College Football Week 10 Picks 2014 (November 1)

It has just been a feature of the season where late fumbles that lead to scores or stop a team from scoring has been the difference between a team covering and not, and thus the difference between a winning week or not.

You need those little things to go your way if you want a successful season, but watching Alabama fumble the ball inside the Tennessee five yard line with under three minutes left (which would have put the Crimson Tide up 21 assuming the extra point was kicked too) kind of summed up the season.

Nebraska were the team that fumbled in their own territory when dominating Rutgers to allow the short field score and then ran out the clock inside the Scarlet Knights Red Zone with just three points needed for the cover. And watching Bad Bo Wallace come back to haunt Mississippi was just the icing on the very disgusting cake that I had to eat in Week 9.


Air Force Falcons @ Army Black Knights Pick: The Air Force Falcons are 7-1 in the last 8 games between these two teams, but they did lose the last time they visited the Army Black Knights and that is my only real concern in backing the Falcons to win this one.

Air Force have the harder schedule of the two teams yet have more wins and they should be able to run all day against this Black Knights Defense. The key to the game may be the fact that the Air Force can also throw the ball with some effectiveness and that balance should give them the chance to win the game.

I have no doubt that Army will have some success moving the ball on the ground too, but they have very little coming through the air and it may literally take one key stop for the Falcons to ensure they come away with their sixth win of the season.


East Carolina Pirates @ Temple Owls Pick: If it wasn't for some of the ridiculous penalties that East Carolina have been giving up, this team would be winning games much easier than the have been of late and the Pirates insist they are doing all they can to clean up those errors.

A clean game should give the Pirates the edge in this one with the Quarter Back position definitely being a stronger point for East Carolina with Shane Carden compared with Temple and PJ Walker.

With Walker a little banged up, it will be tough for the Owls, who have lost easily to the Houston Cougars and UCF Knights, to move the chains efficiently as the Pirates can shut down the running game. The Temple Secondary has also been hurt by those two teams and Carden is the best Quarter Back they would have faced so the expectation is that East Carolina will score enough points to prevent this being another tight game like the one they had against the Connecticut Huskies in Week 9.

The only shame is this spread has moved about the 7 points it opened at, but I still like the Pirates to win by double digits.


UCF Knights @ Connecticut Huskies Pick: Blake Bortles might be struggling in the NFL as a rookie, but he was an important piece of the UCF Knights in the 2013 season and their Offense hasn't been as high powered this season.

However, the Defense has been very good and they have only given up more than 14 points to 1 of their last 5 opponents. It is unlikely that Connecticut will become the latest to do that as they have really struggled to move the ball consistently all season.

In all honesty, neither team is going to be able to run the ball effectively, but the UCF Secondary is playing better than the Huskies unit and they will be able to create sacks with that pass rush more likely to produce turnovers either through fumbles or Interceptions.

This is a revenge game for Connecticut after being embarrassed on the road by the Knights in 2013, but the road team still look better and I like them to win this game and cover.


Oklahoma Sooners @ Iowa State Cyclones Pick: This was supposed to be the season when the Oklahoma Sooners were going to be playing in the National Championship Play Off, but they have suffered a couple of back-breaking losses which means they need a miracle set of results down the stretch for them to be invited in.

The Sooners have had the bye week to get over their disappointing home loss to the Kansas State Wildcats, but the game with the Iowa State Cyclones looks to be one that should work out well for them. Oklahoma should be able to have their way with the Cyclones Defense whether they decide to run or throw the ball as long as Trevor Knight can avoid some of the terrible decisions which have led to Interceptions including a pick-six in the game with the Wildcats.

I can see the Cyclones keeping this competitive for a while as they will have the chance to throw the ball with success, but the Oklahoma Defense can make them one-dimensional by stopping the run and the pass rush could win the battle with the Offensive Line.

Oklahoma have won 15 straight in the series by 25 points per game and I think they make a statement ahead of the big game with Baylor which is next on deck.


Wisconsin Badgers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: The Wisconsin Badgers may regret the loss at Northwestern, but they remain firmly in contention in the Big Ten West and can win the Division and get into the Championship Game by running the table.

Talking about running, Wisconsin should be able to absolutely pound Rutgers with their big Offensive Line opening plenty of holes and the Scarlet Knights have struggled in this regard all season. The Rutgers Secondary is also one that can be punished through the air so the Badgers should have their way Offensively with the team kept in manageable third down situations.

Rutgers are coming off two tough outings, and also have Gary Nova banged up at Quarter Back while the Wisconsin Defense has actually played well for the most part this season. Wisconsin can shut down the run and then allow their pass rush to make it tough for Quarter Backs to complete passes.

