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Thursday, 31 July 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 31st)

I had a few complaints about the way the picks went for me on Tuesday, but it was all put into perspective when I saw a poker player lose in a million dollar buy in tournament in the worst way. He had pocket aces, but faced a player that also had pocket aces and was then beaten when four hearts came out on the flop.

That's a bad beat and certainly one worth viewing here.

The tournament in Kitzbuhel was hammered by the rain on Wednesday with only two of the Second Round matches being able to be completed- that means winners on Thursday will have to do double duty, except Lukas Rosol and Maximo Gonzalez who are scheduled to play their Quarter Final later in the day following their Second Round wins.

That does put a spanner in the works for some of the picks as motivation can be hard to read when a player knows they have to win twice in the same day. Fortunately the majority of players are in Austria to improve their Rankings so I expect it will be a competitive day of tennis, as long as the rain stays away anyway.

With the rain delays in Austria, it also means that the schedule for Thursday tennis will not be available on Wednesday evening and the layers will only catch up on Thursday morning. I will update picks for Kitzbuhel then and the two tournaments in the United States after that.

Lukas Rosol - 2.5 games v Maximo Gonzalez: This is the only Quarter Final set at Kitzbuhel at the moment and I do like Lukas Rosol's chances of beating Maximo Gonzalez, despite the latter having his best week on the main Tour all season.

This is when the level does go up a notch for Gonzalez against an opponent who is comfortable on clay and is used to playing at the much higher level on a regular basis. Rosol has the serve to at least set up some of the cheaper points and I am not convinced that Gonzalez is that consistent behind his own serve.

I expect Rosol to be able to create chances and I think he should prove to be too good for the veteran Argentine as long as he doesn't check out mentally. Rosol should be looking at this as a good chance to win an ATP 250 event with the rest of the field having to play twice on Thursday and potentially fatiguing so the motivation is there for the Czech player.

Of course, Gonzalez should be very confident having won a few matches here this week, but I think Rosol has enough for a 64, 64 win.

Denis Istomin - 3.5 games v Donald Young: These two have to be part of the most erratic players on Tour category, but Denis Istomin generally plays at a higher level than Donald Young and I would expect him to move through to the Quarter Finals.

Istomin has a decent serve and is very comfortable on the hard courts, while Donald Young struggles to win matches consistently at the main level.

The American took advantage of a very comfortable draw in the Second Round to snap a four match losing run, but I think he will be under pressure in this one. Young is also perhaps thinking of qualifying for the Canadian Masters next week and may not be as focused on this match as he perhaps should be.

When this one is all said and done, I expect Istomin to come through 64, 64.

Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Victor Estrella: After the way Victor Estrella was serving in his match with Feliciano Lopez on Wednesday, it might be a risk backing against a player that has a lot of confidence from recent weeks exploits.

However, I expect Santiago Giraldo to force him to play more competitive shots than Lopez managed and I do think the Colombian has a game that transfers well from the clay courts to the hard courts.

Giraldo had a solid win over Benjamin Becker in the Second Round, although the German did have a long week in Atlanta last week. That shouldn't take away from a strong display from Giraldo who will feel he has a serve and aggressive groundstrokes to cause problems for Estrella in this one.

It might need Giraldo to win a tight first set before pulling away for a 76, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Lukas Rosol - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denis Istomin - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-8, - 6.20 Units (26 Units Staked, - 23.85% Yield)

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