European Tour 8- Baltic Sea Darts Open Day 1 Picks 2026 (Friday 29th May)

The long Premier League Darts season which covers the majority of the opening five months of the season has come to a conclusion with Luke Littler regaining the title he lost last year.

Once again it was a Final featuring Littler and Luke Humphries and that has led to new calls for the Premier League format to be changed.

The criticism is that we are seeing the top players face one another far too often in the current format and that is something that will lose the uniqueness of those battles- we all want to see the best face off, but they become special battles when they are not occurring every other week and that is something the PDC should be noting.

The Premier League is over, but the next several weeks are pretty busy on the PDC Tour.

Another European Tour event begins on Friday with the First Round played over two Sessions and this tournament will be competed on Sunday.

Before the next big Ranking event- the World Matchplay in July- there are a number of events taking place that will feature some big names.

The World Cup of Darts is played on the opening weekend of the 2026 Football World Cup, but there are also three European Tour events, two Masters tournaments, and six Players Championship events scheduled to be played.

The cutoff point for entry into the World Matchplay tournament is early July and that means there are plenty of players competing at events to build up their Ranking Points so they can compete.

And that means we are in for another important weekend for those competing, especially as the Baltic Sea Darts Open is missing big names that were involved in Premier League action on Thursday.

Ross Smith took advantage of that last weekend with his first European Tour title and there will be plenty of players involved this weekend who will certainly believe they can pick up the trophy when all is said and done.

Ryan Joyce & Krzysztof Ratajski double: For the second week in a row, Ryan Joyce and Christian Kist meet in a European Tour event, although this time it is a First Round match.

Last week Kist was a late entry into the International Darts Open as he took the place of a Seeded player withdrawing, but he was well beaten by Ryan Joyce.

Relentless is expected to have enough to get the better of Christian Kist again, especially if he can build on last weekend when reaching the Quarter Final.

In the Afternoon Session, Joyce can be doubled up with Krzysztof Ratajski who has plenty of European Tour experience and can edge out Daniel Klose.

The World Number 143 has been playing pretty well, but Ratajski should have a couple of gears to go through and he should be able to reach the Second Round after a bit of a battle.

Niels Zonneveld to win & most 180s v Richard Veenstra: An all-Dutch First Round match should be a decent watch, but the edge has to be with Niels Zonneveld, even if he has not been at his best over the last few weeks.

He is still playing well enough to beat Richard Veenstra, who has lost four matches in a row, and Niels Zonneveld should have the edge in the maximum hitting.

Kevin Doets to win & most 180s v Lukas Wenig: The recent form produced by Lukas Wenig is going to have to be improved significantly if he is going to win this First Round match at the latest European Tour event.

He is a capable player when putting his best foot forward, but the consistency has been lacking and that leaves Wenig vulnerable when coming up against Kevin Doets.

This may be one of the last few occasions when Kevin Doets is asked to play on the opening day of an European Tour event and he is definitely going to be targeting a place at the World Matchplay.

Kevin Doets will be disappointed to have been beaten in the Third Round last week at the International Darts Open, but he has the scoring power to make sure he begins another positive run at the Baltic Sea Darts Open.

Dirk van Duijvenbode to win & most 180s v Paul Krohne: Doubling is always going to be the key to winning any Darts match and it was the finishing that let Dirk van Duijvenbode down last week in his defeat to Rob Cross.

His scoring remains an important part of his game and the Dutchman should have enough of that to create more chances to win Legs and then Matches.

Paul Krohne has flashed his ability on European Tour events in 2026, but this is another level compared with his usual competition.

That has meant losing three in a row and Dirk van Duijvenbode can complete the Match Double within this First Round contest. 

MY PICKS: Ryan Joyce & Krzysztof Ratajski Double @ 2.09 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Niels Zonneveld to Win & Most 180s @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kevin Doets to Win & Most 180s @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Dirk van Duijvenbode to Win & Most 180s @ 2.20 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 74-102, - 14.85 Units (173 Units Staked, - 8.58% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2026 (Friday 29th May)

It felt unlikely that a higher Seed than Elena Rybakina would drop out of the French Open before the end of the first week, but the incredibly hot conditions ended up being a huge factor in Jannik Sinner's demise at the tournament.

At 6-3, 6-2, 5-1, the top Seed looked to be making routine progress into the Third Round.

Suddenly the heat got on top of him as Jannik Sinner mentioned feeling dizzy and sick and he then lost 18 of the next 20 games to be dumped out of a tournament in which he was a clear favourite after Carlos Alcaraz was unable to travel to Paris.

At the start of the tournament, it felt like the Women's Tournament was wide open, but the Men's now feels the exact same way.

Alexander Zverev will be favourite, but there is going to be a huge amount of pressure on all those competing knowing the opportunity that has come up and the bottom half of the draw looks much tougher to negotiate than the top.

The remaining ten days at this event are going to be fascinating.

It was not a very good day at all for the Tennis Picks- a couple were simply poor selections, while one retirement and a player losing their way in the second set after taking the opener contributed to a poor day in the office.

Overall the French Open remains in a positive position, but Friday is about bouncing back as the Third Round gets underway.

Rafael Jodar - 5.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The inspiration of Rafael Nadal means the top Spanish players are no longer considered clay court specialists, but capable of performing on all surfaces on the Tour.

Carlos Alcaraz has taken up the baton from Nadal, but he is missing at the French Open in 2026 and the Spanish media will be very much focusing on Rafael Jodar, the teenager who has enjoyed a really strong clay court season in the build up to Roland Garros.

It has been such a strong build up that Rafael Jodar has moved from World Number 89 in early April to one of the Seeding positions at the French Open. He is very confident on the hard courts too, but the clay is where he has made his move on the Tour and Rafael Jodar has to believe that the minimum expectation at this Grand Slam is reaching the Quarter Final.

Some will think that is overconfidence from someone who is playing in just his second Grand Slam tournament, but Rafael Jodar won a title in Marrakech before reaching the Semi Final in Barcelona and the Quarter Final at back to back ATP 1000 events in Madrid and Rome.

Suffice to say, he is feeling pretty good about his tennis and Rafael Jodar has dropped a single set through the first two Rounds.

There is an argument to be made that Rafael Jodar made life a little more difficult in the Second Round than he perhaps should have, but winning breeds confidence and no one should be surprised that he has been set as a big favourite in this Third Round match.

All credit has to be given to Alex Michelsen for finding his way through to the Third Round and the American could soon return to being a Seed at Grand Slam events having reached World Number 30 back in July last year. These days he is the World Number 42, which makes Michelsen one of those awkward early Round opponents that Seeds could run into, but he is at his most vulnerable on the clay courts.

The two wins at the French Open have been against the World Number 88 in the First Round and then the World Number 148 in the Second Round and the early loss for Taylor Fritz has opened things up for Alex Michelsen. Prior to the French Open, Alex Michelsen had compiled a 4-6 record on the clay courts and a player who is reliant on his serve finds it hard to deal with a 72% hold rate on the red dirt.

He wants to be aggressive, but that is not the right way to approach clay court tennis and it has put Alex Michelsen under pressure to deliver on the return, which is still a developing part of his game.

This is expected to play out in this Third Round match in Paris on Friday and Rafael Jodar should have a bit too much know-how on this surface for Alex Michelsen.

Rafael Jodar is 16-1 when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings on the clay courts this season- in the fifteen matches played before the French Open, Rafael Jodar has held 86% of service games in that situation and broken in 37% of return games and that is a level that should break down Alex Michelsen in this best of five set format and give the Spaniard every opportunity of covering a wide spread.

