I don't know about anybody else, but the international breaks at the beginning of the season bore me as they ruin the momentum the club football Leagues have picked up. It just seems far too stop-start for me, but at least we have a month of domestic and European football to enjoy before the next two week 'dead' period.
There is a full round of games throughout Europe this weekend and then teams can move on to Champions League and Europa League commitments in the next few days.
Newcastle United v Liverpool Pick: This is a fixture that has produced a boat-load of goals in recent seasons and recent form suggests we may see more of the same on Saturday.
My biggest concern is the early kick off after an international two weeks when some players will have played all over the world, but both teams should be set out to score goals, while neither has looked rock solid defensively over the last month or so.
Newcastle v Liverpool appeals to the neutrals, but the layers are also well aware of the history of the fixture and have made sure they have trimmed the odds on at least 3 goals being scored.
That was 1.80 earlier in the week, but has been trimmed to a best price of 1.73 at the time I am writing this. I am expecting that to shorten some more and while not the biggest price you will see this weekend, I do think we will see goals in this one as we usually do.
Arsenal v Norwich City Pick: There must have been a lot of Arsenal fans checking the websites on Tuesday evening when news broke that Mesut Ozil had limped off in Germany's win at Sweden, although it does seem like a precautionary substitution.
The German has made a big impact in his short time at the Emirates Stadium and his guile will be very important to unlock a Norwich City defence that can be a little stubborn at times.
Arsenal have been creating plenty of chances in their recent games and they should be able to match what Spurs managed against Norwich earlier this season. Even the improved performances from Norwich over their last couple of League games might not be enough for them to stay with a rampant Arsenal and I think Chris Hughton will see any point earned as a bonus.
I expect the home side to create enough chances to win this one by a couple of goals.
Chelsea v Cardiff City Pick: The one thing that hasn't changed in Jose Mourinho's approach since leaving Chelsea and returning to Stamford Bridge is the semi-cautious way he manages in games. That has been one of the main reasons their results have mainly been efficient at home in the League and he is always liable to send out a more defensive formation when taking the lead in a game.
I can't imagine he would approach this game in any other way with a big Champions League game in Germany just days away.
Cardiff City will come here with nothing to lose, but I am not sure they have enough creativity to score and that is why I am leaning towards backing Chelsea to win to nil.
Chelsea are still being asked to clear big handicaps on the Asian Handicap market, but I don't think they will particularly push on if they go 1-0 up and will look to perhaps hit Cardiff on the counter-attack. I can't back them to win by more than 2 goals, which you would need for the full payout, because they haven't scored a lot of goals so far this season and I will instead back on the cautious approach that Jose Mourinho generally applies.
Swansea v Sunderland Pick: Since winning the League Cup, Swansea won their first Premier League home game and have subsequently failed to win any of 8 in the League. They have had a tough start to the season with the top two both visiting the Liberty Stadium and a ruthless display from Manchester United, but Swansea have won 3 games at home in Europe.
There might be a mental block for the home side, but Sunderland have to be in a much worse play with a number of defeats in away games in the League.
Gus Poyet may not have time to have a reaction from his players in this one with a number being away on international duty and I don't know if he will see a reaction from them immediately.
With Sunderland conceding as many goals as they have been, I think Swansea can snap their recent run of games without a home win in the Premier League. I will back them to win on the Asian Handicap as Sunderland have been losing a fair few games by more than one goal and Swansea certainly have goals in the side although they need to improve defensively going forward.
West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: I have to say that both live Premier League games on Saturday could be entertaining ones for the neutrals to watch and I believe this game between West Ham United and Manchester City has the potential to be the best one of the day.
West Ham United are always tough to play in front of their own fans, but the fans are also demanding enough to want their side to get on the front foot. Sam Allardyce has ensured they get their wish more often than not and I have no doubt they will have a go against a Manchester City defence that has looked vulnerable at times, particularly away from home.
On the other hand, I have no reason to doubt Manuel Pellegrini will continue with his own attacking policy that he has used away from home. Pellegrini is aware of the talent he has at his disposal, but he is also smart enough to realise most of that talent is in attacking players so he is trying to use them to the best of his ability.
It would be a real surprise if we don't see goals in this game, although I do wonder if West Ham United can keep up with Manchester City if this does develop into a high-scoring game. With City scoring at least 2 goals in 3 of their 4 away games so far, I do think the away side are the more likely winner, although it could come after an exciting game where there are at least 3 goals scored.
This just has the feel of a game where both teams will score, but I fancy Manchester City to break their away duck in the Premier League and come through.
Osasuna v Barcelona Pick: There is no doubt that Barcelona have looked a little vulnerable at the back at times this season in the absence of Carles Puyol and injuries to Javier Mascherano meaning a lot of changes in the back.
That will give Osasuna some hope that they can replicate the result of a couple of years ago when they beat Barcelona here, but I would temper those enthusiasms.
For all the issues Barcelona have had defensively, they have kept 4 clean sheets in their 5 away wins this season in all competitions, while Osasuna have struggled for goals at home.
Osasuna have lost 6 of their last 10 home games and 5 of those defeats came in games where they failed to score. With Barcelona earning clean sheets in 4 of 5 away from home, the Barcelona win to nil looks an appealing price at 2.30 in this game.
Espanyol v Atletico Madrid Pick: I am not a fan of the odds on quote for Atletico Madrid winning this game as Espanyol are no pushover, but you have to respect what Atletico have done in the first two months of the season.
Diego Simeone has the side playing good attacking football, but has balanced that with a tough defence, and they will certainly feel they can also reach 9 straight wins to open the League season.
Atletico have shown they are not afraid of playing anybody after earning a goalless draw in the Nou Camp and beating Real Madrid in their last two visits to the Bernebeau (once in extra time though). A win in Porto is not an easy task for any club in Europe and Atletico have scored a fair few goals away from home too.
I might not like the odds on quotes for Atletico to win this game, but they look a decent shout at slightly larger prices to score at least 2 goals here. Atletico have reached that total in 4 of 6 away games this season, only failing to hit against Barcelona and Real Madrid... In fact, take away the games against the top two sides in Spain and Atletico have scored at least 2 goals in their last 7 away games in all competitions.
Espanyol have conceded 2 goals in each of their last two home games and have also conceded at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 9 home games going back to last season. At 1.92, I will back Atletico to become the latest side to hit that mark.
MY PICKS: Newcastle United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Swansea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.40 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Barcelona Win to Nil @ 2.30 Coral (1 Unit)
Atletico Madrid Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
October Update: 12-7-1, + 11.58 Units (26 Units Staked, + 44.54% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Saturday, 19 October 2013
Thursday, 17 October 2013
NFL Week 7 Picks 2013 (October 17-21)
Week 6 was one of the toughest weeks of the season so far and it seems that most people had a pretty hard time with a lot of the games being decided in strange ways. It was hard to see some of the plays that changed things so drastically during the course of Sunday, although Vegas would have been laughing with the success they had.
I am not the biggest fan of Henne, but he is far more serviceable than Gabbert and has a decent connection with Justin Blackmon to at least make the Jaguars somewhat competitive for the rest of the season.
Week 6 Thoughts
New England's Super Bowl hopes hit by Defensive injuries: I still don't know how New England won their last game to move to 5-1, but injuries are beginning to pile up on the Defensive side of the ball which may hit their hopes of getting back to the Super Bowl.
Losing Vince Wilfork was always going to be tough, but Jared Mayo looks set to miss the rest of the season too and Aqib Talib could be missing a few games and that will put added pressure on Tom Brady and this Offense to score enough points to help the Patriots keep winning games.
Rob Gronkowski's return to the Offense will help on that front, but it looks a big ask for New England and there may just be room for someone to take advantage in the AFC East, for example the Miami Dolphins, if they can use the bye week to fix their Offensive Line problems.
Jacksonville Jaguars have to stick with Chad Henne at Quarter Back: I know Jacksonville would very much love to lock down the Number 1 pick in the Draft and playing Blaine Gabbert to that end is probably the right move, but the fans deserve to see Chad Henne at Quarter Back for the rest of the season.
I am not the biggest fan of Henne, but he is far more serviceable than Gabbert and has a decent connection with Justin Blackmon to at least make the Jaguars somewhat competitive for the rest of the season.
Jacksonville are unlikely to win a lot of games with the lack of protection on their Offensive Line and the Defense being as bad as it is, but Henne can sling the ball around and can help keep the fans a little interested. Blaine Gabbert doesn't offer too much room for optimism so Henne has to be the call for the rest of the season.
On another note, I don't think the Jaguars will have too many better chances to win a game this season than the one with San Diego this weekend- the Chargers are in a difficult spot coming off a big win on Monday Night Football and now travelling across the country for an early start on Sunday against a team they will be expected to destroy.
Channel 4 needs new researchers: Not everyone reading this would have seen the absolutely stunningly bad poll that Channel 4 ran before the Redskins-Cowboys game when they were genuinely asking whether Robert Griffin III should be traded by Washington?
What??? Who decided this was even close to being a relevant question or one that needed debate? Mike Carlson was visibly embarrassed, although I am not sure whether that was down to the question or because his co-host, Nat Coombs, was trying to argue the 'yes' side of the coin.
What??? Who decided this was even close to being a relevant question or one that needed debate? Mike Carlson was visibly embarrassed, although I am not sure whether that was down to the question or because his co-host, Nat Coombs, was trying to argue the 'yes' side of the coin.
It was so bad that it is being openly mocked by a major sports site in the United States (CBS Sports) and I think the need for better presenters and researchers is clear from the horrible poll set.
Jim Irsay poking the bear that is Peyton Manning: We all knew it was a big week when Peyton Manning was heading back to Indianapolis for the first time to take on the Colts, but Jim Irsay has raised the tension ahead of what should have been a huge welcome for Manning.
It is absolutely scandalous that Irsay suggests Manning's time in Indianapolis was not as good as it should have been considering they lost so many Play Off games and 'only' won one Super Bowl and the owner of the Colts is being roundly criticised.
I really can't understand why Irsay would say such things, even if he has suggested his comments have been taken out of context, unless he is trying to pile the pressure on Peyton ahead of this game.
Either way, Sunday has become 'must watch' TV if it wasn't already.
Top Five
1) Denver Broncos (6-0): They weren't at their best against Jacksonville, but remain favourites to win the AFC.
2) Kansas City Chiefs (6-0): Kansas City have been a little fortunate in the early going, but they have every chance of reaching their game with Denver at 9-0 and the Defense is legit.
3) Seattle Seahawks (5-1): Not a great performance from the Seahawks and now have a big road game at Arizona on a short week.
4) New England Patriots (5-1): I can't wait to see how this Defense holds up without three of their best players and whether Tom Brady can put up enough points to keep winning games.
5) New Orleans Saints (5-1): New Orleans should have remained unbeaten last weekend barring some poor calls in the final three minutes.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6): Most competitive performance of the season came in Week 6 against Denver and may not get a better chance to win a game than this weekend against San Diego.
31) New York Giants (0-6): It has been a terrible season for the Giants and nothing has been going right for them.
30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5): Tampa Bay have had chances to win four of their five games but keep shooting themselves in the foot.
29) Minnesota Vikings (1-4): Time for the Josh Freeman experiment to begin in Minnesota.
28) Washington Redskins (1-4): Robert Griffin III looked a little better this week, but Washington lost a big game to Dallas although not too far from competing in the NFC East.
Week 7 Picks
It was a very tough week for the picks, but I could not have asked for more bad luck than what I encountered during the course of Sunday.
A couple of the picks were just terrible from start to finish, notably picking Houston to win and cover and Minnesota to do the same (both blown out and never looked close to winning, let alone covering).
However, I could have legitimate complaints about almost all the other picks that fell down the crapper:
Green Bay - 2.5 Points: So Green Bay are up by 9 points with a little under 4 minutes left and they sack Joe Flacco which has helped Baltimore into a 4th and 21.
