Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 15th May)

Another mixed day of results at the Rome Masters means the Picks for the tournament remain in the black, although not been able to add to some of the earlier successes.

There are just four days remaining in the Italian capital and then there will be a short break until the French Open begins on Sunday 25th May- the tournaments next week will be left for watching purposes as far as the Tennis Picks are concerned and the full focus will have turned to the second Grand Slam of the season.

Soon enough the Tour will move onto the grass courts and the build towards Wimbledon, but so many are going to be heading to Paris believing they can win a major tournament and that can only be good news for the fans. Grass remains a specialist surface and so the real contenders may be contained to a handful of players, but in Paris there are so many players looking in good shape and this should mean an entertaining viewing tournament, although one that can be tough to negotiate when making daily Picks from the event.

Before all of that, the Rome Masters needs to be concluded and Thursday looks a tough day- four matches are scheduled, but only one selection will be made from the second of the WTA Semi Finals.

Coco Gauff - 2.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: It might have been a win that will put another bit of momentum into Qinwen Zheng's career having got the better of the World Number 1 for the first time. The confidence can only be increased from the fact that she was a deserving winner and the Gold Medal Winner from the Paris Olympic Games will be a genuine threat to win the upcoming French Open.

Qinwen Zheng can really make a statement in Rome if she can back up her win over Aryna Sabalenka by beating the second best player in the world.

Seeing off the Madrid Champion will have been a huge boost for Qinwen Zheng, but beating the Runner Up in the next Round would only see her price shorten for success at a Grand Slam for the first time. Much will depend on the Zheng serve and whether she can continue to back it up as well as she has in this tournament, but this is expected to be a stern examination for the World Number 8.

Coco Gauff had a solid win over Mirra Andreeva in the Quarter Final and she has won three matches in a row without dropping a set.

Much like her fellow top ten Ranked opponent, the key for Coco Gauff is to continue protecting the second serve as she has done in this tournament. The American has clearly shown an aggressive and productive approach to her return of serve, but that is always going to be something Coco Gauff is comfortable doing when she knows she is able to roll through her own service games.

Qinwen Zheng does have a very good first serve, but she is looking for a big opener and that has seen her make 52% of her first delivery in the tournament. It is a number that needs to be improved so Coco Gauff is not getting a foothold in return games, and that is where the Semi Final could be won or lost.

Both previous matches between the players have been competitive, but it has been Coco Gauff who has created the majority of Break Points. One of those matches took place here in Rome twelve months ago and the higher Ranked player was able to come through a competitive opening set before pulling away from Qinwen Zheng and this could be another match that follows that kind of pattern.

Two players who should be there or thereabouts when the French Open reaches the last few days will be looking to lay down a marker here, but the edge feels like it is with Coco Gauff and she can come through a tough Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 11-8, + 1.29 Units (19 Units Staked, + 6.79% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 14th May)

Two selections were made on Tuesday and they returned at 1-1, which meant a slight loss on the day.

Overall the Rome Masters remains in a positive position and we are now into the Quarter Final Round for both the ATP and WTA events being run here, although with one Fourth Round match to be completed after the rain delays in the Italian capital.

Both selections made on Wednesday come from the WTA Quarter Final matches that have been scheduled with the two ATP Quarter Finals looking like they could be very competitive.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: She may not have been at her absolute best in the last two Rounds, but Aryna Sabalenka is set to head to the French Open feeling like the player to beat. The World Number 1 has yet to win a Grand Slam away from the hard courts, but picking up the title in Madrid and backing that up with this run to the Quarter Final in Rome will have given her so much confidence.

While Iga Swiatek has struggled for form, Aryna Sabalenka has looked very comfortable on every surface on which she has competed in 2025.

Winning titles will always make players believe that much more in what they are doing, but the win in Madrid isn't always the best indicator as to how someone will perform in Paris at the second Grand Slam. That clay court tournament in the Spanish capital has long felt different to most European clay events due to the conditions, but Aryna Sabalenka's run in Rome is a much clearer indicator of how tough she is going to be to beat.

Not being at her best and still winning matches can only aid Aryna Sabalenka if things get tough at the French Open and she will be keen to keep control of the head to head with a potential rival for the Championship.

This is the first time Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng will be playing on a surface other than a hard court and the respect for the latter will come from the fact she won Olympic Gold playing at Roland Garros last summer. The World Number 8 had been lacking some form on the clay courts in the lead up to Rome, but Qinwen Zheng has impressed in her three wins at the tournament and is now looking to snap the six match losing run against the Belarusian standing across the net.

There have been some competitive meetings in that time, but Qinwen Zheng has not served well enough to control the aggressive nature of Aryna Sabalenka.

Nothing is too wrong with the first serve when it lands, but the Zheng second serve can be vulnerable and that is where Aryna Sabalenka can strike.

During this run to the Quarter Final, Qinwen Zheng has really impressed with her returning, but she would be the first to admit of the qualities of the Aryna Sabalenka serve and how much of a step upwards this represents compared with the serves she has faced so far.

In their previous meetings, that Sabalenka serve has dominated the numbers and the run of wins on the clay can be pushed one more forward with another solid win over this fellow top ten Ranked opponent.

Coco Gauff - 1.5 games v Mirra Andreeva: It feels like Coco Gauff is a veteran of the Tour having made her breakthrough when she was very young, but the soon to be new World Number 2 is still only 21 years old.

She will certainly understand what Mirra Andreeva is going through as another youngster who made a big impression far before she turned 18 years old and who will have to handle the same expectations that Coco Gauff has dealt with in her own career.

The Russian player turned 18 years old at the end of April and she has everything in her tennis to have a real big impact at every Grand Slam event she plays. With a fairly open French Open coming up, Mirra Andreeva will have her backers when it comes to winning a maiden Grand Slam title, but she will have something to prove in this match up.

For now it is Coco Gauff who has had the better of the head to head with three wins from three matches played, including a strong win in Madrid in the previous tournament. That was also a Quarter Final win and the American took full advantage of the conditions to break down the Mirra Andreeva game and it will give Coco Gauff a huge amount of belief as she looks to lay down a marker to all by trying to win the tournament here in Rome.

Coco Gauff has shown a real comfort in playing on the clay courts over the last fifteen months and she has improved on some pretty good numbers that were set last year. There has been a bit more solidness behind the second serve, which can be so important on a surface like clay, and Coco Gauff has also been slightly stronger when it comes to the return and this adds up to a dangerous player.

No one should doubt the qualities of Mirra Andreeva when it comes to performing on the clay courts and her own numbers have been very impressive overall and during this run in Rome. She is not afraid of taking on the best players on the Tour on the clay courts either, but Andreeva's serve is still developing and that is something that Coco Gauff has tended to expose in their meetings.

Opposing Mirra Andreeva is not easy considering the talent she has, but she is facing a very good Coco Gauff and a player who has that appetite to try and stay on top of what could be a rival for the next decade.

