Top Ten
1) Arizona Cardinals (7-1): Healthy lead in the NFC West and won an important road game at Dallas last week, albeit a Cowboys team led by Brandon Weeden.
2) New England Patriots (7-2): All roads to the Super Bowl could be running through New England which will sound horrific to Peyton Manning as he was bamboozled there not for the first time in Week 9.
3) Philadelphia Eagles (6-2): Overcame loss of Nick Foles, but bigger tests upcoming with Mark Sanchez at Quarter Back.
4) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3): Pennsylvania having a great NFL season as Big Ben continues ripping up the record books
5) Denver Broncos (6-2): Bad, bad loss in New England, but still one of the favourites in the AFC.
6) Indianapolis Colts (6-3): Best team in the poor AFC South and play New England soon which could give them a chance to stake a claim for home field advantage.
7) Dallas Cowboys (6-3): Tony Romo can’t come back quick enough as Dallas need to win in London this week.
8) Detroit Lions (6-2): Defense is legit up front, but Atlanta found some holes in the Secondary.
9) Green Bay Packers (5-3): The Packers got away with one as Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t miss any game time after tweaking his hamstring.
10) Miami Dolphins (5-3): Was split between Kansas City and Miami for the final place, but picked my favourite team because the win over New England gives them half a chance to win the AFC East, especially if Defense can keep producing.
Bottom Five
32) Oakland Raiders (0-8): Score in Seattle looked better thanks to the home team miscues and now Oakland get to take on a pissed off Peyton Manning.
31) New York Jets (1-8): Showing little life at the moment and Rex Ryan looks about done as Head Coach.
30) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8): Blake Bortles teething problems heading for London this week.
29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7): Lovie Smith has decided to go back to Josh McCown as the starting Quarter Back, but the Buccaneers have looked bad.
28) Tennessee Titans (2-6): Good luck to Zach Mettenberger who has to face the Baltimore Defense that was embarrassed by the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.
Week 10 Picks
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills Pick: When this line was released at the start of the week, the Kansas City Chiefs were actually the underdog and I really liked them in that position. While I am not as sold as I was then, I still think the Chiefs can beat the banged up Buffalo Bills who could easily be looking ahead to the Thursday Night Football game against the Miami Dolphins.
However, this game has serious Play Off implications between two teams that are 5-3 in the same Conference so I do expect Buffalo to put a full effort in which can't always be said of teams in the week prior to a big Divisional game.
Both Kyle Orton and Alex Smith may get to know the pass rushers of Kansas City and Buffalo respectively very intimately by the time this game is over as both teams will feel their Defenses can live in the backfield. It is the injuries to the likes of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson and a banged up Sammy Watkins that makes me wonder if Orton has enough weapons to find the chains moving consistently and that might give the Chiefs the edge as they do have the luxury of calling upon Jamaal Charles.
Kansas City are 2-1 against the spread as the road favourite of less than a Field Goal over the last three seasons, while Buffalo are in this spot where they do have a short week to prepare for the Miami Dolphins. They have also failed to cover in their last 5 games coming off a win over a Divisional rival and I think the Chiefs win a vital road game this week.
Miami Dolphins @ Detroit Lions Pick: Two teams that have real Play Off ambitions meet in a big inter-Conference game and I think it is correct to want to stick with the Miami Dolphins with the points they are being given.
The front four have caused havoc over the last month and are getting a lot of pressure on Quarter Backs without the need to drop men out of coverage and that could be important against this Detroit Offensive Line. Calvin Johnson is back for Matt Stafford, but Miami will restrict the running game and force the Quarter Back to throw from third and long with the likes of Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon in his face or bringing him down.
I'd be much more excited about this game for the Dolphins if Detroit didn't have one of the better Defensive units in the NFL too and Ryan Tannehill has to hope his protection holds up. Like the Lions, Miami can't hope to have a real running game established with Lamar Miller likely to be bottled up and that means Tannehill could be under pressure from the likes of Suh up front.
This could come down to a couple of plays here and there to separate the teams and I am concerned Miami have the Thursday Night Football game scheduled this week which means they could overlook Detroit.
However, Miami are 6-3 against the spread over the last three seasons as a small road underdog, while Detroit are just 3-3 during the same span as the small home favourite. The Lions have also failed to cover the last 5 times they are riding a win streak of two or more games and I think the Dolphins keep this competitive at least, even if they don't have enough to actually win.