Somehow the Packers allow him to complete that pass for SIXTY-THREE yards and score a Touchdown which helped them get within 2... They then can't stop Green Bay from running the clock out from within the Baltimore 20 as Eddie Lacy picks up ten yards with three runs and this was one ridiculous non-cover for the Packers.
Cincinnati - 5.5 Points: The Bengals were up 14 with ten minutes left and can't get anything going nor stop Buffalo from forcing overtime.
Oakland + 8 Points: This was a close game throughout, but a couple of breaks went against Oakland- first they turned the ball over twice in their own half, while Kansas City fumbled inside the Oakland red zone but the ball trickled out of bounds so the Chiefs kept possession of the ball.
It may have looked a 17 point win, but the Chiefs barely did enough on Offense to think they should have won this by more than a Touchdown.
New Orleans + 1.5 Points: The Saints had a four point lead and the ball with under two minutes to go, yet they allow Tom Brady to move right up the field without a time out and score the winning Touchdown... This game looked so over that the majority of fans had left the stadium and I am still shaking my head that the Patriots won that game.
Washington + 5.5 Points: Kai Forbath misses a Field Goal that would have made this a two point game, Washington outgained Dallas and the difference became two huge returns for the Cowboys and a fumble from RG3 inside his 10 yard line.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The Atlanta Falcons had a Super Bowl appearance in mind this season, but injuries have ravaged a side that is 1-4 as they come out of their bye and they know a loss here would effectively end their chances.
A once powerful Offense will be missing Roddy White and Julio Jones, although the bye would have allowed Matt Ryan to get on the same page as the likely replacements like Harry Douglas. Steven Jackson may miss another game at Running Back, but Tony Gonzalez is still in the line up and Atlanta should be able to move the ball through the air with the way Tampa Bay have defended the pass.
It will all be on Ryan though as the Buccaneers have been tough to run against, while the Falcons Defense has to step up.
They have struggled to get pressure and need to find a way to at least rattle rookie Mike Glennon in his first road start in the pro ranks. Glennon found a rapport with Vincent Jackson last week and I can see the pair hooking up for big gains in this one if the Falcons struggle up front as they did against the New York Jets in Week 5.
Doug Martin may also find a little more running room, but it is going to be tough for the Buccaneers to win here considering how often they have shot themselves in the foot this season. They should have won at least 2 of their games so far, but bonehead decisions or poor mistakes have cost them and I think the Falcons off a bye will win this game despite the injuries.
Atlanta did lose at home to Tampa Bay last season, but that was after they had already secured the Number 1 seed in the NFC and they had won 4 in a row before that. The Falcons are also 4-2 against the spread off their bye.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: It seems that Rob Gronkowski is ready to return for the New England Patriots and Tom Brady will be very happy to have his top target back in the line up although we may not see the best of their chemistry until a couple more games are played.
This is not an easy game for the Patriots as the New York Jets have the kind of Defense that can certainly make life tough for Brady. They get a ton of pressure up front through the likes of Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson and the Patriots Offensive Line has struggled at times to protect Brady.
Rex Ryan will certainly try to flummox Brady in the pocket by sending pressure from different angles, while the Jets should do a better job containing Stevan Ridley than the New Orleans Saints did last week. New York only allow 3 yards per carry, while the pass Defense will be helped if the Patriot Receivers keep dropping the ball.
Geno Smith had another bad week last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and continues to play erratically which is expected of a rookie. He was troubled by Bill Belichick in Week 2 as he threw Interceptions in the critical fourth quarter and he has to give his Defense more points to defend while also limiting mistakes and forcing the Patriots to have extended drives to score points.
Smith will be helped by the injuries on the Defensive side of the ball for New England with Aqib Talib expected to miss out along with Vince Wilfork and Jared Mayo. That should keep the pocket a little cleaner for Smith, while the Receivers may have more chance to find themselves open without Talib covering them as he has been exceptional all season.
New Orleans showed it is easier to run the ball against the Patriots now the big body of Wilfork is out and the Jets should at least keep this close.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Miami Dolphins are coming off a bye week and they will be hoping they have fixed some of the issues on the Offensive Line if they are to reach some of the expectations that a 3-0 run to start the season will raise.
The Dolphins are in line to set a season record for number of sacks allowed and the likes of Mario Williams will be licking his lips with anticipation to get after Ryan Tannehill in this one. Buffalo should get plenty of players in the backfield and it will be tough for the Quarter Back to find time to find Mike Wallace deep.
Buffalo's Secondary have struggled against the pass, but they are getting healthier on that front while Miami have struggled to run the ball all season and are not expected to rip big chunks on the ground either.
It will be tough for Miami to move the chains consistently, but the same could be said for Buffalo despite Thaddeus Lewis making his second start after suffering an injury last week. Lewis will have Stevie Johnson back to give him another Receiving threat, but he will need his Offensive Line to play better than they have.
Like when Miami have the ball, Buffalo will also struggle to protect the Quarter Back against this fierce Miami pass rush now that Cameron Wake is back from a three week absence. The Dolphins have given up big numbers through the air, but they have played some decent Quarter Backs in that time, although Thad Lewis will also lean on CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson to get some yards on the ground.
I have never really liked Miami in a position as a favourite, and this looks a lot of points to give up in a game where the Offense could again struggle for consistency without decent O-Line play.
St Louis Rams @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I must need my head checked for liking the Carolina Panthers in a spot where they are the big favourites to beat the St Louis Rams, but that is the situation I find myself in this week.
The Panthers and the Rams are both coming in to this game off the back of big wins on the road last week, but it is a tough spot for St Louis in the second of back to back road games. However, that can be nullified by the fact that Carolina have a Division game to play against Tampa Bay in just four days time.
Zac Stacy did give St Louis a semblance of a rushing attack last week against Houston, but he faces another tough battle this week against a Panthers Defense giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. Sam Bradford is going to have carry the Rams on his back again this week, but he has been looking better the last couple of weeks after that terrible game against San Francisco in Week 4.
Bradford will be able to have success passing against Carolina, but the Panthers get a lot of pressure up front an the likes of Greg Hardy will be able to break through this Offensive Line to keep Bradford scrambling.
On the other side of the ball, I can't guess which Cam Newton is going to turn up this week- if he goes back to rushing the ball and giving Defenses something else to worry about, Carolina should have success moving the ball on the ground against a St Louis team that have been gashed by a couple of different teams by running the ball this season.
That would open things up in the Secondary for Newton to exploit, although the Quarter Back has been erratic at times this season. That would normally open things up for the Panthers to win this game by at least ten points, although Carolina can't always been trusted.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: It might be a non-Conference game for the San Francisco 49ers, but they will look to carry their momentum from the last three weeks forward and keep the pressure on the Seattle Seahawks at the top of the NFC West.
It does seem a good time for them to face the Tennessee Titans with Jake Locker getting healthier but unlikely to be risked in this game as he recovers from injury. Tennessee will be heading into a bye week following this game so it is very likely that they give Locker an extra week to get healthy.
That means the pressure is on Ryan Fitzpatrick to make the plays to win the game and I don't trust he will be able to get the job done. Fitzpatrick will engineer a couple of nice drives during the game, but he is also liable to throwing a pick or two that will see his team fall from positions of strength.
I will be expecting San Francisco to keep pounding the ball and then look for Colin Kaepernick to make a couple of big plays to either Anquan Boldin or Vernon Davis to score Touchdowns.
One thing that does concern me is the poor record against the spread teams have the week before they are due to visit London for the International Series game and that is the position San Francisco find themselves in this week. However, the spread has come down to a level where I like the 49ers to force a turnover or two from Fitzpatrick and cover the spread.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: This is a really important game for the Kansas City Chiefs to show they are very capable in the AFC and they will know the importance of knocking off a potential Wild Card rival later on in the year.
Both Defensive units will feel they are the stronger units playing in this game, but Kansas City have the experienced Quarter Back and that could make a big difference.
Smith should feel comfortable in his surroundings and will be happy to use the short passes to try and move the ball up the field, while also avoiding the mistakes to give his Defense the chance to do their thing.
On the other hand, Case Keenum is making his first professional start in a very tough atmosphere at Arrowhead and Houston could find themselves in a tough spot if they fall into a big hole as they did last week.
The rookie will need his established Running Backs to keep Houston in manageable third down situations, but Kansas City's Defense will be looking to introduce him to the NFL when they get a chance. It's a tough spot for Houston who will go into their bye after this one and I can't see them staying within the number in this one.
Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have been a strong home favourite to back in the last few years and I do think they have a real chance of knocking off the Cleveland Browns by double digits.
The biggest concern for the Packers has to be their recent willingness to accept Field Goals over Touchdowns as drives have become bogged down when they get close to the opposition end zone.
Still, even Field Goals may be enough to beat the Cleveland Browns as they have struggled for consistency with Brandon Weeden at the Quarter Back position and he has been close to making mistakes that could see Cleveland seriously punished by somebody.
Cleveland are unlikely to establish a ground game meaning Weeden has to force the throws and the Packers Defense may just improve their Interception statistics in this game.
This might not be a Conference game for the Packers and they may have a big game at Minnesota next up on deck, but I still like Green Bay to win this one and cover the spread.
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: This was always going to be Peyton Manning's day as the fans were going to welcome him back with open arms and at first it looked like perhaps this was too many points to be laying with the home team.
However, Jim Irsay's comments which almost wiped out the impact Manning had for the Indianapolis Colts has surprised many people and must have hurt Peyton. I have seen so often in the NFL a player really use a perceived slight as a real motivation to play his best game and Manning has the personnel at his disposal to punish Irsay.
He will feel a lot for the Indianapolis fans, but Peyton will want to show that the Colts were wrong to let him go two years ago, even if they did pick up Andrew Luck.
I think Luck will have his successes too, but he doesn't have the same reliable options as Peyton, not outside of Reggie Wayne anyway. He was killed by drops last Monday against San Diego and it will be tough for him to keep up with Manning if Luck has to settle for Field Goals.
The added motivation from Irsay's comments should motivate Peyton Manning and I like Denver to win this one and cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants Pick: I must need my head testing a little bit, but I like the New York Giants to win this game and cover the spread although this has the potential of being a high-scoring game.
The Giants have had a few extra days to prepare for the game and are also taking on a team that will be starting Josh Freeman for the first time. It may take Freeman a little time to really get on the same page as his Receivers and that could be a problem if the Giants can contain Adrian Peterson to some level.
Eli Manning may just get a little more time in this game if Brandon Jacobs continue pounding the ball as effectively as he did last week, while Minnesota's Secondary have lost their best player in Harrison Smith.
The Vikings have been torched at times through the air and despite the struggles early in the season, Eli Manning does have a plethora of talented Receivers that should win their battles against the Defense.
Both Quarter Backs can be guilty of throwing Interceptions, but I just feel the Giants are going to have more sustained success and have more potential for hitting the big play. That may be enough to record a win by a Touchdown in this one.
MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 9.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 3.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The Atlanta Falcons had a Super Bowl appearance in mind this season, but injuries have ravaged a side that is 1-4 as they come out of their bye and they know a loss here would effectively end their chances.
A once powerful Offense will be missing Roddy White and Julio Jones, although the bye would have allowed Matt Ryan to get on the same page as the likely replacements like Harry Douglas. Steven Jackson may miss another game at Running Back, but Tony Gonzalez is still in the line up and Atlanta should be able to move the ball through the air with the way Tampa Bay have defended the pass.
It will all be on Ryan though as the Buccaneers have been tough to run against, while the Falcons Defense has to step up.
They have struggled to get pressure and need to find a way to at least rattle rookie Mike Glennon in his first road start in the pro ranks. Glennon found a rapport with Vincent Jackson last week and I can see the pair hooking up for big gains in this one if the Falcons struggle up front as they did against the New York Jets in Week 5.