Mirra Andreeva has played well in her three wins in Rome, but Coco Gauff may still be operating at a slightly higher level and she can frank that win in Madrid by beating the younger player in a second Quarter Final in succession.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Coco Gauff - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 10-7, + 1.42 Units (17 Units Staked, + 8.35% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Tuesday 13th May)

On another day, the Tennis Picks could easily have ended with a 0-4 record on Monday, but some luck landed in favour of the selections and the final 3-1 return is a positive one.

Naomi Osaka should have won her match in all honesty- it was a miss while leading 4-2 in the final set tie-breaker that turned the match against her, but she won 7 more points than Peyton Stearns and it is yet another unfortunate loss suffered since returning to the Tour.

A final set 6-1 score helped Hubert Hurkacz cover, despite dropping the second set by the same scoreline. He won the first set 6-3, but served at 5-1 before seemingly losing his way, although the late rally saved the Pick.

Both Jannik Sinner and Mirra Andreeva had tough tests before covering big numbers of their own, but you have to be honest and appreciate some of the fortune that was needed.

It puts the Rome Masters in a decent spot, but using that luck and building on it is the key to ensure a winning tournament ahead of the French Open. On Tuesday there is another loaded schedule to get through, but two Picks have stood out from the rest and those can be read below.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 games v Arthur Fils: This looks a quality Fourth Round match and one that will offer the French crowd something as they look for the next stars who will push to try and win the French Open in the years ahead. This match is taking place at the Rome Masters, but the second Grand Slam of the season is fast approaching and there has been plenty to like about the performances of Arthur Fils.

The young Frenchman has yet to win a main draw match at the French Open, but his development on the clay courts looks pretty impressive in 2025. He reached the Final in Monte Carlo, so will know how it feels like performing on the red dirt in friendly environments, and Arthur Fils has been able to follow that up with a Semi Final run in Barcelona and put two more wins on the board in Rome.

Two of the three clay court defeats this season have been against Carlos Alcaraz, the defending French Open Champion, and that can only encourage the home fans to really believe in Arthur Fils and his capabalities.

Beating the Runner Up from the 2024 French Open Final can only increase that confidence, but this a significant test for Arthur Fils against one of the top clay courters on the Tour.

It has not been the best few weeks on the surface for Alexander Zverev, but he won another title in Munich and the World Number 2 will most definitely feel he is peaking as we approach the French Open. His defeats to Matteo Berrettini and Francisco Cerundolo on the European clay have been in close matches and there remains a lot to like about the numbers that Alexander Zverev is producing on the red dirt.

He will have a respect for the capabilities of Arthur Fils and it was the youngster who won their match in Miami in March, while they are 1-1 in previous clay court matches.

The last of those was also won by Fils, but he needed to save 21/22 Break Points played that day and took almost all of the chances that he was able to generate on the return. Overall there has been a clear edge in the serving numbers in favour of Alexander Zverev and that could be key for the higher Ranked player to come through with a win and earn his place in the Quarter Final.

Arthur Fils has had some big wins on the clay already this season, which deserve a lot of respect, but Alexander Zverev may edge this one in three sets.

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Tommy Paul: Both of these players are more comfortable on the faster surfaces, but that is not to say that Tommy Paul and Alex De Minaur have not shown solid form on the clay courts.

The proof is that this match is being played in the Fourth Round and the two players have produced some very solid numbers on the surface over the last fifteen months. It should mean two confident players are heading out to the court in Rome, although the extra belief may be with Alex De Minaur having never been beaten by Tommy Paul on the pro Tour.

The Australian has produced some very solid numbers on the clay courts in 2025 and his three losses have been against Lorenzo Musetti (twice) and Carlos Alcaraz. Those are two players that are expected to have deep runs at the French Open and so De Minaur has to feel his current level is decent enough to push through to the second week of the Grand Slam that begins at the end of the month.

Over the last twelve months, Alex De Minaur has found improvement in his serve and that has entrenched him inside the top 10 of the World Rankings. That improvement has also been clear on the clay this season and it makes the World Number 8 dangerous with his ability to get plenty of balls back in play on the return.

Tommy Paul also deserves his credit for the way he has become a solid clay courter, but that has yet to be tested when playing some of the stronger players on the Tour.

The key to the match is that Alex De Minaur looks to be the superior return player and that may give him the edge at key moments.

Five wins from five previous meetings against Tommy Paul has really been based on the fact that Alex De Minaur has been the much better return player in those matches. The last three have needed to be decided over the distance, but they have not played for a couple of years and the feeling is that Alex De Minaur has made the clearer improvements in that time.

This should mean Alex De Minaur is comfortable enough in the match up and he can do enough to cover this handicap mark on his way to another clay court Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 9-6, + 1.67 Units (15 Units Staked, + 11.13% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Monday 12th May)

The second week at the Rome Masters begins with two really busy days as the entire WTA Fourth Round is played on Monday alongside the remaining ATP Third Round matches.

Tuesday will feature all of the ATP Fourth Round matches and the big names continue to focus on putting a strong tournament in the books to lay down a marker for the French Open. We are now under two weeks away from the First Round beginning in Paris at the second Grand Slam of the season and a very open tournament is set to take place, which can only be a positive for the fans who will be attending and following over the fortnight.

The two Sunday Picks came back with a 1-1 record which means a very narrow profit is still being held onto at this last big event before the French Open gets underway. However, there is plenty of work to get through before the Tour moves through the Italian capital and the hope is that Monday can put some momentum behind the selections moving into the weekend.

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Peyton Stearns: The Rome Masters has moved into the second week and that means Fourth Round action begins for those playing in the WTA event.

This remains the last big chance to put down a marker for the upcoming French Open and some of the biggest names on the Tour remain in action.

There is no doubting the power of the Naomi Osaka name, although it has been a struggle for her to get back to the consistency that once helped her take home four Grand Slam titles. They were all won on the hard courts and playing on the clay has long been something that Osaka has struggled with, but a title has been won on the surface prior to the event in Rome and two wins here will only help the confidence.

It has to be remembered that Naomi Osaka pushed Iga Swiatek all the way in their match at the French Open in 2024 and she is capable of using a big serve to at least set things up on the slower surface compared with her favoured hard courts.

In the Fourth Round, Naomi Osaka is up against Peyton Stearns, a player who has put plenty of wins on the board in this clay court season and who is about to set a new marker for a career-high World Ranking. Last year, the 23 old American won a title on the clay and reached the Third Round at the French Open and Stearns has to be further respected for winning six of eight matches on the surface in 2025.

This should be a tough match for both and they are going to be very reliant on serving well to try and keep the opponent under pressure.

Naomi Osaka has not been quite as good on the return, but her first serve feels like a big difference maker and that may be the way this Fourth Round match develops. Both players would feel much better on the hard courts, but the performances have been solid on the clay and it may be a match where Osaka's serving gives her the edge across three sets and it could be enough to see the former World Number 1 cover this handicap mark.

Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 games v Clara Tauson: Bigger expectations are always that much tougher to be met and there is some pressure on Mirra Andreeva to deliver, even at her tender age.

Once you move into the top ten of the World Rankings, people are going to expect you to go deep into the biggest events and Mirra Andreeva has all of the qualities needed to win a Grand Slam title as soon as this calendar year. There is a target on her back though, which may mean facing opponents that bring their best tennis to the court every time they see Andreeva across the net, but the World Number 7 has shown a really good temperament.

After breezing through the first set and being pushed in the second, Mirra Andreeva was able to get on top of Linda Noskova in the Third Round. Now she takes aim at another younger player on the Tour who could be a rival for years to come, and Mirra Andreeva would to keep the wins ticking over against Clara Tauson.

Both previous wins have been relatively comfortable on the scoreboard and Andreeva may feel she has more of an edge over Clara Tauson on a clay court compared with a faster surface.

Clara Tauson has won two matches in Rome having lost the previous two matches played on the clay, and her returning numbers have not been to the level that is going to be needed to win a big Fourth Round match like this one.

Last year the World Number 23 reached the Fourth Round at the French Open, so Clara Tauson can clearly perform on the surface, but this has not been a good match up for her and Mirra Andreeva is a solid clay courter.

She should have more returning success than in the previous two matches, especially on the clay, but Tauson has to be concerned about how ineffective her serve has been in the defeats to Mirra Andeeva.

We could see more of that in this Fourth Round match and Mirra Andreeva could secure another strong win against this rival.

Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 games v Marcos Giron: Injury has just made things difficult for Hubert Hurkacz over the last several months and he has missed much of the clay court season.

However, a solid Second Round win over Pedro Martinez is a reminder of the kind of comfort that the Pole displayed on the red dirt in 2024.

Serving well is always the key for Hubert Hurkacz, but he should also be pretty comfortable with the match up against an opponent who has shown little appetite for playing on the clay courts.

Prior to the two wins in Rome, Marcos Giron had won just two of the six matches played on the clay courts in the build up to the French Open. He did win more matches than he lost on the surface two years ago, but in the main Marcos Giron accepts this is a period of time on the Tour in which he tends to suffer plenty of early defeats.

The win over compatriot Taylor Fritz will give Marcos Giron confidence and being able to handle a big server like that could set him up for more in this Third Round contest.

We know how much Hubert Hurkacz relies on his serve, but there will be considerable pressure on Marcos Giron to make sure he is looking after that aspect of his tennis. He will be well aware that in three losses to the Pole, Marcos Giron has really struggled to get himself into the Hurkacz serve and the comfort on the surface should give the Seeded player the edge.

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 games v Jesper De Jong: He is playing at a career best World Ranking mark and Jesper De Jong has taken advantage of being given a Lucky Loser spot in the Rome Masters by winning two matches here. That means he is set for another improvement in the World Ranking from the current Number 93 next to his name and the Dutchman may feel he is playing with 'house money'.

The two wins here in the main draw have been solid victories for De Jong, but this is a huge step in terms of level of opponent now that the World Number 1 is standing in his way.

Returning from a three month suspension in front of the home fans who adore him will certainly have helped Jannik Sinner, but he will also be aware that tougher tests will be coming up. A controversial ban was accepted and so many of his peers, as well as fans, have not been happy with the deal done that allowed Jannik Sinner to compete and win the Australian Open and then return in time for the second Grand Slam of the season.

Unsurprisingly, Jannik Sinner did not have the easiest Second Round match, but the victory will help and he was able to crush Jesper De Jong at the Australian Open in 2024.

He lost just six games in cruising past De Jong and the returning numbers on a much faster surface should mean Jannik Sinner enters this match with a lot of belief and confidence.

The timing was not quite right on the return in the Second Round, but having that match under his belt should help the Italian. Jannik Sinner will feel that the match is going to be played on his terms and he has to be encouraged by the drop in service numbers produced by Jesper De Jong when he has faced a top 100 Ranked opponent on this surface over the last twelve months.

In that time frame, the likes of Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev have recorded strong wins over Jesper De Jong and Jannik Sinner may follow suit.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Hubert Hurkacz - 2.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jannik Sinner - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 6-5, + 0.25 Units (11 Units Staked, + 2.28% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 11th May)

The Rome Masters continue and there is another busy day of tennis in the Italian Capital.

The two selections from the host of matches to be played can be read below after a solid Saturday to turn the week around and move the profit/loss from the red into the black.

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Bianca Andreescu: Both of these players are former Grand Slam Champions, but injuries have really held back Bianca Andreescu.

She enters the tournament in Rome as the World Number 121 having reached a peak of Number 4 in October 2019 and the Canadian is still only 24 years old. Back to back wins to move through to the Third Round will have given Bianca Andreescu a boost in confidence, but this is another significant obstacle for her to overcome.

There will be no doubt about that after Bianca Andreescu was beaten by Elena Rybakina in Madrid and the former also suffered a very early exit at a Challenger event that Andreescu took in between the two Masters events.

The higher Ranked player has not been in great form of late, but Elena Rybakina won the tournament in Rome two years ago and she was a solid winner in the Second Round.

The match up has also suited Elena Rybakina having won all three previous matches against Bianca Andreescu with the first serve being a dominant part of those wins. It was the case last time out when the players met in Madrid and that has allowed Elena Rybakina to have success with her aggressive style of play.

Nothing has been happening easily for Elena Rybakina in recent weeks, but the relative comfort level of this kind of match up should help in her bid to move into the second week of the event.

Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 games v Linda Noskova: Two very young players on the Tour meet for the fourth time and you have to give Mirra Andreeva a real edge in this Third Round match.

Her overall form across the clay court season has been much stronger than Linda Noskova's, while the 18 year old Russian has pushed through to the top 10 in the World Rankings.

A real concern for Linda Noskova ahead of this match is the vulnerability of the second serve and that is something that Mirra Andreeva will be looking to exploit. It has been a real problem for Noskova in the previous three matches played against Mirra Andreeva and the World Number 30 is simply not returning well enough to cover for that vulnerability.

She has been able to challenge Mirra Andreeva, and it has to be noted that the World Number 7 has not been at her absolute best over the last month. Mirra Andreeva is still developing into the kind of server she is going to be on the Tour, and that has allowed opponents to put her under some pressure.

Even then, the talent edge is with Andreeva against most opponents and that has allowed her to win the big points and put up strong scores across the board.

This is a big spread all things considered, but Mirra Andreeva is capable of breaking serve enough times to secure the cover. Linda Noskova is talented and has to be motivated in trying to beat the younger player making the big headlines on the Tour, but she may come up short for a third time in a row in this Third Round match.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mirra Andreeva - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 5-4, + 0.25 Units (9 Units Staked, + 2.78% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 10th May)

Another day of mixed results at the Rome Masters means it has been a slow start to the tournament.

