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Thursday, 10 July 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 10th)

With a short trip to Barcelona up next for myself, these will be the last picks made from the tennis tournaments this week and I will be back for the World Cup Final which will be the next post I make on Sunday morning.

I do have my outright picks from the events which can be read here.

Pablo Carreno-Busta - 2.5 games v Paolo Lorenzi: Both of these players are more than a little comfortable on the clay courts and they will see this as a good chance to get through to a Quarter Final in an ATP 250 event.

Those will give the winner a decent number of points with the majority of their success coming on the Challenger circuit where both Pablo Carreno-Busta and Paolo Lorenzi have proved too good for the majority of their competition.

The four previous matches between the pair have been split two apiece, but Carreno-Busta has won the two meetings on the clay courts, albeit in two tight matches. The Spaniard had a disappointing loss in a Challenger in Germany on the red dirt, but this surface remains his most effective one and I think he can outlast Lorenzi again.

It could easily need three sets to separate the players, but I do like Carreno-Busta to win 76, 64.

Roberto Bautista-Agut - 5.5 games v Louk Sorensen: This has already been a decent week for Louk Sorensen from Ireland, although he was the beneficiary of being a Lucky Loser before beating Igor Sijsling in the First Round.

However, despite a solid week to this point, Sorensen is outside the top 200 in the World Rankings and is playing an opponent in Roberto Bautista-Agut could expose some of his shortcomings.

Bautista-Agut is capable of playing strong defensive tennis which should aid him on the clay courts, although the downside is that his serve can be vulnerable and the Spaniard doesn't have the penetrating groundstrokes to win easy points.

I'd still expect him to have too much for Sorensen in this Second Round match though and I do think Bautista-Agut is going to come through with a 64, 62 win.

Santiago Giraldo - 5.5 games v Philip Davydenko: Any time you hear the name Davydenko on the tennis circuit, you would immediately think about Nikolay and the success he had for a number of years at the top of the game.

Now it is his nephew Philip who will be looking to keep the name in the public eye, although he has struggled to make an impact on the Tour and is outside the top 600 in the World Rankings. Davydenko is 21 years old so the hope was that he could crack on with the move up the Rankings and  winning four matches in Stuttgart will certainly help his cause.

Unfortunately for Philip Davydenko, his time in the tournament should come to an end against Santiago Giraldo who had been playing some very strong tennis before an injury forced a withdrawal in Rome. Giraldo did seem back on track with a Third Round showing at Wimbledon and was a comfortable winner in the First Round in Stuttgart.

I would expect his knowledge of the Tour and the extra consistency to really favour the Colombian in tis match and I think Giraldo shows that off with a 63, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Pablo Carreno-Busta - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista-Agut - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-2, + 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 35% Yield)

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