Doug Martin may also find a little more running room, but it is going to be tough for the Buccaneers to win here considering how often they have shot themselves in the foot this season. They should have won at least 2 of their games so far, but bonehead decisions or poor mistakes have cost them and I think the Falcons off a bye will win this game despite the injuries.
Atlanta did lose at home to Tampa Bay last season, but that was after they had already secured the Number 1 seed in the NFC and they had won 4 in a row before that. The Falcons are also 4-2 against the spread off their bye.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: It seems that Rob Gronkowski is ready to return for the New England Patriots and Tom Brady will be very happy to have his top target back in the line up although we may not see the best of their chemistry until a couple more games are played.
This is not an easy game for the Patriots as the New York Jets have the kind of Defense that can certainly make life tough for Brady. They get a ton of pressure up front through the likes of Muhammed Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson and the Patriots Offensive Line has struggled at times to protect Brady.
Rex Ryan will certainly try to flummox Brady in the pocket by sending pressure from different angles, while the Jets should do a better job containing Stevan Ridley than the New Orleans Saints did last week. New York only allow 3 yards per carry, while the pass Defense will be helped if the Patriot Receivers keep dropping the ball.
Geno Smith had another bad week last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and continues to play erratically which is expected of a rookie. He was troubled by Bill Belichick in Week 2 as he threw Interceptions in the critical fourth quarter and he has to give his Defense more points to defend while also limiting mistakes and forcing the Patriots to have extended drives to score points.
Smith will be helped by the injuries on the Defensive side of the ball for New England with Aqib Talib expected to miss out along with Vince Wilfork and Jared Mayo. That should keep the pocket a little cleaner for Smith, while the Receivers may have more chance to find themselves open without Talib covering them as he has been exceptional all season.
New Orleans showed it is easier to run the ball against the Patriots now the big body of Wilfork is out and the Jets should at least keep this close.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Miami Dolphins are coming off a bye week and they will be hoping they have fixed some of the issues on the Offensive Line if they are to reach some of the expectations that a 3-0 run to start the season will raise.
The Dolphins are in line to set a season record for number of sacks allowed and the likes of Mario Williams will be licking his lips with anticipation to get after Ryan Tannehill in this one. Buffalo should get plenty of players in the backfield and it will be tough for the Quarter Back to find time to find Mike Wallace deep.
Buffalo's Secondary have struggled against the pass, but they are getting healthier on that front while Miami have struggled to run the ball all season and are not expected to rip big chunks on the ground either.
It will be tough for Miami to move the chains consistently, but the same could be said for Buffalo despite Thaddeus Lewis making his second start after suffering an injury last week. Lewis will have Stevie Johnson back to give him another Receiving threat, but he will need his Offensive Line to play better than they have.
Like when Miami have the ball, Buffalo will also struggle to protect the Quarter Back against this fierce Miami pass rush now that Cameron Wake is back from a three week absence. The Dolphins have given up big numbers through the air, but they have played some decent Quarter Backs in that time, although Thad Lewis will also lean on CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson to get some yards on the ground.
I have never really liked Miami in a position as a favourite, and this looks a lot of points to give up in a game where the Offense could again struggle for consistency without decent O-Line play.
St Louis Rams @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I must need my head checked for liking the Carolina Panthers in a spot where they are the big favourites to beat the St Louis Rams, but that is the situation I find myself in this week.
The Panthers and the Rams are both coming in to this game off the back of big wins on the road last week, but it is a tough spot for St Louis in the second of back to back road games. However, that can be nullified by the fact that Carolina have a Division game to play against Tampa Bay in just four days time.
Zac Stacy did give St Louis a semblance of a rushing attack last week against Houston, but he faces another tough battle this week against a Panthers Defense giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. Sam Bradford is going to have carry the Rams on his back again this week, but he has been looking better the last couple of weeks after that terrible game against San Francisco in Week 4.
Bradford will be able to have success passing against Carolina, but the Panthers get a lot of pressure up front an the likes of Greg Hardy will be able to break through this Offensive Line to keep Bradford scrambling.
On the other side of the ball, I can't guess which Cam Newton is going to turn up this week- if he goes back to rushing the ball and giving Defenses something else to worry about, Carolina should have success moving the ball on the ground against a St Louis team that have been gashed by a couple of different teams by running the ball this season.
That would open things up in the Secondary for Newton to exploit, although the Quarter Back has been erratic at times this season. That would normally open things up for the Panthers to win this game by at least ten points, although Carolina can't always been trusted.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: It might be a non-Conference game for the San Francisco 49ers, but they will look to carry their momentum from the last three weeks forward and keep the pressure on the Seattle Seahawks at the top of the NFC West.
It does seem a good time for them to face the Tennessee Titans with Jake Locker getting healthier but unlikely to be risked in this game as he recovers from injury. Tennessee will be heading into a bye week following this game so it is very likely that they give Locker an extra week to get healthy.
That means the pressure is on Ryan Fitzpatrick to make the plays to win the game and I don't trust he will be able to get the job done. Fitzpatrick will engineer a couple of nice drives during the game, but he is also liable to throwing a pick or two that will see his team fall from positions of strength.
I will be expecting San Francisco to keep pounding the ball and then look for Colin Kaepernick to make a couple of big plays to either Anquan Boldin or Vernon Davis to score Touchdowns.
One thing that does concern me is the poor record against the spread teams have the week before they are due to visit London for the International Series game and that is the position San Francisco find themselves in this week. However, the spread has come down to a level where I like the 49ers to force a turnover or two from Fitzpatrick and cover the spread.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: This is a really important game for the Kansas City Chiefs to show they are very capable in the AFC and they will know the importance of knocking off a potential Wild Card rival later on in the year.
Both Defensive units will feel they are the stronger units playing in this game, but Kansas City have the experienced Quarter Back and that could make a big difference.
Smith should feel comfortable in his surroundings and will be happy to use the short passes to try and move the ball up the field, while also avoiding the mistakes to give his Defense the chance to do their thing.
On the other hand, Case Keenum is making his first professional start in a very tough atmosphere at Arrowhead and Houston could find themselves in a tough spot if they fall into a big hole as they did last week.
The rookie will need his established Running Backs to keep Houston in manageable third down situations, but Kansas City's Defense will be looking to introduce him to the NFL when they get a chance. It's a tough spot for Houston who will go into their bye after this one and I can't see them staying within the number in this one.
Cleveland Browns @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers have been a strong home favourite to back in the last few years and I do think they have a real chance of knocking off the Cleveland Browns by double digits.
The biggest concern for the Packers has to be their recent willingness to accept Field Goals over Touchdowns as drives have become bogged down when they get close to the opposition end zone.
Still, even Field Goals may be enough to beat the Cleveland Browns as they have struggled for consistency with Brandon Weeden at the Quarter Back position and he has been close to making mistakes that could see Cleveland seriously punished by somebody.
Cleveland are unlikely to establish a ground game meaning Weeden has to force the throws and the Packers Defense may just improve their Interception statistics in this game.
This might not be a Conference game for the Packers and they may have a big game at Minnesota next up on deck, but I still like Green Bay to win this one and cover the spread.
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: This was always going to be Peyton Manning's day as the fans were going to welcome him back with open arms and at first it looked like perhaps this was too many points to be laying with the home team.
However, Jim Irsay's comments which almost wiped out the impact Manning had for the Indianapolis Colts has surprised many people and must have hurt Peyton. I have seen so often in the NFL a player really use a perceived slight as a real motivation to play his best game and Manning has the personnel at his disposal to punish Irsay.
He will feel a lot for the Indianapolis fans, but Peyton will want to show that the Colts were wrong to let him go two years ago, even if they did pick up Andrew Luck.
I think Luck will have his successes too, but he doesn't have the same reliable options as Peyton, not outside of Reggie Wayne anyway. He was killed by drops last Monday against San Diego and it will be tough for him to keep up with Manning if Luck has to settle for Field Goals.
The added motivation from Irsay's comments should motivate Peyton Manning and I like Denver to win this one and cover the spread.
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants Pick: I must need my head testing a little bit, but I like the New York Giants to win this game and cover the spread although this has the potential of being a high-scoring game.
The Giants have had a few extra days to prepare for the game and are also taking on a team that will be starting Josh Freeman for the first time. It may take Freeman a little time to really get on the same page as his Receivers and that could be a problem if the Giants can contain Adrian Peterson to some level.
Eli Manning may just get a little more time in this game if Brandon Jacobs continue pounding the ball as effectively as he did last week, while Minnesota's Secondary have lost their best player in Harrison Smith.
The Vikings have been torched at times through the air and despite the struggles early in the season, Eli Manning does have a plethora of talented Receivers that should win their battles against the Defense.
Both Quarter Backs can be guilty of throwing Interceptions, but I just feel the Giants are going to have more sustained success and have more potential for hitting the big play. That may be enough to record a win by a Touchdown in this one.
MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 9.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants - 3.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 27-23-1, + 3.33 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
Saturday, 12 October 2013
College Football Week 7 Picks 2013 (October 12th)
It has been one of those weeks when it seems I haven't had enough hours in a day to manage my time properly... That is the sole reason these picks have come out today and not last night as I would have usually put them up, but that also means I have given myself sufficient time to research the nine picks I have for this week.
Texas Longhorns v Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The game is being played on a neutral field in Dallas for the latest instalment of the Red River Rivalry and the suggestion is this will be Mack Brown's last time facing Oklahoma Sooners as the Head Coach of the Texas Longhorns.
Losing David Ash is a problem for Texas as they take on this inconsistent Oklahoma Offense, especially as the Longhorns have continued to struggle in containing teams rushing against them. The Sooners will likely pound the ball down their throat and that should give Blake Bell a little more time with the option to play-action and also run the read option.
It will be tough for Texas to keep up if they get into a hole with the Sooners pass Defense being the strength of that unit and I think Longhorns may have to eat their fourth straight loss in the series.
Oklahoma are 5-2 against the spread on a neutral field while the Longhorns are 2-5 and I'm backing the Sooners in this one.
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: It seems a lot of people like the Nebraska Cornhuskers this weekend and that has seen the spread rise above the two Touchdown mark, although I have them as a 17-21 point winner here, but that has come back down as we reach the morning of the game.
Purdue have struggled to stop Offenses both on the ground and through the air and it is a lot to ask of their freshman starting Quarter Back to keep up with the powerful Nebraska team.
One concern is that by running the ball, Nebraska will be shortening the game and the backdoor cover could be on, but the Cornhuskers should be able to build a decent size lead in this one by ripping off large chunks of yardage at a time. I also believe Nebraska will win the turnover battle in this one and that could be enough to see them over the spread with the extra possessions that come their way.
Nebraska also have a bye coming up following this game so they can focus completely on getting up to 2-0 in the Conference and I like the Cornhuskers to do that in style.
Memphis Tigers @ Houston Cougars Pick: Memphis put in a huge effort to fall just short against the UCF Knights at home last weekend and I think this is a big ask for them to repeat that at the high-scoring Houston Cougars on the road this time.
Houston have bashed up Memphis the last couple of times these schools have played one another, although the Cougars have lost the likes of Case Keenum since then. That hasn't stopped the Cougars putting up a bunch of points this season though.
The Tigers will feel they can slow the Houston rushing game a little bit as they have only allowed 3.2 yards per carry on the season, but the Cougars are just as capable of throwing the ball and don't turn the ball over a lot.
With the Cougars moving up and down the field, Memphis will be able to match them somewhat against a pass Defense that has allowed 280 yards per game so far. The Tigers will have to be careful of the pressure that Houston get up front though, and also the fact that a ball-hawking Secondary can turn the ball over.
It may come down to an Interception that helps the Cougars cover here and I like them to take advantage of a team that may have left too much on the field last week.
Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick: Texas Tech have been one of the most fun teams to watch in College Football to open the season and I like their chances to maintain their unbeaten start against an Iowa State Cyclones team that was so close to the upset over Texas Longhorns last week.