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 games v Jakub Mensik: These two players had extremely different experiences in the French Open Second Round and it is Alex De Minaur who HAS to be in better shape going into the Third Round.

The Australian received a Walkover into the Third Round, while opponent Jakub Mensik had to battle for twenty minutes shy of five hours to eventually prevail in five sets... That alone would not be an issue this early into a Grand Slam tournament, but Jakub Mensik was playing in incredibly hot conditions and had to be taken off in a wheelchair at the conclusion of the match.

Earlier in the week, Casper Ruud came through a five setter and won his next match having described himself as a 'zombie' on the court in what have been crazy conditions in Paris. At 20 years old, Jakub Mensik is likely to have pretty good recovery and he has admitted that he felt much better having spent some time off of a court that had almost no shade from the blistering heat of Wednesday.

On Friday it is expected to still be very humid in Paris, but overcast conditions may help- the sun beating down on anybody makes a big difference and so Jakub Mensik is going to feel he is ready to compete.

A bigger challenge is the opponent who reached the Semi Final in Hamburg and Alex De Minaur made pretty comfortable work of Toby Samuel in his sole match at the French Open. The Australian is unsurprisingly happier on the faster surfaces of the Tour, but over the last couple of years, Alex De Minaur has shown he can battle on the clay and his speed and effort around the courts will make it tough for any opponent to break him down.

Prior to the French Open, Jakub Mensik was only holding a 3-3 record on the clay in the lead up to the second Grand Slam of the season. The World Number 27 does bring a dangerous serve into play, but you do have to wonder if there is not going to be some impact on his ability to show patience that may be needed to break down Alex De Minaur.

Jakub Mensik is much happier on the hard courts, but he has lost all five previous matches against Alex De Minaur and all of that surface, which should aid his game more than the clay courts.

They have played nine completed sets against one another and Alex De Minaur has won eight of those, including a straight sets win at the United Cup leading up to the Australian Open earlier this season.

A statistic that is almost certainly going to end in this Third Round match is the fact that Alex De Minaur has NEVER been broken by Jakub Mensik- on a clay court, that is close to impossible to happen again.

However, it does tell you that the match up is pretty good in favour of the higher Ranked player and Alex De Minaur has also broken in 26% of return games played and on faster surfaces. Any time the World Number 7 sees the second serve, Alex De Minaur is going to feel he can win the rallies and the extra strength he should have in this Third Round match is likely going to be a critical factor as he looks to move past Jakub Mensik in a good looking contest.

MY PICKS: Rafael Jodar - 5.5 Games @ 1.60 William Hill (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 11-7, + 3.80 Units (34 Units Staked, + 11.18% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2025 (Thursday 29th May)

The only positive from Day 4 is that at least some of the selections were able to return with winners, but this has not been a fun tournament for the selections so far.

Some of the Picks may not have looked like they have stood a chance from the outset, but the frustration has been getting on the wrong end of some of the fine margins.

For instance, Miomir Kecmanovic is going to be wondering just as much as we are as to how he was beaten by Quentin Halys having dominated the Break Point count- he had ten across three games in the third set and was still not able to win it, and it really is a match that was effectively read correctly, but without the luck that is needed.

Jelena Ostapenko missed the cover by one game having taken too long to really take control of her match, while Diana Shnaider then allowed a 4-0 lead to slip in the opening set.

And just in case it feels like only the bounce of the ball that is seemingly going against the selections in the French capital, Casper Ruud is injured and loses twelve of thirteen games played in the final two sets. He had no reason to continue to play when the injury had completely limited his movement, and there is no way you back someone who is injured, but that is the way the cookie crumbles and sums up the poor luck that has been attached to the Picks.

It does make Thursday important and anything less than a winning return may mean a choice has to be made to shut down the Picks for the rest of the event- I would still offer up some thoughts on the matches to be played, but without any units to be attached to them, but it is something to assess after the Thursday schedule is completed.

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Corentin Moutet: It has not been a year to remember so far for Novak Djokovic and the former World Number 1 had been struggling on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open. He skipped Rome after consecutive defeats, but Novak Djokovic made a rare decision to play in Geneva in the week before the start of the French Open to try and rebuild some confidence.

The plan worked with Djokovic winning the title before heading to Paris and he did not need to be at his best to win in the First Round at Roland Garros.

Novak Djokovic may go down as the best player of all time, but he has not always been given love from the tennis watching crowd and certainly not like Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal. That could be the case again in the Second Round with a match against a home player, although Djokovic admitted feeling good being back in Paris having last stepped out here with the Gold Medal win at the Olympic Games.

He is going to be tested by Corentin Moutet who has a style that can take opponents out of their rhythm when performing at his best.

The World Number 73 had not shown a lot of form before reaching the Fourth Round in Rome, but that will have given Corentin Moutet a lift and he was also a relaxed First Round winner here. Last year, the Frenchman had his best run in his home Grand Slam when reaching the Fourth Round and he even took the first set from Jannik Sinner, and so deserves respect, but Novak Djokovic has seen it all in his time on the Tour and that should mean he is well versed in what to expect from Corentin Moutet.

Corentin Moutet will know that his serve is vulnerable, but he is a decent return player and that will give him some hope.

However, it is tough to expect him to stay with Novak Djokovic for long enough to really build towards a potential upset.

They have met twice before on the pro Tour and it is Novak Djokovic who has won both matches, including on an indoor hard court at the Paris Masters. Their most recent meeting came twelve months ago on clay at the Rome Masters and Novak Djokovic's return was devastatingly effective on the day and there is every reason to believe he can come through a competitive first set before really exerting his qualities over this Second Round match.

Alexander Zverev - 8.5 games v Jesper de Jong: If you consider the kind of successes that Alexander Zverev has had at Roland Garros and the fact he was 2-1 up in the Final of the French Open in 2024, you have to say he gets to fly relatively under the radar.

He is also the World Number 3, but it is Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz who lead the expert picks when it comes to selecting a potential Champion and this should be something that suits Alexander Zverev.

Some criticism of his performances over the last month have irked him, but he did win a clay court title in Munich and reached the Quarter Final in Rome. It was something of a surprise to see Alexander Zverev enter the Hamburg tournament last week, but the appearance fee may have persuaded him and the relatively early exit is not something that will bother him too much.

Alexander Zverev moved through the First Round without dropping a set, and he could be capable of covering what is an exceptionally wide line in the Second Round.

He is going up against Jesper de Jong, the World Number 88 who is set to end the French Open at a new career high World Ranking if he can put another win on the board. That is the challenge for the Dutch player who came through the First Round having dropped the first two sets and especially as he now has to face an opponent much stronger than the opener.

During this clay court season, the top players have gotten the better of Jesper de Jong, which is going to be a potential factor. Both Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner were very comfortable winners over him in Barcelona and Rome respectively, and in those defeats, de Jong simply struggled to protect his serve.

Alexander Zverev should know he can put the pressure on having crushed Jesper de Jong in Hamburg last year for the loss of just four games and you have to believe the World Number 3 is aware that he does not want to use too much energy in this first week. That should drive some focus, but it has been a tough tournament for some of the big names and it is up to Zverev to keep his intensity high and break down a player who is still quite vulnerable at the very top level.