Action moves onto the Third Round as far as the WTA tournament is concerned, while the ATP event concludes the Second Round schedule when we move into the first weekend in Rome and there are three selections which can be read below.

Tomas Machac - 3.5 games v Learner Tien: The next crop of American tennis players are never that far away and 19 year old Learner Tien has already made an impact on the Tour.

He put some solid performances together at the Australian Open and has cracked the top 70 in the World Rankings, although Tien is going to have to go through the same experiences as so many of his compatriots during this European clay court swing.

Like many American players, the red dirt can take some getting used to for those playing on the Tour and Learner Tien is having a first full year playing clay court tennis. He did have a decent run in Munich, which will give Tien confidence, but early losses in Madrid and Estoril are just a reminder of the challenge that so many players from the United States face when playing on an unfamiliar surface.

He beat fellow American Reilly Opelka in the First Round, but this is a different challenge for Learner Tien against a player from Europe who will be much more comfortable on the clay courts.

Tomas Machac is a solid all around player and is the current World Number 20 as he looks to become the next big player representing Czechia. He has a 25-16 record on the clay courts in 2023 and 2024 combined, but it has not been the most productive time for him on the surface in 2025 having lost two of the three matches played and not having any kind of impact in Monte Carlo or Madrid.

A loss of focus has perhaps been a problem considering Machac won the first set in the two matches he has been beaten, and he has not served nor returned as well as would be expected.

This should be a more comfortable match up for Tomas Machac against someone he has beaten before and who is still learning how to craft points on the clay.

Respect will be given to Learner Tien for the level of performances he has produced considering his inexperience on this surface, but Tomas Machac should be the stronger player on the clay and that can show up on the scoreboard at the end of this Second Round match.

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 games v Fabian Marozsan: It has been a difficult twelve months for Andrey Rublev and he continues to struggle to find the consistency needed to get to where he wants to go.

That inconsistency is summed up by his clay court record in 2025 with two wins and three losses and Andrey Rublev is looking to put a strong tournament in the books to build confidence before the French Open begins. He has managed to win a match at both Monte Carlo and Barcelona before exiting events and Andrey Rublev is narrowly favoured to win this Second Round match in Rome.

Despite the record on the clay, Andrey Rublev has been able to put some solid numbers together and that has to be respected.

He serves very well on the surface and Rublev is an aggressive and very capable return player, while previous successes at Roland Garros underlines the ability of the World Number 17 when it comes to playing on this surface.

First up for Andrey Rublev is a match with Fabian Marozsan who upset Joao Fonseca in the First Round.

The Hungarian did reach the Semi Final in Munich last month, but Fabian Marozsan has not exactly put the wins together in Monte Carlo or Madrid around that tournament. He is a comfortable clay court player, and has plenty of wins on the surface, but this feels like a big increase in level of opponent and Fabian Marozsan has struggled to step up.

Over the last twelve months, Fabian Marozsan has a 3-7 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the clay courts and he has struggled in all aspects of his tennis.

In three previous matches against Andrey Rublev, Fabian Marozsan has had difficulty in attacking the Russian's serve and that can be a problem on the clay courts. He only won 34% of return points against Rublev when the players met on this surface last year and Fabian Marozsan could struggle to keep the aggressive top 20 Ranked player from getting on top in key moments.

Andrey Rublev will have to play well, but he is capable against an opponent of this level and he can make it through to the Third Round with a win and cover.

Jasmine Paolini - 3.5 games v Ons Jabeur: This does feel like a pick opposing Ons Jabeur rather than backing Jasmine Paolini, but the World Number 5 deserves her respect for her clay court ability.

The defeat to Maria Sakkari in Madrid will feel disappointing, but Jasmine Paolini had a good run in Stuttgart which was only ended by Aryna Sabalenka. During that path through to the Semi Final, the Italian was able to beat Coco Gauff and that victory looks all the stronger after Gauff reached the Madrid Final.

She is facing Ons Jabeur who benefited from a walkover in the Second Round, but who has played one clay court match this year and been beaten in that one. An injury has meant a lot of time has been missed and Ons Jabeur has fallen out of the top 30 of the World Rankings, even if she remains a talented player on the Tour.

Winning matches is important and Ons Jabeur has simply not been doing enough of that recently as she has struggled to remain healthy.

Previously the Tunisian has been a very comfortable clay court player, but 2024 was a tough year on this surface and the lack of matches in 2025 has to go against Jabeur here.

Last year, Jasmine Paolini beat Ons Jabeur on the clay courts of Stuttgart and she may be able to back that up against an opponent who may run out steam. You know Paolini will keep going for as long as needed and the higher Ranked player may come through with a good looking win on the scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Tomas Machac - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jasmine Paolini - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 3-3, - 0.46 Units (6 Units Staked, - 7.67% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 9th May)

The opening selections in Rome produced a 1-1 record, but the tournament has only just got underway and the Second Round action from the ATP Masters event is only getting underway on Friday.

There are a couple more selections from the Friday action compared with the opening Picks made, and the hope is that we can put some early winners on the board to build some positivity and momentum to take through the entirety of the event and then onto the French Open.

Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: Winning the title in Madrid has previously been followed by early exits in Rome as far as Aryna Sabalenka is confirmed and she will be looking to avoid that fate in 2025.

She has had previous successes when playing in Rome, but before last year those were in tournaments after the World Number 1 had not performed as well as expected in Madrid. Things changed in 2024 when Aryna Sabalenka reached the Final of both Masters events in the lead up to the French Open and the top Seed is more than capable of adding a first non-hard court Grand Slam title to her collection over the next few weeks.

With Iga Swiatek not looking her dominant self on the red dirt, Aryna Sabalenka may be in a position to take advantage having won that title in Madrid and reached the Final in Stuttgart. This is still a challenging surface to deal with considering the heavy shots produced by Sabalenka do not have the same kind of impact as on other surfaces, but the Belarusian is playing with confidence and belief and could make a very strong start to the Rome Masters in this Second Round match.

Anastasia Potapova has to be respected on the clay having finished with a winning record in each of the last three seasons on this surface. She has a 5-1 record on the clay this year too and reached the Fourth Round in Madrid, while a decent first serve can help the World Number 34 be competitive.

Having a win on the board in Rome means the conditions should be more familiar to the lower Ranked player, but Anastasia Potapova will know the kind of test that Aryna Sabalenka provides.

They were supposed to meet in Stuttgart last month, but Potapova had to withdraw and offer Aryna Sabalenka a walkover, but their only previous meeting were on those same clay courts in 2023. On that day it proved to be a comfortable win for Sabalenka and the expectation is for her to get on top of this match once getting through some sticky opening games as the adjustment from Madrid to Rome is made.

