ATP World Tour Finals Day 6 Picks 2014 (November 14)

It took an alternative to help produce the first really competitive game of the ATP World Tour Finals as David Ferrer at least pushed Kei Nishikori to a third set before eventually succumbing and allowing the Japanese star to eventually move through to the Semi Final. That was only confirmed after Roger Federer completely dismantled Andy Murray in the evening match, another to finish before an hour is hit on the clock, as the World Number 2 lost just one game in two sets.

That seems to have set up the potential for the Roger Federer-Novak Djokovic Final that most would have been looking forward to when the tournament rolled around, but I still think Kei Nishikori or Stan Wawrinka (who I believe qualifies as you will see) can pose some problems for the top two indoor players in the world.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Tomas Berdych: If Tomas Berdych serves well, he can certainly give Novak Djokovic something to think about that Stan Wawrinka and Marin Cilic have not been able to do, but that is a big IF on current form. Berdych didn't serve brilliantly in either match he has played so far and these conditions won't be favourable unless he gets a high percentage of first serves in play and even that is no guarantee with the way Djokovic has been returning.

Berdych will also have to try and avoid thinking about the last time he faced Djokovic when he was very fortunate to escape a double bagel in the Beijing Final and this does seem a match up that the World Number 1 likes.

I am not surprised he does because Berdych won't really change his game plan too much regardless of how things are going on court and that allows Djokovic to build his rhythm as he likes. Berdych won't suddenly start attacking the net and putting away volleys, but he will look to plug away from the back of the court and I don't see him having a lot of success against Djokovic unless the serve is working to start first strike tennis.

However, Djokovic is a man on a mission that can complete the year as the World Number 1 by winning this match and the Semi Final and then relax for the Final against Roger Federer which is the most likely scenario. Djokovic won't want to lose and risk finishing second in the Group and a pressure filled Semi Final against Federer that could decide the World Number 1 spot and I think he might win another dominant Group match.


Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Marin Cilic: I wasn't that surprised that Milos Raonic decided to pull out of the tournament with a rumoured injury and I do wonder if Marin Cilic will play his final Group game after some of his struggles with his shoulder.

Heavy losses in his first two matches has all but ended Cilic's chances of making it through to the Semi Finals and he has had a hard time holding on to serve which could be a big problem against Wawrinka.

At the end of the day, Wawrinka might not be playing great tennis outside of that big performance against Tomas Berdych, but it puts a lot of mental pressure on a player if they feel they can't hold serve which means perhaps pushing too much and making errors. That is my fear for Cilic who has also lost 7 of his previous 9 matches against Wawrinka.

Both of these players will look back at 2014 fondly as first time Grand Slam Champions, but it is Stan Wawrinka who I feel will move through to the Semi Final thanks to a 64, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 7-2, + 10.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 60.22 % Yield)