It has long been considered that the majority of the best players will skip the last week in between this tournament and the start of the French Open, especially with a Sunday start in play at that Grand Slam and that is looking like being the case next week.
And that means Rome is the last big opportunity for those top names to make a statement ahead of the second Grand Slam title of the 2026 season.
Coco Gauff - 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: You cannot ignore the fact that Elina Svitolina has beaten Coco Gauff twice this season on the hard courts, including at the Australian Open, while the World Number 10 is not going to be lacking for confidence in the Rome Finals.
Victories over Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek, two of the French Open favourites, on back to back days have carried the Ukrainian into the Final, although the numbers suggest Elina Svitolina was perhaps a touch fortunate in both matches. In those two wins, Svitolina faced 36 Break Points compared with the 22 created, but she has played the big points as effectively as possible and this is a tournament the veteran has enjoyed playing.
Her best run at the French Open has been reaching the Quarter Final and Elina Svitolina has done that five times, but she was back to back Rome Champion in 2017 and 2018. and has reached the Quarter Final on three occasions since then.
Of course she is enjoying her best run in Rome since last winning the title here eight years ago and that makes Elina Svitolina dangerous.
There is room for improvement when you look at the Break Points faced and being created, but this will be a confident player and those two wins over Coco Gauff will stand her in good stead.
The American is very comfortable on the clay courts and her Semi Final win and the manner in which it was delivered will have given the World Number 4 plenty of reason to believe she can finally win a big clay court event at 1000 level.
Coco Gauff has been a consistent figure at the French Open- she has reached the Quarter Final five times in a row, while turning one of those into a Semi Final run, another finishing Runner Up and then finally winning the Grand Slam title in Paris eleven months ago. At the same time, she has reached the Final in Madrid and Rome, but losing both times, and Coco Gauff has two other Semi Final runs in the Italian capital before reaching another Final here on Thursday.
On the clay courts, serving numbers are going to make difficult reading compared with the faster surfaces, but both have been doing well enough- the difference here is that Coco Gauff has been the superior return player in Rome and that could see her begin to exert some control on this Final.
The second serve continues to be a vulnerability and Elina Svitolina should be able to attack that part of the Gauff game to real positive effect.
The same can be said for the higher Ranked player and this has the makings of a Final that should see both players pick up some momentum at different times.
However, the edge has to be with Coco Gauff who has shown a bit more consistency compared with Elina Svitolina, even if the latter seemingly matches up pretty well with the World Number 4.
Both winning a set would not be a surprise, but Gauff may still have enough in her return game to cover this spread even if the contest does need that deciding set to determine the Rome Champion in 2026.
MY PICKS : Coco Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Rome Update: 6-4, + 0.74 Units (10 Units Staked, + 7.40% Yield)
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