If Aryna Sabalenka's first serve is operating at close to full tilt, she should have enough to find the breaks of serve to end up covering what is a wide spread.

Elena Rybakina - 5.5 games v Eva Lys: It has been a testing twelve months off the court for Elena Rybakina and that has to have affected her focus on her tennis.

Results are still solid enough, but Elena Rybakina has not been playing a lot of tournaments and that has seen her drop out of the top ten in the World Rankings. There are some significant points to defend over the next few weeks and so there is some pressure on the 2023 Rome Champion to put some wins on the board in her return to the event.

Injury force Elena Rybakina to miss the defence of her title, but that did not prevent her from having a run to the Quarter Final at the French Open. In Madrid she was beaten earlier than expected and so this feels like an important tournament for the World Number 12 who has shown a solid ability to play on the surface.

First up is a Second Round match against Eva Lys of Germany, a 23 year old playing at her career best World Ranking mark and looking for an upset that could take her into the top 60 for the first time in her career. Stronger results have meant having direct entry into these big tournaments and Eva Lys has a 4-3 record on the clay in 2025 following her First Round win.

However, it should be noted that Eva Lys has perhaps benefited from kind draws and she has been well beaten by Jasmine Paolini and Jessica Pegula on the surface over the last month.

Eva Lys had lost five matches in a row against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts before the win over Moyuka Uchijima in the First Round and those losses had rarely been very competitive. While she has been able to have some success on the return in the matches against top 100 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months, the Eva Lys serve has been incredibly vulnerable and a player like Elena Rybakina could be on the front foot for much of this match.

With a strong serve, Elena Rybakina could keep the pressure on Eva Lys and that should see her move into a position to break the serve pretty consistently. Those can add up to help Rybakina move into the Third Round without too many stresses and she is capable of covering the line set for this match.

Maria Sakkari - 3.5 games v Magda Linette: For a long time, Maria Sakkari was keeping her Ranking high enough by putting strong results together outside of the Grand Slam events.

Those have dried up to such an extent that she has fallen down to World Number 81 and Maria Sakkari had to Qualify to take part in the Rome Masters.

In saying that, she has won two Qualifying matches and worked her way through the First Round and that will have given Maria Sakkari some confidence moving forward. Reversing the slide down the World Rankings would be a boost for a 29 year old who may be questioning her future in the sport and another victory in this match would back up the strong showing in Madrid.

Maria Sakkari got the better of Magda Linette in Madrid and she can frank that form here.

That loss is the only clay court match played by Linette this season and the World Number 32 has always been a little inconsistent on the clay courts. She will have one good season and one setback season and it does feel like Magda Linette is a vulnerable Seed in the draw considering her lack of time spent on the red dirt in the build towards the French Open.

It will be important for Maria Sakkari to serve as well as she did when the players met in Madrid, but she should be playing with enough confidence to come through any sticky moments. The Greek player may not be operating at the level that took her to World Number 3 a little over three years ago, but Sakkari is showing better signs during this clay court swing and can secure a solid win in this Second Round meeting on Friday.

Arthur Fils - 2.5 games v Tallon Griekspoor: The soon to be 21 year old Frenchman is still trying to find the consistency that would make him a truly serious player on the Tour, but Arthur Fils continues to develop really well. At the end of April he moved into a new career high World Ranking mark of Number 14 and Fils has to be looking forward to the French Open and perhaps giving the home crowd a new player to root for.

Strong runs in Monte Carlo and Barcelona have boosted the World Ranking, but Arthur Fils was disappointingly beaten very early in Madrid.

Now he has the chance to bounce back, but Tallon Griekspoor will offer a significant test for the younger player and the Dutchman can only take confidence from reaching the Final in Marrakech and Quarter Final in Munich on the red dirt. His loss to Jack Draper in Madrid does not look too bad considering the British player made it through to the Final of that Masters event and Tallon Griekspoor has beaten Arthur Fils on the big stage of the Australian Open in January 2024.

Their most recent meeting actually came in Monte Carlo last month and on that occasion Arthur Fils dominated and deserved to move past Tallon Griekspoor. The latter was perhaps fortunate to even win a set on the day, but the doubt is raised by Arthur Fils' inconsistency on the Tour.

Both have served well on the clay courts this season and that will stand them both in good stead in their bid to reach the Third Round.

However, it is Arthur Fils who has had the edge on the returning numbers and that was also the case when the players met one another in Monte Carlo. Those can be very fine margins in which the difference can be seen and you have to believe the confidence of Fils is well placed to ensure he franks the win from Monte Carlo by producing another one here in the Second Round in Rome.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (1 Unit)

Arthur Fils - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Rome Update: 1-1, - 0.13 Units (2 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Thursday 8th May)

After a very productive return from the Monte Carlo Masters last month, the decision was made to just sit back through the next couple of weeks of the Tour and allow players to settle into the clay court groove.

It has also been clear in recent years that the Madrid Masters tournament plays incredibly different to most clay court events and my recent numbers at that event have not been good at all. With that in mind, it was pretty easy to wait until the Rome Masters before the next set of Tennis Picks would be made and this is the last big event before the French Open begins.

Casper Ruud and Aryna Sabalenka left the Spanish capital as Champions and there is a definite feeling that both Singles events at Roland Garros are going to be wide open- Iga Swiatek has not been at her dominant best on her favoured surface, while Carlos Alcaraz, the defending men's Champion at the French Open, has been struggling with some health issues.

Jannik Sinner is back this week in Rome after serving a suspension and he will want to make an early statement about his credentials of winning a maiden French Open title, even if not all of his peers are going to be too happy to see him back on the Tour. The timing of his suspension has been seen as all too convenient for the World Number 1 and Sinner will have to accept that there are going to be plenty of doubters that will be keen to see him upset.

He benefits from returning in Rome where the crowds are not going to be hostile, but Jannik Sinner will have tougher environments in which to compete moving forward. The Tour and the player will be keen to put the saga of a failed test behind them, but others are not going to play ball with that and there has been a definite damage done to the sport.

The hope is that the headlines will be made by those on the court and this second big Masters event in the lead up to the French Open is perhaps a better indicator of how players may perform in Paris when the second Grand Slam of the season gets going at the end of the month. The quick turnaround from Madrid could lead to some early upsets, but for most this is the last chance to put some competitive tennis under the legs before all eyes are fixated on the French capital ahead of the grass court season and short run into Wimbledon.

It has been a decent season so far for the Tennis Picks and a bounce back from 2024, but we are not even close to the end of the year and plenty of twists and turns have to be negotiated.

The hope is another strong clay court tournament for the Picks could offer up some real momentum to take into the French Open selections- after this event in Rome, the next Tennis Picks will be from Day 1 at the French Open which begins on Sunday 25th May, but first the concentration is on having a strong showing here.

