It felt unlikely that a higher Seed than Elena Rybakina would drop out of the French Open before the end of the first week, but the incredibly hot conditions ended up being a huge factor in Jannik Sinner's demise at the tournament.
At 6-3, 6-2, 5-1, the top Seed looked to be making routine progress into the Third Round.
Suddenly the heat got on top of him as Jannik Sinner mentioned feeling dizzy and sick and he then lost 18 of the next 20 games to be dumped out of a tournament in which he was a clear favourite after Carlos Alcaraz was unable to travel to Paris.
At the start of the tournament, it felt like the Women's Tournament was wide open, but the Men's now feels the exact same way.
Alexander Zverev will be favourite, but there is going to be a huge amount of pressure on all those competing knowing the opportunity that has come up and the bottom half of the draw looks much tougher to negotiate than the top.
The remaining ten days at this event are going to be fascinating.
It was not a very good day at all for the Tennis Picks- a couple were simply poor selections, while one retirement and a player losing their way in the second set after taking the opener contributed to a poor day in the office.
Overall the French Open remains in a positive position, but Friday is about bouncing back as the Third Round gets underway.
Rafael Jodar - 5.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The inspiration of Rafael Nadal means the top Spanish players are no longer considered clay court specialists, but capable of performing on all surfaces on the Tour.
Carlos Alcaraz has taken up the baton from Nadal, but he is missing at the French Open in 2026 and the Spanish media will be very much focusing on Rafael Jodar, the teenager who has enjoyed a really strong clay court season in the build up to Roland Garros.
It has been such a strong build up that Rafael Jodar has moved from World Number 89 in early April to one of the Seeding positions at the French Open. He is very confident on the hard courts too, but the clay is where he has made his move on the Tour and Rafael Jodar has to believe that the minimum expectation at this Grand Slam is reaching the Quarter Final.
Some will think that is overconfidence from someone who is playing in just his second Grand Slam tournament, but Rafael Jodar won a title in Marrakech before reaching the Semi Final in Barcelona and the Quarter Final at back to back ATP 1000 events in Madrid and Rome.
Suffice to say, he is feeling pretty good about his tennis and Rafael Jodar has dropped a single set through the first two Rounds.
There is an argument to be made that Rafael Jodar made life a little more difficult in the Second Round than he perhaps should have, but winning breeds confidence and no one should be surprised that he has been set as a big favourite in this Third Round match.
All credit has to be given to Alex Michelsen for finding his way through to the Third Round and the American could soon return to being a Seed at Grand Slam events having reached World Number 30 back in July last year. These days he is the World Number 42, which makes Michelsen one of those awkward early Round opponents that Seeds could run into, but he is at his most vulnerable on the clay courts.
The two wins at the French Open have been against the World Number 88 in the First Round and then the World Number 148 in the Second Round and the early loss for Taylor Fritz has opened things up for Alex Michelsen. Prior to the French Open, Alex Michelsen had compiled a 4-6 record on the clay courts and a player who is reliant on his serve finds it hard to deal with a 72% hold rate on the red dirt.
He wants to be aggressive, but that is not the right way to approach clay court tennis and it has put Alex Michelsen under pressure to deliver on the return, which is still a developing part of his game.
This is expected to play out in this Third Round match in Paris on Friday and Rafael Jodar should have a bit too much know-how on this surface for Alex Michelsen.
Rafael Jodar is 16-1 when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings on the clay courts this season- in the fifteen matches played before the French Open, Rafael Jodar has held 86% of service games in that situation and broken in 37% of return games and that is a level that should break down Alex Michelsen in this best of five set format and give the Spaniard every opportunity of covering a wide spread.
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 games v Jakub Mensik: These two players had extremely different experiences in the French Open Second Round and it is Alex De Minaur who HAS to be in better shape going into the Third Round.
The Australian received a Walkover into the Third Round, while opponent Jakub Mensik had to battle for twenty minutes shy of five hours to eventually prevail in five sets... That alone would not be an issue this early into a Grand Slam tournament, but Jakub Mensik was playing in incredibly hot conditions and had to be taken off in a wheelchair at the conclusion of the match.
Earlier in the week, Casper Ruud came through a five setter and won his next match having described himself as a 'zombie' on the court in what have been crazy conditions in Paris. At 20 years old, Jakub Mensik is likely to have pretty good recovery and he has admitted that he felt much better having spent some time off of a court that had almost no shade from the blistering heat of Wednesday.
On Friday it is expected to still be very humid in Paris, but overcast conditions may help- the sun beating down on anybody makes a big difference and so Jakub Mensik is going to feel he is ready to compete.
A bigger challenge is the opponent who reached the Semi Final in Hamburg and Alex De Minaur made pretty comfortable work of Toby Samuel in his sole match at the French Open. The Australian is unsurprisingly happier on the faster surfaces of the Tour, but over the last couple of years, Alex De Minaur has shown he can battle on the clay and his speed and effort around the courts will make it tough for any opponent to break him down.
Prior to the French Open, Jakub Mensik was only holding a 3-3 record on the clay in the lead up to the second Grand Slam of the season. The World Number 27 does bring a dangerous serve into play, but you do have to wonder if there is not going to be some impact on his ability to show patience that may be needed to break down Alex De Minaur.
Jakub Mensik is much happier on the hard courts, but he has lost all five previous matches against Alex De Minaur and all of that surface, which should aid his game more than the clay courts.
They have played nine completed sets against one another and Alex De Minaur has won eight of those, including a straight sets win at the United Cup leading up to the Australian Open earlier this season.
A statistic that is almost certainly going to end in this Third Round match is the fact that Alex De Minaur has NEVER been broken by Jakub Mensik- on a clay court, that is close to impossible to happen again.
However, it does tell you that the match up is pretty good in favour of the higher Ranked player and Alex De Minaur has also broken in 26% of return games played and on faster surfaces. Any time the World Number 7 sees the second serve, Alex De Minaur is going to feel he can win the rallies and the extra strength he should have in this Third Round match is likely going to be a critical factor as he looks to move past Jakub Mensik in a good looking contest.
MY PICKS: Rafael Jodar - 5.5 Games @ 1.60 William Hill (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
French Open Update: 11-7, + 3.80 Units (34 Units Staked, + 11.18% Yield)
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