Andrey Rublev - 8.5 games v Adam Walton: There has not been a lot wrong with the numbers produced over the last twelve months, but Andrey Rublev has been trying to find the mentality to overcome those moments when things have gone against him. Instead of fighting through and turning things back in his favour, Andrey Rublev has suffered too many defeats in that time and it is a clear reason he has dropped out of the top 10 in the World Rankings.

He only reached the Third Round at the French Open in 2024 and so there is an opportunity in front of the World Number 15 to reverse the declining trend.

No one will doubt the abilities of Andrey Rublev, who reached the Hamburg Final last weekend, but the results have been a little disappointing through this clay court season.

Dropping a set in the First Round is not a major problem for Andrey Rublev, especially as he was able to roll through the next two sets for a comfortable 3-1 success and the Russian is a very strong favourite to win this match against an opponent who has very little clay court experience.

Adam Walton is playing just his seventh clay court match in his career and he was 1-4 going into the French Open.

The draw was a kind one, but Adam Walton could not take anything for granted and still needed all five sets to move through to this Second Round match and a huge challenge that is coming up. His serve has been a vulnerable part of his tennis on the clay courts and Walton will find it tough to deal with the Andrey Rublev serve if the latter is anywhere near the kind of level he can produce.

In all honesty, Andrey Rublev has not been serving that well on the clay courts this season and certainly not to the standard of the last two years. However, he has still been getting enough from that shot to believe he will be the stronger on the day and the returning pressure could end up seeing the higher Ranked player move through the gears into another Third Round in Paris.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alexander Zverev - 8.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Andrey Rublev - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arthur Fils - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jack Draper - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

French Open Update: 3-11, - 8.48 Units (14 Units Staked, - 60.57% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 29th May)

The update from the Tuesday matches will be placed in this thread, but the tournament moves onto the Second Round and these are the selections from Day 4 at Roland Garros.

Andrey Rublev - 6.5 games v Pedro Martinez: The First Round win over Taro Daniel may have been a little tougher than expected, but Andrey Rublev was still a relatively comfortable four set winner. Picking up a Masters title in Madrid will certainly have Rublev believing he can finally end his wait for a place in the Semi Final or better at a Grand Slam.

However, results outside of that tournament have been pretty poor on the clay courts and there is going to need to be a significant improvement if the World Number 6 is going to crack through the Quarter Final stage.

He cannot take any opponent for granted and will have to respect Pedro Martinez and his capabilities on the clay courts. The Spaniard is still operating within the top 50 of the World Rankings and there is little doubt that Martinez has produced his best form on the clay courts, a surface that would have been very familiar to him when growing his way onto the Tour.

An almost four hour, five set win is not ideal preparation for Pedro Martinez, but the comfort of playing on this surface will help. He has also won a title on the clay courts this season, while reaching the Final in two other events, albeit at a lower level than the one where Andrey Rublev was successful.

Pedro Martinez has beaten Casper Ruud on the clay this season, but he has also suffered some one-sided defeats to top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface. The numbers suggest he may struggle to get into the return games and that should aid Andrey Rublev in being able to eventually wear down and pull away from this Second Round obstacle.

When these two met at the US Open in 2021, the first two sets were incredibly competitive before Rublev was able to turn the screw. This one should be a bit closer, but the Russian player can still find a way to cover this handicap mark with a set being won by a wide margin.

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 games v Fabian Marozsan: It would be a real surprise if either of these players was involved in the business end of the French Open, but solid First Round wins will have given both Grigor Dimitrov and Fabian Marozsan some confidence to take into this match.

Straight sets wins in the opening Round of a Grand Slam will provide a real boost to any player, especially on the Men's side of the tournament where the best of five set format increases the importance of winning without being overly taxed.

The wins for Fabian Marozsan and Grigor Dimitrov are perhaps a little surprising in how comfortable they were considering the lack of consistency shown on the surface prior to Roland Garros. At least Dimitrov can point to having a winning record, even when facing relatively early defeats, but Fabian Marozsan had only produced a 2-4 record on the clay before his First Round win in Paris.

The wins might not have been forthcoming this season, but Fabian Marozsan has shown he is a decent enough clay court player in previous years. Last year he had a solid run at the Rome Masters, but the majority of the stronger results produced by the Hungarian have been at Challenger level and that has perhaps been underlined by the tough time he has had on the the red dirt over the last two months.

Grigor Dimitrov has long had decent enough numbers on the clay courts without having the results to back those up- the serve has been in decent nick on the surface, but Dimitrov has been held back by inconsistent returning and so the performance in the First Round will make him feel a lot better.

This is the first time these two players will be facing one another on the Tour, but Grigor Dimitrov may just use all of his previous experiences to edge past this opponent and do enough to cover this spread.

Liudmila Samsonova - 2.5 games v Amanda Anisimova: There is still time on her side in order to fulfil the kind of potential most believe Amanda Anisimova has had, but it has been a tough couple of years for the 22 year old.

She returned to the Tour earlier this year and is currently the World Number 231, but this is a talented player who looked capable of winning a Grand Slam before personal issues perhaps made it tough to focus on her tennis.

The clay court season has not been the best for Amanda Anisimova who has a 2-3 record on the surface after edging past Rebecca Sramkova in the First Round. She had won sets, but Amanda Anisimova had lost three matches in a row on the surface prior to the win here in Paris and will know that this is a much tougher match on paper.

It has not been a clay court season for Liudmila Samsonova to write home about, but three wins in Strasbourg last week will have restored some confidence. We saw evidence of that in her crushing First Round win over Magda Linette and Samsonova may believe her first serve can give her the edge when it comes to trying to beat Amanda Anisimova on Wednesday.

The American has to be respected having reached the Semi Final at the French Open in 2019 and taking the first set against Ashleigh Barty before going down in three sets. However, Amanda Anisimova looks to be some way below that level in her current rebuilding mode and ultimately that should show up in this Second Round match.

Two wins over Liudmila Samsonova will give Anisimova confidence, especially as one was at the Australian Open earlier this year. She was much less match hardened for that match, but the change in surface may just aid Samsonova who can come through in two competitive sets.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Liudmila Samsonova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 5-1, + 5.80 Units (12 Units Staked, + 48.33% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2023 (May 29th)

Sunday is going to be a long day so I am going to begin this thread with some of the selections from the early matches that are set to be played on Day 2 at the French Open.

Any additional selections will be added on Monday morning, while the Day 3 Picks post should be up at the end of play on Monday evening.

MY PICKS: Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2023- Games 5-7 (May 25-29)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Pick- Games 5-7

It has been a strange NBA Conference Finals and the television networks must be glad we have at least one of those Series going into Game 5, especially with the NBA Finals not scheduled to start until June 1st.

The Denver Nuggets making the NBA Finals is perhaps not what the higher ups in television would have hoped for, but the ratings are potentially going to take a big hit if we have to wait so long for the NBA Finals to start and if the Miami Heat, not the Boston Celtics are taking part.

And in reality it is going to take a history making effort from the Boston Celtics to earn back to back NBA Finals appearances from 3-0 down in the Eastern Conference Finals, although they have at least managed to force a Game 5 back at home.

It has also been a frustrating time for my NBA Picks through the Conference Finals- I am 2-5-1 so far in the Conference Finals, but the irritation is that four of the selections have produced a 0-3-1 return despite losing by a combined FOUR points.

That includes both Game 4 selections finishing under the total by a combined 1.5 points, which is remarkable really.

Oh well, it has been a positive PlayOffs and I am looking to get back on the right road through the remainder of the Eastern Conference Finals, although it is going to be a losing round for the selections. Fortunately the opening two Rounds have produced strong results and that will at least mean going into the NBA Finals looking to build on numbers rather than rallying.

