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Sunday, 20 July 2014

Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (July 21-27)

There are another five tournaments scheduled for this week with three men's events and two women's events, although I am not going to be making any outright picks from the latter two. The way I see it, if Shuai Peng and Sorana Cirstea are the two Number 1 Seeds, those tournaments really aren't bringing the best talents to the court.

It is also still that time of the year when the biggest names in the men's game are also still getting ready for the North American hard court swing and the majority of those won't be back until Toronto in a couple of weeks time. The hard court tournament in Atlanta is dominated by the home players, while we still have a couple more European clay court events in Gstaad and Umag taking place this week.


Last week was a mixed one, but the Saturday helped to ensure it wasn't going to be a losing week with a 4-1 day in the Semi Final picks made. It's been an average couple of weeks since the end of Wimbledon, but maintaing the season totals can't be ignored especially as this can be a portion of the year when I have struggled before the hard court season begins.


ATP Atlanta
This is the fifth edition of the ATP 250 event in Atlanta which signals the official beginning of the US hard court swing and it has been a tournament dominated by the home players with all four previous titles being won by an American.

John Isner is the top seed in Atlanta this week and comes in as defending Champion, while he has also been a Runner Up twice here- Isner gets plenty of support at the event having attended the University of Georgia and I can understand why he is the favourite to win the event again this week.

He had a disappointing loss in Newport a couple of weeks ago, but Isner receives a bye into the Second Round and looks by far the strongest player in his mini-section. I would expect Isner to get into the Semi Final with few problems and then I think he is capable of getting the better of Gael Monfils or Denis Istomin.

Last year's Runner Up Kevin Anderson and Sam Querrey from the bottom half of the draw may also feel very comfortable on the hard courts with their big games working on this surface. Both will go deep into the draw I can imagine, but the trend is to back an American in this event and I think John Isner is the call this week.


ATP Umag
The two Finalists from this tournament twelve months ago are the top two seeds in Umag this week as Fabio Fognini and Tommy Robredo bookend the draw, but neither player has been in the kind of form that will get them back to the Final.

Last summer Fabio Fognini enjoyed a lot of success on the clay at this time of the year, but he hasn't produced the same in exiting the Stuttgart Quarter Final and Hamburg Second Round. Tommy Robredo is another that has struggled for form and I think that could open the door for someone like Marin Cilic who is the Number 3 Seed.

Cilic would have been the defending Champion last year, but was off the Tour serving a ban for misreading a supplement he had used. Now he is back in front of his home fans where Cilic has reached the Final in 2011 and 2012.

He has been playing well and Cilic won't be intimidated in having to go through a player like Lukas Rosol despite the form the latter has shown over the last month. Cilic doesn't shy away from the clay courts where his aggressive return of serve can pay dividends.

In all honesty, the Croatian is in the harder half of the draw and I think he would have been a much stronger favourite if he was in the top half. However, Cilic has all the tools to reclaim the title he couldn't defend last season and I will have a small interest in him doing that.

MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: John Isner @ 3.50 Coral (2 Units)
Marin Cilic @ 4.00 Stan James (1 Unit)

Weekly Final14-13, + 2.04 Units (54 Units Staked, + 3.78% Yield)
Weekly Outright0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2014+ 51.84 Units (1128.5 Units Staked, + 4.59% Yield)

Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

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