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Wednesday, 23 July 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 23rd)

After the positive beginning for the week on Monday, Tuesday proved to be a lot more disappointing with both picks falling.

I didn't make a lot of picks on Tuesday simply because I wasn't that confident of the options that were available, but I expected better from the two picks I did make and will be looking to bounce back on Wednesday.

The Second Round action gets underway through the three men's tournaments on Wednesday and hopefully the following picks have a better time than the two made on Tuesday.

Federico Delbonis - 2.5 games v Thomaz Bellucci: Federico Delbonis won the first three matches these two players have competed against one another, but it was Thomaz Bellucci who won the most recent match in Munich.

On that occasion, the Brazilian took the chances that came his way and won the key points in a three set win, but I expect Delbonis to get the better of him for the fourth time in five matches in this Second Round clash.

Bellucci did well to win his First Round match here in Gstaad, but he hasn't been in the best form in recent weeks and I think that lack of confidence may prove to be the difference. There are times when Delbonis can be a frustrating player to back as he can make a number of mistakes that gift matches to his opponent, but he should be in a better place mentally of the two players.

I can see both players having their chances to break serve, but the confidence of winning more matches this year may help Delbonis find a 76, 64 win.

Pablo Andujar - 3.5 games v Blaz Rola: Another player that isn't the most fun to back, but one that I will be backing on Wednesday, is Pablo Andujar.

There is little doubt that the clay courts remain the Spaniard's favourite surface and he showed that with a decent run in Hamburg last week, although there is little doubt that Andujar isn't the most consistent player.

He is going up against Blaz Rola who has had a lot of success on the Challenger Tour on the surface, but he is yet to carry that form into the main Tour level and that is where I think Andujar's experience can make the difference.

Rola did crush Andujar at Wimbledon, but the grass will never sit well with the latter and I expect Andujar to get his revenge in a 64, 64 win.

Lukas Rosol - 3.5 games v Pere Riba: I was surprised by Pere Riba's win over Jiri Vesely in the First Round, but he is going to have to dig very deep to beat Lukas Rosol in the Second Round, even if the latter was pushed harder than he may have thought in the First Round.

It has been a good summer for Rosol so far and the next six weeks gives him a great opportunity to build Ranking points and he has every chance to surpass his career high ranking of 33 with some more wins. Last season saw him lose a lot of First Round matches, but he has had good runs in Stuttgart and Hamburg and would be expected to be too good for the Spaniard in this one.

Riba does love playing on the clay courts, but he could be under immense pressure by the Rosol serve, which may make his own vulnerable serve that much more in danger of being broken. He did give Vesely chances yesterday and I don't think Riba will have it as easy to create break point chances.

In their sole meeting at the French Open last year, Rosol won comfortably in three sets and I expect a 64, 64 win in this one.

Marin Cilic - 5.5 games v Igor Sijsling: Marin Cilic has won all three previous matches with Igor Sijsling, but they have all been competitive- however, this is on the clay where Sijsling has struggled for much of the season and I think the Croatian can win this well in front of his own fans.

The one nagging doubt would be the lack of tennis Cilic has played since Wimbledon, but his last appearance at Umag came in 2012 a couple of weeks after coming off the grass and he adjusted very well.

Cilic's aggressive return of serve should put some pressure on Sijsling, particularly if the latter doesn't get at least 65% of first serves in play. That along with Cilic's own more aggressive attitude on serve plus the home support all should help Cilic come through this match.

There are times when Sijsling can throw in the towel and if that happens again, I can only see Cilic winning 75, 62.

Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 games v Pablo Carreno-Busta: With the way that Carlos Berlocq plays, there is always every chance that he will drop sets as his serve isn't the weapon that some players have on the Tour.

However, in this match, Berlocq is going against Pable Carreno-Busta whose own serve is also one that can be broken as shown in his First Round win over Paolo Lorenzi.

This is the first time that Carreno-Busta is taking on Berlocq and the veteran can be an awkward player that does get under the skin of his opponent. I can see Berlocq frustrating Carreno-Busta at times and that should give him the edge in the match.

I won't be surprised if it needs three sets though before Berlocq comes through 63, 36, 64.

Yen-Hsun Lu - 3.5 games v Alex Kuznetsov: Yen-Hsun Lu won a Challenger back home last week before travelling to Atlanta and he should have the confidence to beat Alex Kuznetsov.

The latter got into the draw as a Lucky Loser, although he is probably happiest on the hard courts, but that might not be enough against someone like Lu who is a regular at these kinds of events.

Lu also dismissed the Kuznetsov challenge earlier in the season on the indoor hard courts of Memphis and I think he has the serve to do enough damage against Kuznetsov to win this match.

It won't be as easy as Memphis simply because of the travel to Atlanta that Lu had to undertake, but I still believe he wins 76, 63.

Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Dudi Sela: Sam Querrey was impressive in his win over Steve Johnson and perhaps should have won with a clearer margin than the 76, 75 suggested as he had the majority of the chances to break serve.

If he continues serving to the same standard he set in that match, he is going to be tough to beat in Atlanta and on the hard courts in general this next six weeks, while confidence looks to be improving after a disappointing first six months.

Like a lot of American players, the clay courts are always going to be a tough time for Querrey, but he had been performing far below the standard he wants before then. Now he is back on familiar terrain, I expect he can be too good for Dudi Sela.

Sela is a player that really plays a lot during this time between Wimbledon and the first of the hard court Masters tournaments and this is his third tournament since the third Grand Slam of the year came to a conclusion. He has surprised Querrey before so can't be under-estimated, but Sela also does give opponents chances to break serve and I can see the big American putting together a string of winners against Sela in each set to bring together a 64, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Carlos Berlocq - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Yen-Hsun Lu - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2.40 Units (10 Units Staked, - 24% Yield)

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