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Jessica Bouzas Maneiro: Throughout her career, Elina Svitolina has always been a solid clay courter, but perhaps not someone who could seriously be considered as a French Open Champion. That may sound harsh on a player that has reached the Quarter Final at the second Grand Slam of the season on four separate occasions, but that is where the run has tended to end.

This year the hope for Elina Svitolina is that she can go at least one step further- she has won a title on the clay courts already and had won nine in a row on the surface before losing in the Madrid Semi Final to eventual Champion Aryna Sabalenka. That run has pushed the Ukrainian back inside the top 15 in the World Rankings and will mean Svitolina will enter the French Open as a higher Ranked player than she was twelve months ago.

Credit has to be given to Elina Svitolina for the consistency she continues to show on the Tour and she will certainly arrive in Rome with some good memories of the event.

Since returning to the Tour after becoming a mother, Elina Svitolina has a 2-2 record here, but she did win the Rome tournament in back to back years in 2017 and 2018 and also reached consecutive Quarter Finals in 2020 and 2021. That is a run of form that deserves respect and Elina Svitolina is a big favourite to get the better of Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the Second Round.

The World Number 72 is from Spain and so it is no surprise that the majority of her time and energy is spent on the clay courts.

Jessica Bouzas Maneiro has had the majority of her success in tournaments below the main WTA level, which is why her career best World Ranking has been Number 52, but she has put some wins together in Rouen, Madrid and Rome that will give her some belief. However, the run in Rouen ended at the hands of Elina Svitolina, who went on to win the title there, and Bouzas Maneiro has not had much experience in facing the top players on the Tour with a 1-2 record on the clay against top 50 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months.

She is young and developing and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro will know what to expect having faced Elina Svitolina last month, but closing the gap that existed on the day will be tough. Her serve is a touch vulnerable, especially at this level, but Bouzas Maneiro may be able to make things a bit more competitive if she is able to take her Break Point opportunities.

You know Elina Svitolina will offer some of those out, but the higher Ranked player is a bit more consistent behind her second serve and has the return game to keep her Spanish opponent under some pressure. The Break Points will be key, but the feeling is that Elina Svitolina will play those a little better as she did when the pair faced off in Rouen and that should see the World Number 14 cover on her way through to the Third Round.

Jaume Munar - 2.5 games v Tomas Barrios Vera: It has not been a productive clay court season for Jaume Munar, which will be a disappointment for the Spaniard, but there are still some big Ranking points to fight in the next two big tournaments.

Jaume Munar is going up against a tough opponent in terms of the clay court experience, but Tomas Barrios Vera has earned his strongest results below the ATP Tour level.

His two main ATP matches have ended in convincing defeats, and Barrios Vera has slipped out of the top 100 in the World Rankings. However. the Chilean has produced plenty of wins on the surface, which is going to give him some belief in his tennis and that is perhaps why the layers have not made Jaume Munar a stronger favourite.

The numbers have not been very good this season as the losses have piled up on the clay, but Jaume Munar is a solid player on the surface and this should be a winnable match. He has had some very disappointing losses in the build up to the French Open, although Jaume Munar will take confidence from the fact he has beaten Tomas Barrios Vera twice previously.

Both matches took place on the clay courts, albeit at Challenger events, and the last of those was played in September last year.

Tomas Barrios Vera has played his part in those matches and taken a set, but Jaume Munar has found the tennis needed at big moments to come out on top and that could be the case again in Rome in this First Round meeting.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jaume Munar - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

2025 Season: 74-52, + 17.37 Units (164 Units Staked, + 10.59% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (May 12th)

There continues to be inconsistent returns for the Tennis Picks this week in Rome, but I have felt happier with the selections and can only be a little disappointed that players were not able to complete wins when being in strong positions.

Only one really hit that on Wednesday when Stefanos Tsitsipas was serving for the match and ended up being broken twice in a row.

Of course that doesn't mean anything in a long season, but I am a couple of Picks away from having a much stronger record this week. A bit of fortune would not go amiss on another very busy day in Rome when the entire Third Round is played in both the ATP and WTA events being played here.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power

Jil Teichmann @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Rome Update: 9-12, - 8.08 Units (42 Units Staked, - 19.24% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 14th)

I was hoping to have more time to write out a fuller piece for the Friday selections from the Rome Masters, but unfortunately that has not been the case.

I will look to do better for the remainder of the tournament, but suffice to say I am putting in the same time delving into the numbers and trying to find the right players.

So far it has been a difficult season, but one that has offered plenty of learning opportunities before the French Open gets underway.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 13th)

I am going to write out a longer post for the Friday selections at the Rome Masters, but a strong afternoon saved what was a difficult and frustrating morning on Wednesday.

Maybe at last I have some positive momentum to take into the remainder of this tournament and get things moving in a positive direction, but much will depend on how the selections run on Thursday when the Third Round is played.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 0.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Rome Masters Update: 8-13, - 12.24 Units (42 Units Staked, - 29.14% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 12th)

It was a frustrating Tuesday at the Rome Masters for my Tennis Picks and that is largely down to the fact that it felt like a pretty good day aside from the eventual results.

I have not had a very good season to this point and it is a far cry from the majority of the season since I started to do this, but I do think there is a positive run coming sooner rather than later.

You have to stay balanced and stay clear of thought, but I do hope we have a recovery day on Wednesday when there is a very, very busy day at the tournament after rain curtailed play on Tuesday. Essentially we have a full Second Round for both the ATP and WTA Tournaments to be completed over the course of what is going to be a long day and I do have a number of selections from the play to come.

I have written out some of the analysis as to why I am making the selections I am, but adding the remaining selections below.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 games v Marin Cilic: Defeats to Rafael Nadal and Casper Ruud on the clay courts won't have dented too much of the confidence that Stefanos Tsitsipas usually brings to his tennis. Both of those players will be expecting to have strong showings at the French Open, but Stefanos Tsitsipas will feel he deserves his place alongside them as one of the top names that could win the next Grand Slam to be played.

The relatively early defeat in Madrid will have hurt, but Tsitsipas will arrive in Rome believing he can have a strong run to match his showing in Monte Carlo where he took the title home. The numbers in 2021 have been really impressive on the red dirt and Stefanos Tsitsipas has long played his best tennis on this surface, while improving on other surfaces all the time.

One of the main criticisms of Stefanos Tsitsipas is his return game and not getting as much from that side as he perhaps should and needs if he wants to win the major titles that he will be targeting. However, the Greek player usually finds his best returning on the slower clay courts and there has been an improvement on that side of his game in 2021 with 32% of return games played ending in a break of serve.

Stefanos Tsitsipas is able to build scoreboard pressure with his strong serve and it is key for him to produce that against veteran Marin Cilic in this Second Round match. Marin Cilic came from behind to win his First Round match against Alexander Bublik, but the Croatian is not the player he once was and Cilic has been dropping down the World Rankings which means he is likely going to be entering the French Open Unseeded.