The Red Raiders haven't been that effective at running the ball, but have been able to sling it around and pick up yards through the air without too many problems. They now face a Defense that is almost allowing 250 yards per game through the air, although one that should be able to pressure either Baker Mayfield or Davis Webb who will line up for the Red Raiders at Quarter Back.
On the other hand, Iowa State will certainly feel they can keep this competitive with their own ability to thrown the ball as they have put up huge numbers through the air. Interceptions have been an issue, but that is one area where Texas Tech haven't excelled in the early part of the season.
Iowa State's ground game should also get back on track, as long as they stay within touching distance of the Red Raiders, although they also have to find a way to punch in scores against a Defense that is playing very well.
Coming off a performance where they fell just short against one of the better teams in the Big 12 Conference is a tough spot for Iowa State and I do think Texas Tech pull the win and cover.
Baylor Bears @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: The Baylor Bears have been a brilliant team to watch if you love Offense and they are likely to be a little too good for Kansas State in this one as I can't see the latter doing enough to slow them down.
If Baylor get in front, it could become a vicious circle for the Wildcats as they will have to throw to stay in the game and that will give the Bears the chance to unleash their pass rush.
If Daniel Sims begins to feel pressure, that will lead to mistakes and Baylor have turned the ball over to create extra possessions for Bryce Petty and the Offense who have scored plenty of points as they don't settle for Field Goals.
I think it is a big ask for a young Quarter Back to match the output that Baylor are going to have in this game and Kansas State are also off the back of a couple of heartbreaking losses in Conference play. There will be a real feeling that Kansas State should have won one, if not both, of those games and they could have a much harder time keeping up with the Bears in this one.
Florida Gators @ LSU Tigers Pick: This should be a fascinating battle between the LSU Tigers Offense and the Florida Gators Defense and that is one I am looking forward to watching on Saturday evening.
I really like the way Cam Cameron has this Offense playing and I certainly think they will score points in this one despite Florida being so tough on the Defensive side of the ball. I think Zach Mettenberger has looked comfortable in the Offense and he has limited his mistakes which has been a huge factor.
It will be interesting to see how he limits those mistakes against a Defense that has prided itself in taking the ball away from their opponents. At home, I think Mettenberger will be able to make enough plays to keep the chains moving and using Jeremy Hill to keep the Defense honest.
The difference could be made by a Tigers Defense that could force Tyler Murphy into a couple of mistakes in the Quarter Back's toughest road test. This is a hard place for experienced Quarter Backs to come and play and I believe Murphy may make a couple of mental mistakes that could give the Tigers the extra possessions to seal the deal.
LSU have struggled to make the plays in turning the ball over, but I can see them creating one turnover towards the end of the game that helps the Tigers see off the Gators.
Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Michigan have been a little erratic at times and some may have jumped off their bandwagon after a couple of really bad performances against Akron and Connecticut.
Playing at Happy Valley is never an easy prospect for visiting teams, but this is a young Penn State team that may struggle to avoid the mistakes that cost them in this game against a Big Ten rival.
Devin Gardner is the key to the performance as he has shown some flashes of a real quality Quarter Back, but then had back to back bad performances against the schools mentioned. He will need to be careful in this one as the turnover battle is likely to be a real key in the contest.
The Wolverines are the more talented team on both sides of the ball and I do believe they will turn the ball over to stop a key Penn State drive and help maintain their unbeaten start to the new season.
Stanford Cardinal @ Utah Utes Pick: This is a fascinating game between Pac-12 rivals and will give us a good indication as to where Stanford Cardinal are as a team... The Utah Utes were beaten in a tight game against the UCLA Bruins last week, but they will set a test for a team that is hoping to reach the National Championship Game after being pretty close the last couple of years.
It has been over 15 years since these schools have played one another and a lot has changed since those times as Stanford are now one of the powerhouses in College Football.
The Utes should be able to throw the ball with some success against the Cardinal Defense, but will be faced with some pressure up front which can lead to mistakes like Interceptions. That is how the 'bend, but don't break' system of Stanford has been successful this season, especially if they continuing shutting down the ground attack where they have limited teams to 3.5 yards per carry.
Utah's Defense have also been effective at shutting down the run game, but this Offensive Line will be the toughest one they have seen and Stanford are capable of opening up some holes.
That will be the key for Stanford if they are to win this game as that can slow down the pass rush that Utah will send, especially considering the Cardinal have more rushing yards than yards through the air. Kevin Hogan hasn't had a huge game yet for Stanford at the Quarter Back position, but Utah give up almost 275 yards per game through aerial attacks and one that hasn't been able to turn the ball over.
This should be close, but I have a little more respect for the Stanford team than this tough Utah one. I also like the fact that Stanford are 10-3 against the spread as the road favourite in the last couple of years.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: I am expecting both teams to move the ball throughout this contest and both should score their fair share of points in what could be another SEC shoot-out in what has been a strange season for that Conference.
Both Texas A&M and Mississippi will have a lot of faith in their Offense coming into this one, but both will be hoping to see some improvements from the Defensive side of the ball.
Texas A&M should be able to find the edge from the fact that they are coming off a bye and their Defense has been a little more comfortable picking up Interceptions. This game has all the making of one that could be settled by the winner of the turnover battle and I am giving the Aggies an edge on that front.
The Rebels are off a couple of very disappointing losses and they may just struggle to contain Johnny Manziel- I do like the Aggies to cover the spread in this one.
MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 9 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 6: 3-5, - 2.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)
Week 5; 6-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 4: 2-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)
Season 2013: 26-20-1, + 4.56 Units (47 Units Staked, + 9.7% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
Texas Longhorns v Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The game is being played on a neutral field in Dallas for the latest instalment of the Red River Rivalry and the suggestion is this will be Mack Brown's last time facing Oklahoma Sooners as the Head Coach of the Texas Longhorns.
Losing David Ash is a problem for Texas as they take on this inconsistent Oklahoma Offense, especially as the Longhorns have continued to struggle in containing teams rushing against them. The Sooners will likely pound the ball down their throat and that should give Blake Bell a little more time with the option to play-action and also run the read option.
It will be tough for Texas to keep up if they get into a hole with the Sooners pass Defense being the strength of that unit and I think Longhorns may have to eat their fourth straight loss in the series.
Oklahoma are 5-2 against the spread on a neutral field while the Longhorns are 2-5 and I'm backing the Sooners in this one.
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: It seems a lot of people like the Nebraska Cornhuskers this weekend and that has seen the spread rise above the two Touchdown mark, although I have them as a 17-21 point winner here, but that has come back down as we reach the morning of the game.
Purdue have struggled to stop Offenses both on the ground and through the air and it is a lot to ask of their freshman starting Quarter Back to keep up with the powerful Nebraska team.
One concern is that by running the ball, Nebraska will be shortening the game and the backdoor cover could be on, but the Cornhuskers should be able to build a decent size lead in this one by ripping off large chunks of yardage at a time. I also believe Nebraska will win the turnover battle in this one and that could be enough to see them over the spread with the extra possessions that come their way.
Nebraska also have a bye coming up following this game so they can focus completely on getting up to 2-0 in the Conference and I like the Cornhuskers to do that in style.
Memphis Tigers @ Houston Cougars Pick: Memphis put in a huge effort to fall just short against the UCF Knights at home last weekend and I think this is a big ask for them to repeat that at the high-scoring Houston Cougars on the road this time.
Houston have bashed up Memphis the last couple of times these schools have played one another, although the Cougars have lost the likes of Case Keenum since then. That hasn't stopped the Cougars putting up a bunch of points this season though.
The Tigers will feel they can slow the Houston rushing game a little bit as they have only allowed 3.2 yards per carry on the season, but the Cougars are just as capable of throwing the ball and don't turn the ball over a lot.
With the Cougars moving up and down the field, Memphis will be able to match them somewhat against a pass Defense that has allowed 280 yards per game so far. The Tigers will have to be careful of the pressure that Houston get up front though, and also the fact that a ball-hawking Secondary can turn the ball over.
It may come down to an Interception that helps the Cougars cover here and I like them to take advantage of a team that may have left too much on the field last week.
Iowa State Cyclones @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick: Texas Tech have been one of the most fun teams to watch in College Football to open the season and I like their chances to maintain their unbeaten start against an Iowa State Cyclones team that was so close to the upset over Texas Longhorns last week.
The Red Raiders haven't been that effective at running the ball, but have been able to sling it around and pick up yards through the air without too many problems. They now face a Defense that is almost allowing 250 yards per game through the air, although one that should be able to pressure either Baker Mayfield or Davis Webb who will line up for the Red Raiders at Quarter Back.
On the other hand, Iowa State will certainly feel they can keep this competitive with their own ability to thrown the ball as they have put up huge numbers through the air. Interceptions have been an issue, but that is one area where Texas Tech haven't excelled in the early part of the season.
Iowa State's ground game should also get back on track, as long as they stay within touching distance of the Red Raiders, although they also have to find a way to punch in scores against a Defense that is playing very well.
Coming off a performance where they fell just short against one of the better teams in the Big 12 Conference is a tough spot for Iowa State and I do think Texas Tech pull the win and cover.
Baylor Bears @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: The Baylor Bears have been a brilliant team to watch if you love Offense and they are likely to be a little too good for Kansas State in this one as I can't see the latter doing enough to slow them down.
If Baylor get in front, it could become a vicious circle for the Wildcats as they will have to throw to stay in the game and that will give the Bears the chance to unleash their pass rush.
If Daniel Sims begins to feel pressure, that will lead to mistakes and Baylor have turned the ball over to create extra possessions for Bryce Petty and the Offense who have scored plenty of points as they don't settle for Field Goals.
I think it is a big ask for a young Quarter Back to match the output that Baylor are going to have in this game and Kansas State are also off the back of a couple of heartbreaking losses in Conference play. There will be a real feeling that Kansas State should have won one, if not both, of those games and they could have a much harder time keeping up with the Bears in this one.
Florida Gators @ LSU Tigers Pick: This should be a fascinating battle between the LSU Tigers Offense and the Florida Gators Defense and that is one I am looking forward to watching on Saturday evening.
I really like the way Cam Cameron has this Offense playing and I certainly think they will score points in this one despite Florida being so tough on the Defensive side of the ball. I think Zach Mettenberger has looked comfortable in the Offense and he has limited his mistakes which has been a huge factor.
It will be interesting to see how he limits those mistakes against a Defense that has prided itself in taking the ball away from their opponents. At home, I think Mettenberger will be able to make enough plays to keep the chains moving and using Jeremy Hill to keep the Defense honest.
The difference could be made by a Tigers Defense that could force Tyler Murphy into a couple of mistakes in the Quarter Back's toughest road test. This is a hard place for experienced Quarter Backs to come and play and I believe Murphy may make a couple of mental mistakes that could give the Tigers the extra possessions to seal the deal.
LSU have struggled to make the plays in turning the ball over, but I can see them creating one turnover towards the end of the game that helps the Tigers see off the Gators.
Michigan Wolverines @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: Michigan have been a little erratic at times and some may have jumped off their bandwagon after a couple of really bad performances against Akron and Connecticut.
Playing at Happy Valley is never an easy prospect for visiting teams, but this is a young Penn State team that may struggle to avoid the mistakes that cost them in this game against a Big Ten rival.
Devin Gardner is the key to the performance as he has shown some flashes of a real quality Quarter Back, but then had back to back bad performances against the schools mentioned. He will need to be careful in this one as the turnover battle is likely to be a real key in the contest.
The Wolverines are the more talented team on both sides of the ball and I do believe they will turn the ball over to stop a key Penn State drive and help maintain their unbeaten start to the new season.
Stanford Cardinal @ Utah Utes Pick: This is a fascinating game between Pac-12 rivals and will give us a good indication as to where Stanford Cardinal are as a team... The Utah Utes were beaten in a tight game against the UCLA Bruins last week, but they will set a test for a team that is hoping to reach the National Championship Game after being pretty close the last couple of years.