Thursday 25th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The NBA PlayOffs have had a day off with the Western Conference Finals swept by the Denver Nuggets, but there is going to be a Game 5 in the Eastern Conference Finals after the Boston Celtics put in a big effort to bring the Series back home after falling into a 3-0 hole.

There is still a tall mountain for the Celtics to climb knowing that not one team in the history of the NBA have rallied from 3-0 down in a best of seven Series to progress. However, the team have kept talking about 'one game at a time' and Marcus Smart did warn the Miami Heat to not allow Boston to 'get one' ahead of the Game 4 played on the road on Tuesday.

The Celtics have got one now and there were positive signs from the Game 4 win, although they have dug themselves into a deep hole and any kind of day where the shooting is slightly down will likely mean elimination. That is a pressure that the players are not going to be that used to dealing with, although avoiding a sweep is a big first step on the road to recovery.

I have to believe the Miami Heat are disappointed that they did not close the Series out at the first time of asking, but they will also be pretty comfortable with the way the Eastern Conference Finals have shaped up. They have already won twice on the road against the Boston Celtics so I am not expecting Miami to be feeling that much pressure here, but Jimmy Butler and his team will not want to enter a Game 6 or a Game 7 so there is something for them to have to balance out mentally and physically.

Game 4 was clearly the worst shooting day that the Miami Heat have had in the Conference Finals, but they will believe that is an exception rather than a rule for the remainder of this Series.

The Heat only managed to hit eight shots from the distance at 25% on Tuesday, but this team have shown they can be more productive than that. Gabe Vincent did roll his ankle and that will be a concern for Miami considering the kind of impact he has had already, and Miami will need him and Caleb Martin to keep picking up the slack for the team.

Boston might have actually worked out a way to slow down Jimmy Butler, and that will be important to them, although the star Miami player will know he missed some open looks in Game 4 and those are unlikely to be repeated. However, it has also been clear throughout this Series that the role players are going to be key and that is where the Heat have had a clear advantage up until Game 4 when the likes of Marcus Smart and Al Horford got going.

You can make a case for picking either side on the spread- the Celtics are down a couple of points from Game 2 and the higher Seed and the favourite have been strong plays in recent Game 5s in the Conference Finals.

However, Miami have shown they can compete with the Celtics here and have won twice as a big underdog, while the team that lost Game 4 have been very good at covering the mark set in Game 5.

Instead I am going to go back to the well at least one more time with this one to surpass the total games line set, even if I have been punched in the gut with each of the last two games played in the NBA PlayOffs finishing below the number by just 1.5 points combined.

It includes needing one more point in Game 4 to see the total beaten, but I do think both teams have shown they can score plenty of points and I expect Miami to have a better three point shooting day in this one compared with Tuesday. You know the Celtics will not shy away from hoisting up plenty of three pointers of their own and I do think the Offensive game plans are set and have proven to be successful.

Miami also only had one Offensive rebound in Game 4 and grabbing those can lead to more trips to the Foul Line, which will contribute to this one heading over the line set.

Both games played here in the Eastern Conference Finals have been high-scoring affairs and I will look for this one to go the same way.

Saturday 27th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 6 Pick: There has not been a moment when the Boston Celtics have acted like they have 'nothing to lose' in the Eastern Conference Finals, even when the team fell into a 3-0 hole. The players would have known what kind of reaction they would have gotten from the fans if they were not able to at least avoid the sweep, but the players have also made it clear to the Miami Heat that if they 'got one', the Finals is far from over.

Poor Fourth Quarters proved costly in Game 1 and Game 2, but the blowout in Game 3 really stung and Marcus Smart even stated to the Heat players that there is no need for so much trash-talking considering Boston beat Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals twelve months ago. I think that trash-talking has just fired up some of the Boston players and winning consecutive games has given the Number 2 Seed the momentum.

And it is not just Boston winning games, but they have been blowing right through the Heat in the last two games, which has shifted the pressure onto Miami as they look to avoid becoming the first team in NBA history to lose a best of seven Series once moving into a 3-0 lead.

The pressure is building, although Jimmy Butler gladly told reporters that the team is fine and they will be closing the door in Game 6. He has also 'guaranteed' the Heat will make the NBA Finals, but injuries to Tyler Herro and, more recently, Gabe Vincent are hurting.

Gabe Vincent has been immense as a third option for the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, but hurt himself in Game 4 and missed Game 5 entirely. It is not a coincidence that was also the game with the lowest points total for the Miami Heat as others have not been able to step in and replicate what Vincent brought to the team, while veteran Kyle Lowry came into the starting line up and was terrible.

The status remains questionable for Vincent, but I think the feeling was that he was close to being ready for Game 5 and I do think the Miami Heat will have him back. However, if he is not at 100%, I do think the Heat are going to have to play a lot better Defensively and also hope that the Boston role players slow down.

Earlier in the Eastern Conference Finals, the likes of Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Derrick White struggled and that put too much on the shoulders of Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown. Those three players combined for 76 points through the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals, but all have rediscovered their mojo and have produced 92 points combined in the two wins.

It was Smart and White that led the scoring for the Celtics in Game 5 as they pummelled Miami from the three point range and they have clearly found their rhythm from the distance.

Boston are the superior team and they are going to be very difficult to beat if they are hitting their three pointers at 40% or better as they have in the last two games. This is a team that will hoist up so many of those shots that a rhythm from the range opens things up for Tatum and Brown to take over and I do think the Celtics are in a position to force a Game 7 with a second win on the road in South Florida.

You have to believe that the Heat are going to pick up their level being back at home, but Jimmy Butler is being harassed and not finding too many open looks, while Bam Adebayo has really been struggling since a huge Game 2 effort. Ultimately the Heat role players are not performing as they did and the Celtics can make it three in a row on Saturday evening when Game 6 is scheduled to take place.

I will note that four of the last five teams who had a chance to close out a Conference Finals in Game 6 have managed to do that and two of those have been in upset wins like the one Miami are chasing this time.

However, I also think the Celtics have found the necessary adjustments to get back into the Eastern Conference Finals and they can do enough to win this one and bring the Series back to Boston for an epic Monday night clash.

Monday 29th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 7 Pick: It has been a remarkable Eastern Conference Finals, but Game 6 might have been the best of the games played.

For so long it looked like the Boston Celtics were on course for a big win in Game 6- they led by double digits with just four minutes remaining in the Fourth Quarter- but they were not able to finish off the Miami Heat. Amazingly the Heat found a way to lead with three seconds on the clock and the Number 8 Seed looked on course to join the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals, but an Offensive Rebound tip-in from Derrick White saved the Celtics at the buzzer and forced this Game 7 back at home.

They are just the the third team to have rallied from 3-0 down to earn a Game 7 spot, but the Celtics will be aware that there has yet to be a NBA team who have recovered to win a Series from being in a deep hole. This is going to bring some pressure onto the court, but the Celtics are experienced and they will look back twelve months when they beat the Miami Heat in a Game 7.

This is the first time a team that trailed 3-0 will be hosting Game 7 and I am not surprised that the Boston Celtics are considered strong favourites.

Gabe Vincent was back for the Heat and he was a part of a high percentage three point effort which ultimately allowed Miami to stick with the Boston Celtics.

