
LSU Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: Unsurprisingly, the majority of the public are backing the LSU Tigers after seeing how close they came to upsetting the Alabama Crimson Tide in Death Valley in Week 11. However, I think the Arkansas Razorbacks might not have too many better opportunities to snap their 17 game losing run in the SEC, especially with the conditions likely to suit them down to the ground.
Both teams have enjoyed running the ball, but the Arkansas Defense has been a little better than the LSU one in slowing down that aspect of an Offense. With snow expected, it might not be easy to throw the ball, but Anthony Jennings wouldn't exactly have the Razorbacks worrying too much about aerial plays and the Razorbacks can at least force some drives to be stalled.
On the other hand, I am not sure how a Defense that put in as much effort as the did in Week 11 will be able to deal with the pounding that Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins will be putting on them. Both players have helped Arkansas move the ball at 5.7 yards per clip and it could be a big ask for LSU to slow them down.
Add in the fact that the LSU Tigers would have put in a huge physical and emotional effort in their loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide and that this game arguably means more to Arkansas and I like the home team to win and cover. Add in that LSU are just 3-6 against the spread in their road games over the last three seasons and I do believe the Razorbacks could upset the public perception.
Michigan State Spartans @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: The home loss against the Ohio State Buckeyes has ended Michigan State Spartan's chances of making it to the final four Play Off and it has also likely ended their chances of winning the Big Ten Conference.
They will have to pick themselves up from that devastating loss but I think the Spartans are a hard nosed team that will be too good for the Maryland Terrapins and look to set a marker for the next season. It isn't easy off a big loss, but Mark Dantonio and the Spartans are 3-2 against the spread off a Conference loss over the last three seasons.
Michigan State should be able to run and throw the ball against this Maryland Defense and that consistency could be tough to contain for the Terrapins.
The Terrapins can look at the blueprint that Ohio State set out last week in their win over Michigan State, but CJ Brown isn't as good as JT Barrett and Maryland have not been playing that well down the stretch to think they can cause a surprise. The Terrapins also haven't been that good off a bye where they are 3-11 since 2004 and have lost those games by 20 points per game.
I also expect the Spartans Defense to play in a bid to prove they are better than what Ohio State saw last week and I like Michigan State to cover.
Florida State Seminoles @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: I am really looking forward to this game on Saturday evening and I am not surprised that the layers are so down on the Florida State Seminoles considering some of their performances this season. This team is not as good as the 2013 edition and they have been fortunate to have had Jameis Winston at Quarter Back making some big plays to lead the Seminoles back from some games they could have easily lost.
The impressive form of the Miami Hurricanes with three straight wins and a bye week to prepare for this game has given them what looks a perfect storm for them to cause a surprise and upset the Number 3 Ranked team.
Brad Kaaya will make some big plays for Miami and the Hurricanes are 7-2 against the spread when that number is set between a Field Goal as an underdog and favourite. However, I still think the Seminoles have that winning mentality to find a way to win games they perhaps shouldn't and Jameis Winston has dragged his teammates through.
Jimbo Fisher would have drilled into his players the lack of respect Florida State have been given by being dropped in the Rankings and Winston is also sounding more focused after admitting his turnovers have hurt the team. Those two emotions combined could lead Florida State to their best performance of the season and I am not 100% convinced with this Miami Hurricanes team.
It's not a big spread which will tempt people in, but I do think the Seminoles win this game and put another step towards earning one of the four Play Off berths.
Arizona State Sun Devils @ Oregon State Beavers Pick: The Arizona State Sun Devils rode their luck a little to see off the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 11 and they can now be considered a team that could potentially crack the top four in the Play Off by winning the Pac-12.
This is a tough game against the Oregon State Beavers, but the Beavers have lost 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6 games and I think the Sun Devils will be able to run the ball very effectively which can set them up for a big road win.
Oregon State will struggle to establish their own ground game and Sean Mannion has struggled for consistency throwing the ball, especially as he has been faced with a lot of pressure from an Offensive Line that is having a hard time in protection. The Sun Devils should be able to do the same and force the Oregon State possessions to stall and give themselves a chance to go through and earn a big road win.
The Sun Devils are 6-2 against the spread as the road favourites over the last three seasons and they are playing an Oregon State team that are just 1-4 against the spread at home. Todd Graham went for style points against Notre Dame so I can't see him slowing down the Arizona State Offense either and I like them to win this one and cover.
MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Air Force Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs - 28 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Memphis Tigers - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats - 10 Points @ 1.95 Betway (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks - 1 Point @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 11 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 7 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Week 11: 9-4, + 4.34 Units (13 Units Staked, + 33.38% Yield)
Week 10: 6-7, - 1.51 Units (13 Units Staked, - 11.62% Yield)
Week 10: 6-7, - 1.51 Units (13 Units Staked, - 11.62% Yield)
Week 9: 4-9-1, - 5.31 Units (14 Units Staked, - 37.93% Yield)
Week 8: 5-7, - 2.26 Units (12 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
Week 7: 3-8, - 5.31 Units (11 Units Staked, - 48.27% Yield)
Week 6: 2-7, - 5.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 57% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 1.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 12.56% Yield)
Week 4: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)
Week 3: 3-7-1, - 4.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 38% Yield)
Week 2: 5-6, - 1.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 10.72% Yield)
Week 1: 6-4, + 1.77 Units (10 Units Staked, + 11.7% Yield)
Season 2014: 47-62-2, - 19.32 Units (124 Units Staked, - 15.58% Yield)
Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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