As long as the Badgers don't follow the Nebraska game plan of losing the turnover battle, they should take this by two Touchdowns.


Georgia Bulldogs v Florida Gators Pick: It would be a real surprise if Will Muschamp is still the Florida Gators Head Coach going into the 2015 season, but that hasn't stopped him making the change at Quarter Back which could be a last ditch effort to save his job. Jeff Driskel was making too many mistakes and the Special Teams plays also went poorly in the loss to Missouri two weeks ago.

That means a Freshman Treon Harris will be given the ball for the Gators and he will have to be careful against a Georgia Defense that is perhaps a little under-rated. They create turnovers and have proven tough to move the ball on effectively so there will be a belief they can shut down the Florida Offense which has been struggling for much of the season.

Todd Gurley's absence is a real disappointment for Georgia, but Mark Richt is not focusing on that too much and Nick Chubb has filled in admirably in the absence of a potential First Round NFL Draft Pick.

This is the toughest game Chubb and the Bulldogs will have faced as the Florida Defense has been mean against the run all season. The Gators held Alabama and LSU to under 4 yards per carry and the whole Defense is coming off a game where they restricted Missouri to under 120 total yards Offensively.

Georgia's key to victory may be getting enough big plays out of Hutson Mason from the Quarter Back position who has effectively managed their games.

Two important factors could give Georgia the edge in this game as far as I am concerned- first is the Florida Offensive struggles and a Freshman coming up against a Defense that has forced the turnovers.

Second is the play from the Quarter Back position and I think Mason can do enough to keep the chains moving with his efficiency and help the Bulldogs win a big SEC East game. It is a big spread for a rivalry, but the Bulldogs do look primed to cover.


TCU Horned Frogs @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: This looks a game that should produce plenty of big plays and lots of scoring, but I like the TCU Horned Frogs to win the game and cover the spread.

Both Quarter Backs have been producing big numbers this season, but the key to the game will be the performance of the two Defenses.

The Secondary for both the West Virginia Mountaineers and the TCU Horned Frogs are in for a tough match up against the Quarter Backs, but the Horned Frogs definitely have the edge up front which can make all the difference.

TCU should get more pressure on Clint Trickett than West Virginia will likely get against Trevone Boykin and that can lead to drives stalling and mistakes potentially being made. The other factor is that TCU have been stronger against the run than West Virginia and are more likely to make the West Virginia Offense over-reliant on the pass and bringing their pass rush to the fore.

The two previous games between these schools have been incredibly tight and closely contested and it would be a real surprise if this anything but another competitive game.

However I do like TCU to come through with the vital win that can set up a huge game with Kansas State next week. A small sample of these teams coming off two or more straight up wins shows TCU cover in that situation and West Virginia don't and I'll back the road team to win this by a Touchdown.


Houston Cougars @ South Florida Bulls Pick: This is the third of the American Atlantic Conference games I am picking this week and once again I am going with the road favourite to prove they are too good for one of the struggling teams in the Conference.

South Florida have been heavily outgained in their last four games and they are going to find it tough to move the ball consistently against this Houston Defense that has been impressive.

As long as the Houston Offense steers clear of turnovers to keep the Bulls in the game, they should have a lot more consistency with the ball in their hands as the Bulls Defense allows 4.6 yards per carry and 66% passes completed. That should give the Cougars a real chance to win this game by more than a Touchdown and cover for the third straight time as the road team this season.


Arkansas Razorbacks @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: The Mississippi State Bulldogs have been given the first Number 1 seed in the Play Off picture that was released this Tuesday, but they have to stay focused against an Arkansas team that almost beat both the Texas A&M Aggies and Alabama Crimson Tide. On the other hand, staying focused should help the Bulldogs become the latest to beat Arkansas fairly comfortably as both the Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs did earlier this season.

The Bulldogs have played the run effectively and that might be enough to slow down Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins to the point that Brandon Allen is put into an uncomfortable position to keep the chains moving. Allen can have success against a Defense that has given up a lot of yards through the air this season, but Mississippi State have also created turnovers and have a fierce pass rush that could hurt Arkansas whose game plan might have to be amended.

Mississippi State should have success running and throwing the ball with Dak Prescott being passed as healthy for the game and they would have seen how the Georgia Bulldogs dominated Arkansas two weeks ago.

A couple of trends favour the home team in this one too- Mississippi State are 12-6 against the spread in their last 18 home games including going 3-1 this season. Arkansas are also just 0-3 against the spread over the last three seasons when they are the road underdog of between 10.5 and 14 points.

I can see Prescott making a couple of big plays that pulls the Bulldogs away from the Razorbacks in this one and keeps them as the Number 1 seed and only unbeaten team in the SEC West.


