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Tuesday, 1 July 2014

Wimbledon Day 8 Picks 2014 (July 1st)

Rain over the last few days means the schedule at Wimbledon has been changed from the traditional path that is set out at this Grand Slam as the top and bottom half of both men's and women's draws are now following a more standard Slam path.

That is that the Fourth Round/Quarter Finals are played on different days for the top and bottom half of the draw, although the likes of Stan Wawrinka have made their feelings known after the scheduling means they are due out on court on three consecutive days to go deep into the tournament. Wawrinka and Feliciano Lopez are both going to need to win five matches in seven days if they are to win Wimbledon, which hasn't gone down too well with the players, and the only hope is the rain allows the tournament to regain some 'normality'.

On Tuesday, the remaining Fourth Round matches in both men's and women's tournaments are due to be completed, while a couple of the Quarter Finals in the women's draw are also going to be played. Unfortunately all of my outright picks in the women's draw have exited the tournament, but all four in the men's draw remain on course and will have chances to win their respective quarters or the title in the coming days.


Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Tommy Robredo: The first three Rounds at Wimbledon have been easy work for Roger Federer and while I think he will be tested much more in this match, I also believe the former seven time Wimbledon Champion can record another impressive win.

Federer won't be taking Tommy Robredo lightly having been beaten by the Spaniard at the US Open last August, although I have to say that Federer had so many chances in that match and a straight sets loss wasn't a deserved result.

On the grass, Federer will feel even more comfortable and he has spent a lot less time on the court, while I think the added aggression will see the Swiss man dominate the points. Tommy Robredo will be forced to work much harder to hold on to his serve and I think Federer will build the pressure and come through this Fourth Round match.

I'll be looking for Federer to take the chances that come his way this time and come through 64, 62, 64.


Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: The nineteen year old Australian has been a revelation at Wimbledon this season, especially in his comeback win over Richard Gasquet, but Nick Kyrgios is going to have to raise his level by a couple of gears if he is to beat Rafael Nadal.

Kyrgios has all the tools to reach the top of the men's game in the coming years, but it is a big ask for him to beat the World Number 1 at this stage of his career. He has a decent serve which will keep him in the match, at least early on, and Kyrgios isn't afraid of getting to the net and has decent power.

However, Rafael Nadal is a player that doesn't take points off and will make Kyrgios work for everything he achieves in this game and I expect that to takes its toll both physically and mentally as the match goes on.

Nadal has started slowly in all three matches he has played which could lead to another competitive first set between these players, but the Spaniard must be feeling very confident on the grass after winning three matches too. Even if Nadal needs to take the first set in a tie-break, I expect him to kick on from there and give Kyrgios an idea of the level he will need to play out to reach the top of the men's game in a 76, 63, 62 win.


Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Zarina Diyas: Simona Halep has improved over the last twelve months that another Quarter Final at a Grand Slam beckons for her and I would expect her to be too good for Zarina Diyas.

They actually met at the Australian Open earlier this season in a match that Halep ended up dominating after a tight first set and something similar may develop in this Fourth Round encounter.

Diyas has to be given credit for coming through three Rounds at Wimbledon, but she is now playing an opponent who is extremely confident and one that can hit through the court with power and consistency.

That can take a mental toll on an opponent as they work that much harder to win points and I can see Halep ending up with a similar result to the Australian Open meeting and winning this match 64, 61.


Yaroslava Shvedova + 4.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: Sabine Lisicki continued her love affair with the grass courts and will be looking to make another Quarter Final here, while the exit of Serena Williams may have opened the door for another run to the Final after falling short in the match a year ago.

Lisicki has a decent serve and is completely at comfort on the grass which gives her an edge over many players, but she has to play on consecutive days and her fitness would be my sole concern for her.

Also, you have to say that Yaroslava Shvedova has the game that works very well on the grass and that was shown when she pushed Serena Williams here previously and also took Lisicki to three sets at the Olympic Games in 2012.

It does seem she is being given a disrespectful number of games in this match too as she has the serve and return games that could certainly make this competitive throughout. Lisicki may be the favourite to get through, but Shvedova can certainly make this competitive and stay within the number.


Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Barbora Zahlavova Strycova: This has been a wonderful month on the grass courts for Barbora Zahlavova Strycova who reached the Final at Birmingham and has already beaten Na Li and Caroline Wozniacki here this week.

Strycova has been very solid in her wins and I have a lot of respect for what she has accomplished, but Petra Kvitova has been in awesome form, very similar to the form that took her to the Wimbledon title three years ago.

She has been hitting with power and precision and playing with the consistency that is going to make it very hard to stop Kvitova in her tracks.

As well as Strycova has played over the last month, Kvitova can take the racquet out of an opponent's hands and I expect that to happen in this one as the Czech player rolls into the Semi Final after a 64, 62 win.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Yaroslava Shvedova + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 26-24, + 6.42 Units (94 Units Staked, + 6.83% Yield)

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