Jacksonville Jaguars v Dallas Cowboys Pick: A trip to England has generally seen the better team prove themselves by winning and covering the games and I do like the returning Tony Romo to lead the Dallas Cowboys to the win and cover at Wembley Stadium.
Both Dallas and Jacksonville could run the ball effectively and it might be an exciting game for the crowd in attendance with the chance of plenty of points. However the difference at Quarter Back may be the reason the Dallas Cowboys are able to pull away with Blake Bortles still making too many errors with turnovers from his arm.
The Cowboys should be ultra-focused coming off consecutive losses and Dallas are 3-1 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons. Dallas haven't been a great favourite to back, but the spread seems out of sync considering the Cincinnati Bengals were giving up over 10 points at home against the Jaguars last week and San Diego were 13 point home favourites against them.
Neither of those teams is superior to Dallas in my opinion and I think DeMarco Murray rips off enough big runs that open the play-action for Tony Romo to hit the Jaguars Secondary which hasn't played that well.
I like Dallas to match the margin of victory Cincinnati had over the Jaguars and I believe a late Blake Bortles pick sees the Cowboys cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets Pick: The spread has rightly come down from the near Touchdown mark it opened at and it now makes the Pittsburgh Steelers a more appealing option this week, even if this team has regularly failed to bring in the money as a road favourite.
The spread is still probably a point too high in all honesty, but Ben Roethlisberger is playing with such confidence that I can see him hitting this Secondary hard and help the Steelers to a win by at least a Touchdown.
I do think the Jets can move the ball better than some may think as they have the ability to run the ball while the addition of Percy Harvin produced some positive numbers last week. With Erik Decker already here, the Jets may also feel they can throw the ball with success although Michael Vick isn't always the cleanest passer and could be under more pressure with a sparked pass rush of the Steelers.
The Jets have struggled as an underdog given between 3.5 and 7 points and some of the veterans could be looking ahead to the bye knowing the season is already lost. Another factor is the importance of winning this game for the Pittsburgh Steelers in the tight and competitive AFC North where Conference record could prove the deciding factor between those that make the Play Offs and those that don't.
Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders Pick: I have to say that I have been impressed by some of the play that Derek Carr has produced this season as a rookie, but he is going to have a tough day keeping up with an annoyed Peyton Manning who will want to remove the taste of his performance from last week as soon as possible.
Manning took the blame for the heavy loss at New England, but he has dominated Oakland since arriving in Denver and the Broncos have won those games by 20 points per game and all by double digits.
With all the weapons at his disposal, Manning should find it comfortable to move the chains through the day and he is unlikely to stop throwing until the game is truly out of hand. Ronnie Hillman has the speed and elusiveness to hurt the Raiders on the ground if they sell out to stop the run and it will be tough for Oakland to get off the field.
Derek Carr may have some success throwing the ball himself and he will need to with the Broncos strong against the run. Carr showed his composure in making big throws against Seattle last week, but he is also still turning the ball over a little too much and that can help Denver continue their dominance of this series.
The Broncos are 13-3 against the spread against teams with losing records since Peyton Manning arrived and I think the Quarter Back improves those numbers this week with a big road win.
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers are 15-8 against the spread when set as home favourites against Divisional rivals since Mike McCarthy arrived as Head Coach and they have covered in all 8 games following a bye week.
I do think Chicago will have their success moving the chains too, especially Matt Forte who can both run the ball and also act as a very good security blanket for Jay Cutler when it comes to throwing. However, there is little doubt that Cutler also feels he needs to push a little too much to try and keep up in games like this and that is going to lead to errors, much like the game at Soldier Field, which helps the Packers pull away for a vital Divisional win.
The Bears are also just 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games as the road underdog in a Divisional game and one of those covers came after Rodgers got injured in the first series last year on Monday Night Football.
Chicago are also just 1-6 against the spread when trying to revenge a loss over the last three seasons and I just feel the mistakes that their Offense are likely to commit just makes life easier for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The Bears Defense can't bail them out either these days and I like the home team to win this one big.
0 Unit Selections: San Francisco 49ers + 6 Points, Baltimore Ravens - 10 Points, Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points, Arizona Cardinals - 7 Points, New York Giants + 8.5 Points, Philadelphia Eagles - 7 Points
MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 1 Point @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 7 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Week 9: 4-3, + 1.42 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units
Season 2014: 38-34-2, + 6.16 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units
Season 2014: 38-34-2, + 6.16 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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