The last twelve months has seen Marin Cilic produce a 15-15 record, but some of his better performances have come on the clay courts even if the numbers are pretty average.

Marin Cilic does have a decent serve, but he is winning just 63% of points behind it on this surface in 2021 and he is holding in less than 80% of his service games. At his best Cilic was a very good return player, but his numbers have declined significantly on this side of his game over the last sixteen months and I think that is where Stefanos Tsitsipas should be able to take advantage and begin to exert pressure on the veteran across the net.

The early games could be important in this one and it will be important for Tsitsipas to prevent Marin Cilic from building a rhythm behind his serve. The returning shown by the current top 10 World Ranked player is encouraging enough to believe Stefanos Tsitsipas will move into a position to win and eventually cover a big spread.

Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: He has spent some time away from the Tour to rebuild some of the fitness and Dominic Thiem has made it clear that will be scheduling his appearances in tournaments with much more care and attention going forward. The return in Madrid last week was a solid one for Thiem who reached the Semi Final at the Masters event before coming up short against Alexander Zverev, but the Austrian will be feeling good about his chances of having another solid week here in Rome.

He won the US Open last year, but Dominic Thiem has been very close to winning the French Open in recent seasons and he has long been considered one of the top three clay courters on the Tour alongside Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Others might have pushed their way into consideration as potential Grand Slam Champions in Paris, but Dominic Thiem will believe there is a chance for him at the French Open as long as he can put some more solid matches under his belt beforehand.

Dominic Thiem will feel this is a big week for him in that regard and he has proven to be an effective returner on the clay courts. There will be an improvement in the return numbers produced in Madrid and that is largely down to the fact that the conditions at that clay court tournament are quicker than you would find in other European events played on the red dirt.

The opponents also contributed to the Thiem return numbers, but he should have more chances to get into the return games against Marton Fucsovics. The Hungarian has shown decent pedigree on the clay courts throughout his career, but Marton Fucsovics lost in the First Round at both the Monte Carlo Masters and Madrid Masters before beating a Lucky Loser in the First Round here in Rome.

It will be encouraging for Marton Fucsovics, but his serve is one that can be attacked and I think Dominic Thiem will be able to have success against him in this Second Round match. A talented player like Fucsovics is capable of playing well on the return on most surfaces, but I do think it is a tough challenge for him against this Thiem serve which has proved to be one of the big weapons in the Austrian's arsenal when playing on the clay.

Last week we saw strong serving from Thiem for the most part and he has also won all three previous professional meetings against Marton Fucsovics. All of those wins have come on the clay courts over a number of years, but the most recent came in Hamburg in July 2019 and it resulted in a relatively one-sided win for the higher Ranked player.

In those previous matches, Dominic Thiem has had a huge advantage when it comes to the return of serve compared with Marton Fucsovics and it has seen him pull clear for the victory. The feeling is that something similar will happen in the Second Round in Rome and I think Thiem can work his way to a win and a cover.

Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Jannik Sinner: There is going to be much excitement in Rome on Wednesday as one of the more talented Italian players coming through the ranks takes on the 'King of Clay' Rafael Nadal in the Second Round. I don't think there will be much intimidation or feelings of awe for Jannik Sinner who played out a memorable match against Nadal at the French Open last Autumn and who has already opposed the likes of Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas on the red dirt this season.

Jannik Sinner has come up short in both of those matches though and he was beaten handily in Madrid last week by Alexei Popyrin, which would have been a big disappointment. However, I expect him to be inspired playing at home and last season Sinner had a very good run in Rome which included a win over Stefanos Tsitsipas.

There is plenty to like about Jannik Sinner's tennis and I think the Italians will be very happy with some of their younger players coming through on the ATP Tour to take over from the likes of Fabio Fognini and Andreas Seppi who are veterans of the Tour. He looks to be at his best on the clay courts and the numbers have been decent in 2021, although Sinner will likely want to get a bit more out of his serve to back up the 30% mark of return games in which he has broken serve.

Over the last twelve months Sinner has held just shy of 80% of the service games played and backed that up with breaks in 33% of return games played on the red dirt. Those numbers are very impressive, but the two fairly one-sided losses to Tsitsipas and Djokovic this season have come in a similar manner as Jannik Sinner's serve has been hurt and his return has not quite reached the levels needed.

Those two players will be the favourites to win the French Open alongside Rafael Nadal who is the latest top 10 World Ranked player that Sinner will take on this season. The Spaniard has long been the top clay courter on the ATP Tour, but his numbers are significantly down on the marks produced in recent seasons, although that is not to say that Rafael Nadal is still not playing at a very good level.

Rafael Nadal will still be largely happy with his return game, but the Spaniard will be trying to find the right solutions to make the serve a more potent weapon. The former World Number 1 is still holding in 81% of service games played on the clay courts in 2021, but in recent years those numbers have been pretty consistent at 87%, 86%, 87% and 88% between 2020 and 2017.

It might not look a lot, but that is a significant knock on the Rafael Nadal serve and it is making matches that much more difficult for him to negotiate. It cost him in his defeat to Alexander Zverev last week in Madrid, but Nadal has been holding at 86% of service games played against opponents Ranked outside the top 20 of the World Rankings.

That could be key for him in this Second Round match as he looks to lay down a marker before the French Open begins.

It was a highly competitive first two sets when these two players met at the French Open, but Nadal had a significant edge on the returning side on that day. Now he has experienced what Jannik Sinner will throw at him, I think Rafael Nadal should be more comfortable in this match and he should be able to produce the tennis to earn his way through to another Third Round in Rome.

Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 games v Stefano Travaglia: There is so much to admire about the Denis Shapovalov game and he does have the look and feel of a player that could be challenging for the biggest prizes in the years to come. At 22 years old, however, there is room for improvement so Denis Shapovalov can take the next step in his development and the main task for the Canadian is getting more out of his return game.

The lack of experience on the clay courts would have hindered him early in his career, but Shapovalov has shown a liking for the surface over the last several months and is coming into this match off a very good win in the First Round. He is playing on consecutive days against an opponent who would have been rested, but that should not bother a young player like Shapovalov.

His return game has really been in good nick on the clay courts in 2020 and 2021 and over the last several months Denis Shapovalov has broken in 33% of return games played on the surface. That is considerably stronger than his numbers on the faster surfaces and I do think Shapovalov enjoys the extra time to really punch his groundstrokes through the court that he gets on the red dirt.

I do think Denis Shapovalov will want to get a bit more out of his own serve, but he should be pretty confident in getting his teeth into the Stefano Travaglia service games in this Second Round match. He won't want to underestimate the clay court specialist from Italy, but Travaglia had lost all four clay court matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents before beating Benoit Paire in the First Round.