It has been over 15 years since these schools have played one another and a lot has changed since those times as Stanford are now one of the powerhouses in College Football.
The Utes should be able to throw the ball with some success against the Cardinal Defense, but will be faced with some pressure up front which can lead to mistakes like Interceptions. That is how the 'bend, but don't break' system of Stanford has been successful this season, especially if they continuing shutting down the ground attack where they have limited teams to 3.5 yards per carry.
Utah's Defense have also been effective at shutting down the run game, but this Offensive Line will be the toughest one they have seen and Stanford are capable of opening up some holes.
That will be the key for Stanford if they are to win this game as that can slow down the pass rush that Utah will send, especially considering the Cardinal have more rushing yards than yards through the air. Kevin Hogan hasn't had a huge game yet for Stanford at the Quarter Back position, but Utah give up almost 275 yards per game through aerial attacks and one that hasn't been able to turn the ball over.
This should be close, but I have a little more respect for the Stanford team than this tough Utah one. I also like the fact that Stanford are 10-3 against the spread as the road favourite in the last couple of years.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: I am expecting both teams to move the ball throughout this contest and both should score their fair share of points in what could be another SEC shoot-out in what has been a strange season for that Conference.
Both Texas A&M and Mississippi will have a lot of faith in their Offense coming into this one, but both will be hoping to see some improvements from the Defensive side of the ball.
Texas A&M should be able to find the edge from the fact that they are coming off a bye and their Defense has been a little more comfortable picking up Interceptions. This game has all the making of one that could be settled by the winner of the turnover battle and I am giving the Aggies an edge on that front.
The Rebels are off a couple of very disappointing losses and they may just struggle to contain Johnny Manziel- I do like the Aggies to cover the spread in this one.
MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 9 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Texas Tech Red Raiders - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 7 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 6: 3-5, - 2.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 26% Yield)
Week 5; 6-2, + 3.66 Units (8 Units Staked, + 45.75% Yield)
Week 4: 2-6, - 4.08 Units (8 Units Staked, - 51% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2-1, + 2.77 Units (8 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 2: 6-2, + 3.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 44.38% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3, + 0.74 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.57% Yield)
Season 2013: 26-20-1, + 4.56 Units (47 Units Staked, + 9.7% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
Tennis Picks Shanghai Masters 2013 (October 12th)
It has to be considered a disappointing day when the picks go 1-2, but I am not quite sure how Novak Djokovic didn't find a couple of breaks of serve in the final set against Gael Monfils who looked out on his feet when I saw the match this evening.
It's not like he didn't have his chances with break points and chances at 0-30, but Novak didn't return as well as he can, while the first set was lost thanks to some poor serving.
However, we are still on for the Final that everyone is looking forward to between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, although both will need to come through tough Semi Final matches on Saturday.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Jo Wilfried-Tsonga: Novak Djokovic didn't serve well in the first set and could have returned better at points yesterday, but I expect a better performance from him against an opponent he has dominated in his most recent matches against him.
Djokovic has the tools to cancel out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's big game and the Frenchman can be guilty of losing his way mentally when he has come up against Djokovic in their recent matches. The shelling he took at the Indian Wells tournament earlier this season looks an exception, but there have been a number of 6-2 or better sets in favour of Djokovic in the last 6 matches between the players.
The courts in Shanghai will help Tsonga get the most out of his big forehand and heavy serve, but the backhand is far too hit and miss to challenge Djokovic and that means Tsonga has to dictate the points from start to finish if he is to hide his weakness from the match.
Tsonga's return of serve can also be below average at times and I think he may find Djokovic too good and I expect the Serb to come through 76, 62.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It was an impressive win for Juan Martin Del Potro over Nicolas Almagro yesterday and the Argentine is clearly in good form having won in Tokyo last week.
The win also almost guaranteed Del Potro a place at the World Tour Finals next month, but he may find it tough to back up his win against Rafael Nadal in this one. I still don't believe that Del Potro is at full health following his illness earlier this week and that should give Nadal a real edge in this match.
Del Potro's big serve will give him the chance to set up points in this match, although he has to be wary with the way Nadal has been playing and the manner in which he is crushing his own forehand. That has shown up on the quicker courts and there is no player in better form that Nadal at the moment.
Much like the first Semi Final, I can see the first set ending in a tie-break but won by the favourite and that may see the opponent lose their belief a touch and allow the favourite to pull away. Rafael Nadal has been looking after his own serve this week and I think he will prove to be a little too good for a slightly under par Del Potro and come through 76, 63.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-8, + 3.74 Units (32 Units Staked, + 11.69% Yield)
It's not like he didn't have his chances with break points and chances at 0-30, but Novak didn't return as well as he can, while the first set was lost thanks to some poor serving.
However, we are still on for the Final that everyone is looking forward to between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, although both will need to come through tough Semi Final matches on Saturday.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Jo Wilfried-Tsonga: Novak Djokovic didn't serve well in the first set and could have returned better at points yesterday, but I expect a better performance from him against an opponent he has dominated in his most recent matches against him.
Djokovic has the tools to cancel out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's big game and the Frenchman can be guilty of losing his way mentally when he has come up against Djokovic in their recent matches. The shelling he took at the Indian Wells tournament earlier this season looks an exception, but there have been a number of 6-2 or better sets in favour of Djokovic in the last 6 matches between the players.
The courts in Shanghai will help Tsonga get the most out of his big forehand and heavy serve, but the backhand is far too hit and miss to challenge Djokovic and that means Tsonga has to dictate the points from start to finish if he is to hide his weakness from the match.
Tsonga's return of serve can also be below average at times and I think he may find Djokovic too good and I expect the Serb to come through 76, 62.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It was an impressive win for Juan Martin Del Potro over Nicolas Almagro yesterday and the Argentine is clearly in good form having won in Tokyo last week.
The win also almost guaranteed Del Potro a place at the World Tour Finals next month, but he may find it tough to back up his win against Rafael Nadal in this one. I still don't believe that Del Potro is at full health following his illness earlier this week and that should give Nadal a real edge in this match.
Del Potro's big serve will give him the chance to set up points in this match, although he has to be wary with the way Nadal has been playing and the manner in which he is crushing his own forehand. That has shown up on the quicker courts and there is no player in better form that Nadal at the moment.
Much like the first Semi Final, I can see the first set ending in a tie-break but won by the favourite and that may see the opponent lose their belief a touch and allow the favourite to pull away. Rafael Nadal has been looking after his own serve this week and I think he will prove to be a little too good for a slightly under par Del Potro and come through 76, 63.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-8, + 3.74 Units (32 Units Staked, + 11.69% Yield)
Friday, 11 October 2013
World Cup Qualifiers 2013 (October 11th)
I am not a massive fan of the international weeks in football as I do feel there are too many of them which are largely pointless and there are too many mismatches during the qualifying rounds, particularly in Europe.
That is not the case when we get down to the last couple of matches as we then begin to see some tension and some real interest in what is going to happen and that is the situation this week. England are one of the 'big nations' that will be looking to stamp their passports to Brazil next summer, although they have to win their remaining two games at Wembley Stadium having failed to beat the best teams in their section over the last twelve months.
It is also a big week for a nation like Bosnia that have come very close to qualifying for a major international tournament in recent years, but fallen just short at the last hurdle. Bosnia need to match the points Greece get in the remaining two games of the Group if they are to automatically qualify for the World Cup and that may be their best opportunity as it is unlikely that they would be seeded in a potential Play Off.
The picture of qualification will certainly become clear after the Friday night qualifiers are completed and it should be a fascinating evening of football.
England v Montenegro Pick: There just seems to be a lot chaos around the England team at the minute which shows the scale of pressure which is on the home team to win their 2 remaining qualifiers and book a place in Brazil.
We have heard Harry Redknapp criticise the decision to appoint Roy Hodgson ahead of himself, while Jack Wilshire made some interesting comments over who should, and shouldn't, be eligible to play for England in the future.
It will be interesting to see how the England team respond to some of these issues and I can see this being a fairly tense night for the hosts. Montenegro are a hard team to play and, barring that result against Ukraine, they don't concede a lot of goals as they remain organised and resolute in the face of pressure.
England are also likely to be a little cautious with the way Roy Hodgson approaches games and I can see them looking to be solid too knowing that they have the whole game to get a goal. I do think there are goals in the England team with the way that Wayne Rooney and Daniel Sturridge have opened the season, but they may have to be patient at times.
I would be surprised if we see a dearth of goals in this one and this could easily be settled by just a solitary strike, but England seem to be one of these teams that play spectacular football one game and can be turgid another.
Joe Hart does concern me, but I do think England can win this one with a clean sheet to boot.
Netherlands v Hungary Pick: The Netherlands have continued to be a dominating team at home and I think they will prove to be too strong for a Hungary team that may get a little desperate searching for goals as the game develops.
There is little doubt that Romania will beat Andorra on Friday and are very likely to beat Estonia at home next week which means Hungary have to really win their remaining two games if they are to finish behind the Netherlands and earn a place in the Play Offs.
If they are behind, or level, in the remaining stages, there is a chance that Hungary could over-commit players and allow Holland to strike on the counter. The Netherlands have also scored plenty of goals in their home qualifiers and they haven't conceded any here which makes the 1.5 Asian Handicap appeal all the more.
At odds against, I think Holland to win this by a couple of goals is the call.
Germany v Republic of Ireland Pick: The one element of the Republic of Ireland game you have to respect is the defensive organisation they have displayed away from home, although the departure of Giovanni Trapattoni will have taken away some of the tactical nous in picking up results at tough away venues.
Noel King will take charge for this game and he couldn't have asked for a much tougher test as they face the Group leaders who have the motivation to seal their place in Brazil. Germany have scored plenty of goals at home and would have won all 4 games easily here if it wasn't for the ridiculous collapse from 4-0 up to a 4-4 draw with Sweden.
Germany have won the other 3 games by at least 3 goals and I believe their motivation for booking their ticket to Brazil, and the uncertainty in the Ireland camp, should allow the Germans to win this one in a little bit of style.
Sweden v Austria Pick: When we get down to the last couple of rounds of the qualifiers, there is always going to be tension, particularly in games like this where there is two years work on the line.
That is the case for Sweden and Austria who will either be getting excited about potentially having the chance to play in Brazil in a World Cup next summer or wondering how much hard work has been wasted.
Both teams will be a little cautious- it is a strange situation where the draw could be seen as a result that will set up either team to go through, while a win brings a lot of benefits. Austria will know that Germany are capable of winning in Sweden, but they also know a win can at least put their own destiny in their hands without having to rely on a favour from a neighbouring country.
Germany have helped Austria out in the past, most famously in the 1982 World Cup, but all of this will be a moot point if Sweden can pick up the win. Sweden have been a strong home team in the qualifying round and will feel confident they can earn the win in this one to book a Play Off place without the worry of having to earn something against Germany next week.
It is Austria's poor record on their travels in competitive games that has me believing in Sweden's chances of grabbing the 3 points in this one. The odds are not the greatest, but I do favour Sweden enough to take those on the home win.
MY PICKS: England to Win to Nil @ 2.10 Coral (1 Unit)
Netherlands - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Germany - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Sweden @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
October Update: 9-6-1, + 9.78 Units (22 Units Staked, + 44.45% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
That is not the case when we get down to the last couple of matches as we then begin to see some tension and some real interest in what is going to happen and that is the situation this week. England are one of the 'big nations' that will be looking to stamp their passports to Brazil next summer, although they have to win their remaining two games at Wembley Stadium having failed to beat the best teams in their section over the last twelve months.
It is also a big week for a nation like Bosnia that have come very close to qualifying for a major international tournament in recent years, but fallen just short at the last hurdle. Bosnia need to match the points Greece get in the remaining two games of the Group if they are to automatically qualify for the World Cup and that may be their best opportunity as it is unlikely that they would be seeded in a potential Play Off.
