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Sunday, 6 July 2014

Wimbledon Day 13 Picks 2014- Men's Final: Novak Djokovic v Roger Federer (July 6th)

The women's Final wasn't the competitive one that some imagined as Petra Kvitova blew Eugenie Bouchard off the court- I am not a fan of the media coverage of Bouchard, the new blonde WTA player on the scene that gets a disproportionate amount of newspaper columns compared with other players, but the player deserves a lot of respect.

Getting to three consecutive Grand Slam Semi Finals and also going a step further at Wimbledon is a successful season to this point, but Bouchard was a little overwhelmed by the power that Kvitova brought onto the court.

I did feel a little deja vu when watching Kvitova dismantle Bouchard through sheer power as a reminder of her first win at Wimbledon when it looked like the dawn of a new era of women's tennis. The same feeling went through me when watching the Final on Saturday and this 24 year old from the Czech Republic should certainly be better equipped to move forward as the Wimbledon Champion than she was in 2011.

Kvitova has said so much in her post-match comments to the media and I hope this does give her the confidence to make a move up the Rankings and become a consistent threat in every Slam going forward.

On Sunday, the men's Final takes centre stage on Centre Court and looks to be a fascinating one between two genuine rivals in Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. Hopefully it will live up to the hype and end the daily picks from Wimbledon with a positive note and make for a strong tournament after a tough start.

Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Roger Federer: History has been something that Roger Federer has been creating through his career, but he can still make another little footnote by becoming the first men's player to win the Wimbledon title eight times in his career.

Standing in his way is Novak Djokovic who must be feeling the pressure of ending his wait for a Grand Slam title after coming so close over the last fourteen months to adding to his tally, but losing some huge matches in that time.

Djokovic has lost in the Final of three of the last four Grand Slams including the Final at Wimbledon last season and he has won one of the last three Finals on Centre Court. Add in a big Semi Final loss at Roland Garros in 2013 and there were some suggestions that Djokovic has failed to win the 'big matches' in the last eighteen months.

Consistency has been key for Djokovic to keep him in the top two of the World Rankings, but winning the title is a huge motivation for him and he has come through two tough Rounds which should have him battle hardened for this Final. Importantly, Djokovic managed to come through in four sets in the Semi Final which means there should be enough in the tank to challenge Roger Federer who has been in immense form the last two weeks.

The serve has been key for Federer who has only been broken once through the tournament, but has not faced a returner of the talent of Djokovic through the event.

Federer has been aggressive with plenty of forays into the net and he will look to dictate behind the forehand. I also think he has a very strong tennis mind which will have noted the problems the slice that Grigor Dimitrov used against Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final did cause for the Serb and I expect Federer to employ that off the backhand side.

The serve will definitely need to be working perfectly for Federer to win the match, although the general conditions might not favour him so much with cooler temperatures than we have seen for most of the two weeks. It will also be a little damp as rain is scheduled in the morning, but not long enough for the match to be played under the roof.

That would have given Federer a bit more of an edge in the contest I feel, but he might be forced to push a little more in this one with the ball perhaps not travelling as quick as it has been. It will affect Federer getting into the net too as Djokovic might have a little more time to line up his passing shots and I do think the World Number 2 will win this match, although it will likely last at least four sets.

I would recommend keeping an eye on the weather as closing the roof would shift my thought towards Federer winning an eighth title in SW19, but I will begin by picking Novak Djokovic to come through 64, 63, 36, 64.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 38-28, + 22.94 Units (123 Units Staked, + 18.65% Yield)

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