The win over Paire doesn't prove anything considering how the Frenchman has approached this season, and Stefano Travaglia is going to see his serve tested having won just 62% of points played behind the serve on the clay courts over the last year. However that number dips under 60% when only considering matches played against top 100 Ranked opponents and the Italian has held serve in 71% of games played on the surface.

It will put some pressure on Stefano Travaglia's return game, although the Italian is someone who can get his teeth into games when returning and try and extract errors from his opponent. While I have to respect that, I do think the numbers show Denis Shapovalov has a considerable edge on both sides of the court in this match and I expect him to work through and earn a win and a cover in this match.

Denis Shapovalov reached the Semi Final here in Rome last Autumn and he will be under pressure to put some solid Ranking points on the board here, but I like the confidence of the Canadian and I think he will at least move through to the Third Round here.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Veronika Kudermetova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 1 Game @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rome Masters Update: 3-7, - 9.14 Units (20 Units Staked, - 45.70% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (May 11th)

The Rome Masters is beginning to move into the meat of the draw for the ATP Tournament being played here as some of the top Seeds return to the court on Tuesday.

There are some big matches in the WTA Tournament too on another busy day in the Italian capital as we begin the fast approach towards the French Open beginning at the end of the month.

Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Tommy Paul: Any time a player has won a couple of matches to earn their way through the Qualifiers into the main draw they should be respected as someone who has their eye in on the court and happy enough with the conditions. That is what Tommy Paul will be holding onto as he looks to make his way past a higher Ranked opponent in the First Round and the American has proved he is capable enough of performing on the clay courts.

Not many from the United States have really enjoyed the surface having grown up on the hard courts, but Tommy Paul has decent enough numbers. He only just missed out on direct entry into the Rome Masters main draw and Tommy Paul is close to breaking into the top 50 in the World Rankings for the first time.

Last week in Madrid Tommy Paul also took a set off of Andrey Rublev which will give him some confidence and he has solid, if unspectacular, numbers on the clay courts. The American doesn't have the best serve, but he makes up for that with decent returning and Paul will have learnt plenty from losing to Roberto Bautista Agut in the Monte Carlo Masters main draw.

On that day it was the edge that Roberto Bautista Agut had on the returning side of the game that helped him past Paul and I do think the return aspect is going to be very important to this match too.

Despite being very familiar with clay courts, Bautista Agut has produced his best tennis on the faster surfaces, although that is not to say he isn't a decent enough clay courter. The returning numbers are a little down from where we expect Roberto Bautista Agut to operate at, but those have been largely dented by John Isner in his win over the Spaniard in Madrid last week.

Roberto Bautista Agut has been slightly better at looking after his serve at key moments compared with Tommy Paul, but the real edge is the fact that the former has broken in 29% of return games played on the clay courts compared with Paul's 25% number. When only considering the matches against players Ranked within the top 100, Tommy Paul's number dips further to 21% and I do think the surface in Rome should be one on which the superior return player is able to exert the control on the outcome.

It could be a touch closer than the match in Monte Carlo if Tommy Paul can serve more first serves than he managed that day, but even then you would have to figure that Roberto Bautista Agut can eventually break down this opponent.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Taylor Fritz: There is little doubt that the focus for Novak Djokovic is finding his best form whenever a Grand Slam comes around and he made a decision to withdraw from the Madrid Masters last week. The World Number 1 and top Seed is back for the Rome Masters though and he is looking for a strong tournament after a couple of relatively poor performances by Novak Djokovic's own high standards.

He was surprisingly beaten very early on at the Monte Carlo Masters and was then ousted in the Belgrade Semi Final which means Novak Djokovic is just 3-2 on the clay courts in 2021. Novak Djokovic did win the Rome Masters last year and reached the Final of the French Open so there won't be too much panic, but you would feel this is an important tournament for him.

Novak Djokovic's three wins have come in largely one-sided fashion, but the two defeats will be a concern and there is definite room for improvement.

The opening match in Rome will come in the Second Round against Taylor Fritz who beat Daniel Evans in the First Round (Daniel Evans beat Novak Djokovic at the Monte Carlo Masters). That is a solid looking win for the American who has not been at his most comfortable on the clay courts and also ended a three match losing run for Taylor Fritz ahead of this huge challenge for him.

He will be confident having pushed Novak Djokovic all the way to a fifth set decider when these two players met at the Australian Open earlier this year, but that was on a surface that Taylor Fritz has enjoyed much more than the red dirt. The problem for Fritz is that he does not get through as many service games with the kind of ease he can on a hard court, and that puts a lot of pressure on a return game which is average at best.

There have been one or two signs of improvement from Taylor Fritz on the clay courts this season, but the numbers return to the kind of levels we expect of him when Fritz has faced top 100 or top 50 Ranked opponents.

It could take Novak Djokovic a bit of time to really find his best, but he has twice played Taylor Fritz on the clay courts and broken down the younger players tennis. Those clay court matches were played in 2019 and I am not sure there has been a significant enough improvement from Fritz in that time to avoid seeing Novak Djokovic pull away over the course of the match.

Novak Djokovic will want to improve his serve if he is going to challenge for the big clay titles left in 2021, but he has won 48% of return points played in the five matches he has competed in and broken in 44% of return games played. I expect that side of his tennis to put the pressure on Taylor Fritz and eventually break him down in this Second Round match.

Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: There was a medical timeout needed in the first set in his eventual three set win over Laslo Djere, but Pablo Carreno Busta didn't seem to be hindered and finished the match much stronger than he begun. He has had the Monday off to prepare himself for the Second Round at the Rome Masters which can only benefit Pablo Carreno Busta and I expect him to be ready for this match.

The Spaniard will take on a veteran in Kei Nishikori who was a comfortable winner over home favourite Fabio Fognini and the former top ten player was not overly taxed in that match. Injuries have really hurt Kei Nishikori over the last couple of seasons and he is still working his way back to his very best, but Nishikori is someone that has played some of his best tennis on the clay courts where he can get his groundstrokes going.

It has been something of a mixed season for Nishikori on the clay courts despite the 4-2 record and his numbers have backed that up- the serve has been erratic and he is holding in just 72% of service games played on the surface, but Kei Nishikori has been returning effectively enough to break in 30% of return games.

He is going to need to be stronger and more resilient behind serve if he is going to get the better of Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard has not always found his best tennis on the clay courts, which is a surprise, but he is holding 81% of service games played on the surface in 2021 and that is a significant edge over Kei Nishikori and especially when noting the break percentages are identical.

Losses to Casper Ruud, Rafael Nadal and Federico Delbonis on the red dirt is nothing to be ashamed about for Pablo Carreno Busta and I think he has all of the tennis needed to get the better of Kei Nishikori as he did at the Australian Open in February. Both players are strong returners, but it is the superior serving and backing up that shot that Pablo Carreno Busta has been able to put together compared with Kei Nishikori that could prove to be the difference between the two players on the day.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dusan Lajovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Rome Masters Update: 1-2, - 2.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 39% Yield)