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Friday 21 November 2014

Davis Cup Final Day 1 Picks 2014 (November 21)

Some of my friends can't really understand my fascination with tennis considering it is a sport that 'lacks characters and everyone seems to be friends with each other', but the end of the ATP World Tour Finals have provided some additional column inches that may not have been expected.

With the Davis Cup Final just days away, the story that Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka had a major falling out in their Semi Final threw the Switzerland preparation for this Final against France and was the main talking point in the lead up to this tie.

It has seemed that Wawrinka's problem may have been with the vocal support that Federer's wife, Mirka, had been offering during the Semi Final with one Swiss newspaper claiming that she had been heckling him for whinging. Apparently Federer and Wawrinka have been close, but clearly Federer's wife doesn't like the fact that Stan the Man has dared to challenge for the position as the Number 1 in Switzerland.

Both men have claimed that it is all water under the bridge and a 'heat of the moment' incident, but I for one can't wait to see the next time these two play one another.

Federer pulled out of the World Tour Finals following the win over Wawrinka, but he has managed to get through practice and will be in the second rubber of the day.

The big question still remains as to how the Switzerland team will get on over the next three days as they look to make history for their nation by winning the Davis Cup for the first time. I can see Stan Wawrinka being fired up and perhaps looking to make a point by being the player to lead them to the successful title win, but there is no doubt that Roger Federer needs to be healthy to see off an impressive French team.

I also do think the French side of the net are going to be very happy hearing about the Swiss problems and letting the media concentrate on that and allow them to get on with perfecting a game plan to win the title. I wasn't convinced the indoor clay courts would make the best use of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils, but both thrive when performing in front of their own fans and they have also enjoyed success at Roland Garros in recent years to believe they can at least earn a split on Day One, if not take both rubbers.


At the start of the Davis Cup, I recommended Switzerland to win the title and they are going into this final as the favourites- some may feel the issues surrounding their team has to be taken on and will look to back France, but I still believe the Swiss find a way to take this one, even on away soil.


Stan Wawrinka win 3-2 v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: The opening rubber of the Davis Cup Final could be the most vital one of the whole tie because I really feel this will go into a deciding set which could end up going either way.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has a decent record on the clay courts in the best of five matches and he will have been preparing for this match for a while as Stan Wawrinka has been concentrating on the indoor hard court season to end his 2014 campaign.

These two have previous for going the distance too- all five previous matches, which are lead 3-2 by Tsonga, have gone the distance and four of those matches have been on clay courts. Of those matches, these two have split them 2-2 and they are also 1-1 at Roland Garros with each having a five set win over the other.

Stan Wawrinka has more competitive tennis under his legs which may prove to be a difference, but it won't be easy against an opponent inspired by the home crowd. However, I just feel Wawrinka has enough of an edge on the backhand wing that will see him come through a very tough examination and set the Swiss up for a big weekend. A key to the match will be if Wawrinka can get enough first serves in play to back Tsonga up, but I think he also returns better than the Frenchman and can use that to find a five set win.


Roger Federer win 3-1 v Gael Monfils: So we will get the answer to how bad Roger Federer's back is very early in this second rubber, although I am of the belief that it might be an issue that has been exaggerated to take away from the issues with Stan Wawrinka at the World Tour Finals.

The match up with Gael Monfils is going to be an exciting one after the way Monfils pushed Federer at the US Open when he perhaps should have beaten the World Number 2.

Their three previous matches at the French Open have all ended in routine wins for Federer, but I do think Monfils has played well enough through 2014 to find himself with at least a set on the board in this one. The back is a big concern for Federer if it restricts him from serving properly, but I think he will put in his all in the hope that one rubber from him is enough to help Switzerland win this tie.

Monfils has been serving pretty well all season and that will give him every chance of winning this match if he is fully invested in it, but I do think Federer is the better player although is likely to drop a set if the Frenchman is inspired by the home fans. It might be a rare situation for Federer being the villain in the match, but I think he will be the one receiving a standing reception at the end of the day.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka Win 3-2 @ 6.50 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Roger Federer Win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)

Season 2014+ 39.55 Units (1581.5 Units Staked, + 2.50% Yield)

Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

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