The picture of qualification will certainly become clear after the Friday night qualifiers are completed and it should be a fascinating evening of football.
England v Montenegro Pick: There just seems to be a lot chaos around the England team at the minute which shows the scale of pressure which is on the home team to win their 2 remaining qualifiers and book a place in Brazil.
We have heard Harry Redknapp criticise the decision to appoint Roy Hodgson ahead of himself, while Jack Wilshire made some interesting comments over who should, and shouldn't, be eligible to play for England in the future.
It will be interesting to see how the England team respond to some of these issues and I can see this being a fairly tense night for the hosts. Montenegro are a hard team to play and, barring that result against Ukraine, they don't concede a lot of goals as they remain organised and resolute in the face of pressure.
England are also likely to be a little cautious with the way Roy Hodgson approaches games and I can see them looking to be solid too knowing that they have the whole game to get a goal. I do think there are goals in the England team with the way that Wayne Rooney and Daniel Sturridge have opened the season, but they may have to be patient at times.
I would be surprised if we see a dearth of goals in this one and this could easily be settled by just a solitary strike, but England seem to be one of these teams that play spectacular football one game and can be turgid another.
Joe Hart does concern me, but I do think England can win this one with a clean sheet to boot.
Netherlands v Hungary Pick: The Netherlands have continued to be a dominating team at home and I think they will prove to be too strong for a Hungary team that may get a little desperate searching for goals as the game develops.
There is little doubt that Romania will beat Andorra on Friday and are very likely to beat Estonia at home next week which means Hungary have to really win their remaining two games if they are to finish behind the Netherlands and earn a place in the Play Offs.
If they are behind, or level, in the remaining stages, there is a chance that Hungary could over-commit players and allow Holland to strike on the counter. The Netherlands have also scored plenty of goals in their home qualifiers and they haven't conceded any here which makes the 1.5 Asian Handicap appeal all the more.
At odds against, I think Holland to win this by a couple of goals is the call.
Germany v Republic of Ireland Pick: The one element of the Republic of Ireland game you have to respect is the defensive organisation they have displayed away from home, although the departure of Giovanni Trapattoni will have taken away some of the tactical nous in picking up results at tough away venues.
Noel King will take charge for this game and he couldn't have asked for a much tougher test as they face the Group leaders who have the motivation to seal their place in Brazil. Germany have scored plenty of goals at home and would have won all 4 games easily here if it wasn't for the ridiculous collapse from 4-0 up to a 4-4 draw with Sweden.
Germany have won the other 3 games by at least 3 goals and I believe their motivation for booking their ticket to Brazil, and the uncertainty in the Ireland camp, should allow the Germans to win this one in a little bit of style.
Sweden v Austria Pick: When we get down to the last couple of rounds of the qualifiers, there is always going to be tension, particularly in games like this where there is two years work on the line.
That is the case for Sweden and Austria who will either be getting excited about potentially having the chance to play in Brazil in a World Cup next summer or wondering how much hard work has been wasted.
Both teams will be a little cautious- it is a strange situation where the draw could be seen as a result that will set up either team to go through, while a win brings a lot of benefits. Austria will know that Germany are capable of winning in Sweden, but they also know a win can at least put their own destiny in their hands without having to rely on a favour from a neighbouring country.
Germany have helped Austria out in the past, most famously in the 1982 World Cup, but all of this will be a moot point if Sweden can pick up the win. Sweden have been a strong home team in the qualifying round and will feel confident they can earn the win in this one to book a Play Off place without the worry of having to earn something against Germany next week.
It is Austria's poor record on their travels in competitive games that has me believing in Sweden's chances of grabbing the 3 points in this one. The odds are not the greatest, but I do favour Sweden enough to take those on the home win.
MY PICKS: England to Win to Nil @ 2.10 Coral (1 Unit)
Netherlands - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Germany - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Sweden @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
October Update: 9-6-1, + 9.78 Units (22 Units Staked, + 44.45% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tennis Picks Shanghai Masters 2013 (October 11th)
It was a strange Thursday in Shanghai as a number of underdogs proceeded to make matches competitive, while some even went as far as to pull the upset.
That didn't help the picks although it has still been a strong week so far as we reach the Quarter Final stage of the penultimate Masters tournament of the season.
We also have been given a little more clarity as to which players will be going through to London for the World Tour Finals next month- Stanislas Wawrinka had a very important win over Milos Raonic which will give him a strong opportunity to get through to his first end of season appearance.
Interestingly, he will also be moving ahead of Roger Federer in terms of points earned this season after the former World Number 1 was beaten in the Third Round yesterday and that has once again raised questions as to how long Federer will continue playing.
It is about as low as his confidence has been since he started winning Grand Slam titles and even three/four years ago, there was a different feel to watching Federer- back then he may not have been hanging with the likes of Rafael Nadal, but he wasn't losing as many matches against players he would have walked through as he is these days.
Gael Monfils isn't an average player, but he hasn't shown a lot in 2013 and other defeats to the likes of Daniel Brands, Sergiy Stakhovsky and Federico Delbonis are certainly more worrying than the one he had yesterday. Federer's confidence looks shot and he is now in a battle to make it to London at the end of the season, although he does benefit from the fact that Andy Murray has pulled out of the tournament.
I don't think anyone should tell Federer when it is time to hang up his racquet for good, but it will be interesting to see what his motivation will be to continue as he is quite a way behind the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Murray when it comes to potential Grand Slam winners, including at his beloved Wimbledon, and the drop in the Ranking just puts up more obstacles in front of him.
For now, Federer will get to spend some time at home before the Basel tournament and then he will head to Paris in a bid to get the points he needs to finish in the top 9 of the Race to London.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: It will take three really good weeks from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if he is to get involved in the World Tour Finals and he has a big chance to add some more points to his total by coming through this Quarter Final.
Tsonga met Florian Mayer in one of his first matches after recovering from injury which took away three months of the Frenchman's season and he had to come back from a set down to get the job done a couple of weeks ago.
I don't think Tsonga will need to go the distance this time although I don't want to under-estimate Mayer for the second time after his impressive and fairly comfortable win over David Ferrer yesterday. However, Tsonga's big game should work perfectly on these faster courts, although I am a little concerned with the return game of Tsonga which can be erratic at best.
The big first serve should set up easier points for Tsonga and I believe he should be able to come through 63, 76 as long as he doesn't waste the break point chances that come his way.
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: The fans might not have been too happy to see Tommy Haas pull out of his Third Round match yesterday, but Juan Martin Del Potro would have been very happy to have the rest and recuperation time that that afforded him.
Del Potro has been suffering from a flu/cold, while he also played a lot of tennis last week and the extra day off will have aided him in his recovery, although he now faces a pretty tough test in the form of Nicolas Almagro in this Quarter Final.
The two players met in the Semi Final in Tokyo last week and it took two tie-breakers to help Del Potro go through on the way to winning the tournament and this could be another close game between them. The courts will aid both players who have big serves and heavy groundstrokes and breaks of serve could certainly be a luxury in this one.
It will be interesting to see how Almagro comes out after winning a tight Third Round match against Tomas Berdych- it was a fairly long match and with less than a day of rest, it can be tough for players to pick up their play. Neither player is likely to play with a full tank, but Almagro certainly has been playing well enough to keep this very competitive.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Gael Monfils: It was a strong display from Gael Monfils to see off Roger Federer in the Third Round, but the level certainly rises another level as he takes on Novak Djokovic in this third Quarter Final.
There was a slight injury concern for Monfils in the win over Federer, but I wouldn't read too much into that if he does take the court despite the number of injury problems he has had over the last eighteen months and this is likely to be a fascinating match.
I don't think Monfils will be able to rely on the serve to bail him out in the same manner it did yesterday as Djokovic is a far better returner than Federer is and I can see the World Number 2 forcing the Frenchman to win the points and not give up too many cheap points.
After such a big win for Monfils yesterday, it wouldn't surprise me if he struggled to match that intensity in this one and I like Djokovic to win this 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 6.04 Units (26 Units Staked, + 23.23% Yield)
That didn't help the picks although it has still been a strong week so far as we reach the Quarter Final stage of the penultimate Masters tournament of the season.
We also have been given a little more clarity as to which players will be going through to London for the World Tour Finals next month- Stanislas Wawrinka had a very important win over Milos Raonic which will give him a strong opportunity to get through to his first end of season appearance.
Interestingly, he will also be moving ahead of Roger Federer in terms of points earned this season after the former World Number 1 was beaten in the Third Round yesterday and that has once again raised questions as to how long Federer will continue playing.
It is about as low as his confidence has been since he started winning Grand Slam titles and even three/four years ago, there was a different feel to watching Federer- back then he may not have been hanging with the likes of Rafael Nadal, but he wasn't losing as many matches against players he would have walked through as he is these days.
Gael Monfils isn't an average player, but he hasn't shown a lot in 2013 and other defeats to the likes of Daniel Brands, Sergiy Stakhovsky and Federico Delbonis are certainly more worrying than the one he had yesterday. Federer's confidence looks shot and he is now in a battle to make it to London at the end of the season, although he does benefit from the fact that Andy Murray has pulled out of the tournament.
I don't think anyone should tell Federer when it is time to hang up his racquet for good, but it will be interesting to see what his motivation will be to continue as he is quite a way behind the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Murray when it comes to potential Grand Slam winners, including at his beloved Wimbledon, and the drop in the Ranking just puts up more obstacles in front of him.
For now, Federer will get to spend some time at home before the Basel tournament and then he will head to Paris in a bid to get the points he needs to finish in the top 9 of the Race to London.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: It will take three really good weeks from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if he is to get involved in the World Tour Finals and he has a big chance to add some more points to his total by coming through this Quarter Final.
Tsonga met Florian Mayer in one of his first matches after recovering from injury which took away three months of the Frenchman's season and he had to come back from a set down to get the job done a couple of weeks ago.
I don't think Tsonga will need to go the distance this time although I don't want to under-estimate Mayer for the second time after his impressive and fairly comfortable win over David Ferrer yesterday. However, Tsonga's big game should work perfectly on these faster courts, although I am a little concerned with the return game of Tsonga which can be erratic at best.
The big first serve should set up easier points for Tsonga and I believe he should be able to come through 63, 76 as long as he doesn't waste the break point chances that come his way.
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: The fans might not have been too happy to see Tommy Haas pull out of his Third Round match yesterday, but Juan Martin Del Potro would have been very happy to have the rest and recuperation time that that afforded him.
Del Potro has been suffering from a flu/cold, while he also played a lot of tennis last week and the extra day off will have aided him in his recovery, although he now faces a pretty tough test in the form of Nicolas Almagro in this Quarter Final.
The two players met in the Semi Final in Tokyo last week and it took two tie-breakers to help Del Potro go through on the way to winning the tournament and this could be another close game between them. The courts will aid both players who have big serves and heavy groundstrokes and breaks of serve could certainly be a luxury in this one.
It will be interesting to see how Almagro comes out after winning a tight Third Round match against Tomas Berdych- it was a fairly long match and with less than a day of rest, it can be tough for players to pick up their play. Neither player is likely to play with a full tank, but Almagro certainly has been playing well enough to keep this very competitive.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Gael Monfils: It was a strong display from Gael Monfils to see off Roger Federer in the Third Round, but the level certainly rises another level as he takes on Novak Djokovic in this third Quarter Final.
There was a slight injury concern for Monfils in the win over Federer, but I wouldn't read too much into that if he does take the court despite the number of injury problems he has had over the last eighteen months and this is likely to be a fascinating match.
I don't think Monfils will be able to rely on the serve to bail him out in the same manner it did yesterday as Djokovic is a far better returner than Federer is and I can see the World Number 2 forcing the Frenchman to win the points and not give up too many cheap points.