I do think Game 7 will come down to which of these teams is most productive from the long range, but the Boston Celtics have proved something to themselves by winning a game when they have struggled with their three point shooting. In Game 6 the Celtics only managed seven long range points compared with Miami's fourteen, but in the previous two games Boston had scored seventeen more three pointers than their opponent.

If Boston can get back on track with their three point shooting, I do think they have the edge at home and teams that won Game 6 are on a 3-2 run against the spread in Game 7 of the Conference Finals.

Of course the Celtics are playing with a different kind of pressure, but I am not sure the Heat can replicate the shooting they produced from long range in Game 6 and ultimately that will see Miami make history for the wrong reasons.

MY PICKS: 25/05 Boston Celtics-Miami Heat Over 215.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

27/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

29/05 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 2-8-1, - 6.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 56.18% Yield)

Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)

First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

PlayOffs 2023: 36-17-1, + 15.94 Units (54 Units Staked, + 29.52% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2022 (May 29th)

The Third Round is over and I can't say I am too disappointed when you see how the last two days have gone for the Tennis Picks.

It has been a time of frustration- I have been fed up with the poor luck that has accompanied some of the selections, especially as that has compounded the bad picks made.

Yesterday was more of the same with Andrey Rublev blowing a really strong chance to cover, but it has also put the week in a really poor position. The Fourth Round is where things need to begin to be turned around and you can see my Picks from the Sunday matches scheduled here.

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: You have to accept that this is a very big spread against a player as competent as Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, but Novak Djokovic is capable of finding the breaks of serve that will be needed to move past the line.

It is the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam so the expectation is that the challenges and tests get much tougher for all players and I think there will be a real respect for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman coming from the other side of the net. Over the years we have seen Schwartzman give some of the top names on the clay courts a bit of a run for their money, although he has only held 61% of his service games against top five Ranked opponents in this Grand Slam.

His sole win in the six previous matches against those top players came in an epic five setter against Dominic Thiem in 2020, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has been pretty well beaten by Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal (three times) in Paris. Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is known for having a solid return game, but the numbers dip to 22% of return games ending with a break of serve and I do think he was not having the best tournament before crushing Grigor Dimitrov in an upset in the Third Round.

The earlier performances were not that encouraging and it has not been the best time on the clay over the last couple of months for the Argentine. He is also facing a Novak Djokovic who looked like he was getting back to his best when winning the Rome Masters and who has looked untroubled in Paris with three straight sets wins behind him.

The World Number 1 is a perfectionist though and he will feel he has not returned as well as he would have liked in the last couple of Rounds with 43% of points won against the Alex Molcan serve and 45% against the Aljaz Bedene serve. However, Novak Djokovic may feel both have a bigger serve than the one he will see in the Fourth Round and the Serb has still managed to break all of the opponents faced in the French Open at least four times each.

Novak Djokovic has been serving well in the last two wins too and he will be confident in the match up even if he knows it will be a test.

He has won all six previous matches against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and he has broken in 37% of return games played in the three clay court matches between the two. Their sole meeting in the French Open did go five sets in 2017, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has felt like he has lost a slight spring in the step these days and I think Novak Djokovic will find the breaks he needs in an entertaining Fourth Round match.

It may even go four sets, but barring a complete loss of focus, Novak Djokovic can still do enough to cover this big spread.

Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: A Fourth Round match at a Grand Slam has plenty of headlines to make on its own, but there is an added crease to this one. Rafael Nadal will be going into the match as the favourite, which is no surprise, but his opponent is actually advised by Nadal's Uncle Toni these days.

Any drama added to the mix looks to have been removed by Toni Nadal who has told reporters that he had made it clear when partnering with Felix Auger-Aliassime that he would not be disclosing any secret tips on how to beat Rafael Nadal.

Even if Felix Auger-Aliassime had been given the directions, it is all about the execution in the Fourth Round and I think it is going to take a huge serving day to have any real hope of the upset. So far in the tournament, the Canadian has been able to hold opponents off with the serve and he has only been broken twice in the last two Rounds.

However, all three matches in this tournament have been played against opponents that Felix Auger-Aliassime has been expected to beat and he has perhaps made harder work of those victories than he should have. He has twice failed to win more than 40% of return points in the three Rounds played and that is not a number that will be a worry to Rafael Nadal who has looked pretty sharp behind serve for the most part.

There have been a couple of wobbles, but those have come from positions of complete command and Rafael Nadal has only dropped serve five times this week, even if that is more than we have become used to at the French Open.

The return continues to be very dangerous though and Rafael Nadal has found at least seven breaks of serve in each of his three wins in Paris. The foot injury is a concern against someone who can hit the ball as big as Felix Auger-Aliassime, but I do think Nadal has played well enough to think he is dealing with any lingering issue and the return is something that can put a lot of pressure on any opponent he faces.

Before the French Open, Felix Auger-Aliassime lost three of four matches played against top 20 Ranked opponents on the clay and his serve was proved to be not as effective against those. The two top 10 opponents he faced saw the Canadian hold just 69% of his service games played and I do think the conditions in Paris will be ones that Rafael Nadal is able to enjoy.

Much depends on how big Felix Auger-Aliassime can serve and for how long, but this match may come too soon for him in his career.

In their sole clay court meeting, Rafael Nadal was able to dominate the return and, while improved, I think it is going to be the return that helps him get on top of this one too.

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The Second Round battling win over Albert Ramos-Vinolas was a huge testing moment for Carlos Alcaraz.

Winning on the day was important, but how he handled himself and prepared for the Third Round match with Sebastian Korda was an interesting moment for all of those who have predicted Carlos Alcaraz could win this Grand Slam title. He more than showed he is ready to take home one of the biggest prizes in tennis and that too against a player who had beaten him on the clay in the lead up to the French Open.

Having a day off between matches clearly would have helped, but Carlos Alcaraz was very impressive in the Third Round and he deserves to be a big favourite in the Fourth Round too.

Karen Khachanov has done well to reach the second week at the French Open considering the inconsistent levels he had shown in the tournaments on the way to Paris. The big hitting player has taken a set off of Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas on the clay before falling apart, but that does show that Karen Khachanov has to be respected.

However, it is difficult to imagine he can maintain a level to beat someone who has played as well as Carlos Alcaraz all season and even the tournament numbers have been much stronger than the Karen Khachanov numbers. The latter gave up 21 break points in his win over Cameron Norrie, but it is unlikely that Carlos Alcaraz will be as generous having had his own issues once already in this tournament in securing breaks.

Even in the last Round, it was a comfortable win but Carlos Alcaraz created a lot of break points before securing the breaks, but he is playing an opponent in this one that has held 77% of service games played on the clay courts. That number has dipped to 65% for Karen Khachanov when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2022 and I do think the big hitter will struggle to keep Carlos Alcaraz at bay.

They haven't met before, but I do think the Spaniard will like the kind of pace of ball he will be facing in this one, while a flatter shot from Karen Khachanov compared with Albert Ramos-Vinolas can also play into the hands of Carlos Alcaraz.

Karen Khachanov is a player that deserves respect having had solid runs in previous Grand Slam tournaments and I do think he will feel all the pressure is on his younger opponent. He can take the racquet out of the hand of any opponent he faces, but Carlos Alcaraz is something special and can underline why he is Ranked as highly as he is by getting to grips with Khachanov early, and then moving through the gears like others have done on this surface.

