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Tuesday, 15 July 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 15th)

I have made just the one outright pick this week from the events that are going to really get going and that can be read here.

The first day of the week wasn't the best for the picks as they went 1-3 and a couple of those picks were pretty poor ones. Andrey Golubev should have perhaps won his match as he seemed the better player than Benoit Paire, particularly in the deciding set, but couldn't get over the line.

With a little more luck, hopefully Tuesday will turn around the poor opening day of this week as a lot of tennis is scheduled for the day in the various tournaments through the world.

Juan Monaco - 4.5 games v Pere Riba: It has been a miserable 2014 to this point for Juan Monaco and that has been highlighted by his results on the clay courts where he is struggling to reach double digit wins.

Last season, Monaco won over twenty matches on the main Tour on clay but he has seven to this point and has struggled through injuries. That has seen the Ranking plummet and Monaco is only a few places above opponent Pere Riba who comes to Hamburg despite lasting one game last week in Bastad.

Like Monaco, Riba will feel most comfortable on the clay courts and I can see this match having a number of breaks of serve as neither player has a dominate shot in that department. Both will need to work hard for their points and I do still believe Monaco has the extra quality to win more of the extended rallies and thus the match.

Monaco won their previous meeting back in 2009 and while he has had a poor season to date, I still think the Argentine can win this match 64, 63.

Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Benoit Paire: Somehow Benoit Paire managed to come through his First Round match against Andrey Golubev, but it has to be said that the Frenchman still doesn't look that confident in his own game.

Paire has a decent serve but seems to lack the concentration to put together his tennis from set to set and, in some cases, even game to game.

Playing Santiago Giraldo looks a big ask for Paire considering how well the Colombian has been playing in recent months. Even his Quarter Final loss last week to Fabio Fognini is not a result that puts me off Giraldo who has the serve to make holding that much more comfortable.

There should be breaks of serve as expected on the clay, but I think Giraldo has enough to win this one 75, 64.

Lukas Rosol - 2.5 games v Julian Reister: Julian Reister has won the last two matches played by these two players and Lukas Rosol is erratic to say the least so even the run to the Stuttgart Final might not mean another decent week is in the offing.

That paragraph may make it strange to see me backing Rosol to win the match then, but Reister hasn't enjoyed any success on the main Tour on the clay this season even if he has played better at the Challenger level.

Rosol is someone who has enjoyed playing on clay courts with two appearances in Finals on the main Tour and also a Challenger title. The slower courts give him a little more time to set up heavy groundstrokes, although the Czech player is erratic to say the least.

If Rosol is serving well, it will be tough for Julian Reister in this match and I think that is where the difference will be made. It won't be the biggest surprise if we needed three sets to separate the players, but I like Rosol to come through 63, 46, 64.

Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 games v Johanna Larsson: Kaia Kanepi has had mixed fortunes on the grass courts through her career, but she has bounced back from a poor Wimbledon to reach back to back titles on clay courts, albeit at a lower level than this.

She won the title in Biarritz last week and also beat Johanna Larsson a couple of weeks ago en route to another Final and I do think Kanepi can frank that form as long as tiredness isn't playing a big factor.

That is the only real reason I can believe in why Kaia Kanepi is as big a price as she is to win this match. Her recent runs to the Finals on clay will have given Kanepi some confidence after struggles before the grass court season, but she has had a fair amount of success on the surface over the last couple of years.

Johanna Larsson has had a similar season in terms of struggles on the main Tour, but a couple of decent runs in the lower level events, but I think Kanepi has more about her game. As long as the tennis hasn't caught up with her, Kanepi should be able to come through with a 64, 63 win.

Alejandro Falla - 4.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: Last season was the first time this ATP 250 event was held in Bogota and Alejandro Falla delighted the home crowds by reaching the Final. He will be hoping to go a step further as the top Colombian player in the draw as Santiago Giraldo has decided to stay in Europe to pick up the bigger Ranking points on offer.

Falla has a decent serve that should be very productive on these courts played in the altitude and I think he will enjoy being back in front of his home supporters.

The match up with Tatsuma Ito should be a good one as Ito doesn't have the biggest serve and Falla can keep the scoreboard pressure on him, while his lefty serve might be even more productive here.

As long as Falla keeps his emotion in check, I believe he can break serve at least once more in each set and come through this match 64, 63.

MY PICKS: Juan Monaco - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 1.84 Unibet (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alejandro Falla - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-3, - 4.10 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51.25% Yield)

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