After such a big win for Monfils yesterday, it wouldn't surprise me if he struggled to match that intensity in this one and I like Djokovic to win this 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 6.04 Units (26 Units Staked, + 23.23% Yield)
Thursday, 10 October 2013
NFL Week 6 Picks 2013 (October 10-14)
It was a decent, if not spectacular, week for the picks through Week 5 and that has kept the season in a very strong position. Yet again, I didn't think this was going to be a great week with the way some of the picks developed during the course of Sunday, especially when looking through my shortlist and realising I had left a lot out there.
Even with that in mind, any time you can pick up a positive week is a good thing, especially in an unpredictable and erratic sport like the NFL and I will take that momentum any time.
Even with that in mind, any time you can pick up a positive week is a good thing, especially in an unpredictable and erratic sport like the NFL and I will take that momentum any time.
Week 5 Thoughts
Minnesota Vikings sign Josh Freeman: This was a very interesting move by the Minnesota Vikings and I didn't have them at the top of my list when it came to potential landing points for Josh Freeman.
Christian Ponder and Matt Cassel are already on the depth chart at Minnesota and it was the latter of those players that helped the team to their first win of the season.
The real talking point is how this is going to affect Ponder going forward- the move suggests Leslie Frazier is not keen on hitching his potential future as Head Coach of the Vikings on Ponder and the leash has definitely shortened for the former First Round pick.
It has been stated that Ponder is still the starter at Quarter Back when he is healthy and he will keep the job IF he plays well... However, I don't think he has too much room to make mistakes with a couple of former starters behind him and waiting for their opportunity and I remain unconvinced that Ponder will keep the starting job.
But will Josh Freeman be the man to take over? He had his issues in Tampa Bay as the falling out with Greg Schiano displayed, but Freeman has the tools to be a decent Quarter Back and that is all the Minnesota Vikings are looking for at this moment with Adrian Peterson at Running Back. There are rumours of Freeman fighting a few personal demons too, but this could be a very important move for him and the change of scenario may have been all that he needed to get back to the form he displayed a couple of years ago.
5-0 is no guarantee of success: Moving to 5-0 will certainly give teams a real chance of making the Play Offs, but actually being successful and winning a Super Bowl is a different matter if recent years are anything to go by.
Over the last five seasons, ten teams have started 5-0 and only two of those have missed the Play Offs... However, only two of the ten teams have actually made it through to the Super Bowl and that happened in the same 2009 season.
Interestingly, those two teams were the New Orleans Saints (led by Drew Brees) and the Indianapolis Colts (led by Peyton Manning) so maybe it's the right time to back a Saints-Broncos Super Bowl this year!
Calling Tony Romo a choker is plain wrong after Sunday's loss: Look, I am the first person to say I don't necessarily trust Tony Romo to make the right plays in December- the last few seasons has seen him make some critical mistakes at the end of the season which has cost Dallas a place in the Play Offs, but to put Sunday in that category is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Romo played some stellar football on Sunday and I think Dallas may have been the latest team to be blown out by the Denver Broncos if their Quarter Back wasn't making some outstanding plays.
He matched Peyton Manning point for point, even leading Dallas back from a 15 point deficit in the third quarter, and Romo also had a franchise record in passing yards. The Interception which eventually sealed the game was a mistake, but to call him a choker is just hating on the player because he had been so good throughout the game.
Romo made some amazing plays in the game, but one of my favourites is below.
If you can't get a pass rush, you just can't win: The NFL is very much a passing League these days and that has been seen by the reduction in value of Running Backs, but that also means teams that can't generate a decent pass rush are unlikely to have a lot of success.
The Atlanta Falcons found this out on Monday night as they dropped to 1-4 for the season... In their game with the New York Jets, Geno Smith was given so much time to settle in the pocket and you wouldn't have thought the rookie was the same player that struggled so much in Tennessee and Buffalo earlier in the season.
Even with a lead and under two minutes left to play, the Falcons couldn't do anything to slow down the Jets who comfortably took the ball into Field Goal range and knocked over the three points to win that game. There will be a lot of question marks in Atlanta in what looked like a Super Bowl or bust kind of season, while matters could be made worse if Julio Jones is ruled out for the season as reports are indicating as of Tuesday night.
Have you ever wondered why mascots don't make good referees?
Top Five
1) Denver Broncos (5-0): Denver had to hang on somewhat in their game against Dallas, but they remain unbeaten and the best team in the AFC right now.
2) New Orleans Saints (5-0): The only unbeaten team left in the NFC and they look pretty good on both sides of the ball.
3) Kansas City Chiefs (5-0): I am still to be convinced as to how legit the Kansas City Chiefs are, but they have made a very good start to the season.
4) Seattle Seahawks (4-1): Playing back to back road non-Conference games is a big ask for any team, but they get to go back home this weekend where they are dominant.
5) New England Patriots (4-1): Like with Seattle, playing back to back road games is a big test of any team and the loss of Vince Wilfork is going to be very tough to overcome. However, they impending return of Rob Gronkowski keeps the Patriots just ahead of the Indianapolis Colts for me.
Bottom Five
32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5): It is clearly a rebuilding process taking place in Jacksonville and they head into Week 6 as the biggest underdog in NFL history.
31) New York Giants (0-5): I might have the Giants in the second worst spot in the League at this moment, but staggeringly they are only 2 games out of the Division lead in the NFC East.
30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4): I have improved Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh by one place each thanks to the Giants ineptitude when losing to Philadelphia and unfortunately the 'bye' couldn't pick up the win against the Buccaneers and Steelers.
29) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4): Same as above.
28) Minnesota Vikings (1-3): There is a Quarter Back controversy brewing in Minnesota, but they did win their last game and can move out of the bottom five by knocking off the Carolina Panthers this weekend.
Week 6 Picks
There were a couple of late calls and injuries that would have changed my picks last week, but fortunately they cancelled one another out. I would never have laid the points with Cleveland if I knew Brian Hoyer would be knocked out of the game in only the Browns second possession of the game and Brandon Weeden was going to play the majority of the game.
Cleveland still covered thanks to their Special Teams plays, including a punt return for a Touchdown, but I will also say that I would never have taken Detroit for a unit if I had even the inkling of a doubt that Calvin Johnson would not be playing so those picks cancelled one another out.
No doubt my worst pick from last week was laying the points with the New York Giants, although laying the points with Carolina wasn't that far behind... Picking the 49ers to beat the Houston Texans handily was clearly the best pick of the weekend and wasn't in doubt as soon as Matt Schaub threw a pick six to open the game.
All in all, Week 5 produced another small profit which keeps the season ticking along nicely and I will look for the momentum to continue as another week gets set to get underway.
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears Pick: This is the third week in a row that I will play the Thursday Night Football game and I like the road underdog to keep this close, although I probably need my head testing backing the New York Giants with the way they have played this season.
I just don't believe that the Chicago Bears should be more than a Touchdown favourite on anyone at the moment after losing back to back games and also with a Defense that has struggled to maintain the standard that had been set over the last few years.
Neither team gets a lot of pressure on the opposition Quarter Back and we saw what Geno Smith was capable to do on Monday Night Football when there is no pressure on the QB in this League... Especially with the two Secondary units that have struggled to defend the pass all season.
Chicago are the more likely winners as they have a running game to speak of and that can provide the difference in a game where both Quarter Backs should have some success throwing the ball. Also, the Bears may have struggled to get to the opposition Quarter Back so far, this is the worst Offensive Line they would have seen and the Giants are going to have a tough time slowing down the pass rush on the short week.
Despite that, I do think the Giants are capable of making some big plays as long as Eli Manning can find a way to avoid the mistakes that have plagued him all season. If the Bears rush is even a semblance slow, which is possible in the absence of Henry Melton, Manning is still good enough to hit his Offensive weapons.
The Bears have been a poor home favourite to back in recent seasons, going 7-12 against the spread in that spot over the last three years.
Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This is a difficult game to predict as turnovers could be vital, but I do trust Aaron Rodgers more than Joe Flacco when it comes to looking after the ball.
I also believe the game potentially means more to Green Bay than it does for Baltimore as the Ravens have played a couple of tough Conference games and are next facing the reeling Pittsburgh Steelers on the road.
Those Conference games are far more important to the long-term aim that Baltimore have for the season, although they won't be impressed that they are being dogged at home.
Clay Matthews is a big loss for the Green Bay Packers Defense which has struggled in the early part of the season, but I don't know if I trust Baltimore's Offense to take full advantage of that. Joe Flacco has struggled for consistency, while the Receivers have dropped a lot of passes and that is not going to cut it against a team like the Packers.
There are a couple of trends that suggest the Packers are the right side in this one and I will back them to cover the spread.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Divisional games are always going to be tough, hard fought battles an I doubt this game is any different.
Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs are heavily favoured to win the game after their start to the season, but I like the Oakland Raiders to find a way to cover.
I have been impressed with Terrell Pryor at Quarter Back- much like Tim Tebow, he hasn't always looked like a serviceable Quarter Back at the NFL level but I do like his intangibles. He is a better mover than Tebow and also a better passer, but he shares the ability to lead his team and give them the confidence to win games and that can't be under-estimated.
Pryor will have to avoid mistakes when throwing the ball against this Defense, but Oakland should be able to run the ball effectively, while Alex Smith won't lead too many blowouts.
There are a couple of heavy trends that also favour Oakland in this one and I like them with the points- I love the fact that the Chiefs are only 4-14 against the spread as a home favourite in recent seasons, going 0-8 in Divisional games as the favourite at home.
Oakland are 17-4 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games.
St Louis Rams @ Houston Texans Pick: There has been a lot of negative talk about Matt Schaub over the last couple of weeks and he couldn't have wished for a worse start than throwing a pick-six almost immediately against San Francisco last week on Sunday Night Football.
The good news for Schaub is he is not playing a Defense as good as the ones he has seen the last four weeks and he will be aided massively by the running game which should gash the Rams for much of the afternoon.
That will open up the plays in which Schaub is most comfortable, namely the bootleg and play-action, and St Louis haven't defended the pass well enough to think they will be able to slow down Schaub through the air either.
Houston's Defense should also be too tough for Sam Bradford and this Offense to really get a lot out of and as long as Schaub avoids the mistakes that have plagued him, the Texans should win this one and cover the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: On the face of things, I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could certainly pose a lot of problems for the Philadelphia Eagles who sandwich this game with two Divisional battles.
However, the rookie at Quarter Back is one issue Tampa Bay have to overcome and the pressure on their Head Coach has been increasing in each passing week. I am not sure that all the players respect Greg Schiano after the way he treated Josh Freeman and that can lead to a vicious cycle of poor results in the NFL.
The MRSA infection that reoccurred over the last week is another concern and I am not sure how focused the Buccaneers will be on this game, even off a bye, with a game at Atlanta also next up on deck. I expect Mike Glennon to make some plays from the Quarter Back position, but it will be tough for the rookie to avoid some mistakes and that should give Philadelphia the edge.
Nick Foles played well last week and even though this is the Eagles third straight road games ahead of battles with Dallas and the New York Giants, I do think they will find a way to make enough plays to win the game.
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Adrian Peterson suffered tragic news during the last couple of days, but is focusing on getting back on the field for the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.
After hearing his son had passed away following an alleged assault, Peterson has still been practicing and I am expecting the whole Vikings team to rally around their best player and put in a strong performance in this one.
The Vikings haven't been good coming off byes in recent seasons, while the Defense hasn't played well this season to suggest they will be able to slow down Cam Newton and the Panthers, but I expect the team to rally together after the terrible events of the last three days. Matt Cassel is less likely to make the mistakes that Christian Ponder was guilty of earlier this season, but he will be under pressure unless Peterson and Toby Gerhart can find a way of running the ball with some effectiveness.
Carolina's Secondary have struggled this season and if the Vikings are running the ball well, Cassel should be able to use play-action to take advantage of that.