Carlos Alcaraz can be a little vulnerable on serve with the aggression he tends to play with and the first serve still a work in progress, but he does enough to protect it. The return game is where he excels though and has a clear advantage over Karen Khachanov and I expect that to be the case in this Fourth Round match.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Martina Trevisan @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sloane Stephens + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update; 40-43, - 13.58 Units (166 Units Staked, - 8.18% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2022- Game 5-7 (May 25-29)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks- Games 5-7

The NBA PlayOffs have not really had the in-game drama as much as the television executives would have hoped, but there is no doubting that some of the Series have been very competitive.

We have already had a couple of Series needing a Game 7 to determine a winner, while the Eastern Conference Finals look well on the way to another final game decider between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.

By the time you read this, the Golden State Warriors may have earned their spot in the NBA Finals, but the chances are that they will not need too many chances to complete the win over the Dallas Mavericks having moved to a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals.

It has been a good Round for the NBA Picks with a 6-1 record through the first seven days of the Conference Finals with one more selection to be completed. I will have the updated totals in this thread on Wednesday when the Pick for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals will have been made.

Momentum is a good thing, but the layers are also on top of the numbers with the limited games on the board meaning they can put in a really good effort to be right on the money when it comes to the lines. That makes beating them even more challenging, but it has been so far so good in the Conference Finals so far.

Wednesday 25th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 5 Pick: The Boston Celtics led wire to wire in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals and they were able to level the Series with the Miami Heat at 2-2. While they did have a big lead at the end of the First Quarter, the Celtics will know they still have room for improvement and they are unlikely to face a Miami Heat team that was as out of sync as they were in the last game.

The starters all struggled in that loss, while the absence of Tyler Herro will have hurt the second unit- Herro looks like he may have to sit again, but I cannot imagine the Miami Heat play with the same lack of intensity as they showed in Game 4. Jimmy Butler earned plenty of rest in the second half as the Heat pulled their top players, although the Heat also need him to get back to the level he showed early in the Series.

Miami did not shoot the ball very well and they know the likes of Butler, PJ Tucker and Kyle Lowry are hurting, but a return to home comforts should offer the team a boost. You can't imagine them shooting as poorly as they did in Game 4, while the Miami Heat will be motivated by the fact the layers have them down as the home underdog.

They did respond to the Game 2 defeat by making a fast start to the First Quarter of Game 3 and that helped the Heat edge in front before the Boston Celtics levelled things up for a second time in the Eastern Conference Finals.

I am expecting much better from Miami in Game 5, but the Boston Celtics have already won a game here during the Eastern Conference Finals and will certainly believe they can do that again. They will also be the first to admit that they did not shoot the ball as well as they can in their blowout win over the Heat, but a dominant performance on the glass helped the Celtics come through with a vital win before heading to South Beach.

Boston will be looking for much better from the three point shooters who struggled to a 24% effort in the win in Game 4. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Grant Williams combined for just 4/26 from beyond the arc and the Celtics will be desperate to have Marcus Smart back in the line up after he missed the win at the TD Garden on Monday.

Marcus Smart has been shooting the ball well from the three point range and his Defensive ability is a huge part of the successes that the Boston Celtics have had. The absence did not have a major impact on the Defensive side of the court, but I think Marcus Smart will be needed in this tough road environment and especially if the Celtics want a spark at both ends of the court.

Recent Game 5 trends in the Conference Finals suggest Miami could be the team to back, but I think this is going to be one of the more competitive PlayOff games we have seen in the post-season in 2022. I am expecting both teams to shoot a little better than they did in Game 4, while the Celtics have produced an 8-2-1 record for the over in their last eleven as the road favourite.

At the same time the Miami Heat have a 9-2 record for the over in the last eleven games when they have played a team with a winning record. The first three games in the Eastern Conference Finals have all trended to the over and the total for this Game 5 looks low enough to believe it is one that will surpass the line.

I am expecting both teams to shoot the ball better than they did in Game 4 and especially from the three point range, which should see the teams carry the game over the total. Picking a winner is far from certain in this pivotal game and I will instead just focus on a relatively high-scoring game being produced.

Thursday 26th May

Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: After the events in Texas that have sickened most sensible people, Steve Kerr was emotional in his pre-game presser as he called on the lawmakers of the country to change the legislation to make life safer for children who have suffered mass shootings at schools far too often.

Basketball, and all other sports, are clearly not the be all and end all when tragic events like those we saw on Tuesday occur, but players have to do their jobs.

While the bigger picture was clearly on the mind of the Head Coach, there will also be some internal questions as to why the Golden State Warriors continue to struggle when it comes to a close out situation in a Game 4 of a PlayOff Series. They were trailing by a huge margin by the Third Quarter as the Dallas Mavericks shot very efficiently from the three point line and it meant Steve Kerr decided to pull his starters for the majority of the Fourth Quarter.

Some of those only returned when the bench players gave the Warriors a late opportunity to perhaps steal the game away, but ultimately the Golden State Warriors fell short and they will be looking for much greater intensity when returning home for a second close out opportunity.

The Dallas Mavericks have far from given up from turning the Western Conference Finals around and become the first team to win a Series from 3-0 down, but that means winning twice on the road at the Warriors. All they can do is take things a game at a time, while the Mavericks will be hoping the role players continue to shoot the ball as well as they did from the three point range last time out.

In Game 2, the Mavericks shot well in the first half here before they turned ice cold in the second half and allowed the Golden State Warriors to take control. At this stage of the post-season, I am not expecting the Mavericks to change their approach and that means moving the ball and hoping the role players continue to shoot lights out from the three point mark.

Ultimately I think that is beyond them and the Dallas Mavericks are just 3-6 on the road in the post-season, while the Warriors have won all eight home games.

Home comforts should help Golden State being much more intense all around and they have won a couple of games here against Dallas by wide margins already in the Western Conference Finals.

Recent trends in the Conference Finals favour them too- favourites have gone 11-3 against the spread in the last fourteen Game 5s played in the Conference Finals before this season, while teams coming in off a loss have produced a 10-4 record against the spread. The higher Seeded team have also dominated recent Game 5s in the Conference Finals too and all of these trends can be met by Golden State with another big home win on Thursday.

The Warriors are 4-1 against the spread following a straight up loss and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite.

At the same time, the Dallas Mavericks are now 1-6 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog and I do think it is much more difficult for the role players to keep their shots flowing in road games.

Golden State won by 25 points here in Game 1 and 9 points in Game 2 and I do think the Warriors can win and cover as they book their place in the NBA Finals next week.

Friday 27th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 6 Pick: A low-scoring Game 5 saw the most competitive First Half of the Eastern Conference Finals so far, but the Boston Celtics knuckled down after the break. That saw them continue to suffocate the Miami Heat on the Defensive side of the court, but the Celtics were also able to find some rhythm Offensively and now bring a 3-2 lead back to the TD Garden.

It has been twelve years since the Boston Celtics last made it through to the NBA Finals, but four losses in the Eastern Conference Finals and two of those from this position means there should be a focus and intensity to their Basketball.

They cannot take anything for granted, but the Boston Celtics have all of the momentum having secured back to back wins and holding the Miami Heat to 82 points and 80 points in those victories. Make no mistake, the Celtics will not want to start Game 6 as they did the last one when struggling from the field, and that means getting Jayson Tatum going as early as possible and looking for the role players to step up with more consistency at home.

Being at home should make that possible and the Celtics will want to come out with real intensity and aggression.

However, they also have to expect the Miami Heat to be much better than what we have seen from the Number 1 Seed in the last two games. Injuries are hurting the Heat at the wrong time of the season, but the players are all expected to suit up, including Tyler Herro, in what is a must win game for Miami.