Stanford Cardinal @ Oregon Ducks Pick: The last two years have seen the Stanford Cardinal produce the kryptonite to the Oregon Ducks and ended up spoiling those seasons for their Pac-12 rivals.

So why do I believe Oregon are in the right position to beat them this time and cover what looks a fairly wide spread at first glance? I think a lot of that is to do with the fact that the Stanford Offense has been very bad this season and I am not sure they can put up enough points to keep this game close.

The Cardinal have made too many mistakes and have not played as well on the road, while Oregon are looking healthier and have bounced back from their sole loss by covering in three straight games. Of course the Ducks do have to contend with a strong Stanford Defense that is one of the best in College Football, but they too have had a harder time on the road and I think the Ducks will come out looking for revenge in this one. 


Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: There have been serious problems for the Oklahoma State Cowboys Offensively in the last three games they have played and that might continue against a well-disciplined Kansas State Wildcats Defense that pitched a shut out in Week 9. The pressure they had on Tyler Swoopes could pose big problems for Daxx Garman this week and the Wildcats have also prevented teams establishing a strong running game which is not a strength of the Oklahoma State Cowboys anyway.

It won't be easy for Jake Waters either, but he has the ability to move away from pressure that he will see and scramble for yards himself. He also has the luxury of throwing against a Secondary that has given up plenty of yards through the air and Waters has made the right decision often enough to think he can help the Wildcats move the chains efficiently in this one.

Kansas State will be looking for revenge after their loss in Stillwater last season and they have won 4 of their 5 home games against Oklahoma City, covering in all of those wins.

The Wildcats are so well coached that they have regularly made hay against the number and I think they are going to be too disciplined for the Cowboys this week. Over the last three seasons, Kansas State are 4-2 against the spread as the home favourite being asked to cover between 10.5 and 14 points.

They are also 16-5 against the spread in Big 12 games, including going 3-1 this season, and Bill Snyder gets them ready for games against teams with winning records. In the same period, Kansas State are 11-2 against the number when playing a team with a winning record and they are 2-0 in that spot this season.

At the moment, the spread is a few points short of two Touchdowns and I like Kansas State to cover a big number and confirm their position as favourites to win the Big 12.


Navy Midshipmen v Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: The Midshipmen played Notre Dame very close last season which should keep the Fighting Irish focused, although they may also want to come out and prove something after coming so close to upsetting the Florida State Seminoles in their last game.

That defeat hasn't spelled the end of Notre Dame's chances of pushing into the top four and the Play Off for the National Championship, but they need to start making statements in games like this one.

Notre Dame have legitimately outgained both Florida State and Stanford this season and the Fighting Irish should be able to move the ball consistently either throwing or running it. Brian Kelly would have also had the team preparing for the triple-option since the bye and that additional time may be critical for the Fighting Irish to use their strong run stopping unit to slow down Navy enough and force enough changes of possession to win this game by more than two Touchdowns.

The Fighting Irish are 4-2 against the spread coming off a bye over the last three seasons so it looks like Kelly prepares his players in the right way and I like them to win this one.


Arizona Wildcats @ UCLA Bruins Pick: The only dog I am taking this week are the Arizona Wildcats even if their last visit to the UCLA Bruins two seasons ago saw them embarrassed.

An almost Touchdown start looks too many points considering how UCLA have struggled to cover in their games this season and especially when it seems Arizona match up with them on both sides of the ball.

While I think the Wildcats will have a nice balance with the ball in their hands, UCLA could struggle to run the ball and Brett Hundley could be under immense pressure from an Arizona pass rush that can cause havoc in the backfield. The UCLA Offensive Line hasn't played well for much of the season when it comes to pass protection, while the Wildcats have been strong against the run and can at least slow down that avenue for the Bruins to attack from.

This has all the makings of a close game where the potential for the upset is clear so taking the points as insurance looks the right decision to me.

MY PICKS: Air Force Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
East Carolina Pirates - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
UCF Knights - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 16 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 10.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs - 10.5 Points @ 1.85 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 8 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 12.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 14.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arizona Wildcats + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 9: 4-9-1, - 5.31 Units (14 Units Staked, - 37.93% Yield)
Week 8: 5-7, - 2.26 Units (12 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
Week 7: 3-8, - 5.31 Units (11 Units Staked, - 48.27% Yield)
Week 6: 2-7, - 5.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 57% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 1.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 12.56% Yield)
Week 4: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)
Week 3: 3-7-1, - 4.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 38% Yield)
Week 2: 5-6, - 1.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 10.72% Yield)
Week 1: 6-4, + 1.77 Units (10 Units Staked, + 11.7% Yield)

Season 2014: 38-58-2, - 22.15 Units (98 Units Staked, - 22.60% Yield)
Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)