I don't like backing teams in tragic circumstances, but they do seem to rally together at moments like these and I expect Adrian Peterson's 'brothers' will ensure a win to make his world seem just a little better in that moment.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I am going to open this segment by simply saying that Buffalo have been a strong home underdog in the early part of the season and I am a little unsure as to what Thad Lewis will bring to the team at the Quarter Back position in this one.
However, Lewis going up against one of the tougher Defenses in the NFL and one that just shut down Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. The Quarter Back won't be helped by the fact that Steve Johnson is a little gimpy at the moment, while the Bengals will feel confident they can limit the damage done by Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller on the ground.
With the pressure that Cincinnati can get up front, Lewis will have to be mobile to avoid sacks as the Offensive Line has struggled and the Bengals should limit what Buffalo can do.
The key to the game is whether Andy Dalton can make enough plays with his arm as that is an area he has been struggling of late. He can't rely on the Running Backs with Buffalo restricting opponents to 3.8 yards per carry. Buffalo's Secondary have been torched at times, but they get plenty of pressure up front and that has led to Interceptions despite the injuries they have in the Secondary and that could be another key to the game.
Dalton has been guilty of pushing at times and throwing picks and he will have to stay away from that if he is to guide the Bengals to 4-2. Buffalo do have a big Divisional game at Miami next on deck, but they should remain focused for the game although I am not sure if Thad Lewis can make enough plays to guide them to a win this week.
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots Pick: This should be one of the better games of the day as I have had a couple of reservations about both sides, but will have a small interest on the New Orleans Saints securing a big victory on the road that will put them in total command of the NFC South if they haven't got it already.
Both Quarter Backs are amongst the best in the NFL, but the difference maker looks to be Jimmy Graham who is playing out of his mind at the moment. The Tight End is going to be very tough to cover and if Bill Belichick looks to take him away with double coverage, it isn't like the Saints haven't got other weapons to turn to.
New England can try and sustain drives by running the ball and keeping Drew Brees off the field, but the Patriots haven't really got a Running Back they can rely on even if that is an area where the Saints have particularly suffered.
Cincinnati also set up a blueprint in getting to Tom Brady last week and I think Rob Ryan will look to hassle the Quarter Back this week, while Rob Gronkowski remains absent.
I am a little concerned with the Saints on an outdoor field as they are just not as good as they are indoors, but I'll take the points in this one.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Both teams should have success moving the chains and this game could very much come down to which of the teams limits their mistakes or even which Receiver drops a pass on a third down he should have completed.
Dallas and Washington will have faith in their Offenses to score the points necessary to win this game, but I have a couple of concerns for the Cowboys which has me backing Washington to cover.
The Cowboys put in a big effort a week ago against Denver and may have left something on the field that day while Washington will be well rested and ready to go in this big Divisional game.
Dallas have also been a poor favourite to back at home and there are a couple of big trends I like that favour Washington in this one. The Cowboys might be 2-0 against the spread as a home favourite this season, but they are 3-17 in that spot over the last three seasons, while they are 5-17-1 against the spread as a home favourite against teams from the NFC East.
Washington are 14-3 against the spread as a road underdog at Divisional rivals and they have every chance of getting a backdoor cover in this one.
It could be a game that comes down to which team has the ball in their hands last and I can see either winning this by a Field Goal so I will take the points on the road team.
MY PICKS: New York Giants + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 2 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Washington Redskins + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New York Giants @ Chicago Bears Pick: This is the third week in a row that I will play the Thursday Night Football game and I like the road underdog to keep this close, although I probably need my head testing backing the New York Giants with the way they have played this season.
I just don't believe that the Chicago Bears should be more than a Touchdown favourite on anyone at the moment after losing back to back games and also with a Defense that has struggled to maintain the standard that had been set over the last few years.
Neither team gets a lot of pressure on the opposition Quarter Back and we saw what Geno Smith was capable to do on Monday Night Football when there is no pressure on the QB in this League... Especially with the two Secondary units that have struggled to defend the pass all season.
Chicago are the more likely winners as they have a running game to speak of and that can provide the difference in a game where both Quarter Backs should have some success throwing the ball. Also, the Bears may have struggled to get to the opposition Quarter Back so far, this is the worst Offensive Line they would have seen and the Giants are going to have a tough time slowing down the pass rush on the short week.
Despite that, I do think the Giants are capable of making some big plays as long as Eli Manning can find a way to avoid the mistakes that have plagued him all season. If the Bears rush is even a semblance slow, which is possible in the absence of Henry Melton, Manning is still good enough to hit his Offensive weapons.
The Bears have been a poor home favourite to back in recent seasons, going 7-12 against the spread in that spot over the last three years.
Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This is a difficult game to predict as turnovers could be vital, but I do trust Aaron Rodgers more than Joe Flacco when it comes to looking after the ball.
I also believe the game potentially means more to Green Bay than it does for Baltimore as the Ravens have played a couple of tough Conference games and are next facing the reeling Pittsburgh Steelers on the road.
Those Conference games are far more important to the long-term aim that Baltimore have for the season, although they won't be impressed that they are being dogged at home.
Clay Matthews is a big loss for the Green Bay Packers Defense which has struggled in the early part of the season, but I don't know if I trust Baltimore's Offense to take full advantage of that. Joe Flacco has struggled for consistency, while the Receivers have dropped a lot of passes and that is not going to cut it against a team like the Packers.
There are a couple of trends that suggest the Packers are the right side in this one and I will back them to cover the spread.
Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Divisional games are always going to be tough, hard fought battles an I doubt this game is any different.
Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs are heavily favoured to win the game after their start to the season, but I like the Oakland Raiders to find a way to cover.
I have been impressed with Terrell Pryor at Quarter Back- much like Tim Tebow, he hasn't always looked like a serviceable Quarter Back at the NFL level but I do like his intangibles. He is a better mover than Tebow and also a better passer, but he shares the ability to lead his team and give them the confidence to win games and that can't be under-estimated.
Pryor will have to avoid mistakes when throwing the ball against this Defense, but Oakland should be able to run the ball effectively, while Alex Smith won't lead too many blowouts.
There are a couple of heavy trends that also favour Oakland in this one and I like them with the points- I love the fact that the Chiefs are only 4-14 against the spread as a home favourite in recent seasons, going 0-8 in Divisional games as the favourite at home.
Oakland are 17-4 against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games.
St Louis Rams @ Houston Texans Pick: There has been a lot of negative talk about Matt Schaub over the last couple of weeks and he couldn't have wished for a worse start than throwing a pick-six almost immediately against San Francisco last week on Sunday Night Football.
The good news for Schaub is he is not playing a Defense as good as the ones he has seen the last four weeks and he will be aided massively by the running game which should gash the Rams for much of the afternoon.
That will open up the plays in which Schaub is most comfortable, namely the bootleg and play-action, and St Louis haven't defended the pass well enough to think they will be able to slow down Schaub through the air either.
Houston's Defense should also be too tough for Sam Bradford and this Offense to really get a lot out of and as long as Schaub avoids the mistakes that have plagued him, the Texans should win this one and cover the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: On the face of things, I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could certainly pose a lot of problems for the Philadelphia Eagles who sandwich this game with two Divisional battles.
However, the rookie at Quarter Back is one issue Tampa Bay have to overcome and the pressure on their Head Coach has been increasing in each passing week. I am not sure that all the players respect Greg Schiano after the way he treated Josh Freeman and that can lead to a vicious cycle of poor results in the NFL.
The MRSA infection that reoccurred over the last week is another concern and I am not sure how focused the Buccaneers will be on this game, even off a bye, with a game at Atlanta also next up on deck. I expect Mike Glennon to make some plays from the Quarter Back position, but it will be tough for the rookie to avoid some mistakes and that should give Philadelphia the edge.
Nick Foles played well last week and even though this is the Eagles third straight road games ahead of battles with Dallas and the New York Giants, I do think they will find a way to make enough plays to win the game.
Carolina Panthers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Adrian Peterson suffered tragic news during the last couple of days, but is focusing on getting back on the field for the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday.
After hearing his son had passed away following an alleged assault, Peterson has still been practicing and I am expecting the whole Vikings team to rally around their best player and put in a strong performance in this one.
The Vikings haven't been good coming off byes in recent seasons, while the Defense hasn't played well this season to suggest they will be able to slow down Cam Newton and the Panthers, but I expect the team to rally together after the terrible events of the last three days. Matt Cassel is less likely to make the mistakes that Christian Ponder was guilty of earlier this season, but he will be under pressure unless Peterson and Toby Gerhart can find a way of running the ball with some effectiveness.
Carolina's Secondary have struggled this season and if the Vikings are running the ball well, Cassel should be able to use play-action to take advantage of that.
I don't like backing teams in tragic circumstances, but they do seem to rally together at moments like these and I expect Adrian Peterson's 'brothers' will ensure a win to make his world seem just a little better in that moment.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills Pick: I am going to open this segment by simply saying that Buffalo have been a strong home underdog in the early part of the season and I am a little unsure as to what Thad Lewis will bring to the team at the Quarter Back position in this one.
However, Lewis going up against one of the tougher Defenses in the NFL and one that just shut down Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. The Quarter Back won't be helped by the fact that Steve Johnson is a little gimpy at the moment, while the Bengals will feel confident they can limit the damage done by Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller on the ground.
With the pressure that Cincinnati can get up front, Lewis will have to be mobile to avoid sacks as the Offensive Line has struggled and the Bengals should limit what Buffalo can do.
The key to the game is whether Andy Dalton can make enough plays with his arm as that is an area he has been struggling of late. He can't rely on the Running Backs with Buffalo restricting opponents to 3.8 yards per carry. Buffalo's Secondary have been torched at times, but they get plenty of pressure up front and that has led to Interceptions despite the injuries they have in the Secondary and that could be another key to the game.
Dalton has been guilty of pushing at times and throwing picks and he will have to stay away from that if he is to guide the Bengals to 4-2. Buffalo do have a big Divisional game at Miami next on deck, but they should remain focused for the game although I am not sure if Thad Lewis can make enough plays to guide them to a win this week.
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots Pick: This should be one of the better games of the day as I have had a couple of reservations about both sides, but will have a small interest on the New Orleans Saints securing a big victory on the road that will put them in total command of the NFC South if they haven't got it already.
Both Quarter Backs are amongst the best in the NFL, but the difference maker looks to be Jimmy Graham who is playing out of his mind at the moment. The Tight End is going to be very tough to cover and if Bill Belichick looks to take him away with double coverage, it isn't like the Saints haven't got other weapons to turn to.
New England can try and sustain drives by running the ball and keeping Drew Brees off the field, but the Patriots haven't really got a Running Back they can rely on even if that is an area where the Saints have particularly suffered.
Cincinnati also set up a blueprint in getting to Tom Brady last week and I think Rob Ryan will look to hassle the Quarter Back this week, while Rob Gronkowski remains absent.
I am a little concerned with the Saints on an outdoor field as they are just not as good as they are indoors, but I'll take the points in this one.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Both teams should have success moving the chains and this game could very much come down to which of the teams limits their mistakes or even which Receiver drops a pass on a third down he should have completed.
Dallas and Washington will have faith in their Offenses to score the points necessary to win this game, but I have a couple of concerns for the Cowboys which has me backing Washington to cover.
The Cowboys put in a big effort a week ago against Denver and may have left something on the field that day while Washington will be well rested and ready to go in this big Divisional game.
Dallas have also been a poor favourite to back at home and there are a couple of big trends I like that favour Washington in this one. The Cowboys might be 2-0 against the spread as a home favourite this season, but they are 3-17 in that spot over the last three seasons, while they are 5-17-1 against the spread as a home favourite against teams from the NFC East.
Washington are 14-3 against the spread as a road underdog at Divisional rivals and they have every chance of getting a backdoor cover in this one.
It could be a game that comes down to which team has the ball in their hands last and I can see either winning this by a Field Goal so I will take the points on the road team.
MY PICKS: New York Giants + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 8 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 2 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Washington Redskins + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 25-16-1, + 11.48 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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