Jimmy Butler has really struggled since picking up his knee injury in Game 3, while the likes of Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker and Gabe Vincent are all on the injury report ahead of this big game. The Heat have struggled shooting the ball from any distance and they have not been able to get to the foul line as quickly or as often as they would have liked.

Can much change now? Possibly- you have to expect Miami to shoot better than they have in the last two games considering how they played all season, while Jimmy Butler may choose to leave it all out on the court in a bid to bring this Series back to Miami for a Game 7.

In saying that, it is hard to argue against the momentum the Boston Celtics have picked up by winning consecutive games for the first time in the Eastern Conference Finals. They are a much more experienced team these days so it is hard to imagine them blowing a 3-2 lead again in the Conference Finals, while recent trends in Game 6 of this Round favour the Celtics too.

The last four teams that have tried to close out the Conference Finals in Game 6 have all won and covered their handicap mark having won those games by an average of 14 points per game. Boston have also continued the strong run Number 2 Seeds have had in the Conference Finals when set as the favourite having covered two out of three times they have been in that spot in this Series.

This is a very big number and the early money has been on the Miami Heat to move the line down, but those teams favoured by 5 or more points have put together a 3-1 record against the spread in the Conference Finals this season. It means those teams have improved to 34-22-1 against the spread since 2013 and I do think the Celtics may have too much scoring for the Heat to keep up with using players limited by injury.

In recent seasons the Miami Heat have been a strong team bouncing back off a loss and they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a double digit loss at home.

However, the Boston Celtics are 20-8-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine games overall and they look capable of closing the Eastern Conference Finals here.

Sunday 29th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 7 Pick: Back to back Series have ended up in a Game 7 for the Boston Celtic having blown an opportunity to join the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals in a home loss on Friday night. There will be frustration and one or two mental demons to exorcise considering many of the Celtics were part of the group that blew a 3-2 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals.

No one should be panicking, but the Celtics can ill-afford to start as poorly as they did in Game 6, especially not on the road. Turnovers in the First Quarter and then late Free Throws missed when the game was tied proved to be costly for the Boston Celtics, but they have to feel they are still the better team.

In saying that, can you really look past the Miami Heat? Jimmy Butler was back to his very best in leading the Heat with 47 points in Game 6, but the role players also stepped up and made some big plays late in the game to secure a return to South Beach for this huge Game 7 and they are clearly inspired by being ruled out by so many.

Once again they are going to be feeling like they are being disrespected as the home underdog, while teams that have won Game 6 in the Conference Finals have produced a 3-1 record straight up and against the spread in the last four times this has been needed. There are other trends that are going against the Boston Celtics too and that is a concern, but again I have to say they feel the better team with more to control.

They have shown they can contain the Miami Heat Offensively and Jimmy Butler is still playing on a sore knee so it has to be asked if he can produce the same as Game 6 two nights later.

Boston will feel they lost control of Game 6 and still had a chance to win it, while the favourite looks to have the money behind them going into this Game 7. Injuries could play a part, but this is the stage of the season where bodies have to be put on the line knowing there is a few days between the end of the Conference Finals and the start of the NBA Finals.

I expect tension, I expect the home crowd to be firmly behind the Miami Heat and I would love to see the referees take a step back and allow the players to decide the outcome of the match. That could be a factor if they get too involved, but this should be a really good game between two teams who have had some ups and downs in the Conference Finals.

For the most part, the Boston Celtics have looked more consistent and with control of their own destiny and they did win here in Game 2 and Game 5.

They have also covered in their last six games following a straight up loss, while the Celtics are 20-6-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven road games.

Miami have been very good at home and there is no doubt they will compete right to the end, but Boston are 4-1 against the spread in their last five here and I will back them to come through another Game 7 in their PlayOff run this season.

MY PICKS: 25/05 Miami Heat-Boston Celtics Over 203.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

26/05 Golden State Warriors - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

27/05 Boston Celtics - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

29/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 9-3, + 5.19 Units (13 Units Staked, + 39.92% Yield)

Semi Final: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)

First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2019 (May 29th)

The first three days at the French Open have been a mixed bag for the Tennis Picks, but at least there has been a winning start made to the tournament.

I've had a couple of below par days though and I am looking for much better as we move into the Second Round of the event. A couple of the selections have been poorly made if I am being honest with myself, but a positive return is still something to be pleased with after the First Round was completed.

You can read my Picks from Day 4 below and I have also updated the French Open totals.


Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Oscar Otte: In most Grand Slam events players would expect the challenges to only get tougher in each passing Round of those tournaments. On this occasion Roger Federer looks to be facing an opponent that is not quite as good as the one he beat in the First Round and I think that will also lead to the former World Number 1 covering what has to be seen as a very big number regardless of level of opponent.

Gone are the days when Federer would blitz through those standing on the other side of the net and the decline in the returning numbers mean he is a player that I don't want to be backing on a 4.5 spread line in a best of three set match. However those numbers are also evident on faster surfaces than the clay courts we see in Paris and I do think that is a factor that can't be ignored, especially when you think of how well Federer played in the First Round win over Lorenzo Sonego.

Roger Federer managed five breaks of serve and won 45% of the return points against an opponent who serve had been very effective on the clay courts in the lead up to this event. Lorenzo Sonego has also been playing at a higher level than Lucky Loser Oscar Otte whose main experiences have been on the Challenger circuit save for a fairly straight-forward defeat in the French Open in 2018.

The German has made full use of his reprieve to get into the main draw as he saw off Malek Jaziri in the First Round, but suffice to say this is the toughest match Otte will have played in his career. In the last couple of years Otte hasn't exactly prospered on the clay courts at the lower level and I do think it is going to be very difficult for him in this match if Federer is even 85% focused on the task at hand.

Oscar Otte has held 75% of the service games played on the clay courts in 2019 and broken in 25% of the return games played. He did dominate the Jaziri serve in the First Round, but Roger Federer faced just four break points in the First Round and has a very strong hold number on the clay courts in the lead up to Paris and he should be too good all around.

This is a massive experience for Otte to be able to face Roger Federer in a Grand Slam, but the 25 year old will have to play the match of his life to even make this competitive. It would be a monumental upset if Federer is not able to make it through in straight sets and I think he will find the breaks of serve he needs to produce a wide victory in this Second Round match.


Benoit Paire - 1.5 sets v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: One of the upsets in the French Open First Round came from Pierre-Hugues Herbert as he recovered from 0-2 down to beat the talented Russian Daniil Medvedev. There were some physical issues for Medvedev to deal with in that defeat, but it is no real excuse for him and Herbert will be looking forward to playing in front of the home fans again.

He may not receive quite the same level of support as he did in the First Round as he faces popular compatriot Benoit Paire who was a strong winner to move into this Second Round match. Some of the Champions from the final build up tournaments to the French Open have struggled since making it to Paris, but Paire has followed up his title win in Lyon with a strong four set win and his confidence has to be about as high as it ever has been on a clay court.

If Paire is honest, I think he would be the first to tell you that he has largely disappointed in previous French Open appearances. However this year he has been playing well on the clay courts and he looks like someone who is seeing the ball pretty big with a 31% break number from return games played on the surface.

There is no doubt he will need to see the ball well if he is going to beat Herbert. The serve is a big weapon for Herbert on any surface, but he has been effective on the clay courts too with an 82% hold number on this surface in 2019. In the last Round Herbert did have his issues against the strong Medvedev return though and I do think Paire is capable of exerting some pressure of his own.

The Benoit Paire serve can be erratic as someone who is perhaps not always making the right decision from a shot selection point of view. It should give Herbert a chance to get his teeth into the match, but the fatigue from the last Round is a worry as is the heavy defeat he suffered to Paire in Marrakech back in April.

On that occasion Paire was able to break in 34% of return games played and didn't lose serve once and it does give the higher Ranked Frenchman the edge in this one. Pierre-Hugues Herbert did lose three of four clay court matches before coming back from 0-2 down to knock off Medvedev and I think it is going to be difficult for him to pick himself up emotionally as I look for Paire to come through in three or four sets.


Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 sets v Alex De Minaur: There was literally no real form from Pablo Carreno Busta going into the First Round of the French Open having lost all four clay court matches played over the last two months. He looked a very vulnerable player especially after a draw that saw pitted with Joao Sousa, but the Spaniard dominated the match and made a mockery of the odds.

I have to admit I was very surprised he was not only able to win, but to win in such a dominant fashion. Injuries have contributed to Carreno Busta dropping down to World Number 57, but the lack of form and the 8% break number was not exactly pointing to him producing a win in which he broke the Sousa serve six times, won 50% of the return points played and faced just two break points throughout the match.

Pablo Carreno Busta is a much stronger favourite in the Second Round when he faces Alex De Minaur who had also lost all of the clay court matches he had played in preparation for the French Open. The Australian is likely to be much more productive when the Tour moves onto the grass and the hard courts following the end of the tournament, but De Minaur was also a strong winner in the First Round.

His win was less impressive than Carreno Busta's because of the level of opponent he was facing and De Minaur is going to need to be a lot better if he is able to win a match like this one. It is a big ask of a player who had been 1-8 in main ATP matches on clay before his win over Bradley Klahn in the First Round here and the De Minaur numbers are pretty poor both on the serve and the return.

The Aussie is only holding 61% of service games played on the clay courts in 2019 before the First Round win here. Alex De Minaur was not broken in the mach against Bradley Klahn, but I would expect Carreno Busta to exert a lot more pressure on the serve if he is anywhere near the level he produced in the last Round. And that also puts pressure on De Minaur to at least respond by chasing breaks of serve back if he is struggling to hold, but he has only broken in 17% of return games on the clay in 2019 and is at 19% for his career in main ATP Tour matches prior to the French Open.

The long-term injury issues have to be a concern, but I also think it will keep Carreno Busta focused and he won't want to extend his time on the court. If the Spaniard was fully fit I would have expected him to be much, much shorter in the market so injury concerns have been factored in and I think Carreno Busta can get into a position to move through in three or four sets.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 games v Hugo Dellien: If you take away the top two players in the world and asked people to pick a favourite to win the men's Singles title in Paris over the next couple of weeks, I would imagine Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be a popular name.

He already owns a win over Rafael Nadal on the clay courts in 2019 and Tsitsipas also made a big impact at the Australian Open when reaching the Semi Final back in January. The Greek youngster looks like he can play some of his better tennis on the clay courts too and I do think he is going to be a factor in the second week of this tournament.

Stefanos Tsitsipas comes into this Second Round match as a big favourite when he faces Bolivian Hugo Dellien. Both players made comfortable progress through the First Round without dropping a set, but Tsitsipas is playing at a different level than Dellien and I am not expecting the latter to be able to stick with him in this match.

Hugo Dellien did push Alexander Zverev to three sets in Geneva last week, but overall he has not really been able to push on when playing in main ATP Tour matches. Overall Dellien is someone who can play well on the clay courts, but his hold number slips to 70% when serving on the main ATP level and his percentage of breaks drops down to 26% in those matches too.

The return could cause one or two problems for some opponents, but Dellien isn't playing just anyone. Now he has to deal with Tsitsipas who has held 80% of service games played on the clay courts in 2019 and someone who has been very strong when facing players outside of the top 10 on the surface.

In those matches Tsitsipas has broken in 33% of the return games he has played on the clay courts and four more breaks of serve were added in the First Round win over Maximilian Marterer. I do think there is room for improvement for Tsitsipas on the return if he is going to step forward and start winning Grand Slam tournaments, but he is definitely on the up.

There is enough to like from his return to believe Tsitsipas can keep Dellien under pressure and begin to wear him down after coming through a couple of battling sets. This is a big number, but Tsitsipas has every chance of earning a 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 kind of win and I think he is capable of doing that against a player lower down the World Rankings where the Greek player has been particularly dominant.


Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: One name who is going to be a popular dark horse in the women's tournament is Marketa Vondrousova after some very strong performances on the clay courts in 2019. This surface is her favourite domain and Vondrousova is a big favourite to see off Anastasia Potapova who stunned Angelique Kerber in the First Round on Sunday.

Despite the injury concerns going into the tournament, Kerber had been a big favourite to beat Potapova who has not really been as effective on the clay courts as she would have liked.

The Russian was 2-4 on the clay courts before her win in the First Round here and Potapova had not exactly been given the toughest of draws in those losses which is a concern for her. I still think there should be some respect for Potapova who has raised her game when she has faced the better names from the Tour and that is underlined by a win over Anastasija Sevastova on the clay to go along with the win over Kerber.

She will need to pick up her level again when she faces Vondrousova who has improved to 10-2 on the clay in 2019. Losses to Petra Martic and Johanna Konta can be forgiven considering the type of form those two players have produced on the clay this season, but Potapova is not playing up to that standard and I do think Vondrousova can do enough to edge her out in both sets of a straight sets victory.

It will be the stronger returning being produced by Vondrousova that can provide the difference in this match. Her opponent has to deal with the emotions of the upset in the First Round and hope to keep her level high enough to stay with Vondrousova and that is always difficult for players that have not been used to winning the kind of match Potapova did.

Marketa Vondrousova is also just getting a little more out of the first serve than Anastasia Potapova and crushed her on the hard courts of Budapest earlier this season. On her favourite surface I am looking for the Czech player to get the better of Potapova and cover this line too.


Belinda Bencic - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: It is great to see Belinda Bencic playing some of her best tennis again, but she can't afford to allow her standards to slip when she faces Laura Siegemund in the Second Round.

In past years Siegemund has tended to reserve her best tennis for the clay courts, but the German has struggled on her return from injury. These days Siegemund is barely inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and she has struggled to put the wins together even on her favourite surface.

Laura Siegemund has not been past the Second Round of any tournament on the main Tour played on the clay in 2019 and she has had a tough time dealing with players Ranked in the top 100. In those matches the serve has been a vulnerable shot for Siegemund and means she is under pressure to respond with the return having won 43% of the points against the serve.

Now she has to face a Belinda Bencic who could start making a fast move up the World Rankings from her current spot of Number 15. Any further advance in the French Open draw will mean improving her points and Bencic doesn't have much to defend before Wimbledon.

Belinda Bencic looks to have the far superior serve in this match, although there are times when she can get a little flustered and throw away some of the service games she plays. It has been a particularly strong weapon for the Swiss star when she has faced opponents Ranked outside the top 20.

In those matches we have also seen Bencic win 47% of the return points played and I do think she can find the breaks of serve to win and cover this number. She was dominant in the First Round and Belinda Bencic should be capable of getting past an opponent that can be a tough out on a clay court.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Guido Pella - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Goffin - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Polona Hercog - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

French Open Update: 22-16, + 7.46 Units (76 Units Staked, + 9.82% Yield)